Variant effect predictor correlation with functional assays is reflective of clinical classification performance
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Understanding the relationship between protein sequence and function is crucial for accurate classification of missense variants. Variant effect predictors (VEPs) play a vital role in deciphering this complex relationship, yet evaluating their performance remains challenging for several reasons, including data circularity, where the same or related data is used for training and assessment. High-throughput experimental strategies like deep mutational scanning (DMS) offer a promising solution. RESULTS: In this study, we extend upon our previous benchmarking approach, assessing the performance of 97 VEPs using missense DMS measurements from 36 different human proteins. In addition, a new pairwise, VEP-centric approach mitigates the impact of missing predictions on overall performance comparison. We observe a strong correspondence between VEP performance in DMS-based benchmarks and clinical variant classification, especially for predictors that have not been directly trained on human clinical variants. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that comparing VEP performance against diverse functional assays represents a reliable strategy for assessing their relative performance in clinical variant classification. However, major challenges in clinical interpretation of VEP scores persist, highlighting the need for further research to fully leverage computational predictors for genetic diagnosis. We also address practical considerations for end users in terms of choice of methodology.
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MAVEs generate large-scale, experimental datasets with low circularity for VEP validation.
“Importantly, MAVEs generate large-scale, experimental datasets with ‘low circularity’ (i.e. with minimal or no dependence on the data sources commonly used by VEPs) benchmark for VEP validation (29).”
From Massively parallel functional genomic assays in endocrinology: from promise to delivery (2026) · cites this paper as [29]
Problems with VEPs include overfitting towards existing clinical annotations.
“Problems with VEPs include overfitting towards existing clinical annotations (29), biased performance in populations underrepresented in sequencing data (30), and variable predictive performance across genes due to inadequate calibration of scores (31).”
From Massively parallel functional genomic assays in endocrinology: from promise to delivery (2026) · cites this paper as [29]
Many computational variant effect predictors (VEPs) have been described, with variable diagnostic performance.
“Many computational variant effect predictors (VEPs) have been described, with variable diagnostic performance.”
From Massively parallel functional genomic assays in endocrinology: from promise to delivery (2026) · cites this paper as [29]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Massively parallel functional genomic assays in endocrinology: from promise to delivery
Xu, J., Aslanzadeh, V., Kudla, G., & Semple, R. K. (2026) · Journal of Molecular Endocrinology · doi:10.1530/jme-25-0134
- Authors
- Livesey, B., & Marsh, J. A.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Joseph A. Marsh
- Venue
- Genome biology
- Published
- 2025-04-22
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 104-104
- ISSN
- 1465-6906 (ISSN-L)
- 1474-760X
- PMC
- PMC12016141
- OpenAlex
- W4409669254
- Cited by
- 50
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 6
- FWCI
- 25.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Genome biology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00035/9)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genomics and Rare Diseases
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Genomics and Phylogenetic Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cancer Research › Cancer Genomics and Diagnostics
- Keywords
- variant effect predictors, missense mutations, deep mutational scanning, functional assays, benchmarking, genetic diagnosis
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Computational Biology, Mutation, Missense
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