Assessment of the monthly risk of dirofilariosis infection in Europe and its projection to 2100 under climate change from a One Health perspective
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease primarily caused by the parasitic nematodes Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens. In Europe, the disease has expanded from traditionally endemic southern countries to central and northeastern regions, many of which are now also considered endemic. This study aimed to generate infection risk maps for dirofilariosis in Europe using ecoinformatic tools, at both annual and monthly scales, to serve as a prevention tool and contribute to more effective control of the disease, as well as helping to stop its spread. METHODS: A habitat suitability map was generated for the two most important and widely distributed culicid vectors in Europe (Culex pipiens and Aedes albopictus). This map was weighted with the number of D. immitis generations in the vectors, both annually and monthly. The resulting annual risk map was validated with georeferenced records of D. immitis- and D. repens-infected dogs and cats. In addition, a future habitat suitability projection for both vector species was performed for the year 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. RESULTS: Dirofilariosis infection risk in Europe is highest in southern countries, where favorable climatic conditions and increased vector activity coincide. Central Europe showed medium- to high-risk values, while northern latitudes exhibited low or very low risk, correlating with lower average temperatures. Of the geolocated infected animals, 35.9%, 51% and 13% were located in high-, medium-, or low-risk areas, respectively. Infection risk appears to be very limited during winter, restricted mainly to Mediterranean coastal areas, the Canary Islands (Spain), and Madeira (Portugal); while in spring/summer it becomes high in these places and moderate across other parts of the range such us central and northeastern Europe. The 2100 projection predicts a 161.6% increase in habitat suitability for the vectors, particularly in northeastern regions, high-altitude areas, and northernmost countries. CONCLUSIONS: The combined use of habitat suitability for Culex pipiens and Aedes albopictus and the number of Dirofilaria spp. generations allowed the development of a more comprehensive color-coded dirofilariosis infection risk map than previously available. Monthly infection risk maps across Europe could help guide targeted prevention and control measures, disrupt disease establishment in specific areas and seasons, and raise awareness about infection risks in both animals and humans.
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In the Balearic Islands, insularity, host density, and persistence of wetland environments may contribute to sustained transmission.
“Similarly, in the Balearic Islands, insularity, host density, and the persistence of wetland environments may contribute to sustained transmission, in agreement with recent seroprevalence studies from the area (3, 9, 25).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [3]
The Results (Annual infection risk map; page not provided) identify the Balearic Islands as a high-risk area, and the Discussion links European risk to water sources and human activity. The paper does not specifically attribute sustained transmission in the Balearics to insularity, host density, or persistent wetlands, nor does it report Balearic seroprevalence findings. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe interpretation is consistent with climate change projections for southern Europe, which predict increasing aridification and may favor the concentration of transmission in specific ecological niches where high temperatures and artificial water sources coexist.
“This interpretation is also consistent with climate change projections for southern Europe, which predict increasing aridification and may favor the concentration of transmission in specific ecological niches where high temperatures and artificial water sources coexist (3).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [3]
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Monitoring of Animal Dirofilariosis Incidence in Kharkiv Region of Ukraine
Paliy, А., Сумакова, Н. В., Павліченко, О. В., Palii, А. P., Решетило, О. І., Коваленко, Л. М., Grebenik, N. P., & Була, Л. В. (2022) · Zoodiversity · doi:10.15407/zoo2022.02.153 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Rodríguez-Escolar, I., Hernández‐Lambraño, R. E., Sánchez‐Agudo, J. Á., Collado-Cuadrado, M., Savić, S., Žekić, M., Marčić, D., & Morchón, R. (2024) · Frontiers in Veterinary Science · doi:10.3389/fvets.2024.1352236 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationKuyucu, A. C., & Hekimoğlu, O. (2024) · Parasitology · doi:10.1017/s003118202400132x · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ferrara, M. C., Maglione, R., Ciccarelli, D., Mundis, S. J., Loria, A. D., de Carvalho, M. P., & Santoro, D. (2022) · Journal of Helminthology · doi:10.1017/s0022149x22000062 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Bozorgomid, F., Youssefi, F., Hassanpour, G., et al. (2025) · Transboundary and Emerging Diseases · doi:10.1155/tbed/9518371 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Esteves-Guimarães, J., Montoya-Alonso, J. A., Matos, J. I., Ramalheira, E., Carretón, E., Rodríguez-Escolar, I., la Puente, A. B., Collado-Cuadrado, M., Morchón, R., & Fontes-Sousa, A. P. (2025) · Animals · doi:10.3390/ani15070952 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [67]Kosić SL, Simin S, Lalosevic S, Lalošević V, Lalošević D, Kuruca L, Nikolć S, Nerac D. Updating the prevalence of canine dirofilariosis in pet dogs in Novi Sad, Vojvodina, Serbia. Contemporary Agriculture. 2014;63:487–493. UDC: 636.09:569.74.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Morchón, R., Balmori-de la Puente, A., Infante González-Mohino, E., Esteves-Guimarães, J., Busquets, P., Fontes-Sousa, A. P., Carretón, E., & Montoya-Alonso, J. A. (2026) · Frontiers in Veterinary Science · doi:10.3389/fvets.2026.1812406 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Rodríguez-Escolar, I., Balmori-de la Puente, A., Infante González-Mohino, E., Collado-Cuadrado, M., Carretón, E., Montoya-Alonso, J. A., & Morchón, R.
- Affiliations
- Universidad de Salamanca (ES)
- Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Morchón, Rodrigo
- ORCID
- Venue
- Parasites & Vectors
- Published
- 2025-11-27
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 516-516
- ISSN
- 1756-3305 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC12751232
- OpenAlex
- W4416765524
- Cited by
- 9
- References
- 82
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9
- FWCI
- 6.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Parasites & Vectors (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Acceda (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Parasitic Diseases Research and Treatment
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Vector-Borne Animal Diseases
- Keywords
- dirofilariasis, Dirofilaria immitis, Dirofilaria repens, infection risk mapping, climate change projections, Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, habitat suitability, One Health, RCP8.5, disease spread, dogs and cats, Europe, Mediterranean coast
- MeSH terms
- One Health, Aedes, Animals, Cat Diseases, Cats, Culex, Dirofilaria immitis, Dirofilariasis, Dog Diseases, Dogs, Europe, Insect Vectors, Ecosystem, Risk Assessment, Climate Change, Dirofilaria repens
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