Assessment heartworm disease in the Canary Islands (Spain): risk of transmission in a hyperendemic area by ecological niche modeling and its future projection
Open accessAbstract
Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Dirofilaria immitis. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, Culex theileri has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of D. immitis. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with D. immitis were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by Culex spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.
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In the Canary Islands, elevated infection risk may be related to geomorphological and climatic conditions that can favor year-round transmission.
“In the Canary Islands, the elevated infection risk, together with the number and distribution of infected animals, may be related to the particular geomorphological and climatic conditions of the archipelago, which can favor year-round transmission (8, 24).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [8]
The Discussion (page unavailable) links high infection risk in parts of the Canary Islands to humidity, temperature, altitude, and mosquito-breeding habitats; the Conclusions also predict high risk across almost all islands except higher-altitude areas. The Study Area Description reports mild temperatures all year, but the cited passages do not establish that transmission can occur year-round. The paper’s statement that larval development can occur throughout most of the islands describes geography, not the duration of transmission. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAge is not necessarily associated with a greater risk of infection per unit of time, but prevalence tends to increase with host age, most likely reflecting cumulative exposure over time in endemic areas.
“Likewise, although age is not necessarily associated with a greater risk of infection per unit of time, prevalence tends to increase with host age, most likely reflecting cumulative exposure over time in endemic areas (4, 5, 8–13).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [8]
The Results (§3.3) map transmission risk by location, and the Introduction (§1) reports prevalence by island, but neither addresses prevalence by host age or cumulative exposure. Searches for age-related prevalence and infection risk per unit of time found no relevant passage in our copy. Page numbers were not available. (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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- Authors
- Morchón, R., Rodríguez-Escolar, I., Lambraño, R. E. H., Agudo, J. Á. S., Montoya-Alonso, J. A., Serafín-Pérez, I., Fernández-Serafín, C., & Carretón, E.
- Affiliations
- Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ES)
- Universidad de Salamanca (ES)
- Biodiversity, Human Diversity and Conservation Biology Research Group, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
- Universidad de La Laguna (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Morchón, Rodrigo
- Rodríguez-Escolar, Iván
- ORCID
- Venue
- Animals
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2023-10-18
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 20
- Pages
- 3251
- ISSN
- 2076-2615 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10603702
- OpenAlex
- W4387744363
- Cited by
- 19
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9
- FWCI
- 3.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Animals (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Acceda (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- CEVA Salud Animal S.A. (EDU/556/2019)
- General Foundation of University of Salamanca (EDU/556/2019)
- Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León (EDU/556/2019)
- Fondo Social Europeo (EDU/556/2019)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Parasitic Diseases Research and Treatment
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Health Sciences › Veterinary › Small Animals › Helminth infection and control
- Keywords
- heartworm disease, Dirofilaria immitis, Culex theileri, canine dirofilariasis, ecological niche modeling, hyperendemic area, Canary Islands, climate change projections, vector distribution, habitat suitability, disease prevention and control
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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