Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain
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Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important human-activity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission.
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Aedes albopictus and Cx. pipiens are recognised vectors of heartworm.
“Among the mosquito species that best adapt to these kinds of changes are Aedes albopictus and Cx. pipiens, which are recognised vectors of heartworm”
From Expansion of canine heartworm in Spain (2022) · cites this paper as [40]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Gangoso, L., Aragonés, D., Martínez-de la Puente, J., Lucientes, J., Delacour-Estrella, S., Estrada Peña, R., Montalvo, T., Bueno-Marí, R., Bravo-Barriga, D., Frontera, E., Marqués, E., Ruiz-Arrondo, I., Muñoz, A., Oteo, J. A., Miranda, M. A., Barceló, C., Arias Vázquez, M. S., Silva-Torres, M. I., Ferraguti, M., Magallanes, S., Muriel, J., Marzal, A., Aranda, C., Ruiz, S., González, M. A., Morchón, R., Gómez-Barroso, D., & Figuerola, J.
- Affiliations
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (ES)
- Universidad de Extremadura (ES)
- Hospital San Pedro (ES)
- Universitat de les Illes Balears (ES)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (ES)
- Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ES)
- Universidad de Salamanca (ES)
- Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES)
- Corresponding author
- Gangoso, L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-09
- Volume
- 188
- Pages
- 109837
- ISSN
- 0013-9351 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3037602362
- Cited by
- 67
- References
- 110
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 6.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Environmental Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IRTA (Institut de Recerca i Tecnologia Agroalimentaries) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RISalud Institutional Health Repository of Andalucía (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- Hispana (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Zaguan (University of Zaragoza Repository) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Junta de Extremadura (IB16135, IB16121, PI18/00850)
- European Regional Development Fund
- European Social Fund (FJCI-2017-34394)
- Universidad de Extremadura
- European Commission
- Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades
- Instituto de Salud Carlos III
- Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- Culex pipiens, West Nile virus, mosquito vector distribution, habitat suitability, species distribution modeling, bioclimatic predictors, altitude, urbanization, seasonal temperature variation, climate change impacts, Spain
- MeSH terms
- Mosquito Vectors, Animals, Culex, Humans, Spain, West Nile Fever, West Nile virus, Ecosystem
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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