Changing climate and changing vector-borne disease distribution: the example of Dirofilaria in Europe
Abstract
Climatic changes, together with an increase in the movement of dogs across Europe, have caused an increase in the geographical range of Dirofilaria infections. The present paper is focuses on northeastern European countries, where survey data have shown an increase of Dirofilaria repens infections both in animals and humans. A growing degree day-based forecast model has been developed to predict the occurrence. The model is based on evidence that there is a threshold of 14 °C below which Dirofilaria development will not proceed in mosquitoes, there is a requirement of 130 growing degree-days (GDDs) for larvae to reach infectivity, and there is a maximum life expectancy of 30 days for a mosquito vector. The output of this model predicted that the summer temperatures (with peaks in August) are sufficient to facilitate extrinsic incubation of Dirofilaria even at latitudes of 56 °N and longitudes of 39 °E. Despite the fact that both Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens have the same temperature requirement for extrinsic incubation in mosquitoes, empirical data has shown that D. repens is the main cause of dirofilarial infections in both humans and animals. Clinical signs are absent in most canine infections with D. repens. Furthermore, diagnosis is problematic and in-clinic serological tests, such as those for D. immitis, do not exist. Therefore, most infections go undiagnosed, allowing the infection to spread undetected.
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Urban heat islands may provide thermal conditions required for D. immitis to complete larval development to the infective L3 stage even in regions where the general climate would otherwise be less favorable, provided suitable small-scale mosquito breeding sites are present.
“For example, urban heat islands may provide the thermal conditions required for D. immitis to complete larval development to the infective L3 stage, even in regions where the general climate would otherwise be less favorable, provided that suitable small-scale mosquito breeding sites are also present (6).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Few studies have jointly examined additional host and environmental variables-such as age, sex, breed, or habitat-in relation to realized transmission risk.
“Despite the substantial body of knowledge on the epidemiology of D. immitis in Spain and Portugal, few studies have jointly examined additional host and environmental variables—such as age, sex, breed, or habitat—in relation to realized transmission risk (6, 7).”
From Deciphering the socio-environmental factors associated with realized heartworm transmission risk in dogs from Portugal and Spain (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
More optimal conditions created by temperature increases allow the spread of mosquitoes to other areas where previously climatic conditions prevented their presence.
“This has led to the creation of more optimal conditions that allow the spread of mosquitoes to other areas where previously the climatic conditions prevented their presence [1,55,78,166,167].”
From What has happened to heartworm disease in Europe in the last 10 years? (2022) · cites this paper as [167]
Considering that larval development does not occur below the threshold temperature of around 14 °C, a high risk of D. immitis infection was estimated in southern Spain and Portugal, some areas of southern France, Corsica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey, Cyprus, the coast of Albania, several regions of northern and southern Italy, Naples, Sardinia and Sicily, Greece, some areas of Bulgaria, south-e
“Moreover, considering that larval development does not occur below the threshold temperature of around 14 °C, the number of heartworm generations was determined and a high risk of infection was estimated in southern Spain and Portugal, some areas of southern France, Corsica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey, Cyprus, the coast of Albania, several regions of northern and southern Italy, Naples, Sard”
From What has happened to heartworm disease in Europe in the last 10 years? (2022) · cites this paper as [167]
GIS studies across the whole continent showed that when climate data collected at weather stations in a given area were favourable for mosquito development, positive dogs were found in those same locations.
“Furthermore, studies based on GIS carried out in the whole continent [167] showed that when climate data collected at several weather stations in a given area were favourable for the development of mosquitoes, a presence of positive dogs was found in those same locations.”
From What has happened to heartworm disease in Europe in the last 10 years? (2022) · cites this paper as [167]
Continuous globalisation and climate warming will probably lead to a further spread and increased circulation of D. immitis and D. repens in the future.
“Continuous globalisation and climate warming will probably lead to a further spread and increased circulation in the future.”
From Vectors, host range, and spatial distribution of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in Europe: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [73]
Dirofilaria repens infections are often asymptomatic in dogs, which might lead to a longer time period where a dog is infective.
“Additionally, D. repens infections are often asymptomatic in dogs which might lead to a longer time period where a dog is infective, and a mosquito can ingest and transmit the parasite to further hosts [6, 73].”
From Vectors, host range, and spatial distribution of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens in Europe: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [73]
Global warming is regarded as a key factor involved in the spreading of Dirofilaria spp., as it enhances the development of these filarioids inside mosquitoes.
“Global warming is regarded as a key factor involved in the spreading of Dirofilaria spp., as it enhances the development of these filarioids inside mosquitoes [9,28].”
From Dirofilaria spp. and Angiostrongylus vasorum: current risk of spreading in Central and Northern Europe. (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
Sardinia has the environmental, climatic and human activities (e.g., tourism with animal transportation) that could allow these nematodes to spread.
“Specifically, Sardinia has the environmental, climatic and human activities (e.g. tourism with animal transportation) that could allow these nematodes to spread [5, 30].”
From Leishmania infantum and Dirofilaria immitis infections in Italy, 2009–2019: Changing distribution patterns (2020) · cites this paper as [5]
A major hindrance of this study could be that the anamnesis of animals was not available (e.g., their travelling history from/to historically endemic areas for both diseases).
“Conversely, a major hindrance of this study could be that the anamnesis of animals was not available (e.g. their travelling history from/to historically endemic areas for both diseases) [5, 22].”
From Leishmania infantum and Dirofilaria immitis infections in Italy, 2009–2019: Changing distribution patterns (2020) · cites this paper as [5]
Vectors and pathogens could expand or re-emerge due to climate change.
“Vectors (e.g. Aedes albopictus) and pathogens (e.g. Leishmania infantum, D. immitis) could expand or (re-)emerge due to climate change [12–15].”
From Prevalence and risk factors for selected canine vector-borne diseases in Greece (2019) · cites this paper as [15]
The recorded distribution of Dirofilaria prevalence in northern and southern areas of Greece is contradictory to what is expected based on DDU-based forecast models and Linear Kriging interpolation.
“Thus, the recorded distribution of Dirofilaria prevalence in northern and southern areas of Greece is contradictory to what is expected based on the models mentioned above, and requires further attempts to explain.”
From Dirofilaria infections in dogs in different areas of Greece (2016) · cites this paper as [15]
D. immitis can be introduced to non-endemic countries by dogs with a travel history to endemic regions and by dogs imported from endemic countries.
“The parasite can be introduced to non-endemic countries by dogs with a travel history to endemic regions, as well as dogs imported from endemic countries [2,3].”
From The Incidence of Dirofilaria immitis in Shelter Dogs and Mosquitoes in Austria (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
Dogs with a travel history to endemic regions, as well as dogs imported from endemic countries, can introduce D. immitis to non-endemic countries.
“Dogs with a travel history to endemic regions, as well as dogs imported from endemic countries, can introduce the parasite to non-endemic countries.”
From The Incidence of Dirofilaria immitis in Shelter Dogs and Mosquitoes in Austria (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
Dogs with a travel history to endemic regions or imported from endemic countries are of particular epidemiological interest.
“Therefore, these dogs are of particular epidemiological interest [2,3].”
From The Incidence of Dirofilaria immitis in Shelter Dogs and Mosquitoes in Austria (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
Both the heartworm predictive model (based on growing degree days) and the Dirofilaria development units show parts of Central Europe suitable for the establishment of these parasites.
“Both the heartworm predictive model (based on growing degree days) and the Dirofilaria development units show parts of Central Europe suitable for the establishment of these parasites [28].”
From Dirofilaria spp. and Angiostrongylus vasorum: current risk of spreading in Central and Northern Europe. (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
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- Authors
- Genchi, C., Mortarino, M., Rinaldi, L., Cringoli, G., Traldi, G., & Genchi, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Milan (IT)
- University of Naples Federico II (IT)
- University of Pavia (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Genchi, Claudio
- Venue
- Veterinary Parasitology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2011-03
- Volume
- 176
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 295-299
- ISSN
- 0304-4017 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2078996770
- Semantic Scholar
- f1434d576502ebfcca259d8a26068b92a124bf84
- Cited by
- 209
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 7.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Veterinary Parasitology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Parasitic Diseases Research and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Veterinary › Small Animals › Helminth infection and control
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- Dirofilaria repens, Dirofilaria immitis, climate change, vector-borne diseases, geographical range expansion, growing-degree-day model, extrinsic incubation, mosquito vectors, canine heartworm disease, human dirofilariasis, undiagnosed infection, serological diagnosis, Northeastern Europe
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Dirofilaria, Dirofilariasis, Dog Diseases, Dogs, Europe, Forecasting, Humans, Insect Vectors, Models, Biological, Culicidae, Seasons, Temperature, Time Factors, Travel, Zoonoses, Geographic Information Systems, Climate Change
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