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Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVES: To provide updated estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. METHODS: Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were calculated from a longitudinal, population-based study including substantial numbers of both black and white participants. Incidence probabilities for single year of age, race, and level of education were calculated using weighted logistic regression and AD dementia diagnosis from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations of 1,913 people obtained from stratified random samples of previously disease-free individuals in a population of 10,800. These were combined with US mortality, education, and new US Census Bureau estimates of current and future population to estimate current and future numbers of people with AD dementia in the United States. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2010, there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0-5.5). Of these, 0.7 million (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) were between 65 and 74 years, 2.3 million were between 75 and 84 years (95% CI = 1.7-2.9), and 1.8 million were 85 years or older (95% CI = 1.4-2.2). The total number of people with AD dementia in 2050 is projected to be 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older. CONCLUSION: The number of people in the United States with AD dementia will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.
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“As the U.S. population ages, the number of people with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) is rapidly increasing,1,2”
From Review of Artificial Intelligence for Clinical Use in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (2026) · cites this paper as [1]
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“Sex is an important factor that contributes to the clinical and biological heterogeneities in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)”
From Sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease pathology (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
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“The aging of the baby-boom generation will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's.70”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [70]
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“The aging of the population, including the baby‐boom generation, will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [78]
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“Of all AD patients in the United States, around two-thirds are women [2].”
From Sex specific molecular networks and key drivers of Alzheimer’s disease (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
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“Almost two-thirds of AD patients in the U.S. are women [2]”
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“10,12 Three of our four indicators were the presence of at least one ADRD code (Table 1): (1) 1 year ago (0–365 days), (2) 2 years ago (366–730 days), TABLE 1 Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Hebert, L. E., Weuve, J., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Rush University (US)
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2013-05-07
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1778-1783
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- PMC
- PMC3719424
- OpenAlex
- W2071068165
- Cited by
- 2,642
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 192 · 2023: 167 · 2022: 242 · 2021: 312 · 2020: 317 · 2019: 232 · 2018: 210 · 2017: 212 · 2016: 217 · 2015: 160 · 2014: 129 · 2013: 47
- FWCI
- 131.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Alzheimer's Association
- National Institutes of Health (AG011101)
- National Institute on Aging (RC2AG036650, U01AG012505, R01AG030146, AG011101, R01AG011101, P30AG010161, R01AG021972, R01AG009966)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL084209)
- National Institute of Nursing Research (R01NR009543, R01NR010211)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R21ES020404, R01ES010902, R21ES019712)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, dementia prevalence, population projections, older adults, age-specific prevalence, racial differences, educational attainment, population aging, United States
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Surveillance, United States, Incidence, Censuses
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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