Cited by 2,642Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchAlzheimer's disease research and treatmentsInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

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Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census

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Hebert, Liesi E., Weuve, Jennifer, Scherr, Paul A., Evans, Denis A.·2013·Neurology

DOI 10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828726f5PMC PMC3719424

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To provide updated estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. METHODS: Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were calculated from a longitudinal, population-based study including substantial numbers of both black and white participants. Incidence probabilities for single year of age, race, and level of education were calculated using weighted logistic regression and AD dementia diagnosis from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations of 1,913 people obtained from stratified random samples of previously disease-free individuals in a population of 10,800. These were combined with US mortality, education, and new US Census Bureau estimates of current and future population to estimate current and future numbers of people with AD dementia in the United States. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2010, there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0-5.5). Of these, 0.7 million (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) were between 65 and 74 years, 2.3 million were between 75 and 84 years (95% CI = 1.7-2.9), and 1.8 million were 85 years or older (95% CI = 1.4-2.2). The total number of people with AD dementia in 2050 is projected to be 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older. CONCLUSION: The number of people in the United States with AD dementia will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.

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Authors: Hebert, L. E., Weuve, J., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A.
Affiliations: Rush University (US)
ORCID: Weuve, Jennifer
Evans, Denis A.
Venue: Neurology
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Published: 2013-05-07
Volume: 80
Issue: 19
Pages: 1778-1783
ISSN: 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
1526-632X
DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828726f5
PMC: PMC3719424
OpenAlex: W2071068165
Cited by: 2,642
References: 19
Citations by year: 2026: 81 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 192 · 2023: 167 · 2022: 242 · 2021: 312 · 2020: 317 · 2019: 232 · 2018: 210 · 2017: 212 · 2016: 217 · 2015: 160 · 2014: 129 · 2013: 47
FWCI: 131.30
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Neurology (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Alzheimer's Association
National Institutes of Health (AG011101)
National Institute on Aging (RC2AG036650, U01AG012505, R01AG030146, AG011101, R01AG011101, P30AG010161, R01AG021972, R01AG009966)
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL084209)
National Institute of Nursing Research (R01NR009543, R01NR010211)
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R21ES020404, R01ES010902, R21ES019712)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, dementia prevalence, population projections, older adults, age-specific prevalence, racial differences, educational attainment, population aging, United States
MeSH terms: Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Surveillance, United States, Incidence, Censuses

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Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census

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