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The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa
Open accessAbstract
We explore the consequences of ethnic partitioning, a neglected aspect of the Scramble for Africa, and uncover the following. First, apart from the land mass and water bodies, split and non-split groups are similar across several dimensions. Second, the incidence, severity, and duration of political violence are all higher for partitioned homelands which also experience frequent military interventions from neighboring countries. Third, split groups are often entangled in a vicious circle of government-led discrimination and ethnic wars. Fourth, respondents from survey data identifying with split ethnicities are economically disadvantaged. The evidence highlights the detrimental repercussions of the colonial border design. (JEL D72, D74, F51, J15, O15, O17, Z13)
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“The cell fixed effects α s i capture all time-invariant determinants of conflict, such as geography, national boundaries, historical factors, and ethnic traits (e.g., Besley and Reynal-Querol, 2014, Michalopoulos and Papaioannou, 2016, Moscona et al., 2020).”
From Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa (2025) · cites this paper as Michalopoulos and Papaioannou, 2016
In the citing paper
“In Africa, homelands that were partitioned during the colonial period suffer from more political violence today than non-partitioned homelands, even controlling for multiple other factors (Michalopoulos and Papaionnou 2016).”
From Reverberations of Empire: How the Colonial Past Shapes the Present (2024) · cites this paper as Michalopoulos and Papaionnou 2016
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Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas
Bertinelli, L., Cömertpay, R., & Maystadt, J.-F. (2024) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393 · Cited by 11
Francis, J., & Mugabo, L. (2024) · Journal of Public Policy & Marketing · doi:10.1177/07439156241288820 · Cited by 7
“Empirical fi ndings show that the likelihood, intensity, duration, and casualties of civil con fl ict are higher in places with partitioned ethnicities, with split groups having a destabilizing impact across borders (Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016).”
InfluentialThe Future Is History: Restorative Nationalism and Conflict in Post-Napoleonic Europe
Cederman, L.-E., Pengl, Y. I., Girardin, L., & Müller-Crepon, C. (2024) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818324000122 · Cited by 7
“For relevant arguments in an African context, see Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016; Paine 2019.”
Political Conflict and Development Dynamics: Economic Legacies of the Cultural Revolution
Bai, L., & Wu, L. (2023) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050723000384 · Cited by 17
The Economic Approach to Political Borders
Spolaore, E. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4312047 · Cited by 7
Questioning territories and identities in the precolonial (nineteenth-century) Lake Kivu region
Mathys, G. (2021) · Africa · doi:10.1017/s0001972021000267 · Cited by 7
“2011; Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016).”
The Indigenous Roots of Representative DemocracyPreprint
Bentzen, J., Hariri, J. G., & Robinson, J. A. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2553916 · Cited by 1
Liang, Y., Fu, J., Teng, X.-F., & Qu, X. (2026) · China economic review · doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102642 · Cited by 6
Analysing narratives of free movement of persons in West Africa
Bisong, A. (2025) · Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · doi:10.1080/1369183x.2025.2544080 · Cited by 6
“Some regard these borders as vestiges of colonialism that should be replaced with precolonial zones of exchange or removed to ensure outright decolonisation (Mbembe 2018; Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016).”
Identity Conflict, Ethnocentrism and Social Cohesion
Sestito, M. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4366354 · Cited by 6
Thakur-Wernz, P., Barnard, H., & Matthee, M. (2024) · Journal of International Business Policy · doi:10.1057/s42214-024-00188-1 · Cited by 6
Nationalism and the transformation of the state
Cederman, L. (2024) · Nations and Nationalism · doi:10.1111/nana.13035 · Cited by 6
“Along similar lines, Michalopoulos and Papaioannou (2016) find that such groups are also more likely to experience civil conflict.”
Slave trades, kinship structures and women's political participation in Africa
Walters, L., Chisadza, C., & Clance, M. W. (2024) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12384 · Cited by 9
Giant oil discoveries and conflicts
Chisadza, C., Clance, M. W., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. (2019) · Environment, Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-023-03270-5 · Cited by 6
The Management of Aid and Conflict in Africa
Moscona, J. (2025) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4575081 · Cited by 5
“Natural resource presence has dynamic effects on conflict onset and escalation (e.g. Humphreys, 2005; Weinstein, 2006; Ross, 2004, 2006) and arbitrary national boundaries play a particularly important role in African conflict (Michalopoulos and Papaioannou, 2016).”
City size distribution of African countries: A spatial analysis using geospatial data
Appiah-Kubi, M., & Gyambibi, F. A. (2025) · Cities · doi:10.1016/j.cities.2025.105808 · Cited by 5
Towards equitable evaluation through the use of the African Evaluation Principles
Sibanda, A., Sibanda, T., & Sibanda, T. (2023) · African Evaluation Journal · doi:10.4102/aej.v11i1.697 · Cited by 5
Accountability failure in isolated areas: The cost of remoteness from the capital city
Provenzano, S. (2023) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103214 · Cited by 10
Nationalism and the Puzzle of Reversing State Size
Cederman, L.-E., Girardin, L., & Müller-Crepon, C. (2023) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2023.a908773 · Cited by 5
“In the European sample, the measurement of territorial fractionalization assumes that the dominant group is the largest 85 See, e.g., Michalopoulos and Papaioannou 2016.”
BackgroundThe long-term welfare effects of colonial institutions: Evidence from Central India
Colleoni, M. (2023) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103170 · Cited by 10
Discovering the mesoscale for chains of conflict
Kushwaha, N., & Lee, E. D. (2022) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad228 · Cited by 5
“Generally, heuristics are used to group events together using properties like involved actors (7), geographical boundaries (8), administrative boundaries (9), or ethnic divisions (10).”
Ancient colonialism and the economic geography of the Mediterranean
Chronopoulos, D. K., Kampanelis, S., Oto‐Peralías, D., & Wilson, J. O. S. (2017) · Journal of Economic Geography · doi:10.1093/jeg/lbaa028 · Cited by 16
Ancestral Norms, Legal Origins, and Female EmpowermentPreprint
Brodeur, A., Mabeu, M. C., & Pongou, R. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3568310 · Cited by 7
“…and how this effect depends on traditional norms of gender roles, we follow the approach of Michalopoulos and Papaioannou (2014) and exploit the fact that colonists partitioned several ethnic groups into adjacent countries with different formal institutions (Michalopoulos and Papaioannou (2016)).”
Influential
Metadata
- Authors
- Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E.
- Affiliations
- Center for Economic and Policy Research (US)
- Centre for Economic Policy Research (GB)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2016-07-01
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1802-1848
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3122296048
- Cited by
- 424
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 13
- FWCI
- 89.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/L011719/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Development › Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- Scramble for Africa, political violence, ethnic war, military intervention, economic disadvantage
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