The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

According to Ashenfelter, Hosken and Weinberg (2013), Whirlpool and Maytag together pre-merger accounted for 60 percent of total revenue for washing machines and 65 percent for clothes dryers.

“according to research on the effects of this merger in Ashenfelter, Hosken and Weinberg (2013), Whirlpool and Maytag together (pre-merger) accounted for 60 percent of total revenue for washing machines, and 65 percent for clothes dryers.”

• cites Ashenfelter, Hosken and Weinberg (2013) sourceCould not verify

  The available Web Appendix passages describe product characteristics used as controls for washers and dryers; they do not give pre-merger revenue shares. Searches for the claimed 60 percent and 65 percent figures and for combined market shares returned no passage addressing those figures. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Large firms respond to competitors' cost changes induced by exchange rate changes.

“Using Belgian manufacturing data, Amiti, Itskhoki and Konings (2016) document that large firms respond to competitors cost changes induced by exchange rate changes.”

• cites Amiti, Itskhoki and Konings (2016) sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

After the tariffs, US washer imports dropped sharply in February and March 2018, then increased through September 2018 just before the 1.2 million unit quota was hit and the duty rose to 50%.

“Imports subsequently fell sharply in February and March of 2018, rising again through September 2018 just before the quota limit of 1.2 million imported units was reached and subsequent tariffs rose to 50 percent.”

May combine two claims.

The CPI for laundry equipment jumped in the months following the section 201 safeguard tariffs and was up by about 9 percent by February 2019.

“Conversely, the index jumped in the months following the section 201 safeguard tariffs and was up by about 9 percent by February 2019.”

May combine two claims.

In February 2012, the USITC issued a ruling recommending antidumping measures; in July 2012, the Commerce Department announced import duties ranging from 9.2 to 82.4 percent on several firms.

“In February 2012, the USITC issued a ruling that recommended antidumping measures; in July of that year, the Commerce Department announced import duties ranging from 9.2 to 82.4 percent on several firms (Department of Commerce (2012)).”

• cites Department of Commerce (2012)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

For the 2018 tariffs on washers, after accounting for dryers and domestic brand price increases, the estimated tariff elasticity of consumer prices is between 110 and 230 percent, or between 107 and 226 percent in the introduction.

“Factoring in the effect of dryers and price increases by domestic brands, our estimates for the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of between 110 and 230 percent.”

• Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · hedged

  “We find a much higher tariff elasticity of consumer prices for the global 2018 safeguard tariffs; once accounting for the effect on dryers prices, our estimates imply a pass-through to consumer prices of these safeguard tariffs of between 107 and 226 percent.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The washer quota limit was reached on October 22, 2018.

“According to Commodity Status Reports published by the U.S. Customs Bureau, the quota limit on washers was reached on October 22, 2018.”

May combine two claims.

Exports of washing machine parts to China jumped in 2013 and 2014 before falling back in 2016 and 2017 as exports of parts to Thailand and Vietnam rose.

“Exports of parts to China jump in 2013 and 2014 before falling back in 2016 and 2017 as exports of parts to Thailand and Vietnam rise.”

May combine two claims.

The 2012 and 2016 antidumping duties shifted production to other countries while keeping the overall magnitude of U.S. imports roughly the same.

“The result of these antidumping duties, first on Mexican/Korean production in 2012 and later on Chinese production in 2016, was a shift in production to other countries while keeping the overall magnitude of U.S. imports roughly the same.”

May combine two claims.

In February 2016, the USITC issued a ruling in favor of antidumping measures, and final antidumping duties announced by the Commerce Department ranged from 38.4 percent for LG to 57.4 percent for Samsung.

“In February 2016, the USITC issued another ruling in favor of antidumping measures, and final antidumping duties announced by the Commerce Deparmtent ranged from 38.4 percent (LG) to 57.4 percent (Samsung) (Department of Commerce (2016)).”

• cites Department of Commerce (2016)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

In the 12 months following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, the CPI for laundry equipment declined by about 5 percent and continued falling thereafter.

“In the 12 months following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, the CPI for laundry equipment actually declined by about 5 percent and continued falling thereafter.”

May combine two claims.

In response to the 2012 antidumping duties, unit values of imported washers from Korea were either flat or increasing, but domestic prices in the United States fell as foreign production relocated to China.

“For example, we find either flat or increasing unit values of imported washers from Korea in response to the antidumping duties in 2012, but domestic prices in the United States fell as foreign production relocated to China.”

May combine two claims.

Overall Korean washing machine parts exports rose nearly 60 percent between 2010 and 2016, consistent with reduced parts used in Korea for washing machine production for export.

“In addition, overall Korean washing machine parts exports (not shown) rise nearly 60 percent between 2010 and 2016, a fact consistent with the reduced amount of parts used in Korea for washing machine production for export.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The five national retailers-JC Penney, Best Buy, Lowes, Sears, and Home Depot-account for over 50% of observations in the data.

“which together account for more than 50 percent of the observations in the data.”

May combine two claims.

Maytag raised washer prices about 14% and dryer prices 17% to 20%.

“Maytag raised washer prices by about 14 percent and dryer prices between 17 to 20 percent.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

Dryers, which were not subject to tariffs during the period, experienced price changes nearly identical to those of washers, both in aggregate and for each brand separately.

“A surprising feature of the results presented in section 4.2 is that dryers-excluded from any tariffs during this period-experienced price changes that were nearly identical to that of washers.This is true in the aggregate (Figure 1) as well as for each brand separately (Table 2).”

May combine two claims.

Using median pre-period prices of 749 USD for washers and 809 USD for dryers, the tariff-attributable increases were 86 USD per washer and 92 USD per dryer.

“Multiplying these estimates by the median pre-period price of washers (749 USD per unit) and dryers (809 USD per unit) yields the dollar increase in price attributable to these tariffs on washers and dryers was 86 USD per unit and 92 USD per unit, respectively.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

The Section 201 safeguard elasticity estimates are 1.25 to 2.26 using the trade-weighted average tariff increase, or 0.57 to 1.07 using only the maximum possible rate.

“Finally, the estimates for the section 201 safeguard tariffs are considerably higher: 1.25 to 2.26 using the trade weighted average tariff increase, or 0.57 to 1.07 if we only use the maximum possible rate.”

May combine two claims.

LG raised prices by 8% over four months and about 13% over eight months for both washers and dryers.

“LG raised prices over four months by eight percent and over 8 months by about 13 percent for both washers and dryers.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

The Pearson rank correlation of sales between a brand's washers and dryers at a given retailer is high, between 0.9 and 0.95, and is typically lower, between 0.3 and 0.9, for other appliance pairs.

“As shown in Appendix Figure A7, the Pearson rank correlation of sales for a brand's washer and dryers at a given retailer is quite high, 0.9 to 0.95, depending on the retailer, and typically lower, 0.3 to 0.9, for other appliances pairs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Refrigerator prices appeared to grow differently from range prices before and after July 2016.

“For example, it appears that refrigerator prices (Figure 5a) were growing differentially from ranges before and after July 2016.”

May combine two claims.

For ranges, Chinese imports were about 10%, implying an effective tariff increase below one percentage point.

“For ranges, the Chinese import share was about 10 percent, and hence the increase in the effective tariff rate was less than one percentage point.”

May combine two claims.

From July 2014 to January 2018, Gap Intelligence data show washer prices falling about 20% and dryer prices falling about 7%.

“For example, from July 2014 to January 2018 (shortly before the introduction of the safeguard tariffs in February 2018), the Gap Intelligence data suggests a decline in washer prices of about 20 percent and a decline in the price of dryers of about 7 percent.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

Replicating the baseline for all brands, brick-and-mortar retailers, and store-count weights yields robust results, with both China antidumping and safeguard price effects somewhat larger.

“Appendix Table A9 replicates our baseline results from Table 1 but for all brands, brick-and-mortar retailers, and where each retailer receives a weight corresponding to the number of brick-and-mortar stores in the U.S. The results are robust, with the price effect of both the China antidumping and Safeguard tariffs increasing somewhat”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

Samsung raised washer prices by 15% to 17% and dryer prices by about 10%.

“Samsung increased prices by 15 to 17 percent for washers and about 10 percent for dryers.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

The estimate for the 2012 Korea/Mexico antidumping duties indicates a decline in prices and therefore a negative elasticity.

“Our suggestive estimate for the 2012 antidumping duties against Korea and Mexico indicates a decline in prices, and hence a negative elasticity, consistent with the theory shown in Figure 1c .”

May combine two claims.

With model fixed effects in columns 3 and 4, estimates for all four appliances rise and become statistically significant relative to ranges.

“In columns 3 and 4-when utilizing model fixed effects as controls-the estimates for all four appliances increase and become statistically significant relative to the price levels of ranges.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Table 3 shows a wide range of the consumer elasticity of tariffs.

“What is evident in Table 3 is a wide range of this consumer elasticity of tariffs.”

The quote only partly states this claim.

The estimated price effects of the 2018 Section 201 safeguard tariffs are much larger than those of the China antidumping case.

“By contrast, and consistent with the preliminary evidence from Figure 5b, the estimated price effects of the Section 201 safeguard tariffs are much more striking.”

May combine two claims.

Whirlpool raised washer prices by 13% to 17%, and its dryer prices rose at least as much.

“Depending on the time horizon, Whirlpool increased washer prices between 13 to 17 percent, with dryer prices increasing at least as much.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

Import unit values fell after the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties as production moved to China.

“Figure 3 reveals that unit values decreased following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties as production relocated to China”

May combine two claims.

Imports identified under the Section 201 rate provision code have applied tariff rates matching the statute, but the average effective tariff rate across all washer imports is significantly lower.

“While the imports identified under the Section 201 rate provision code display an applied tariff rate that matches those specified in the statute, the average effective tariff rate across all washer imports is significantly lower.”

May combine two claims.

The results show no clear domestic-versus-foreign brand split, with increases ranging from 5% to 17%.

“There is no clear distinction between domestic and foreign brands in these results, all within a range of 5 and 17 percent.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

G.E. had smaller increases, about 7% for washers and about 10% for dryers.

“G.E. had lower price increases of around 7 percent for washers and about 10 percent for dryers.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The Gap Intelligence weekly retailer-product price data are nationally representative of U.S. washer and dryer prices.

May combine two claims.

Before the Section 301 tariffs, Chinese imports made up about 17% of refrigerators, implying a trade-weighted tariff increase below two percentage points.

“Prior to these tariffs, the Chinese import share for refrigerators was around 17 percent, leading to an increase in the trade-weighted tariff rate of less than two percentage points.”

May combine two claims.

Matched washer-dryer models have a very high price correlation, above 0.95, and a price-change correlation of 0.82.

“Hence, the price correlation between these matched models is very high-over 0.95-while the correlation of price changes is 0.82.23”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In 86.3 percent of matched observations, the washer and its matching dryer have exactly the same price.

“for 86.3 percent of the matched observations, the washer has exactly the same price as the matching dryer.”

May combine two claims.

Average steel content is about 90 pounds for washing machines and about 127.5 pounds for the electric and gas ranges used as controls, so the two are fairly close.

“the steel content of washing machines is indeed quite close to the appliance used as our control of electric/gas ranges (average of 90 lbs vs 127.5 lbs)”

• cites Steel Recycling Institute and the Association of Home Appliance ManufacturersNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Refrigerators contain somewhat more steel than washers and dishwashers somewhat less.

“The other appliances-refrigerators and dishwashers-have steel content that is slightly higher and lower, respectively.”

• cites Steel Recycling Institute and the Association of Home Appliance ManufacturersNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Whirlpool's main assembly operations produce in a foreign trade zone, suggesting that imported components are an important part of its U.S. operations.

“Although we lack information on such linkages, the main assembly operations of Whirlpool produce in a foreign trade zone (see Appendix B.9), suggesting that imported components are an important piece of their U.S. operations.”

May combine two claims.

In brand-specific difference-in-difference estimates, the 2018 safeguard tariffs are associated with higher washer prices for all five major brands at four months, with coefficients from 0.0537 to 0.1799, each statistically significant.

“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.1799*** 0.1464*** 0.1427*** 0.0913* 0.0537*** 0.0807*** 0.1420*** 0.1544*** 0.0885*** 0.0859***”

May combine two claims.

Across all brands in brick-and-mortar stores, the 2018 safeguard tariffs are associated with washer price increases of 0.0868 at four months and 0.0908 at eight months, both significant at the 0.1 percent level.

“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.0868*** 0.0908*** 0.0843*** 0.1022***”

May combine two claims.

Foreign producers advertised about 1,600 new jobs following new U.S. production plans, and Whirlpool indicated it hired 200 additional workers because of the safeguard tariffs.

“As indicated above, foreign producers advertised new jobs on the order of 1,600 following new production plans in the United States; Whirlpool, on the other hand, indicated they hired 200 additional workers as a result of the safeguard tariffs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Among the appliances sold by these retailers, washers and dryers are especially tightly linked.

“there is an especially tight connection between washers and dryers among the set of appliances for these retailers.”

May combine two claims.

Unit values of the affected imports rose briefly but fell back by the time the tariffs were assessed in April/May, averaging 5 to 10 percent below their pre-tariff levels.

“Although prices increase briefly for two of the countries, by the time tariffs are actually assessed (in April/May, see Figure A4c) these prices fall back; averaging between 5 and 10 percent lower than before tariffs were applied.”

May combine two claims.

The annual shipment numbers used are roughly 10 million washing machines and 7.7 million clothes dryers.

“These numbers are roughly 10 million washing machines and 7.7 million clothes dryers.29”

May combine two claims.

Before the Section 301 tariffs, China accounted for 18 percent of refrigerator imports, 10 percent of range imports, and 30 percent of dishwasher imports.

“Prior to the Section 301 tariffs, the Chinese share of total imports for refrigerators, ranges, and dishwashers was 18 percent, 10 percent, and 30 percent, respectively.”

May combine two claims.

Calculated duties from February 2018 to January 2019 were just under 82 million USD for washing machines and about 355,000 USD for washing machine parts.

“According to data available on their website, calculated duties from February 2018 to January 2019 amounted to just under 82 million USD for washing machines, and about 355,000 USD for washing machine parts.”

May combine two claims.

Duties did not jump until roughly May 2018, despite announcements indicating collection would begin in February.

“Interestingly, the figure shows that duties didn't jump until roughly May of 2018, despite the fact that announcements indicated duties would be collected beginning in February.”

May combine two claims.

Almost all washer imports from Vietnam and Thailand faced the Section 201 duties, while only part of the imports from Korea did.

“Nearly all imports from Vietnam and Thailand were subject to these duties, whereas imports from Korea were only partially affected.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Gas dryers typically carry higher prices than electric dryers.

“Gas dryers are usually priced higher than the electric dryers.”

May combine two claims.

In a partial equilibrium setting, the estimated increased annual consumer costs are around 1.5 billion USD, or roughly 820,000 USD per job created.

“Despite the increase in domestic production and employment, the costs of these 2018 tariffs are substantial: in a partial equilibrium setting, we estimate increased annual consumer costs of around 1.5 billion USD, or roughly 820,000 USD per job created.”

May combine two claims.

The unit-value elasticity implies full pass-through to import prices after the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, while consumer prices actually fell during that period.

“The elasticity based on unit values implies full pass-through (increases) to import prices following the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, whereas the evidence cited above shows that prices to consumers actually fell during this period.”

May combine two claims.

A large gap between imports for consumption and general imports of washing machines emerged in 2014, and roughly all of that discrepancy is due to a jump in the Cleveland Customs District.

“As shown in Figure A9a, a large gap emerges between imports for consumption and general imports in 2014; Figure A9b demonstrates that roughly all of this discrepancy owes to a jump in the Cleveland Customs District.”

May combine two claims.

For washers only, the tariff elasticity of consumer prices is 0.23 for the China antidumping case, 1.25 for the trade-weighted average safeguard case, and 0.57 for the maximum safeguard case.

“Washers Only | N/A | 0.23 | 1.25 | 0.57”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Under the antidumping duties against China, washer prices rose significantly for Maytag and G.E. but not for Whirlpool, LG, or Samsung.

“Washers | -0.0306 (0.0283) | -0.0345 (0.0360) | 0.1420** 0.1897*** (0.0444) (0.0530) | 0.0098 (0.0387) | -0.0110 (0.0491) | 0.0830* (0.0413) | 0.0573 (0.0498) | -0.0020 (0.0180) | 0.0235 (0.0240) |”

May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

The 2018 safeguard tariffs raised washer prices substantially, by about 7% to 9.5% in the all-brands/all-retailers specification and about 11% to 12% in the specification with model characteristics or model fixed effects as controls.

“Safeguard tariffs 2018 Washers 0.0695*** 0.0807*** 0.0760*** 0.0949*** (0.0114) (0.0137) (0.0096) (0.0095)”

• Also stated in: § Figure A21: Total Number of Available Models by Brand · plain

  “Washers | 0.1092*** 0.1151*** 0.1104*** 0.1185*** (0.0138) (0.0181) (0.0111) (0.0118) |”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The correlation of average prices across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.87, and the washer-dryer correlation of average price changes across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.74.

“The correlation of average prices across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.87.The washer-dryer correlation of average price changes across all models within a brand/merchant is 0.74.”

May combine two claims.

The 2018 safeguard tariffs did not raise refrigerator or dishwasher prices; the estimated effects were near zero or negative.

“Refrigerators -0.0115 -0.0230* -0.0148** -0.0254*** (0.0079) (0.0108) (0.0049) (0.0053) Dishwashers -0.0023 -0.0073 0.0019 0.0087 (0.0088) (0.0123) (0.0060) (0.0074)”

May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

In the model, if the tariff increase is large enough that revenues under import tariffs on K fall sufficiently compared to revenues from producing in C, the monopolist switches production to C, and U.S. consumer prices for washing machines fall in response to import restrictions on K.

“the foreign monopolist switches the production location in response to the tariff and produces in C instead.”

• Also stated in: § 2 A Simple Model of Production Relocation, Prices, and Tariffs · hedged

  “Quite interestingly, as a consequence, the prices U.S. consumers would pay for washing machines would fall in response to the import restrictions on K.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The fixed cost of foreign production is higher than domestic production.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The examples illustrate the importance of analyzing jointly the production and price effects from import restrictions.

“These examples illustrate the importance of analyzing jointly the production and price effects from import restrictions.”

May combine two claims.

The washer and component duties began in February 2018 and were set to end after three years.

“These tariff rates went into effect in February 2018 (for washing machines and their component parts) and are scheduled to expire after three years.”

May combine two claims.

In 2006, Whirlpool acquired Maytag, substantially increasing concentration of washing machines and clothes dryers.

“In 2006, the Whirlpool Corporation (”

• Also stated in: § 3 Import Restrictions and Changes in Trade Flows · plain

  “This merger substantially increased the concentration of both washing machines and clothes dryers”

May combine two claims.

The example in Figure 1c would not occur in a competitive market where new firms from country C could enter on their own; in the absence of tariffs, production would never occur in country K.

“It is important to point out, that the example depicted in Figure 1c would not occur in a competitive market where new firms from country C could enter on their own.In that case, in the absence of tariffs, production would never occur in country K.”

May combine two claims.

Export unit values may reflect transfer pricing strategies to reduce tariff costs for trade between related parties, and therefore may not accurately characterize the price change faced by consumers.

“In addition, export unit values (measured at the border) may reflect transfer pricing strategies to reduce the costs of tariffs for trade between related parties.They therefore may not accurately characterize the price change faced by consumers.”

May combine two claims.

The paper reports evidence pointing to negative pass-through of tariffs and hence increased consumer surplus from the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties.

“Although our sample of microlevel prices does not overlap with the Korea/Mexico antidumping duties, we report evidence -a drop in the unit values from subsequent production in China, along with declines in the CPI index -pointing to a negative pass-through of tariffs and hence increased consumer surplus from these tariffs.”

May combine two claims.

Production relocation effects, price changes by domestic brands, and price changes of complementary goods all contribute to differences between the paper's measure and conventional pass-through estimates.

“Production relocation effects, price changes by domestic brands, and price changes of complementary goods all contribute to the differences between these measures.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Imported washing machines occupied less than ten percent of U.S. sales during the period around the Whirlpool/Maytag merger.

“Imported washing machines occupied a small share-less than ten percent-of U.S. sales during this time.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

For goods subject to antidumping duties, the Section 201 dutiable value was the product's value before any antidumping duties were assessed.

“For products subject to antidumping duties, the dutiable value (for Section 201 tariffs) would be the value of the imported product prior to any antidumping duties being assessed.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The paper's findings are related to work by Ruhl (2014), who finds a large aggregate impact of U.S. antidumping policies.

“Our findings are also related to work by Ruhl (2014), who finds a large aggregate impact of U.S. antidumping policies.”

• cites Ruhl (2014)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Firms shifted production following each new trade policy-first from Mexico/Korea to China, then to Thailand/Vietnam, and finally to the U.S.-to avoid paying import tariffs.

“To summarize, firms shifted production following each new trade policy-first from Mexico/Korea to China, then to Thailand/Vietnam, and finally to the U.S.-to avoid paying import tariffs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Canada was excluded from the Section 201 safeguard tariffs because its imports were not a substantial share and did not contribute to the USITC's injury finding.

“Canada was excluded, as the final announcement indicated that Canadian imports do not account for a substantial share of the total and do not contribute to the injury identified by the USITC.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Transfer pricing motives would typically lead to lower pass-through estimates as firms attempt to lower tariff or antidumping duty costs by lowering import prices.

“Transfer pricing motives would typically lead to lower pass-through estimates as firms attempt to lower the tariff / antidumping duties costs by lowering import prices.”

May combine two claims.

In the model with production in K and C, if fixed costs of opening a plant in C are sufficiently large or tariffs on imports from K are sufficiently small, the firm produces in K and there is full pass-through of tariffs to U.S. consumer prices.

“As long as the fixed costs of opening a plant in C are sufficiently large, or tariffs on imports from K are sufficiently small, this inequality will still hold resulting in full pass-through of the tariffs to the prices faced by U.S. consumers.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The fixed cost of foreign production is higher than domestic production.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

Taken together, Figures 2a and 2b are a striking illustration of the changes in supply chains induced by U.S. tariffs.

“Taken together, Figures 2a and 2b are a striking illustration of the changes in supply chains induced by U.S. tariffs.”

May combine two claims.

Domestic retail prices reflect the impacts of tariffs on domestic competitors, production relocation, and complementary goods, while unit values from trade data would miss these channels.

“The domestic retail prices reflect the impacts of tariffs on domestic competitors, production relocation, and complementary goods, while unit values from trade data would miss these channels.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The Section 201 safeguard duties were added on top of standard MFN rates under Chapter 84, which were 1% for washing machines in 2019.

“The Section 201 safeguard tariffs are imposed in addition to the standard MFN rates under Chapter 84 of the tariff schedule (which, in 2019, were 1 percent for washing machines).”

May combine two claims.

In the model with production relocation between countries C and V, under sufficiently high tariffs against C, the producer earns higher profits by producing in V, leading to an increase in the domestic price by pV - pC ≤ τ.

“However, under sufficiently high import tariffs against country C, the producer obtains higher profits from producing in country V instead.This leads to an increase in the domestic price by p V -p C ≤ τ .”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: There is a foreign monopolist that supplies washers to the United States.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: The foreign supplier has constant marginal cost in each available production location.
• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: In the Figure 1b example, the fixed cost to establish production in countries C and V is the same.

May combine two claims.

The CPI for laundry equipment fell considerably right after the Korea/Mexico-to-China relocation in mid-2012, which is consistent with negative pass-through.

“On the other hand, as we show below in Figure 4, the CPI for laundry equipment declines considerably just after the production relocation from Korea/Mexico to China in mid-2012-consistent with the negative pass-through interpretation of the changes in unit values.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The price analysis begins in mid-July 2014 because product ages near March 2013 have large measurement error and early discounts are strong.

“As this introduces large measurement error in products' ages in dates near March 2013 and we find particularly strong price discounts of appliances in the first few months, we start our price analysis from mid-July 2014 onward.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Refrigerators and dishwashers were included as placebo categories to test the plausibility of the estimates.

“We include refrigerators and dishwashers in the analysis as placebo effects-a check for the plausibility of our estimates.”

May combine two claims.

Identifying the price impacts of complementary goods not subject to tariffs is a further issue, and even if such goods were included in a pass-through regression, their import price impacts would likely not be reflected in the α1 coefficient.

“third and more complicated issue arises from identifying the price impacts of complementary goods not subject to tariffs.Even when these products would be included in a pass-through regression, the impacts to import prices would likely not be reflected in the α 1 coefficient from equation (5).”

May combine two claims.

The quota of 1.2 million units at the lower additional tariff rate was reached in October 2018, and all relevant units thereafter paid a higher rate of 50 percent.

“As mentioned above, the quota of 1.2 million units subject to the lower additional tariff rate was reached in October 2018, and all relevant units thereafter paid a higher rate of 50 percent.”

May combine two claims.

For the Section 201 safeguard, product-level exclusions within HS-10 codes exist, but the excluded products cannot be identified in the retail price data.

“For the Section 201 safeguard case, there were a number of product-level exclusions (within HS-10 codes), but we are unable to identify these excluded products in the retail price data (see Appendix B.2).”

May combine two claims.

The Section 201 safeguard was a tariff-rate quota and therefore had multiple tariff rates during the sample period.

“A second complication relates to the fact that the Section 201 safeguard measure was a tariff-rate quota, and therefore exhibits multiple tariff rates during the sample period we study.”

May combine two claims.

Pierce (2011) found that protected domestic plants in antidumping cases tend to raise prices and markups while physical productivity falls.

“Indeed, as shown by Pierce (2011) protected domestic plants from antidumping duties tend to exhibit increased prices and markups, with physical productivity actually falling.”

• cites Pierce (2011) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

LG's Clarksville, Tennessee plant was scheduled to open in late 2018 or early 2019 and was advertised to create about 600 jobs.

“An LG Electronic factory in Clarksville, Tennessee, is scheduled for a late 2018 or early 2019 opening, with an advertised creation of roughly 600 new jobs (LG Electronics (2017)).”

• cites LG Electronics (2017)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The measure reflects an overall elasticity for products consumed because it uses overall consumer prices and adjusts for the share of domestic production facing no tariff changes.

“The focus on the overall prices paid by consumers-made possible by our data-and adjustment for the share of domestic production facing no tariff changes (the M C,t-1 D C,t-1 term in the denominator) ensures that the measure reflects an overall elasticity for products consumed.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The September 2018 Section 301 tariffs on refrigerators and ranges were set at 10%.

“Included in what was a third round of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports (from the Section 301 provision of U.S. trade law intended to penalize unfair trade practices) were refrigerators and electric/gas ranges; household dishwashers were not subject to new tariffs.”

• Also stated in: § 4.2 Estimating the Price Effects of Washing Machine Import Restrictions · plain

  “These tariffs went into effect in September (roughly t = 28 in Figure 5b) at a rate of 10 percent.”

May combine two claims.

Those Section 232 measures led to higher domestic steel and aluminum prices, which are major input costs for US washer production.

“The ultimate result of these measures, however, was a jump in the domestic prices of steel and aluminum-which together represent a significant input cost in U.S. production of washing machines.”

May combine two claims.

Samsung's Newberry, South Carolina plant opened in January 2018 and planned to make 1 million washing machines that year.

“The Samsung factory in Newberry, South Carolina opened in January 2018 with plans to produce 1 million washing machines that year”

• cites Samsung (2017)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The control category is intended to subtract out other factors that could influence consumer prices for the product category apart from tariffs.

“The control category is meant to subtract out other factors that could be influencing consumer prices for product category C during this time period, apart from tariffs.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

In March 2018, the United States imposed Section 232 tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum.

“Using the rarely invoked”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Unit-value measurement faces the known problem of whether intra-firm transactions reflect prices relevant for ultimate consumers.

“Finally, measurement from unit values faces the known problem of whether intra-firm transactions reflect prices that are relevant for ultimate consumers.”

May combine two claims.

The rates reset in February 2019, with statutory rates declining to 18 percent in quota and 45 percent out of quota.

“These rates reset in February 2019, where the statutory rates decline to 18 percent (in quota) and 45 percent (out of quota).”

May combine two claims.

In the investigation record, LG and Samsung asked that the excluded washer types be brought within the scope, while Whirlpool and G.E. opposed amending the scope.

“From the investigation documents, we learn that the respondents (LG and Samsung) requested these excluded articles be included within the scope of the investigation, whereas Whirlpool and G.E. urged against amending the scope (see USITC 2017, page 9).”

• cites USITC 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The gap between the two import measures is usually small and reflects idiosyncratic customs-clearance timing and time spent in bonded temporary storage.

“Typically the differences in the data between these two definitions are small and reflect idiosyncratic timing in customs clearance as well as time spend in temporary storage in bonded warehouses.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Excluded products included stacked washer-dryers, commercial washers, and several specialty washers.

“Among these excluded products were stacked washer-dryers, commercial washers, and the following presumably specialty washers:”

May combine two claims.

The extra Section 301 rates on these appliances were only 10 percent, much smaller than the other trade measures adopted in 2018.

“The additional rates applied to these goods was substantially smaller (only 10 percent) than other trade provisions put into place in 2018.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Foreign trade zones account for about one-sixth of U.S. manufacturing value-added and about one-eighth of the value of U.S. imports.

“According to research by Grant (2017), foreign trade zones account for roughly one-sixth of U.S. manufacturing value-added, and one-eighth of the value of U.S. imports.”

• cites Grant (2017)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

When a foreign trade zone's finished product enters the United States for domestic use, the firm owes duties on the value of the imported parts.

“If the finished product of an FTZ enters the United States for domestic consumption, then the firm must then pay duties on the value of the imported parts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Data limitations prevent a full treatment of other factors that could be added to the analysis.

“There are a number of other factors that could be added to this analysis; unfortunately, data limitations prevent a full treatment on all of these channels.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Confidence intervals for the washer and dryer coefficient estimates use standard errors clustered by model.

“based on standard errors clustered by model.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

An imported good is generally recorded twice, first as a general import on arrival at the border and again as an import for consumption once it clears customs.

“In general, any imported good will be recorded twice: first as a”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Hufbauer, Lowry et al. (2012) calculated a cost of roughly 900,000 USD per job for the Section 421 tariffs on Chinese tire imports.

“Hufbauer, Lowry et al. (2012) calculate such a metric from the section 421 tariffs on Chinese tire imports, finding a cost of roughly 900,000 USD per job.”

• cites Hufbauer, Lowry et al. (2012)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The estimated consumer cost per job is of the same order of magnitude as other similar exercises.

“This number is of the same order of magnitude as other similar exercises.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

All of these calculations are made in partial equilibrium.

“All these calculations are made in partial equilibrium.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A foreign trade zone firm may choose between paying the tariff rate for the finished product and the rate for the imported components.

“the FTZ firm is allowed to choose whether they pay the tariff rate of the finished product (washing machine) or the imported components (various washing machine parts).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A manufacturing facility in a foreign trade zone, established at the request of a U.S. firm to the Department of Commerce, operates outside the U.S. customs border.

“Created at the request of a U.S. firm to the U.S. Department of Commerce, a manufacturing facility in an FTZ operates outside of the customs border of the United States.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Household refrigerators and gas and electric stoves and ranges were among the goods covered by the third round of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports imposed in September 2018.

“Among the set of products included under the third round of Section 301 tariffs against Chinese goods put into place in September 2018 were household refrigerators and gas/electric stoves and ranges.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The washer parts added to the Section 201 investigation are more accurately characterized as sub-assemblies of washers than as individual parts.

“This description makes clear that these additional inclusions are better described as sub-assemblies of washers than indivisible parts.”

• cites USITC 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Observations with a ratio of unit values in t relative to t-12 greater than 3 or less than 1/3 were dropped, following the convention of Amiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019).

“We also follow the convention ofAmiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019) and drop observations with a ratio of unit values in t relative to t-12 of greater than 3 or less than 1/3.”

• cites Amiti, Redding and Weinstein (2019) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Standard errors in the price regressions are clustered by model, and the reported 95% confidence intervals for washer and dryer coefficients are based on those clustered standard errors.

“Standard errors are clustered by model.”

• Also stated in: § C.2 Total Number of Available Models · plain

  “The dotted lines denote 95 percent confidence intervals for the coefficient estimates for washers and dryers, based on standard errors clustered by model.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

U.S. retail chains price uniformly across locations.

“Hitsch, Hortacsu and Lin (2017) and DellaVigna and Gentzkow (2017) report evidence suggesting uniform pricing in U.S. retail chains across locations.”

• cites Hitsch, Hortacsu and Lin (2017)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites DellaVigna and Gentzkow (2017) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source