Validating Migration Responses to Flooding Using Satellite and Vital Registration Data
Abstract
Rainfall measures may be imperfect proxies for floods, given factors such as upstream water balance, proximity to rivers, and topography. We check the robustness of flooding-migration relationships by combining nationally-representative survey data with measures of flooding derived from weather stations, gridded products, and remote sensing tools. Linear probability models reveal that extreme flooding is negatively associated with out-migration. Rainfall-based proxies produce results qualitatively similar to those using the satellite-based measure of inundation, but only the latter is able to discern non-monotonic effects throughout the distribution. Moreover, estimates differ widely across areas, suggesting that households respond differently to rainfall and flooding.
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Recent studies from Bangladesh report that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration.
“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Chen et al., 2017
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Gligorijević, V., & Bakić, D. (2024) · Planska i normativna zaštita prostora i životne sredine · doi:10.5937/pnzpzs25275g
Pattern and Socio-economic Condition of Rural Migrants from Coastal Sundarbans
Mandal, P., & Paul, S. (2025) · Springer geography · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-05858-4_4
Quantifying Migration Influences: Coastal Perspectives
Mandal, P., & Paul, S. (2025) · Springer geography · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-05858-4_5
Rahman, M. M., & Khairullah, A. (2025) · Regional Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100259
Trading Resilience for Growth: Evidence from Public Flood Protection in ChinaPreprint
Zhao, Y., Yang, Y., & Zhang, N. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6996377
Bangalore, M., McDermott, T. K. J., & Biscaye, P. E. (2026) · Spatial Demography · doi:10.1007/s40980-026-00169-3
“Few existing papers directly compare exposure and household-level effects using different approaches to flood observation, with a couple of notable exceptions (e.g., Chen et al., 2017; He et al., 2024; Saunders et al., 2025).”
Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration
Petrova, K., Zantout, K., Zimmermann, S., Niva, V., Kummu, M., Frieler, K., & Schewe, J. (2026) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4
“…with reduced out-migration in population-losing areas relative to isolated floods, potentially reflecting adaptation in place or resource constraints under repeated stress, although short-term local benefits such as improved soil quality or reconstruction activity 40 may also have a role.”
Bakić, D., & Trnavčević, N. (2026) · Lokalna samouprava u planiranju i uređenju prostora i naselja · doi:10.5937/lspupnxi26427b
- Authors
- Chen, J. J., Mueller, V., Jia, Y., & Tseng, S. K.-H.
- Affiliations
- The Ohio State University (US)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- National Central University (TW)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-05-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 441-445
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2615005770
- Cited by
- 87
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 8 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 16.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Keywords
- floods, migration, emigration, rainfall, civil registration, extreme rainfall, non-monotonic effects
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