The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning

Epley, Nicholas; Gilovich, Thomas

doi:10.1257/jep.30.3.133

Cited by 360Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsSocial and Intergroup PsychologyExperimental Behavioral Economics Studies

The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning

Epley, Nicholas, Gilovich, Thomas·2016·Journal of Economic Perspectives

DOI 10.1257/jep.30.3.133

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Whenever we see voters explain away their preferred candidate's weaknesses, dieters assert that a couple scoops of ice cream won't really hurt their weight loss goals, or parents maintain that their children are unusually gifted, we are reminded that people's preferences can affect their beliefs. This idea is captured in the common saying, “People believe what they want to believe.” But people don't simply believe what they want to believe. Psychological research makes it clear that “motivated beliefs” are guided by motivated reasoning—reasoning in the service of some self-interest, to be sure, but reasoning nonetheless. People generally reason their way to conclusions they favor, with their preferences influencing the way evidence is gathered, arguments are processed, and memories of past experience are recalled. Each of these processes can be affected in subtle ways by people's motivations, leading to biased beliefs that feel objective. In this symposium introduction, we set the stage for discussion of motivated beliefs in the papers that follow by providing more detail about the underlying psychological processes that guide motivated reasoning.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1257/jep.30.3.133

Cites

21 of 21 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Many motivationally biased beliefs depend on an illusion of objectivity: people typically arrive at and sustain desired conclusions only when they can justify them to themselves, which can prevent the formation of wildly implausible motivated beliefs about chatbots.
“many motivationally biased beliefs aren't yet fully insulated from counterevidence but depend on what has been called an”
From Are Attributions of Consciousness to AI Chatbots Epistemically Innocent? (2026) · cites this paper as Epley & Gilovich, 2016

A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance
Morvan, C., & O’Connor, A. (2017) · Macat Library eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781912282432 · Cited by 18,284 · see citing works
The case for motivated reasoning.
Kunda, Z. (1990) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 · Cited by 9,022 · see citing works
Rational choice and the structure of the environment.
Simon, H. A. (1956) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0042769 · Cited by 5,919 · see citing works
Choices, Values, and Frames
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (2013) · World Scientific handbook in financial economic series · doi:10.1142/9789814417358_0016 · Cited by 5,372 · see citing works
Micromotives and Macrobehavior
Eaton, B. C., & Schelling, T. C. (1981) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.2307/134812 · Cited by 3,801 · see citing works
What do people think they're doing? Action identification and human behavior.
Vallacher, R. R., & Wegner, D. M. (1987) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.94.1.3 · Cited by 1,802 · see citing works
The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework
Camerer, C. F., Hogarth, R. M., Budescu, D. V., & Eckel, C. C. (1999) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1406-8_2 · Cited by 1,549 · see citing works
Motivated skepticism: Use of differential decision criteria for preferred and nonpreferred conclusions.
Ditto, P. H., & Lopez, D. F. (1992) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.63.4.568 · Cited by 1,329 · see citing works
Informal social communication.
Festinger, L. (1950) · Research Center for Dynamics Institute for Social Research eBooks · doi:10.1037/10646-001 · Cited by 1,317 · see citing works
Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases
Babcock, L., & Loewenstein, G. (1997) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.11.1.109 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life
Gilovich, T. D. (1991) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,005 · see citing works
Self-citation
Quasi-Rational Economics.
Shiller, R. J., & Thaler, R. H. (1992) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2329014 · Cited by 925 · see citing works
Objectivity in the eye of the beholder: Divergent perceptions of bias in self versus others
Pronin, E., Gilovich, T., & Ross, L. (2004) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.111.3.781 · Cited by 771 · see citing works
Self-citation
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability
Dunning, D. A., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.020 · Cited by 688 · see citing works
Language use in intergroup contexts: The linguistic intergroup bias.
Maass, A., Salvi, D., Arcuri, L., & Semin, G. R. (1989) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-3514.57.6.981 · Cited by 654 · see citing works
A status-enhancement account of overconfidence.
Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0029395 · Cited by 453 · see citing works
Better-than-Average Effect
Zeigler‐Hill, V., & Shackelford, T. K. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-24612-3_300293 · Cited by 412 · see citing works
Dread Risk, September 11, and Fatal Traffic Accidents
Gigerenzer, G. (2004) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00668.x · Cited by 269 · see citing works
No one in my group can be below the group's average: A robust positivity bias in favor of anonymous peers.
Klar, Y., & Giladi, E. E. (1997) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.73.5.885 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Limited Life Expectancy, Human Capital and Health Investments
Oster, E. F., Shoulson, I., & Dorsey, E. R. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.5.1977 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Turning up the contrast: Self-enhancement motives prompt egocentric contrast effects in social judgments
Beauregard, K. S., & Dunning, D. (1998) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.74.3.606 · Cited by 134 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

The Dynamics of Motivated Beliefs
Zimmermann, F. (2020) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20180728 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Facts and Myths about Misperceptions
Nyhan, B. J. (2020) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.34.3.220 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
Defending humankind: Anthropocentric bias in the appreciation of AI art
Millet, K., Buehler, F., Du, G., & Kokkoris, M. D. (2023) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2023.107707 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
The Bias That Divides Us: The Science and Politics of Myside Thinking
Stanovich, K. E. (2021) · doi:10.7551/mitpress/13367.001.0001 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Belief-Dependent Motivations and Psychological Game Theory
Battigalli, P., & Dufwenberg, M. A. (2020) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20201378 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
The Consequences of Participating in the Sharing Economy: A Transparency-Based Sharing Framework
C. Köbis, N., Soraperra, I., & Shalvi, S. (2021) · Journal of Management · doi:10.1177/0149206320967740 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Trust in State and Nonstate Actors: Evidence from Dispute Resolution in Pakistan
Acemoğlu, D. (2020) · DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) · Cited by 125 · see citing works
When and How Different Motives Can Drive Motivated Political Reasoning
Bayes, R., Druckman, J. N., Goods, A., & Molden, D. C. (2020) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12663 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Consumption orientations may support (or hinder) transitions to more plant-based diets
Graça, J., Trüninger, M., Junqueira, L. O. L., & Schmidt, L. (2019) · Appetite · doi:10.1016/j.appet.2019.04.027 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
The Portfolio of Economic Policies Needed to Fight Climate Change
Blanchard, O. J., Gollier, C., & Jean Tirole, Z. (2023) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-015113 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Diffusion of Being Pivotal and Immoral Outcomes
Falk, A., Neuber, T., & Szech, N. (2020) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdz064 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
The pandemic exposes human nature: 10 evolutionary insights
Seitz, B. M., Aktipis, A., Buss, D. M., Alcock, J., Bloom, P. A., Gelfand, M. J., Harris, S., Lieberman, D., Natterson-Horowitz, B., Pinker, S. A., et al. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2009787117 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Replacing GDP by 2030
Hoekstra, R. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108608558 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Two sides of the same coin: Monetary incentives concurrently improve and bias confidence judgments
Lebreton, M., Langdon, S., Slieker, M. J., Nooitgedacht, J. S., Goudriaan, A., Denys, D., van Holst, R. V., & Luigjes, J. (2017) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaq0668 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Understanding how personality traits, experiences, and attitudes shape negative bias toward AI-generated artworks
Grassini, S., & Koivisto, M. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-54294-4 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
All We Need Is Trust: How the COVID-19 Outbreak Reconfigured Trust in Italian Public Institutions
Falcone, R., Colí, E., Felletti, S., Sapienza, A., Castelfranchi, C., & Fabio Paglieri, A. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.561747 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
We Ran 9 Billion Regressions: Eliminating False Positives through Computational Model Robustness
Muñoz, J., & Young, C. (2018) · Sociological Methodology · doi:10.1177/0081175018777988 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Peer Influence on Managerial Honesty: The Role of Transparency and Expectations
Brunner, M., & Ostermaier, A. (2017) · Journal of Business Ethics · doi:10.1007/s10551-017-3459-9 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Bribing the Self
Uri Gneezy, B., Saccardo, S., Serra-García, M., & van Veldhuizen, R. (2020) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2019.12.010 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
It's not a lie if you believe the norm does not apply: Conditional norm-following and belief distortion
Bicchieri, C., Dimant, E., & Sonderegger, S. (2023) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2023.01.005 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
How do voters perceive changes to the rules of the game? Evidence from the 2014 Hungarian elections
Ahlquist, J. S., Ichino, N., Wittenberg, J., & Ziblatt, D. F. (2018) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2018.01.001 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Algorithmic Assessments, Transparency, and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Bauer, K., & Gill, A. (2023) · Information Systems Research · doi:10.1287/isre.2023.1217 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Government Transparency
Porumbescu, G. A., Meijer, A. J., & Grimmelikhuijsen, S. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108678568 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Mass Atrocities and Their Prevention
Anderton, C. H., & Bräuer, J. (2021) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20201458 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
What is ‘confidence’ and what could affect it?: A qualitative study of mothers who are hesitant about vaccines
Alstyne, J. M. V., Nowak, G. J., & Aikin, A. L. (2017) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.007 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Trust in State and Non-State Actors: Evidence from Dispute Resolution in Pakistan
Acemoğlu, D., Cheema, A., Khwaja, A. I., & Robinson, J. A. (2018) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/707765 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
The relationship between political affiliation and beliefs about sources of “fake news”
Michael, R. B., & Breaux, B. O. (2021) · Cognitive Research Principles and Implications · doi:10.1186/s41235-021-00278-1 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Tragic Choices and the Virtue of Techno-Responsibility Gaps
Danaher, J. (2022) · Philosophy & Technology · doi:10.1007/s13347-022-00519-1 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Do beliefs yield to evidence? Examining belief perseverance vs. change in response to congruent empirical findings
Anglin, S. M. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2019.02.004 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
A preregistered replication of motivated numeracy
Persson, E., Andersson, D., Koppel, L., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2021) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104768 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Tracing the Boundaries of Motivated Reasoning: How Deliberative Minipublics Can Improve Voter Knowledge
Ársælsson, K. M., & Gastil, J. (2019) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12591 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Artificial Intelligence for chemical risk assessment
Wittwehr, C., Blomstedt, P., Gosling, J. P., Peltola, T., Raffael, B., Richarz, A.-N., Sienkiewicz, M., Whaley, P., Worth, A. P., & Whelan, M. P. (2019) · Computational Toxicology · doi:10.1016/j.comtox.2019.100114 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Motivated Reasoning and HIV Risk? Views on Relationships, Trust, and Risk from Young Women in Cape Town, South Africa, and Implications for Oral PrEP
Hartmann, M., McConnell, M. A., Bekker, L., Celum, C., Bennie, T., Zuma, J., & van der Straten, A. (2018) · AIDS and Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10461-018-2044-2 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Enabling or Limiting Cognitive Flexibility? Evidence of Demand for Moral Commitment
Saccardo, S., & Serra-García, M. (2023) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20201333 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
The case for partisan motivated reasoning
Williams, D. (2023) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-023-04223-1 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Lay beliefs about the controllability of everyday mental states.
Cusimano, C., & Goodwin, G. P. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0000547 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
People judge others to have more voluntary control over beliefs than they themselves do.
Cusimano, C., & Goodwin, G. P. (2020) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/pspa0000198 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
A little good is good enough: Ethical consumption, cheap excuses, and moral self-licensing
Engel, J., & Szech, N. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0227036 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment
Mazarr, M. J., Bauer, R., Casey, A., Heintz, S., & Matthews, L. J. (2019) · RAND Corporation eBooks · doi:10.7249/rr2714 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
The influence of collaborative argument mapping on college students’ critical thinking about contentious arguments
Kaeppel, K. (2021) · Thinking Skills and Creativity · doi:10.1016/j.tsc.2021.100809 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Injustice Without Evidence: The Unique Role of Conspiracy Theories in Social Justice Research
van Prooijen, J. (2021) · Social Justice Research · doi:10.1007/s11211-021-00376-x · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Updating, evidence evaluation, and operator availability: A theoretical framework for understanding belief.
Sommer, J., Musolino, J., & Hemmer, P. (2023) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000444 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Thoughts and Players: An Introduction to Old and New Economic Perspectives on Beliefs
Molnár, A., & Loewenstein, G. F. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009001021.023 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Policy accommodation versus electoral turnover: policy representation in Britain, 1945–2015
Bartle, J., Avellaneda, S. D., & McGann, A. J. (2018) · Journal of Public Policy · doi:10.1017/s0143814x18000090 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Choosing to Disagree: Endogenous Dismissiveness and Overconfidence in Financial Markets
Banerjee, S., Davis, J., & Gondhi, N. R. (2024) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13311 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Usable climate science is adaptation science
Sobel, A. H. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03108-x · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic
Faia, E., Fuster, A., Pezone, V., & Zafar, B. (2022) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01187 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
The Looking Glass for Intelligence Quotient Tests: The Interplay of Motivation, Cognitive Functioning, and Affect
Ganuthula, V. R. R., & Sinha, S. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02857 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Morality justifies motivated reasoning in the folk ethics of belief
Cusimano, C., & Lombrozo, T. (2021) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104513 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Pensar la Historia con el Deseo: Metacognición, Motivación y Comprensión Histórica
Martínez, C. D. G. (2019) · Revista Colombiana de Psicología · doi:10.15446/rcp.v28n1.70763 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Trusting COVID-19 vaccines as individual and social goal
Falcone, R., Ansani, A., Colí, E., Marini, M., Sapienza, A., Castelfranchi, C., & Fabio Paglieri, A. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-13675-3 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Divergence between employer and employee understandings of passion: Theory and implications for future research
Jachimowicz, J., & Weisman, H. (2022) · Research in Organizational Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.riob.2022.100167 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
It’s Not A Lie If You Believe It: Lying and Belief Distortion Under Norm-UncertaintyPreprint
Bicchieri, C., Dimant, E., & Sonderegger, S. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3326146 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Persistent beliefs: Political extremism predicts ideological stability over time
Zwicker, M. V., van Prooijen, J., & Krouwel, A. P. M. (2020) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/1368430220917753 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Perceived risk, political polarization, and the willingness to follow COVID-19 mitigation guidelines
Block, R., Burnham, M., Kahn, K., Peng, R. X., Seeman, J., & Seto, C. H.-F. (2022) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.115091 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Actively open-minded thinking is key to combating fake news: A multimethod study
Mirhoseini, M., Early, S., Shamy, N. E., & Hassanein, K. (2023) · Information & Management · doi:10.1016/j.im.2023.103761 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
How to Distinguish Motivated Reasoning from Bayesian Updating
Little, A. T. (2025) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-024-09999-7 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Giving to poverty relief charities: the impact of beliefs and misperceptions toward income redistribution in a real donation experiment
Luccasen, R. A., Thomas, M. K., & Grossman, P. J. (2017) · Social Choice and Welfare · doi:10.1007/s00355-017-1070-8 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Mental Time Travel as Self-Affirmation
Stephan, E., & Sedikides, C. (2023) · Personality and Social Psychology Review · doi:10.1177/10888683231203143 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Misinformation in Virtual Reality
Brown, J., Bailenson, J. N., & Hancock, J. T. (2023) · Journal of Online Trust and Safety · doi:10.54501/jots.v1i5.120 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic
Faia, E., Fuster, A., Pezone, V., & Zafar, B. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28484 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Promoting or preventing entrepreneurship? Employers’ perceptions of and reactions to employees’ entrepreneurial side jobs
Urbig, D., Reif, K., Lengsfeld, S., & Procher, V. (2021) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121032 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Motivated reasoning, fast and slow
Strömbäck, C., Andersson, D., Västfjäll, D., & Tinghög, G. (2021) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.34 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Can We Achieve “Equality” When We Have Different Understandings of Its Meaning? How Contexts and Identities Shape the Pursuit of Egalitarian Goals
Lewis, N. A. (2021) · Psychological Inquiry · doi:10.1080/1047840x.2021.1971441 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The asymmetric effect of narratives on prosocial behavior
Hillenbrand, A., & Verrina, E. (2022) · Games and Economic Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2022.06.008 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
How Identity Impacts Bystander Responses to Workplace Mistreatment
Gloor, J., Okimoto, T. G., Li, X., Gazdag, B. A., & Ryan, M. K. (2023) · Journal of Management · doi:10.1177/01492063231177976 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
A representative survey experiment of motivated climate change denial
Stötzer, L. S., & Zimmermann, F. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01910-2 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Cognitive Dissonance, Motivated Reasoning, and Confirmation Bias: Applications in Industrial Organization
Stone, D. F., & Wood, D. H. (2016) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2834072 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Managing expectations: How selective information affects cooperation and punishment in social dilemma games
Engel, C., Kube, S., & Kurschilgen, M. J. (2021) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.029 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Does fake news lead to more engaging effects on social media? Evidence from Romania
Corbu, N., Bârgăoanu, A., Buturoiu, R., & Ștefăniță, O. (2020) · Communications · doi:10.1515/commun-2019-0152 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Turning back the clock: Beliefs about gender roles during lockdown
Boring, A., & Moroni, G. (2023) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102363 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The self-presentational consequences of upholding one’s stance in spite of the evidence
John, L. K., Jeong, M., Francesca Gino, B., & Huang, L. (2019) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.07.001 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Cognitive Flexibility or Moral Commitment? Evidence of Anticipated Belief DistortionPreprint
Saccardo, S., & Serra-García, M. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3676711 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Moral thin-slicing: Forming moral impressions from a brief glance
Freitas, J. D., & Hafri, A. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2023.104588 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Reconciling scientific and commonsense values to improve reasoning.
Cusimano, C. J., & Lombrozo, T. (2021) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2021.06.004 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The Role of Predictions, Their Confirmation, and Reward in Maintaining the Self-Concept
Mokady, A., & Reggev, N. (2022) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2022.824085 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Acceptable Discourse: Social Norms of Beliefs and Opinions
Golman, R. (2022) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104588 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Interpreting politically-charged numerical information: The influence of numeracy and problem difficulty on response accuracy
Baker, S., Patel, N. P., Gunten, C. D. V., Valentine, K. D., & Scherer, L. D. (2020) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s193029750000735x · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Taxed fairly? How differences in perception shape attitudes towards progressive taxation
Kalleitner, F., & Bobzien, L. (2023) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcad060 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Did you see it coming? Explaining the accuracy of voter expectations for district and (sub)national election outcomes in multi-party systems
Mongrain, P. (2021) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102317 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Why Do We Discriminate? Directional Beliefs and Biased Information ProcessingPreprint
Eyting, M. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4210315 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Does the Dream of Home Ownership Rest Upon Biased Beliefs? A Test Based on Predicted and Realized Life Satisfaction
Odermatt, R., & Stutzer, A. (2022) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-022-00571-w · Cited by 16 · see citing works
RETRACTED ARTICLE: The skeptical import of motivated reasoning: A closer look at the evidence
van Doorn, M. (2023) · Thinking & Reasoning · doi:10.1080/13546783.2023.2276975 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Retracted
Pause artificial intelligence research? Understanding AI policy challenges
Avi Goldfarb, B. (2024) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/caje.12705 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
The Motivational Processes of Sense-Making
Wojtowicz, Z., Nick Chater, A., & Loewenstein, G. F. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009026949.002 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
How aggregated opinions shape beliefs
Oktar, K., & Lombrozo, T. (2025) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-024-00398-7 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Agentic preferences: a foundation for nudging when preferences are endogenous
Fabian, M., & Dold, M. (2022) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2022.17 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Community-Based Social Marketing—Creating Lasting, Sustainable, Environmental Change: Case Study of a Household Stormwater Management Program in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario
Smith, L. K. M., Lynes, J. K., & Wolfe, S. E. (2019) · Social Marketing Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1524500419883288 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Are Newsjunkies More Likely to Vote? Intrinsic Need for Orientation and Voter Registration, Intention to Vote, and Voter Conscientiousness
Martin, J. D., & Sharma, K. (2022) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12834 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Delusional belief about location (“reduplicative paramnesia”)
Coltheart, M., & Davies, M. (2024) · Cognitive Neuropsychiatry · doi:10.1080/13546805.2024.2443057 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Strategic information avoidance, belief manipulation and the effectiveness of green nudges
D’Adda, G., Gao, Y., Golman, R., & Tavoni, M. (2024) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108191 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The complementarity of mindshaping and mindreading
Peters, U. (2018) · Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11097-018-9584-9 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Expectations, network centrality, and public good contributions: Experimental evidence from India
Caria, S. A., & Marcel Fafchamps, A. (2017) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2017.07.024 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The policy mood in Spain: the thermostat in a warm climate, 1978–2017
Bartle, J., Bosch, A., & Orriols, L. (2020) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s175577392000003x · Cited by 13 · see citing works
A multi-method exploratory study of health professional students’ experiences with compliance behaviours
Violato, E. M., King, S., & Bulut, O. (2020) · BMC Medical Education · doi:10.1186/s12909-020-02265-4 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
An offer you can’t refuse? Incentives change how we inform ourselves and what we believe
Ambuehl, S. (2017) · Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) · doi:10.5167/uzh-182670 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Cognitive Flexibility or Moral Commitment? Evidence of Anticipated Belief DistortionPreprint
Saccardo, S., & Serra-García, M. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3692918 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Transformative Experimentation, Perspectival Diversity, and the Polycentric Liberal Order
Manor, A. R. (2021) · Res Publica · doi:10.1007/s11158-021-09528-x · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Locus of control and the preference for agency
Caliendo, M., Cobb‐Clark, D. A., Silva‐Goncalves, J., & Uhlendorff, A. (2024) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104737 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Bridging the knowledge gap: Mapping carbon emissions to food items facilitates choices of plant-based over animal-based items
Cadario, R., Li, Y., & Klesse, A.-K. (2025) · Appetite · doi:10.1016/j.appet.2025.107910 · Cited by 12 · see citing works

Authors: Epley, N., & Gilovich, T.
Affiliations: Nicholas Epley is the John T. Keller Professor of Behavioral Science, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business, Chicago, Illinois.
Cornell University (US)
ORCID: Gilovich, Thomas
Venue: Journal of Economic Perspectives
Publisher: American Economic Association
Published: 2016-08-01
Volume: 30
Issue: 3
Pages: 133-140
ISSN: 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1257/jep.30.3.133
OpenAlex: W2479768508
Cited by: 360
References: 21
Citations by year: 2026: 41 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 48 · 2022: 49 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1
FWCI: 17.02
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
Keywords: motivated reasoning, motivated beliefs, belief formation, cognitive biases, evidence collection, memory retrieval, self-interest, confirmation bias

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks