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Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
Abstract
Releases of greenhouse gases (GHG) from indirect land-use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This article analyzes these releases for maize ethanol produced in the United States. Factoring market-mediated responses and by-product use into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72% from the land used for the ethanol feedstock. Consequently, the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is 800 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule (MJ); 27 grams per MJ per year, over 30 years of ethanol production, or roughly a quarter of the only other published estimate of releases attributable to changes in indirect land use. Nonetheless, 800 grams are enough to cancel out the benefits that corn ethanol has on global warming, thereby limiting its potential contribution in the context of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
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“However, the estimate of LUC GHG emissions for this fuel has decreased substantially compared to earlier studies [1,2,11,12,36].”
From Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol (2013) · cites this paper as [2]
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“…estimate of emissions due to ILUC from the production of maize ethanol is about 3000 grams (g) of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent discharge per annual megajoule (MJ) of maize ethanol production capacity (Searchinger et al. 2008), or 100 g per MJ if allocated over 30 years of production.”
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Hertel, T. W., Golub, A. A., Jones, A. D., O'Hare, M., Plevin, R. J., & Kammen, D. M.
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2010-03
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 223-231
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2042467966
- Semantic Scholar
- 1711415b8f00f64c8855c6364d4157fd312a433f
- Cited by
- 554
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 70 · 2012: 49
- FWCI
- 59.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (publishedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
- Keywords
- indirect land use change, greenhouse gas emissions, biofuels, cropland conversion, CO2 emissions, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, climate policy, energy security
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