Solid cancer incidence among the Life-span study of atomic-bomb survivors: 1958-2009
Open accessAbstract
This is the third analysis of solid cancer incidence among the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, adding eleven years of follow-up data since the previously reported analysis. For this analysis, several changes and improvements were implemented, including updated dose estimates (DS02R1) and adjustment for smoking. Here, we focus on all solid cancers in aggregate. The eligible cohort included 105,444 subjects who were alive and had no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. A total of 80,205 subjects had individual dose estimates and 25,239 were not in either city at the time of the bombings. The follow-up period was 1958-2009, providing 3,079,484 person-years of follow-up. Cases were identified by linkage with population-based Hiroshima and Nagasaki Cancer Registries. Poisson regression methods were used to elucidate the nature of the radiation-associated risks per Gy of weighted absorbed colon dose using both excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models adjusted for smoking. Risk estimates were reported for a person exposed at age 30 years with attained age of 70 years. In this study, 22,538 incident first primary solid cancer cases were identified, of which 992 were associated with radiation exposure. There were 5,918 cases (26%) that occurred in the 11 years (1999-2009) since the previously reported study. For females, the dose response was consistent with linearity with an estimated ERR of 0.64 per Gy (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.77). For males, significant upward curvature over the full dose range as well as restricted dose ranges was observed and therefore, a linear-quadratic model was used, which resulted in an ERR of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.28) at 1 Gy and an ERR of 0.010 (95% CI: -0.0003 to 0.021) at 0.1 Gy. The shape of the ERR dose response was significantly different among males and females (P = 0.02). While there was a significant decrease in the ERR with increasing attained age, this decrease was more rapid in males compared to females. The lowest dose range that showed a statistically significant dose response using the sex-averaged, linear ERR model was 0-100 mGy (P = 0.038). In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates that solid cancer risks remain elevated more than 60 years after exposure. Sex-averaged upward curvature was observed in the dose response independent of adjustment for smoking. Findings from the current analysis regarding the dose-response shape were not fully consistent with those previously reported, raising unresolved questions. At this time, uncertainties in the shape of the dose response preclude definitive conclusions to confidently guide radiation protection policies. Upcoming results from a series of analyses focusing on the radiation risks for specific organs or organ families, as well as continued follow-up are needed to fully understand the nature of radiation-related cancer risk and its public health significance. Data and analysis scripts are available for download at: http://www.rerf.or.jp .
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The INWORKS study is only 9% female while the LSS is 60% female and has doses more distributed near 600 mSv.
“The INWORKS study is only 9% female while the LSS is 60% female and doses more distributed near 600 mSv”
From A proposed change to astronaut exposures limits is a giant leap backwards for radiation protection (2021) · cites this paper as Grant et al., 2017
Table 1 (Appendix B; page unavailable) lists 66,053 women among 111,917 LSS subjects, approximately 59%, supporting the rounded 60% figure. Table 8 shows LSS subjects in the 0.5–1 Gy dose category, and the Summary and Discussion describes INWORKS as mostly male with a mean dose of 0.021 Gy. The paper does not give the claimed 9% female figure for INWORKS or establish that LSS doses were concentrated near 600 mSv. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Grant, E. J., Brenner, A., Sugiyama, H., Sakata, R., Sadakane, A., Utada, M., Cahoon, E. K., Milder, C. M., Soda, M., Cullings, H. M., Preston, D. L., Mabuchi, K., & Ozasa, K.
- Affiliations
- Department of Epidemiology, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan
- National Cancer Institute (US)
- Radiation Effects Research Foundation (JP)
- Department of Statistics, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan
- Hirosoft International Corporation, Eureka, California
- Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland
- Corresponding author
- Grant, Eric J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Radiation Research
- Publisher
- Radiation Research Society
- Published
- 2017-05
- Volume
- 187
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 513-537
- ISSN
- 0033-7587 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-5404
- PMC
- PMC10320812
- OpenAlex
- W2599903518
- Cited by
- 434
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 37 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 50 · 2020: 56 · 2019: 49 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 13
- FWCI
- 33.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Radiation Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DEHS0000031)
- Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (DE-HS0000031)
- National Institutes of Health (Z99 CA999999)
- National Cancer Institute (ZIACP010134, HHSN261201400009C)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Effects of Radiation Exposure
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Radiation Dose and Imaging
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Radiological and Ultrasound Technology › Radioactivity and Radon Measurements
- Keywords
- atomic bomb survivors, Life Span Study, radiation-induced cancer, dose-response relationship, linear-quadratic model, sex differences, smoking adjustment, excess relative risk, excess absolute risk, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, cancer registry linkage, low-dose radiation risk
- MeSH terms
- Radiation Exposure, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Japan, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced, Risk Factors, Incidence, Proportional Hazards Models, Survival Analysis, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution, Survivors, Nuclear Weapons, Young Adult
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