The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Open accessAbstract
It is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent. The article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in increasing returns.
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Claims the paper makes
99 Own interpretation · 55 No basis given · 23 Sources not found · 6 Not checked yet · 3 Couldn’t confirm · 3 No full text of the sources · 2 Partly supported · 1 Supported so far · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Increasing returns arguments help explain the prevalence of pockets of specialized economic activity, from Sili con Valley to the high-end textile manufacturers of Northern Italy.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Description (indexed under “8. Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning”; no page given) says the book applies increasing-returns ideas to the development of industrial clusters such as Silicon Valley. The passages found do not mention Northern Italy or its high-end textile manufacturers, so that example is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.83)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“4. Potential Path-Inefficiency. The outcome that becomes locked-in may not in fact generate higher pay-offs than a foregone alternative over the long run.In this case, the process may be called path-inefficient.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy shows a table-of-contents entry for “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” (no page given), but not the chapter’s argument. Searches for path-inefficiency and for locked-in outcomes versus foregone alternatives returned no passage addressing their long-run pay-offs. (LLM, conf=0.72)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“1. Unpredictability.Because early events have a big impact and are partly random, many outcomes may be possible.We cannot predict ahead of time which of many possible end-states will be reached.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed passages headed “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” and “Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning” contain chapter titles, not the chapters’ arguments. Searches for unpredictable end-states and the effect of partly random early events found no passage in our copy that addresses the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Could not verify
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This essay argues that they are.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Polya urn processes exhibit increasing returns or positive feedback.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions will often entail high fixed or start-up costs, and involve con siderable learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each step along a particular path produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic growth generates the kind of positive feedback that distinguishes increasing returns or path dependent processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-on any individual trial, the ratio will eventually reach an equilibrium.Since later draws in a particular series contribute only minutely to the distri bution of balls in the urn, the distribution settles down onto a stable path.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparative advantage is not simply given, it is often created by a sequence of events over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 55
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Romer 1986 source
The Introduction says that increasing returns associated with knowledge are capable of explaining historical growth. Section III, “Motivation and Evidence,” reports output growth exceeding measured input growth and says the evidence does not rule out increasing returns as an explanation. The claim’s tentative wording reflects the paper’s caution; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Romer 1990 source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites David 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
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In the paper
“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
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In the paper
“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Lindblom 1977
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: unclear — It is unclear whether it could be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Collier 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Skowronek 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites White 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stinchcombe 1968
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Ikenberry 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
“Assume that the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years.In this context, effects after the election cycle do not count for much21.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
“Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The US health care reform episodes are representative enough of politics that conclusions about the difficulty of reforming deeply institutionalized policy drawn from them extend beyond health care.
“Thus even when an area of public policy is widely seen as problematic, it may be extremely diffi cult to engineer serious reforms if the policy has become deeply institutional ized.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“the so-called path dependency of welfare institutions is stronger in more developed welfare states (Boone etal., 2018; Pierson, 2000)”
From Public opinion on basic income: Mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision (2020) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Established conventions often remain established long after their original legitimation has dropped away precisely because agreeing to change – funding it, designing it and implanting it – is often extraordinarily difficult (Pierson, 2000).”
From Annual Research Review: Shifting from ‘normal science’ to neurodiversity in autism science (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Citations
Cites
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
North, D. C. (1990) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808678 · Cited by 32,691 · cited 4×
“This matrix, he emphasizes, "produces massive increasing returns" (North 1990a, 95).”
BackgroundInfluentialInstitutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
Munger, M. C., & North, D. C. (1991) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/1060065 · Cited by 25,224
Increasing returns and long-run growth
Romer, P. M. (1986) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261420 · Cited by 20,149
Olson, M. (1965) · doi:10.4159/9780674041660 · Cited by 14,191
The Logic of Collective Action.
Golembiewski, R. T., & Olson, M. (1966) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2091298 · Cited by 11,371
Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state: The case of economic policymaking in Britain
Hall, P. A. (1993) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422246 · Cited by 7,369
Lukes, S. (1974) · Power · doi:10.1007/978-0-230-80257-5_2 · Cited by 6,654
(1985) · American Economic Review · Cited by 6,056
North, D. C., & Weingast, B. R. (1989) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050700009451 · Cited by 5,300
Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy
Arthur, W. (2026) · doi:10.3998/mpub.10029 · Cited by 4,547
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Heclo, 1974, Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden
- Greider, 1982, The Education of David Stockman and Other Americans
- Krugman, 1996, Pop Internationalism
- 10.1007/978-1-349-02248-9 · DOI
- Levi, 1997, Comparative Politics: Rationality, Culture, and Structure, 19
- Fearon, 1996, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological and Psychological Perspectives, 39
- Geddes, 1997, The Use of Case Studies in Path Dependent Arguments
- Sewell, 1996, The Historic Turn in the Human Sciences, 245
- Polsby, 1963, Community Power and Social Theory
- Seabrook, 1997, The New Yorker, 42
- Tyson, 1993, Who's Bashing Whom? Trade Conflicts in High Technology Industries
- Ikenberry, 1994, History's Heavy Hand: Institutions and the Politics of the State
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 1,101–1,200 of 8,028
Roos, C., & Zaun, N. (2016) · Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · doi:10.1080/1369183x.2016.1162351 · Cited by 46
“This explains why policies remain stable rather than change radically (Hall and Taylor 1996, 938; Pierson 2000; Tsebelis, 2002).”
BackgroundImmigration policy under New Labour: Exploring a critical juncture
Consterdine, E., & Hampshire, J. (2013) · British Politics · doi:10.1057/bp.2013.19 · Cited by 45
Labor's Enduring Divide: The Distinct Path of Public Sector Unions in the United States
Walker, A. N. (2014) · Studies in American Political Development · doi:10.1017/s0898588x14000054 · Cited by 45
Zero carbon homes in the UK? Analysing the co-evolution of policy mix and socio-technical system
Edmondson, D. L., Rogge, K. S., & Kern, F. (2020) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2020.02.005 · Cited by 54
“…these shortcomings in the literature by drawing on the conceptual framework proposed by Edmondson et al (2018), which builds on insights from policy feedback theory (Pierson 1993, 2000; Beland 2010; Campbell 2012) in order to understand the co-evolution of policy mixes and socio-technical change.”
BackgroundGalea, N. R., & Chappell, L. (2021) · Gender Work and Organization · doi:10.1111/gwao.12639 · Cited by 45
Dolce far niente? Non-compliance and blame avoidance in the EU
Kriegmair, L., Rittberger, B., Zangl, B., & Heinkelmann‐Wild, T. (2021) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2021.1909938 · Cited by 45
“However, the complexity and opacity of politics (Pierson 2000) affect policy-makers’ ability to predict the success of blame avoidance strategies, which may well lead to unintended outcomes.”
BackgroundZartaloudis, S. (2014) · Social Policy and Administration · doi:10.1111/spol.12069 · Cited by 45
“It is argued that these reforms constitute a considerable effort towards welfare retrenchment (cf. Pierson 2000; Hemerijck 2002) which is implemented before converging with the more advanced welfare states of the EU15 (for an overview of the weaknesses of the Greek and Portuguese welfare states…”
BackgroundMethodMulti‐Level Environmental Governance: Exploring the economic explanations
Paavola, J. (2015) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.1698 · Cited by 54
Mahzouni, A. (2015) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.1688 · Cited by 44
What Future for the Global Environment Facility?
Clémençon, R. (2006) · The Journal of Environment & Development · doi:10.1177/1070496506286438 · Cited by 45
“…explained with reference to pathdependency, a notion that “specific patterns of timing and sequence matter, large consequences may result from relatively small or contingent events, and particular courses of action, once introduced, can be virtually impossible to reverse” (Pierson, 2000, p. 251).”
BackgroundOhemeng, F. L. K., & Anebo, F. K. G. (2012) · International Journal of Public Administration · doi:10.1080/01900692.2011.635470 · Cited by 48
“The path dependency, or historical institutionalism and punctuated equilibrium theories, have received much attention in the literature on politics and public policy (Baumgartner& Jones, 1993; True, Jones, & Baumgartner, 1999; Mahoney, 2000; Pierson, 2000; Pierson& Skocpol, 2002; Schneider, 2006; Wolfe, 2010).”
BackgroundOnufrey, K., & Bergek, A. (2015) · Industry and Innovation · doi:10.1080/13662716.2015.1100532 · Cited by 52
The Latin Bias: Regions, the Anglo-American Media, and Human Rights1
Hafner-Burton, E. M., & Ron, J. (2012) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/isqu.12023 · Cited by 45
The Historical Legacies of Communism: An Empirical Agenda
Kotkin, S., & Beissinger, M. R. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107286191.001 · Cited by 46
Understanding Institutional and Organizational Path Dependencies
Schreyögg, G., & Sydow, J. (2010) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230274075_1 · Cited by 47
The ‘Oops!’ of EU Engagement Abroad: Analyzing Unintended Consequences of EU External Action
Burlyuk, O. (2017) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/jcms.12549 · Cited by 49
Tynkkynen, L., Alexandersen, N., Kaarbøe, O. M., et al. (2018) · Health Policy · doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2018.03.008 · Cited by 45
The risky business of planning reform – The evolution of local spatial planning in Poland
Niedziałkowski, K., & Beunen, R. (2019) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.03.041 · Cited by 48
“The analysis shows that institutional changes are strongly path-dependent (Mahoney, 2000; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundEshuis, J., & Gerrits, L. (2019) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719037.2019.1679232 · Cited by 52
“Scholars (e.g. Duit and Galaz 2008; Pierson 2000) have pointed to tensions in pursuing durable transformations of institutions through adaptive governance.”
BackgroundLandscape sustainability and the landscape ecology of institutions
Cumming, G. S., & Epstein, G. (2020) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-020-00989-8 · Cited by 45
“In contrast, many historical institutionalists argue that institutions themselves provide a deeper structure to institutional development and change that provide selective incentives and opportunities that favour the persistence of core institutional structures (North 1990; Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundThe environmental legacy of President Trump
Bomberg, E. (2021) · Policy Studies · doi:10.1080/01442872.2021.1922660 · Cited by 45
“The pandemic is certainly one such crisis or “exogenous shock” which could act as a trigger for institutional and policy change (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundHotimsky, S., Cobb, R., & Bond, A. (2006) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-01718-110141 · Cited by 45
“A similar reasoning to the causes of institutional change is offered by political scientists attesting to functionalist arguments (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundO’Sullivan, M. A., & Graham, M. B. W. (2010) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6486.2010.00923.x · Cited by 43
“In particular, he suggests, this ‘temporal separation’ is evident in structural and path-dependent processes (Pierson, 2000, 2004).”
BackgroundManaging Political Opposition Groups in China: Explaining the Continuing Anti-Falun Gong Campaign
Noakes, S., & Ford, C. (2015) · The China Quarterly · doi:10.1017/s0305741015000788 · Cited by 44
EU trade policy: persistent liberalisation, contentious protectionism
Bollen, Y., Ville, F. D., & Orbie, J. (2016) · Journal of European Integration · doi:10.1080/07036337.2016.1140758 · Cited by 44
“Policy-makers in post-war Europe ‘removed certain options available from their future menu’ (Pierson 2000, 262) by delegating commercial policies to the supranational level.”
BackgroundThe Executive at Work during Times of Crisis
Parrado, S. (2012) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9781137010261_11 · Cited by 44
Camba, A. (2021) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102213 · Cited by 55
COVID-19 as a policy window: policy entrepreneurs responding to violence against women
Mintrom, M., & True, J. (2022) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1093/polsoc/puab017 · Cited by 50
How Do Pocketbook and Distributional Concerns Affect Citizens’ Preferences for Carbon Taxation?
McGrath, L. F., & Bernauer, T. (2023) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/727594 · Cited by 53
“Second, our article speaks to how the usage of revenue generated by taxation, and policy design generally, affects policy support due to the resulting formation of new constituencies of winners and losers (e.g., Campbell 2012; Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundBeckman, C. M., & Burton, M. D. (2011) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9780857933201.00009 · Cited by 44
“We do not want to focus on “a ‘snapshot’ explanation for what should be seen as a moving picture” (Pierson, 2000, p. 263) because focusing on temporal patterns allows us to consider the source of social outcomes.”
BackgroundBalbachevsky, E., Sampaio, H. C. D. L. B., & de Andrade, C. Y. (2019) · Social Inclusion · doi:10.17645/si.v7i1.1672 · Cited by 44
Historical Origins of Firm Ownership Structure: The Persistent Effects of the African Slave Trade
Pierce, L., & Snyder, J. A. (2020) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.5465/amj.2018.0597 · Cited by 46
Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2021) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2021.01.006 · Cited by 55
Mori, A. (2021) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2021.02.003 · Cited by 48
“Policy may generate two types of feedback effects that can create or augment prevailing political path-dependencies (Pierson, 2000) and carbon lock-in (Unruh, 2000).”
BackgroundMeasurement on carbon lock-in of China based on RAGA-PP model
Niu, H., & Liu, Z. J. (2021) · Carbon Management · doi:10.1080/17583004.2021.1966513 · Cited by 43
Why does pesticide pollution in water persist?
Hüesker, F., & Lepenies, R. (2021) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.11.016 · Cited by 44
Health, Social Relations, and Public Policy
Hall, P. A., & Taylor, R. C. R. (2009) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511816192.005 · Cited by 43
Sarapuu, K. (2012) · International Journal of Public Administration · doi:10.1080/01900692.2012.715561 · Cited by 44
“Because politico-administrative development has a strong inclination toward path dependency (Pierson, 2000), the decisions made at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s can be expected to be momentous for the development of the CEE administrative systems—the choices of the initial…”
The Interaction of Labor Market Regulation and Labor Market Policies in Welfare State ReformPreprint
Eichhörst, W., & Konle‐Seidl, R. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.789465 · Cited by 44
“Hence, we expect the paths of reform to differ not only due to diverging points of departure in the sense of ‘path dependence’ (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundGetting to ‘Yes’: Governing Genetically Modified Crops in Uganda
Schnurr, M. A., & Gore, C. D. (2014) · Journal of International Development · doi:10.1002/jid.3027 · Cited by 43
“…cycle can be observed: resources and institutions are created, and those that work in these bodies labour to see them maintained, thus establishing path dependency and positive feedback; with investment, capacity building and program development, the system becomes self-reinforcing (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundClosa, C. (2005) · European Law Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0386.2005.00268.x · Cited by 43
The historical roots of political violence
(2021) · Dialnet (Universidad de la Rioja) · Cited by 43
Varying Costs to Change? Institutional Change in the Public Sector
Gingrich, J. R. (2014) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12076 · Cited by 43
Path Dependence of Power Relations, Path-Breaking Change and Technological Adaptation
Valorinta, M., Schildt, H. A., & Lamberg, J. (2011) · Industry and Innovation · doi:10.1080/13662716.2011.621745 · Cited by 43
“Akin to technological path dependence, differences in political authority and power can persist over time as a result of their initial conditions, the accumulation of institutional sources of decision-making power and an increasingly inert web of social commitments (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundInfluentialProjecting from a Fiction: The Case of Denmark and the Financial Crisis
Carstensen, M. B. (2013) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563467.2013.742881 · Cited by 43
“However, it seems to be a different kind of complexity than the kind that characterises situations of crisis.2 For example, Pierson (2000) focuses on the difficulty of gaining enough information to determine ‘which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible, and what adjustments would…”
BackgroundAdapting science to a warming world
Knapp, C. N., & Trainor, S. F. (2013) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.007 · Cited by 42
Can Public Sector Organisations Learn?
Barrados, M., & Mayne, J. W. (2003) · OECD Journal on Budgeting · doi:10.1787/budget-v3-art17-en · Cited by 43
Showing the path to path dependence: the habitual path
Sarıgil, Z. (2014) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773914000198 · Cited by 53
“44–45; Hall and Taylor, 1996; Mahoney, 2000: 513; Pierson, 2000: 253; Alexander, 2001: 254; Greener, 2005; Soifer, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluentialBalarajan, Y., & Reich, M. R. (2016) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.05.001 · Cited by 43
Refugee integration policy the Norwegian way – why good ideas fail and bad ideas prevail
Djuve, A. B., & Kavli, H. C. (2018) · Transfer European Review of Labour and Research · doi:10.1177/1024258918807135 · Cited by 43
“…labour market programmes (ALMPs).4 Djuve (2011) argues that this fairly sharp deviation from previous integration policy can be explained by a combination of critical-juncture and pathdependency theory (Pierson, 2000), alongside theories of policy learning and the importance of ideas.”
BackgroundMethodLeading Change in a Complex World : Transdisciplinary Perspectives
Kangas, A., Kujala, J., Heikkinen, A., et al. (2019) · Cited by 43
Breznau, N., & Hommerich, C. (2019) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.03.013 · Cited by 43
Heine, K., & Rindfleisch, H. (2013) · Journal of Organizational Change Management · doi:10.1108/09534811311307888 · Cited by 58
The new institutionalism and the study of the European union: The case of the social dialogue
Gorges, M. J. (2001) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402380108425469 · Cited by 43
“'(3) Pierson, moreover, notes that institutions are embedded in networks of other institutions or 'densely linked institutional matrices', and that it is difficult to change one institution in a matrix because of this embeddedness.(14) Some historical institutionalists, however, focus on the opportunities for institut…”
BackgroundHagemann, K. (2006) · Social Politics International Studies in Gender State & Society · doi:10.1093/sp/jxj012 · Cited by 43
“…establishment of a pattern, the passage of time, and repeated use, the material and cultural costs of change rise; thus, specific economic, social, and political circumstances are necessary to institute furtherreaching reforms (Pierson 2000, 251–67; Steinmo et al. 1992; Streeck and Thelen 2005).”
Democracy in South Asia: Getting beyond the Structure-Agency Dichotomy
Adeney, K., & Wyatt, A. (2004) · Political Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2004.00461.x · Cited by 43
“This is consistent with the observation that events that occur early in a process of political change may achieve great significance later (Pierson, 2000, p. 263).”
BackgroundJudicial Institution Builders: NGOs and International Human Rights Courts
Haddad, H. N. (2012) · Journal of Human Rights · doi:10.1080/14754835.2012.648154 · Cited by 44
“Most broadly, path dependence argues that the institutional structures or policies of the past constrain future policies or structures (Sewell 1996 ; Mahoney 2000 ; Pierson 2000 ; Peters 2005 ).”
BackgroundÉvrard, A. (2012) · Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/13876988.2012.698582 · Cited by 44
“The inertia of this technicalinstitutional complex was an incentive to analyse policy-making through the notions of path dependence (Pierson 2000) or institutional lock-in (Unruh 2000).”
MethodInstitutions, Rulemaking, and the Politics of Judicial Retrenchment
Staszak, S. (2010) · Studies in American Political Development · doi:10.1017/s0898588x10000040 · Cited by 41
Society-driven Participatory Institutions: Lessons from Colombia’s Planning Councils
Mayka, L. (2019) · Latin American Politics and Society · doi:10.1017/lap.2018.79 · Cited by 43
“On self-reinforcing sequences (also called increasing returns), in which early advances generate future incentives to continue further down the same path, see Mahoney 2000; Pierson 2000.”
BackgroundThe Ebb and Flow of Global Governance
Grigorescu, A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108850049 · Cited by 62
Wampler, B., Sugiyama, N. B., & Touchton, M. M. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108675949 · Cited by 44
Overcoming path-dependent dynamic capabilities
Keller, A., Konlechner, S. W., Güttel, W. H., & Reischauer, G. (2022) · Strategic Organization · doi:10.1177/14761270221125807 · Cited by 56
The epistemic challenge to longtermism
Tarsney, C. (2023) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-023-04153-y · Cited by 30
Yielding Sovereignty to International Institutions: Bringing System Structure Back In1
Cooper, S., Hawkins, D. G., Jacoby, W., & Nielson, D. (2008) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2008.00802.x · Cited by 42
Tennekes, J., Driessen, P., van Rijswick, H. F. M. W., et al. (2013) · Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning · doi:10.1080/1523908x.2013.836961 · Cited by 42
“The scope for climate change adaptation options seems to be path-dependent (e.g. Pierson, 2000) on institutionalized solutions that have been established in the past.”
BackgroundEvans, M., & Kelley, J. (2018) · Societies · doi:10.3390/soc8040105 · Cited by 46
EL INSTITUCIONALISMO HISTÓRICO EN LA CIENCIA POLÍTICA CONTEMPORÁNEA
Pierson, P., & Skocpol, T. R. (2008) · Americanae (AECID Library) · Cited by 42
Self-citationAn analytic narrative approach to puzzles and problems
Levi, M. (2004) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511492174.010 · Cited by 50
Toward a Platinum Standard for Evidence‐Based Assessment by 2020
Khagram, S., & Thomas, C. W. (2010) · Public Administration Review · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02251.x · Cited by 42
Comparative Process Tracing in Housing Studies
Bengtsson, B., & Ruonavaara, H. (2011) · International Journal of Housing Policy · doi:10.1080/14616718.2011.626603 · Cited by 48
“Several writers in the path dependence tradition point out the efficiency mechanism, which has to do with the co-ordinating capacity of established institutions and with the transactions costs of changing them (e.g. North, 1990; Hall & Taylor, 1996, p. 945; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundTransaction costs and the transition to environmentally sustainable development
Barbier, E. B. (2011) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2011.02.001 · Cited by 42
“According to Boettke et al. (2008, p. 332), “path dependence emphasizes the increasing returns to institutions, which ‘lock in’ particular institutional arrangements that have emerged in various places for unique historical reasons” (see also Arthur, 1994; North, 1990; Page, 2006; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundSchmidt, V. A. (2007) · Cited by 42
Clientelism and Party Politics
Hopkin, J. (2006) · SAGE Publications Ltd eBooks · doi:10.4135/9781848608047.n35 · Cited by 47
EU treaty reform as a three-level process
Falkner, G. (2002) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501760110104145 · Cited by 42
“8 The following applies the distinction drawn by Pierson (2000a).”
BackgroundInfluentialMelander, F. (2006) · Lund University Publications (Lund University) · Cited by 42
The status of religion in emergent political regimes: lessons from T urkey and I srael
Rubin, A. (2012) · Nations and Nationalism · doi:10.1111/nana.12007 · Cited by 41
When do policies become path dependent? the Czech example
Saxonberg, S., Sirovátka, T., & Janoušková, M. (2013) · Journal of European Social Policy · doi:10.1177/0958928713507465 · Cited by 41
“path dependency (Katznelson, 2003; Pierson, 2000) and surely the collapse of communism presents one of the greatest exogenous shocks that European countries have experienced in recent decades.”
BackgroundVijge, M. J. (2012) · International Environmental Agreements Politics Law and Economics · doi:10.1007/s10784-012-9183-0 · Cited by 41
“Historical institutionalists argue that staying on the path is more in actors’ interest, since it is less costly than changing the path—i.e. bringing about substantial institutional change (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundJabko, N., & Sheingate, A. (2018) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592717004261 · Cited by 41
“1 Pierson 2000, 262.”
Managing protected areas in Central Eastern Europe: Between path-dependence and Europeanisation
Yakusheva, N. (2019) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104036 · Cited by 41
London’s food policy: Leveraging the policy sub-system, programme and plan
Parsons, K., Lang, T., & Barling, D. (2021) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102037 · Cited by 41
“The strand of historical instutitionalism (HI) emphasises the historical roots of policymaking structures and practices, noting that organisations cannot be understood simply on the basis of the functions they currently perform (Pierson 2000b; Thelen 1999, 2001, in Thelen 2002).”
BackgroundBentzen, T. Ø., & Torfing, J. (2022) · Public Administration · doi:10.1111/padm.12881 · Cited by 59
“Empirical studies point to the lack of time and resources and other inconvenience factors as a major obstacle (Fleishman 2009), but the continued predominance of NPM also seems to promote path-dependence (Pierson 2000), which leads public managers and employees to continue to walk the trodden path that they have learn…”
BackgroundIt's about time! Temporal dynamics and longitudinal research designs in public administration
Murdoch, Z., MacCárthaigh, M., & Geys, B. (2023) · Public Administration Review · doi:10.1111/puar.13758 · Cited by 41
Luo, H., & Sun, Y. (2024) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2024.132081 · Cited by 43
Globalization and Business Politics in Arab North Africa: A Comparative Perspective
Cammett, M. C. (2007) · Cited by 40
Dynamics of Power in Dutch Integration Politics
Uitermark, J. (2012) · Amsterdam University Press eBooks · doi:10.26530/oapen_426535 · Cited by 94
Briggs, M. J., Webb, J., & Wilson, C. (2015) · Economic Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1016/j.eap.2015.01.005 · Cited by 41
Net Inclusion: New Media’s Impact on Deliberative Politics in China
Lewis, O. A. (2013) · Journal of Contemporary Asia · doi:10.1080/00472336.2013.769387 · Cited by 41
“…feedback” and increasing returns to deliberative participatory democracy, as well as “negative feedback” stemming largely from authoritarian control (see Pierson 2000).3 The concluding section integrates these findings into an overall view of new media’s impact on the public sphere in China.”
BackgroundWessells, A. T. (2014) · Buildings · doi:10.3390/buildings4040764 · Cited by 40
“The sheer challenge of getting such projects done enlists and accrues the too-familiar path dependence of known ways of doing things [29]; for instance, the seemingly inevitable reversion to craftily managed public perceptions and reliance on deliberately vague cost estimates.”
BackgroundTrompette, P. (2007) · Revue Française de Sociologie · doi:10.3917/rfs.485.0003 · Cited by 41
Experts, ideas, and policy change: the Russell Sage Foundation and small loan reform, 1909–1941
Anderson, E. (2008) · Theory and Society · doi:10.1007/s11186-007-9050-0 · Cited by 45
“Building on this, Pierson and others have developed the influential concept of path dependence, arguing that social policy, once it is set upon a particular course, can become locked in and “virtually impossible to reverse” ( Pierson 2000: 251).”
BackgroundPATH DEPENDENCY AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: THE CASE OF INDUSTRIAL EMISSION CONTROL IN SWEDEN
Duit, A. (2007) · Public Administration · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9299.2007.00687.x · Cited by 41
Forest certification in Russia: Challenges of institutional development
Ulybina, O., & Fennell, S. (2013) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.09.004 · Cited by 41
The governance gap surrounding phosphorus
Rosemarin, A. S., & Ekane, N. (2015) · Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10705-015-9747-9 · Cited by 47
“Path dependence occurs when previous choices often are relevant to current action and organizations may be locked into an existing choice, as taking a new alternative could require new investments and efforts (Pierson 2000).”
Modularizing business models: between strategic flexibility and path dependence
Gärtner, C., & Schön, O. (2016) · Journal of strategy and management · doi:10.1108/jsma-12-2014-0096 · Cited by 41
Beyond Austerity: Reforming the Greek Economy
Meghir, C., Pissarides, C. A., Vayanos, D., et al. (2017) · Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) · Cited by 41
Korhonen‐Kurki, K., Brockhaus, M., Sehring, J., Gregorio, M. D., Assembe‐Mvondo, S., Babon, A., Bekele, M., Benn, V., Gebara, M. F., Kambiré, H., et al. (2018) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2018.1507897 · Cited by 40
“…all might cement business-as-usual institutions and behaviour, even in the presence of political will for reforms, new economic incentives, or new discourses providing alternatives to business as usual (Barr, Dermawan, Purnomo, & Komarudin, 2010; Brockhaus & Angelsen, 2012; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundPolitical trust, young people and institutions in Europe. A multilevel analysis
Chevalier, T. (2019) · International Journal of Social Welfare · doi:10.1111/ijsw.12380 · Cited by 48
Divestment trends in Japan's international coal businesses
Trencher, G., Downie, C., Hasegawa, K., & Asuka, J. (2020) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2020.109779 · Cited by 41
Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pierson, Paul
- ORCID
- Pierson, Paul
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 251-267
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2147111138
- Semantic Scholar
- 274439eda2c6c9e513794e1ee8f8eb9ac952431c
- Cited by
- 8,094
- References
- 97
- Citations by year
- 2026: 608 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 379 · 2023: 413 · 2022: 422 · 2021: 448 · 2020: 513 · 2019: 528 · 2018: 389 · 2017: 302 · 2016: 332 · 2015: 318 · 2014: 338 · 2013: 319 · 2012: 307
- FWCI
- 487.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 5174 d)
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Theory and Institutions
- Keywords
- path dependence, increasing returns, historical institutionalism, political development, critical junctures, institutional change, political process
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