The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Open accessAbstract
It is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent. The article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in increasing returns.
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Claims the paper makes
6 of 43 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Increasing returns arguments help explain the prevalence of pockets of specialized economic activity, from Sili con Valley to the high-end textile manufacturers of Northern Italy.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Description (indexed under “8. Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning”; no page given) says the book applies increasing-returns ideas to the development of industrial clusters such as Silicon Valley. The passages found do not mention Northern Italy or its high-end textile manufacturers, so that example is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“4. Potential Path-Inefficiency. The outcome that becomes locked-in may not in fact generate higher pay-offs than a foregone alternative over the long run.In this case, the process may be called path-inefficient.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy shows a table-of-contents entry for “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” (no page given), but not the chapter’s argument. Searches for path-inefficiency and for locked-in outcomes versus foregone alternatives returned no passage addressing their long-run pay-offs. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“1. Unpredictability.Because early events have a big impact and are partly random, many outcomes may be possible.We cannot predict ahead of time which of many possible end-states will be reached.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed passages headed “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” and “Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning” contain chapter titles, not the chapters’ arguments. Searches for unpredictable end-states and the effect of partly random early events found no passage in our copy that addresses the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This essay argues that they are.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Polya urn processes exhibit increasing returns or positive feedback.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions will often entail high fixed or start-up costs, and involve con siderable learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each step along a particular path produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic growth generates the kind of positive feedback that distinguishes increasing returns or path dependent processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-on any individual trial, the ratio will eventually reach an equilibrium.Since later draws in a particular series contribute only minutely to the distri bution of balls in the urn, the distribution settles down onto a stable path.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparative advantage is not simply given, it is often created by a sequence of events over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 55
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Romer 1986 source
The Introduction says that increasing returns associated with knowledge are capable of explaining historical growth. Section III, “Motivation and Evidence,” reports output growth exceeding measured input growth and says the evidence does not rule out increasing returns as an explanation. The claim’s tentative wording reflects the paper’s caution; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Romer 1990 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites David 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
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In the paper
“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Lindblom 1977
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
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In the paper
“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
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In the paper
“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Collier 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Skowronek 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites White 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stinchcombe 1968
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Ikenberry 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
“Assume that the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years.In this context, effects after the election cycle do not count for much21.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
“Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The US health care reform episodes are representative enough of politics that conclusions about the difficulty of reforming deeply institutionalized policy drawn from them extend beyond health care.
“Thus even when an area of public policy is widely seen as problematic, it may be extremely diffi cult to engineer serious reforms if the policy has become deeply institutional ized.”
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The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“the so-called path dependency of welfare institutions is stronger in more developed welfare states (Boone etal., 2018; Pierson, 2000)”
From Public opinion on basic income: Mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision (2020) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Established conventions often remain established long after their original legitimation has dropped away precisely because agreeing to change – funding it, designing it and implanting it – is often extraordinarily difficult (Pierson, 2000).”
From Annual Research Review: Shifting from ‘normal science’ to neurodiversity in autism science (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Citations
Cites
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
North, D. C. (1990) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808678 · Cited by 32,691 · cited 4×
“This matrix, he emphasizes, "produces massive increasing returns" (North 1990a, 95).”
BackgroundInfluentialInstitutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
Munger, M. C., & North, D. C. (1991) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/1060065 · Cited by 25,224
Increasing returns and long-run growth
Romer, P. M. (1986) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261420 · Cited by 20,149
Olson, M. (1965) · doi:10.4159/9780674041660 · Cited by 14,191
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Golembiewski, R. T., & Olson, M. (1966) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2091298 · Cited by 11,371
Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state: The case of economic policymaking in Britain
Hall, P. A. (1993) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422246 · Cited by 7,369
Lukes, S. (1974) · Power · doi:10.1007/978-0-230-80257-5_2 · Cited by 6,654
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North, D. C., & Weingast, B. R. (1989) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050700009451 · Cited by 5,300
Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy
Arthur, W. (2026) · doi:10.3998/mpub.10029 · Cited by 4,547
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 12
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 1,001–1,100 of 8,028
European Social Model: No Convergence from the East
Draxler, J., & van Vliet, O. (2010) · Journal of European Integration · doi:10.1080/07036330903375230 · Cited by 51
“To some extent, the expectations on the development on the post‐communist welfare states have been informed by wider debates on how much the transition to capitalism was influenced by path‐dependencies (Pierson 2000 ) — in other words how it could be viewed as a series of reconfigurations and recombinations of pre‐exi…”
BackgroundPolitical Science at the Edge of Chaos? The Paradigmatic Implications of Historical Institutionalism
Ma, S. (2007) · International Political Science Review · doi:10.1177/0192512107070403 · Cited by 50
Taking evolution seriously in political science
Lewis, O. A., & Steinmo, S. H. (2010) · Theory in Biosciences · doi:10.1007/s12064-010-0097-5 · Cited by 49
“interesting examples include: (Futuyma and Slatkin 1983; Mayr 1988, Hoffman and Riley 1999; Holland 1992; Jervis 1997; Pierson 2000; Kerr 2002; Ridley 2003; Zimmer 2001).”
BackgroundJones, B. D., Zalányi, L., & Érdi, P. (2014) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12088 · Cited by 52
Power, Institutions and the CSDP: The Promise of Institutionalist Theory
Menon, A. (2010) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02130.x · Cited by 55
Re-examining policy stability in climate adaptation through a lock-in perspective
Groen, L., Alexander, M., King, J. P., Jager, N. W., & Huitema, D. (2022) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2022.2064535 · Cited by 50
“This mechanism displays similarities with network effects (Pierson, 2000), but relates specifically to network effects associated with businesses that flourish as a consequence of policy decisions ✓”
BackgroundInfluentialThe Office for Budget Responsibility and the Politics of Technocratic Economic Governance
Clift, B. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192871121.001.0001 · Cited by 49
The Lancet Commission on peaceful societies through health equity and gender equality
Percival, V., Thoms, O. T., Oppenheim, B., Rowlands, D., Chisadza, C., Fewer, S., Yamey, G., Alexander, A. C., Allaham, C. L., Causevic, S., et al. (2023) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01348-x · Cited by 55
Zhu, Y., & Rao, H. (2024) · Cities · doi:10.1016/j.cities.2024.104815 · Cited by 54
Rolnik, R. (2009) · Revista Brasileira de Estudos Urbanos e Regionais · doi:10.22296/2317-1529.2009v11n2p31 · Cited by 50
Fleischer, J. (2013) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719037.2013.769852 · Cited by 56
“…argue that ‘critical junctures’ occur as periods of significant change, forcing organizations to move onto a particular path, which they follow due to the increasing returns to change direction (Arthur, 1994; Collier and Collier, 1991; Pierson, 2000; Schreyögg and Sydow, 2011; Thelen, 1999).”
BackgroundKruck, A. (2016) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2015.1127274 · Cited by 51
“The regulatory institutionalization of CRAs’ status reflects features of an increasing returns process meaning that ‘the probability of further steps along the same path increases with each move down that path’ (Pierson 2000: 252).”
BackgroundEvolving Conceptualizations of Organizational Environmentalism: A Path Generation Account
Bothello, J., & Djelic, M. (2017) · Organization Studies · doi:10.1177/0170840617693272 · Cited by 50
“Hence, research has shifted towards evolutionary alternatives that explain how fundamental transformation can occur in a more incremental fashion (Garud et al., 2010; Mahoney & Thelen, 2010; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundPerformance Ranking and Environmental Governance: An Empirical Study of the Mandatory Target System
Tang, X., Liu, Z., & Yi, H. (2018) · Review of Policy Research · doi:10.1111/ropr.12298 · Cited by 50
Understanding Society and Natural Resources
Manfredo, M. J., Duke, E., Rechkemmer, A., & Vaske, J. J. (2014) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8959-2 · Cited by 57
Stakeholder management and path dependence in organizational transitions
Lamberg, J., Pajunen, K., Parvinen, P. M. T., & Savage, G. T. (2008) · Management Decision · doi:10.1108/00251740810882635 · Cited by 51
“Following Pierson (2000), increasing returns in a social and political context means that the costs of switching from one setting to another increase over time.”
BackgroundInfluentialSomething old, something new: Path dependence and path creation during the early stage of a project
Aaltonen, K., Ahola, T., & Artto, K. A. (2017) · International Journal of Project Management · doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.03.004 · Cited by 53
“Increasing returns refers to how the cost of switching from one option to another increases over time, leading ultimately to lock-in, where the path is irreversible—that is, flexibility is nonexistent, and the actions and decision logics of the actors follow a predominant mode (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundInfluentialNot by the Book: The Emergence and Translation of Housing First in Sweden
Knutagård, M., & Kristiansen, A. (2013) · Cited by 49
Leftwich, A., & Kunal Sen, A. (2011) · Journal of International Development · doi:10.1002/jid.1773 · Cited by 47
The Colonial Image Reversed: Language Preferences and Policy Outcomes in African Education
Albaugh, E. A. (2009) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2009.00539.x · Cited by 49
Imposed Coherence: Negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements
Elgström, O., & Pilegaard, J. (2008) · Journal of European Integration · doi:10.1080/07036330802141949 · Cited by 50
“In the end, very limited changes were actually made to the draft recommendation (see European Commission 2002b).”
BackgroundInfluentialWebster, M. (2008) · Decision Analysis · doi:10.1287/deca.1080.0114 · Cited by 50
“The idea of path dependency is that once a particular course of action has been chosen, it becomes increasingly difficult over time to reverse that course (Pierson 2000, Sewell 1996, Levi 1997).”
BackgroundOutsiders and Intrapreneurs: The Institutional Embeddedness of Social Entrepreneurship in Germany
Grohs, S., Schneiders, K., & Heinze, R. G. (2016) · VOLUNTAS International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11266-016-9777-1 · Cited by 57
“These formal rules of the game, structuring the incentives, were supported by informal rules of complementary ideas (‘‘subsidiatity’’) and identities (‘‘local partnerships’’) that stabilized them, creating considerable ‘‘path dependencies’’ (Pierson 2000; Mahoney 2000).”
BackgroundKaarbo, J., & Kenealy, D. (2016) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2016.1240408 · Cited by 49
“Historical institutionalism stresses the need to understand historical contingencies and path dependencies when trying to understand the development of political institutions (Pierson 2000, 2004).”
BackgroundDuvat, V. K. E., Volto, N., Stahl, L., et al. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102236 · Cited by 49
“Path dependencies mean that antecedent pathways have a major influence in driving the current and future status of the system (Fawcett et al. , 2017; Pierson, 2000; Parsons et al. , 2019; Rasmussen et al. , 2009; Wise et al. , 2014).”
BackgroundThe Politico-Legal Dynamics of Judicial Review
Roux, T. R. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108340977 · Cited by 51
The Catholic Church and European State Formation, AD 1000-1500
Møller, J., & Stavnskær Doucette, J. (2022) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192857118.001.0001 · Cited by 49
Haber, H. (2010) · Law & Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9930.2010.00332.x · Cited by 49
Project governance and path creation in the early stages of Finnish nuclear power projects
Hellström, M., Ruuska, I., Wikström, K., & Jåfs, D. (2013) · International Journal of Project Management · doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.01.005 · Cited by 49
“Its widespread use has also led to wide and ambiguous interpretations, and increased concern about the usefulness of the concept has been raised (David, 2001; Pierson, 2000; Sydow et al., 2009; Vergne and Durand, 2010).”
BackgroundForeign Aid and Democratization: Benin and Niger Compared
Gazibo, M. (2005) · African Studies Review · doi:10.1353/arw.2006.0015 · Cited by 49
“Once this trend began, the donors were inclined to continue providing aid, not only because they needed a success story (Boaffo-Arthur 1999), but also because of the process of increasing returns described by Paul Pierson (2000a).”
BackgroundCHANGES IN PUBLIC SERVICE BARGAINS: MINISTERS AND CIVIL SERVANTS IN DENMARK
Salomonsen, H. H., & Knudsen, T. F. (2011) · Public Administration · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9299.2011.01925.x · Cited by 49
Stead, D. (2013) · Journal of Planning Literature · doi:10.1177/0885412212471562 · Cited by 48
“…used concept in social science (see, e.g., Alexander 2001; Arrow 2000; Berman 1998; Bruggeman 2002; Greener 2002a, 2002b; Hansen 2002; Hedlund 2000; Holzinger and Knill 2002; Mahoney 2001; O’Brien 1996; Pierson 2000; Scott 2001; Sterman and Wittenberg 1999; Torfing 1999, 2001; Wilsford 1994).”
BackgroundMethodRenewables, manufacturing and green growth: Energy strategies based on capturing increasing returns
Mathews, J. A., & Reinert, E. S. (2014) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.011 · Cited by 49
“12 For a useful overview of increasing returns arguments, with applications to many strands of social scientific thought, see Pierson (2000).”
BackgroundThe Lasting Effect of Civic Talk on Civic Participation: Evidence from a Panel Study
Klofstad, C. (2010) · Social Forces · doi:10.1353/sof.2010.0047 · Cited by 51
Path dependence in Operational Research—How the modeling process can influence the results
Hämäläinen, R. P., & Lahtinen, T. J. (2016) · Operations Research Perspectives · doi:10.1016/j.orp.2016.03.001 · Cited by 54
“Path dependence is a concept which has been widely used in different areas including economics [1, 2, 3], policy studies [4, 5], ecology [6, 7], complex adaptive systems [8, 9], sociology [10, 11, 12], political science [13], and organizational decision making [14].”
BackgroundPolitical economy challenges in nutrition
Balarajan, Y., & Reich, M. R. (2016) · Globalization and Health · doi:10.1186/s12992-016-0204-6 · Cited by 49
“Once institutional commitment to nutrition has been established, it provides some resistance to change, and can create a buffer from shifting priorities and short-term electoral cycles [43].”
BackgroundICTs and the challenge of health system transition in low and middle-income countries
Bloom, G., Berdou, E., Standing, H., Guo, Z., & Labrique, A. B. (2017) · Globalization and Health · doi:10.1186/s12992-017-0276-y · Cited by 49
Resilience as an Emergent European Project? The EU's Place in the Resilience Turn
Joseph, J., & Juncos, A. E. (2019) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/jcms.12881 · Cited by 49
“External forces will not have the same result in every period; previous political outcomes will determine the impact of current external forces and then a specific historical development or ‘path’ (Hay and Wincott, 1998; Pierson, 2000, p. 251).”
BackgroundEconomic Resilience of German Lignite Regions in Transition
Stognief, N., Walk, P., Schöttker, O., & Oei, P.-Y. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11215991 · Cited by 57
“Path dependence occurs when past events, such as an important invention based on fossil fuels like the steam engine, lead to further carbon-based developments and inventions [16,17].”
BackgroundTropical marine sciences: Knowledge production in a web of path dependencies
Partelow, S., Hornidge, A., Senff, P., Stäbler, M., & Schlüter, A. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0228613 · Cited by 55
“The data in this study can be interpreted as reflecting historical patterns of geopolitical network formation and the maintenance of past networks, supporting path dependency theory that this is typically less cost intensive than establishing new ones [40,42,64].”
BackgroundInfluentialCourts and the Puzzle of Institutional Stability and Change
Barnes, J. (2008) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912908317028 · Cited by 48
Are Old-age Pension System Reforms Moving Away from Individual Retirement Accounts in Latin America?
Calvo, E., Bertranou, F., & Bertranou, E. (2010) · Journal of Social Policy · doi:10.1017/s0047279409990663 · Cited by 49
“We characterise the recent transformations as path-dependent and shaped by policy feedbacks (Pierson, 2000); that is, constrained by the enduring impact of previously enacted IRAs.”
Background(2001) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0198297564.003.0001 · Cited by 49
Schneider, A. L. (2006) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591290605900313 · Cited by 47
Why transaction costs are so relevant in political governance? a new institutional survey
Caballero, G., & Soto-Oñate, D. (2016) · Brazilian Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1590/0101-31572016v36n02a05 · Cited by 49
Lieberman, E. S. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781316273104.010 · Cited by 49
Hameiri, S. (2019) · Review of International Political Economy · doi:10.1080/09692290.2019.1675742 · Cited by 49
“Most notably, NIA scholars have adapted comparative HI’s mechanisms of ‘sequencing’, ‘institutional layering’ and ‘feedback loops’ to a transnational setting (see Pierson, 2000; Thelen, 2004), now manifesting as ‘cross-national sequencing’, ‘cross-national layering’, and ‘transnational feedbacks’.”
BackgroundThe Pieces Kept after Peace is Kept: Assessing the (Post-Exit) Legacies of Peace Operations
Gledhill, J. (2020) · International Peacekeeping · doi:10.1080/13533312.2019.1710367 · Cited by 48
How flood risks shape policies: flood exposure and risk perception in Swiss municipalities
Glaus, A., Mosimann, M., Röthlisberger, V., et al. (2020) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01705-7 · Cited by 48
“At the same time, local governments tend to maintain the established infrastructure measures that function well and have known outcomes (see Peters et al. 2005; Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundThe Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: The Victory of Unorthodox Lawmaking
Beaussier, A. (2012) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-1672709 · Cited by 48
Assessing actually-existing trajectories of EU politicisation
de Wilde, P., & Lord, C. (2015) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2015.1081508 · Cited by 48
Good and Bad Times of Social Innovations: The Case of Universal Basic Income in Finland
Koistinen, P., & Perkiö, J. (2014) · Basic Income Studies · doi:10.1515/bis-2014-0009 · Cited by 48
“It has been noted that social policy institutions – due to various mutually intertwined vested interests and complex path dependencies – are often reluctant to implement large-scale reforms (Pierson, 2000, 2004).”
BackgroundNew World, Old Ideas—A Narrative of the Lithuanian Forestry Transition
Brukas, V. (2014) · Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning · doi:10.1080/1523908x.2014.993023 · Cited by 48
“Thus, when examining the Lithuanian forestry transition, we could, for example, organize the analysis around judging the degree of path dependence on preceding policies (Pierson, 2000), juxtaposed to punctuations of equilibriums (Jones, Baumgartner, & True, 1998) presumably due to external perturbations outside the fo…”
MethodPower Rather Than Path Dependency? The Dynamics of Institutional Change under Health Care Federalism
Gómez, A. R., & Costa‐Font, J. (2005) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-30-1-2-231 · Cited by 48
Movement in Context: Thick Networks and Japanese Environmental Protest
Broadbent, J. P. (2003) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199251789.003.0009 · Cited by 50
Madariaga, A. (2018) · Bulletin of Latin American Research · doi:10.1111/blar.12841 · Cited by 55
Choi, C. G., Lee, S., Kim, H., & Seong, E. Y. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.09.027 · Cited by 52
Rinscheid, A., Eberlein, B., Emmenegger, P., et al. (2019) · Regulation & Governance · doi:10.1111/rego.12238 · Cited by 48
Refashioning Local Government and Inner-city Regeneration: The Salford Experience
Henderson, S. R., Bowlby, S., & Raco, M. (2007) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1080/00420980701373495 · Cited by 49
Renovating the Commons: Swedish Health Care Reforms in Perspective
Saltman, R. B., & Bergman, S.-E. (2005) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-30-1-2-253 · Cited by 49
A Long Financial March: Pension Reform in China
Béland, D., & Yu, K. (2004) · Journal of Social Policy · doi:10.1017/s004727940300744x · Cited by 48
“paths (Skocpol, 1992; Pierson, 2000).”
Institutional Change and the Uses and Limits of Path Dependence: The Case of German FinancePreprint
Deeg, R. (2007) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1013345 · Cited by 48
“In a flurry of recent work Paul Pierson (2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d) has elaborated an enticing theory of path dependence because it is a more complete and precise one than is typically found in social science.”
BackgroundInfluentialThe Politics of Institutional Weakness in Latin America
Weber, C. T. (2021) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1882425 · Cited by 47
Schmidt, V. A. (2012) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199641987.003.0009 · Cited by 49
The Political Economy of Pension Policy Reversal in Post-Communist Countries
Sokhey, S. W. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316995822 · Cited by 48
Kelsey, N. (2018) · Business and Politics · doi:10.1017/bap.2018.19 · Cited by 46
“18 Pierson (2000); and Patashnik (2003) are several examples of a much broader field.”
BackgroundCrafting a ‘liberal monarchy’: regime consolidation and immigration policy reform in Morocco
Natter, K. (2020) · The Journal of North African Studies · doi:10.1080/13629387.2020.1800206 · Cited by 48
“On the one hand, dynamics of path dependency (Pierson 2000) would suggest that as soon as the ‘royal impulse’ disappears, institutions fall back into their deeply-rooted behaviours – for the Ministry of Interior a purely securitarian approach, for the MCMREAM a focus on Moroccans abroad, for the…”
BackgroundBremer, B. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192872210.001.0001 · Cited by 47
Trouvé, H., Couturier, Y., Etheridge, F., et al. (2010) · International Journal of Integrated Care · doi:10.5334/ijic.544 · Cited by 47
“The approach we took to the analysis of institutional integration is based on ‘path dependency’ theory [10].”
MethodPolíticas de saúde no Brasil nos anos 2000: a agenda federal de prioridades
Machado, C. V., Baptista, T. W. D. F., & Nogueira, C. D. O. (2011) · Cadernos de Saúde Pública · doi:10.1590/s0102-311x2011000300012 · Cited by 47
Bailey, N., Gannon, M., Kearns, A., Livingston, M., & Leyland, A. H. (2013) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a45641 · Cited by 46
“Such geographical feedback would help to explain why the social bases for redistribution are eroded in more unequal societies (Bowles and Gintis, 2000) and would be one means for explaining the path-dependent nature of development within welfare regimes (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundPath dependence and the stabilization of strategic premises: how the funeral industry buries itself
Wenzel, M. (2015) · BuR - Business Research · doi:10.1007/s40685-015-0021-4 · Cited by 56
Tosun, J., Unt, M., & Wadensjö, E. (2017) · Social Policy and Administration · doi:10.1111/spol.12315 · Cited by 47
Roleska, M., Román-Urrestarazu, A., Griffiths, S., Ruigrok, A. N. V., Holt, R., van Kessel, R., McColl, K., Sherlaw, W., Brayne, C., & Czabanowska, K. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0202336 · Cited by 50
Ruvalcaba-Gómez, E. A., Criado, J. I., & Gil-García, J. R. (2020) · Public Policy and Administration · doi:10.1177/0952076720936349 · Cited by 47
“After reviewing other public policy analytical frameworks (Cairney and Heikkila, 2014; Cohen et al., 1972; Collier and Mahon,1993; Herweg, 2016; Herweg et al., 2018; Osborne, 1993; Pierson, 2000; Sabatier, 2007; Sabatier and Weible, 2014; Weible et al., 2009) that may be applicable to OG policies, it has been determin…”
BackgroundMethodStarting low, reaching high? Sequencing in EU climate and energy policies
Leipprand, A., Flachsland, C., & Pahle, M. (2020) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2020.08.006 · Cited by 51
“It assumes that policy sequences may be self-reinforcing if existing patterns are strengthened via positive feedback effects (Pierson 2000), or reactive if connections between subsequent events include counterreactions and backlash (Howlett 2009; Mahoney 2000), and if early events produce responses…”
BackgroundCause and Effect in Political Polarization: A Dynamic Analysis
Callander, S., & Carbajal, J. C. (2021) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/718200 · Cited by 50
Implementing and complying with EU governance outputs
Treib, O. (2008) · Living Reviews in European Governance · doi:10.12942/lreg-2008-5 · Cited by 48
Contentious Connections in Great Britain, 1828–34
Tilly, C., & Wood, L. J. (2003) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199251789.003.0007 · Cited by 48
Historical Enquiry and Comparative Politics
Mahoney, J., & Villegas, C. M. (2009) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566020.003.0003 · Cited by 47
Singular memory or institutional memories? Toward a dynamic approach
Corbett, J., Grube, D., Lovell, H., & Scott, R. J. (2018) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12340 · Cited by 52
“Similarly, there are now well-established theoretical perspectives on historical institutionalism and path dependency which argue that the past constrains the future (Pierson 2000 and 2004; Lowndes and Roberts 2013; Bell 2011).”
BackgroundInstitutional Grammar 2.0: A specification for encoding and analyzing institutional design
Frantz, C. K., & Siddiki, S. (2021) · Public Administration · doi:10.1111/padm.12719 · Cited by 48
Path dependence and path break-out in the electricity sector
Apajalahti, E., & Kungl, G. (2022) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2022.03.010 · Cited by 50
The politics of directionality in innovation policy through the lens of policy process frameworks
de Graaff, S., Wanzenböck, I., & Frenken, K. (2024) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1093/scipol/scae083 · Cited by 50
Do Provincial Drug Benefit Initiatives Create an Effective Policy Lab? The Evidence from Canada
Pomey, M., Morgan, S., Church, J., Forest, P., Lavis, J. N., McIntosh, T., Smith, N., Petrela, J., Martin, E., & Dobson, S. (2010) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-2010-025 · Cited by 51
The growth of political support for CO2capture and storage in Norway
Tjernshaugen, A. (2011) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2011.551029 · Cited by 54
“The process-tracing and comparative analysis identifies path dependence effects in the specific sense of self-reinforcing dynamics based on increasing returns mechanisms (Thelen 1999 , Pierson 2000 ).”
BackgroundFrustrations in Collaborative Working
Rigg, C., & O'Mahony, N. (2012) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719037.2012.686231 · Cited by 48
“…any particular institutional setting, past choices influence subsequent choices, to the point of what Tödling and Trippl (2004) describe as cognitive lock-in, or because the costs of adopting an alternative are or appear to be greater than keeping to the same path (Lowndes, 2005; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundEconomía creativa y desarrollo urbano en España: una aproximación a sus lógicas espaciales
del Valle, R. M. G., Michelini, J. J., Prada‐Trigo, J., et al. (2012) · EURE (Santiago) · doi:10.4067/s0250-71612012000100001 · Cited by 46
“Pero también ayuda a explicar la persistencia de determinadas especializaciones a lo largo del tiempo que, según Pierson (2000), favorecen la aparición de rendimientos crecientes derivados de las redes de interrelaciones formales e informales existentes, lo que retroalimenta determinados clusters…”
BackgroundMinistries and Agencies: Steering, Meddling, Neglect and Dependency
Pollitt, C. (2005) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230524194_7 · Cited by 46
Too big to jail: Match-fixing, institutional failure and the shifting of responsibility
Tak, M. (2017) · International Review for the Sociology of Sport · doi:10.1177/1012690216682950 · Cited by 46
“In institutionalist terms, vested interests and ideas around football might have caused incremental, path-dependent change when the football-betting regime was first established in 2001 (Krasner, 1984; Pierson, 2000b).”
BackgroundIs the trajectory of European Union environmental policy less certain?
Zito, A. R., Burns, C., & Lenschow, A. (2019) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2019.1549779 · Cited by 46
“At the start of the process, there are a number of potential outcomes, but seemingly minor events, as long as they occur at a propitious moment, can have lasting and, sometimes, self-reinforcing effects that normally inhibit policy reversals (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundHidayati, I., Yamu, C., & Tan, W. G. Z. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11185115 · Cited by 46
“From an institutional perspective, previous institutional values have been internalized and remain as an organizational routine in the current system [3,33].”
BackgroundFischhendler, I., & Heikkila, T. (2010) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-03015-150104 · Cited by 46
“As institutional theorists widely recognize, the relative benefits of such institutional arrangements can therefore tend to increase over time, which in turn increases the costs of institutional change (Levy 1997, Pierson 2000).”
Bruttel, O. (2005) · International Review of Administrative Sciences · doi:10.1177/0020852305056809 · Cited by 46
“This institutional stability is probably best understood by reference to the concept of path dependency (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundSistema de saúde universal e território: desafios de uma política regional para a Amazônia Legal
Viana, A. L. D., Machado, C. V., Baptista, T. W. D. F., et al. (2007) · Cadernos de Saúde Pública · doi:10.1590/s0102-311x2007001400002 · Cited by 46
Doherty, B., & Hayes, G. (2014) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414012439184 · Cited by 38
“In this sense their tactics might be construed as an instance of “path dependency” (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundStand und Perspektiven der vergleichenden Staatstätigkeitsforschung
Zohlnhöfer, R. (2008) · VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-531-90774-1_9 · Cited by 47
Accountability: the core concept and its subtypes
Lindberg, S. I. (2009) · Cited by 55
Explaining Party Formation and Nonformation in Russia
McFaul, M. A. (2001) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414001034010003 · Cited by 46
Fragmentation in Global Energy Governance: Explaining the Creation of IRENAPreprint
de Graaf, T. V. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1974898 · Cited by 46
Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pierson, Paul
- ORCID
- Pierson, Paul
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 251-267
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2147111138
- Semantic Scholar
- 274439eda2c6c9e513794e1ee8f8eb9ac952431c
- Cited by
- 8,094
- References
- 97
- Citations by year
- 2026: 608 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 379 · 2023: 413 · 2022: 422 · 2021: 448 · 2020: 513 · 2019: 528 · 2018: 389 · 2017: 302 · 2016: 332 · 2015: 318 · 2014: 338 · 2013: 319 · 2012: 307
- FWCI
- 487.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 5174 d)
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Theory and Institutions
- Keywords
- path dependence, increasing returns, historical institutionalism, political development, critical junctures, institutional change, political process
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