The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Open accessAbstract
It is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent. The article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in increasing returns.
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Claims the paper makes
6 of 43 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Increasing returns arguments help explain the prevalence of pockets of specialized economic activity, from Sili con Valley to the high-end textile manufacturers of Northern Italy.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Description (indexed under “8. Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning”; no page given) says the book applies increasing-returns ideas to the development of industrial clusters such as Silicon Valley. The passages found do not mention Northern Italy or its high-end textile manufacturers, so that example is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“4. Potential Path-Inefficiency. The outcome that becomes locked-in may not in fact generate higher pay-offs than a foregone alternative over the long run.In this case, the process may be called path-inefficient.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy shows a table-of-contents entry for “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” (no page given), but not the chapter’s argument. Searches for path-inefficiency and for locked-in outcomes versus foregone alternatives returned no passage addressing their long-run pay-offs. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“1. Unpredictability.Because early events have a big impact and are partly random, many outcomes may be possible.We cannot predict ahead of time which of many possible end-states will be reached.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed passages headed “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” and “Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning” contain chapter titles, not the chapters’ arguments. Searches for unpredictable end-states and the effect of partly random early events found no passage in our copy that addresses the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This essay argues that they are.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Polya urn processes exhibit increasing returns or positive feedback.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions will often entail high fixed or start-up costs, and involve con siderable learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each step along a particular path produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic growth generates the kind of positive feedback that distinguishes increasing returns or path dependent processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-on any individual trial, the ratio will eventually reach an equilibrium.Since later draws in a particular series contribute only minutely to the distri bution of balls in the urn, the distribution settles down onto a stable path.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparative advantage is not simply given, it is often created by a sequence of events over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 55
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Romer 1986 source
The Introduction says that increasing returns associated with knowledge are capable of explaining historical growth. Section III, “Motivation and Evidence,” reports output growth exceeding measured input growth and says the evidence does not rule out increasing returns as an explanation. The claim’s tentative wording reflects the paper’s caution; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Romer 1990 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites David 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
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In the paper
“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Lindblom 1977
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
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In the paper
“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
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In the paper
“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Collier 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Skowronek 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites White 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stinchcombe 1968
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Ikenberry 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
“Assume that the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years.In this context, effects after the election cycle do not count for much21.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
“Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The US health care reform episodes are representative enough of politics that conclusions about the difficulty of reforming deeply institutionalized policy drawn from them extend beyond health care.
“Thus even when an area of public policy is widely seen as problematic, it may be extremely diffi cult to engineer serious reforms if the policy has become deeply institutional ized.”
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The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“the so-called path dependency of welfare institutions is stronger in more developed welfare states (Boone etal., 2018; Pierson, 2000)”
From Public opinion on basic income: Mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision (2020) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Established conventions often remain established long after their original legitimation has dropped away precisely because agreeing to change – funding it, designing it and implanting it – is often extraordinarily difficult (Pierson, 2000).”
From Annual Research Review: Shifting from ‘normal science’ to neurodiversity in autism science (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Citations
Cites
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
North, D. C. (1990) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808678 · Cited by 32,691 · cited 4×
“This matrix, he emphasizes, "produces massive increasing returns" (North 1990a, 95).”
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Munger, M. C., & North, D. C. (1991) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/1060065 · Cited by 25,224
Increasing returns and long-run growth
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Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state: The case of economic policymaking in Britain
Hall, P. A. (1993) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422246 · Cited by 7,369
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Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy
Arthur, W. (2026) · doi:10.3998/mpub.10029 · Cited by 4,547
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 801–900 of 8,028
Transnational Liberalism and U.S. Primacy
Owen, J. M. (2002) · International Security · doi:10.1162/016228801753399745 · Cited by 66
Another Dutch Miracle? Explaining Dutch and German Pension Trajectories
Haverland, M. (2001) · Journal of European Social Policy · doi:10.1177/095892870101100402 · Cited by 66
“Large fixed costs and adaptive expectations are two additional sources of path dependency in public pensions (c.f. Pierson, 2000: 254).”
BackgroundThe Political Sources of Social Solidarity
Hall, P. (2017) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198795452.003.0008 · Cited by 27
Sexual and gender minorities rights in Latin America and the Caribbean: a multi-country evaluation
Malta, M., Cardoso, R., Montenegro, L., de Jesus, J. G., Seixas, M., Benevides, B., Silva, M. D. D., LeGrand, S., & Whetten, K. (2019) · BMC International Health and Human Rights · doi:10.1186/s12914-019-0217-3 · Cited by 72
Marenco, M., & Seidl, T. (2021) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s175577392100014x · Cited by 65
“…’ (Hall, 2016, p. 42) and therefore rely on the continuing support of actors, they also sustain the coalitions that support them (Hall, 2016) – for example, by providing incumbent coalitions with material benefits (Pierson, 2000) or control over the timing of institutional reform (Capoccia, 2016).”
BackgroundCapano, G., Howlett, M. P., Jarvis, D. S. L., & Ramesh, M. (2022) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1093/polsoc/puab018 · Cited by 76
Weyland, K. G. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108692823 · Cited by 65
Dieleman, M. H., Markus, S., Rajwani, T. S., & White, G. O. (2022) · Journal of International Management · doi:10.1016/j.intman.2022.100935 · Cited by 76
Historical Institutionalism in Communication Studies
Bannerman, S., & Haggart, B. (2014) · Communication Theory · doi:10.1111/comt.12051 · Cited by 81
Conceitos de Ciência e a Política Científica, Tecnológica e de Inovação
Velho, L. (2011) · Sociologias · doi:10.1590/s1517-45222011000100006 · Cited by 79
“…situada e construída, e 7 Path dependence (sem tradução adequada para o português) é um argumento geral que tem sido amplamente usado em ciência política (Pierson, 2000), sociologia histórica (Mahoney, 2000) e no estudo do desenvolvimento econômico e tecnológico (North, 1990; Arthur, 1994).”
BackgroundWollmann, H. (2018) · International Public Management Journal · doi:10.1080/10967494.2018.1428255 · Cited by 65
“…and discourse coalitions (e.g., the neo-liberal and New-Public-Managementinspired discourse on public sector modernization); and the historical variant accentuates the impact of institutional, political, and cultural (possibly path-dependently entrenched) traditions (“legacies”) (see Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundSmall, Slow, and Gradual Reform: What can Historical Institutionalism Teach us?
Kickert, W. J. M., & van der Meer, F.-B. (2011) · International Journal of Public Administration · doi:10.1080/01900692.2011.583768 · Cited by 70
“Pierson (2000a, 2000b) also warned against the use of the concept “without careful elaboration.””
BackgroundMethodGoodfellow, T. (2013) · Oxford Development Studies · doi:10.1080/13600818.2013.807334 · Cited by 64
“Any function that they do fulfil may thus be emergent rather than designed (Pierson, 2000b).”
BackgroundInfluentialInstitutional change and stability in postcommunist countries, 1990–2002
Armingeon, K., & Careja, R. (2008) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00772.x · Cited by 64
Shared service strategies in local government – a multiple case study exploration
Niehaves, B., & Krause, A. (2010) · Transforming Government People Process and Policy · doi:10.1108/17506161011065235 · Cited by 64
“Referring to the reasoning of path dependency (Pierson, 2000), municipalities have to know each other from at least punctual common projects in order to have the necessary basis for a trustful cooperation during shared service delivery.”
BackgroundParrado, S. (2008) · International Journal of Public Sector Management · doi:10.1108/09513550810855672 · Cited by 64
“This model argues that major changes account for institution innovation and they are reproduced in a dependent path through “increasing returns” mechanisms ( Pierson, 2000”
BackgroundDecentralization and centralization
Minas, R., Wright, S., & van Berkel, R. (2012) · International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy · doi:10.1108/01443331211236989 · Cited by 64
Repositioning Politics in Education’s Circle of Knowledge
McDonnell, L. M. (2009) · Educational Researcher · doi:10.3102/0013189x09342584 · Cited by 67
“…feedback, in instances where the persistent support of policy beneficiaries reinforces and expands existing institutional structures, or negative policy feedback, in cases where political opponents are successful in scaling back or terminating those institutions (Hacker, 2004; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundInstitutionalism, cultural institutions and cultural policy in the Nordic countries
Kangas, A., & Vestheim, G. (2010) · Nordisk kulturpolitisk tidskrift · doi:10.18261/issn2000-8325-2010-02-08 · Cited by 69
(2006) · Taylor & Francis eBooks · doi:10.1201/9781439834275 · Cited by 64
Dualization as Destiny? The Political Economy of the German Minimum Wage Reform
Marx, P., & Starke, P. (2017) · Politics & Society · doi:10.1177/0032329217726793 · Cited by 64
Palier, B. (2007) · Governance · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0491.2007.00345.x · Cited by 64
Aaron, H. J. (2003) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejme030091 · Cited by 64
Beyond social regulation? New instruments and/or a new agenda for social policy at Lisbon?
Wincott, D. (2003) · Public Administration · doi:10.1111/1467-9299.00360 · Cited by 64
“Path dependency finds its roots in theories of complex adaptive systems, where it is as much a theory of the unpredictable potential of such systems for rapid transformation as it is one that focuses on their ‘inertial’ properties (for a ‘political science’ discussion see Pierson 2000 ).”
BackgroundInterests and choice in the ‘not quite so new’ politics of welfare
Ross, F. (2000) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402380008425365 · Cited by 64
“institutional stickiness have contributed greatly to our understanding of continuities in social policy across time and particularly the welfare state's resilience in the face of mounting pressures.(8) Pierson's path-breaking work has redefined many of the core issues for welfare studies.”
Background‘Tough Love’: How the ECB’s Monetary Financing Prohibition Pushes Deeper Euro Area Integration
Yiangou, J., O’Keeffe, M., & Glöckler, G. (2013) · Journal of European Integration · doi:10.1080/07036337.2013.774786 · Cited by 63
“HI explains the effects of institutions over time (Pierson 2000; Pierson 2004), with institutions here defined as the ‘rules of the game’ (North 1990).”
BackgroundA policy mixes approach to conceptualizing and measuring climate change adaptation policy
Lesnikowski, A. C., Ford, J. D., Biesbroek, R. G., & Berrang‐Ford, L. (2019) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02533-3 · Cited by 73
“As such, thinking on the emergence and evolution of policy mixes draws from the literature on historical institutionalism (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundTrein, P., & Maggetti, M. (2019) · Public Administration Review · doi:10.1111/puar.13117 · Cited by 65
Nationalism, Secessionism, and Autonomy
Lecours, A. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192846754.001.0001 · Cited by 64
Hanger-Kopp, S., Thaler, T., Seebauer, S., Schinko, T., & Clar, C. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102425 · Cited by 80
“At least, scholars agree that further knowledge about how institutions were constructed would “provide insights into how they might come apart” (Thelen, 1999, p. 400; see also: Pierson, 2000b, p. 263).”
BackgroundInfluentialSewerin, S., Cashore, B. W., & Howlett, M. P. (2022) · Policy & Politics · doi:10.1332/030557321x16528864819376 · Cited by 72
Heidebrecht, S. (2023) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/jcms.13488 · Cited by 85
The European Union as Crisis Manager: Patterns and Prospects
Boin, A., Ekengren, M., & Rhinard, M. (2013) · Cited by 63
Kangas, O. E., Lundberg, U., & Ploug, N. (2010) · Social Policy and Administration · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9515.2010.00713.x · Cited by 63
“…grasp the institutional prerequisites that either facilitate or inhibit changes in social policy programs (e.g. Steinmo, Thelen & Longstreth 1992; Pierson 1994; 2000; 2001; Esping-Andersen 1996; Bonoli 2000; Ferrera & Rhodes 2000; Bonoli & Palier 2001; Korpi and Palme 2002; Palier 2002; Timonen…”
BackgroundLiu, J. H.-F., Onar, N. F., & Woodward, M. R. (2014) · International Journal of Intercultural Relations · doi:10.1016/j.ijintrel.2014.08.012 · Cited by 68
Mascio, F. D., & Natalini, A. (2013) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719037.2013.790275 · Cited by 63
“The core of this concept is positive policy feedback, which can generate increasing return processes (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundTransforming Labor-Based Parties in Latin America
Levitsky, S. (2003) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511615641 · Cited by 70
Does Policy Matter? On Governments' Attempts to Control Unwanted MigrationPreprint
Thielemann, E. R. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.495631 · Cited by 63
Institutional Inequality and the Mobilization of the Family and Medical Leave Act: Rights on Leave
Albiston, C. R. (2012) · Cited by 62
Ragusa, J. M. (2010) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x10374170 · Cited by 61
“This limitation has resulted in a “snapshot view” of the policy process when we really need “moving pictures” (Pierson 2000, p. 263).”
BackgroundBreaking Out of Carbon Lock-In: Malaysia’s Path to Decarbonization
Susskind, L. E., Chun, J., Goldberg, S., Gordon, J. A., Smith, G., & Zaerpoor, Y. (2020) · Frontiers in Built Environment · doi:10.3389/fbuil.2020.00021 · Cited by 63
“The path dependence literature points to several processes through which policies become entrenched (i.e., locked-in) as the cost of reversal increases over time (Pierson, 2000; Levin et al., 2012).”
BackgroundFeindt, P. H., Schwindenhammer, S., & Tosun, J. (2020) · Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/13876988.2020.1785875 · Cited by 72
“Both evolutionary and revolutionary models of policy paradigm shifts are closely linked to concepts of path dependency in public policy (Pierson 1993, 2000).”
BackgroundReversing delegation? Politicization, de‐delegation, and non‐majoritarian institutions
Thatcher, M., Sweet, A. S., & Rangoni, B. (2022) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12709 · Cited by 66
Legitimation capacity: System-level resources and political skills in public policy
Woo, J. J., Ramesh, M., & Howlett, M. P. (2015) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1016/j.polsoc.2015.09.008 · Cited by 67
“That is, the institutional stability and authority enjoyed by the government in a given society is dependent upon underlying socio-political forces and beliefs that either inform and sustain prevailing institutions or drive their change (Hall & Thelen, 2009; Howlett & Cashore, 2009; Peters, Pierre, & King, 2005; Piers…”
BackgroundPath Dependency in Marketing Systems
Layton, R., & Duffy, S. M. (2018) · Journal of Macromarketing · doi:10.1177/0276146718787012 · Cited by 69
“(Pierson, 2000 p. 264) “The future can therefore cast a shadow back upon the present and thereby affect the current strategic situation.””
BackgroundHiteva, R. P., & Foxon, T. J. (2021) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120525 · Cited by 62
“Pierson (2000) highlights the role of adaptive expectations in producing positive feedback to reinforce such action, as well as high (material and cultural) start-up costs, which may act as barriers in areas where collective action is missing or limited, creating potential for lock-in of…”
BackgroundInfluentialHarrison, K. (2002) · Governance · doi:10.1111/1468-0491.00180 · Cited by 62
Skocpol, T. R. (2003) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511803963.013 · Cited by 63
Zur Theoriefähigkeit makro-sozialer Analysen
Mayntz, R. (2002) · MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) · Cited by 88
Towards a More Dynamic Theory of Capitalist VarietyPreprint
Deeg, R., & Jackson, G. (2006) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.905556 · Cited by 62
After renaissance: China’s multilateral offensive in the developing world
Sohn, I. (2011) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/1354066110392083 · Cited by 62
“This positive feedback is similar to the concept of ‘increasing returns’ whereby actors reinforce the dominant logic, and the costs of switching to alternatives are heightened (Pierson, 2000; Thelen, 1999).”
BackgroundClift, B. (2019) · Comparative European Politics · doi:10.1057/s41295-019-00186-1 · Cited by 59
“Where such arrangements come to exhibit early increasing returns, they ostensibly reduce the space for competitive challenges, giving rise to self-sustaining policy orders (Pierson 2000, 2004).”
BackgroundFieldhouse, E., Green, J., Evans, G., Mellon, J., Prosser, C., Schmitt, H., & van der Eijk, C. (2019) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198800583.001.0001 · Cited by 206
Politics of climate change and energy policy in Japan: Is green transformation likely?
Ohta, H., & Barrett, B. F. D. (2023) · Earth System Governance · doi:10.1016/j.esg.2023.100187 · Cited by 61
Koch, J. (2008) · Schmalenbach Business Review · doi:10.1007/bf03396759 · Cited by 61
Zittel, T. (2003) · Journal of Legislative Studies · doi:10.1080/1357233042000246855 · Cited by 61
Sharmeen, F., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. J. P. (2014) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.12.011 · Cited by 68
Path Dependence and Value-Driven Issues: The Comparative Politics of Stem Cell Research
Banchoff, T. (2005) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2005.0014 · Cited by 60
The Marketplace of Revolution: How Consumer Politics Shaped American Independence
Balleisen, E. J. (2005) · The Business History Review · doi:10.1017/s0007680500080600 · Cited by 61
Autonomy or democratic cultural policy: that is the question
Blomgren, R. (2012) · International Journal of Cultural Policy · doi:10.1080/10286632.2012.708861 · Cited by 61
“Institutional settings, both formal and informal, have through a long history and by what is called path-dependency built up institutional relations and ideas of what can be seen as the ‘right way’ to talk about cultural policy and define what problems that should set agenda (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundBreaking New Paths: Theory and Method in Path Dependence Research
Dobusch, L., & Kapeller, J. (2013) · Schmalenbach Business Review · doi:10.1007/bf03396859 · Cited by 66
“…of “increasing returns” has especially inspired criticism (Arrow (2000)) and is prone to misunderstandings, as its clear-cut mathematical meaning interferes with its metaphorical usage, mainly in the field of political science (see, for example, Pierson (2000); Thelen (2003); and Kay (2006)).”
BackgroundWhat difference can a path make? Regional democracy promotion regimes in the Americas and Africa
Legler, T., & Tieku, T. K. (2010) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510341003700337 · Cited by 61
Normann, H. E. (2019) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2019.03.007 · Cited by 57
Social Movements and Organization Theory: Movements Penetrating Organizations
Davis, G., McAdam, D., Scott, W., & Zald, M. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511791000.013 · Cited by 62
Eikeland, P. O., & Inderberg, T. H. J. (2015) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2015.09.008 · Cited by 60
The dimension of water in Central Asia: security concerns and the long road of capacity building
Abdolvand, B., Mez, L., Winter, K., et al. (2014) · Environmental Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3579-9 · Cited by 60
“Path dependency is defined as the consequences of an historic event or development that will affect potential outcomes of a sequence of events occurring after that event (Pierson 2000, p 252).”
BackgroundThe shock routine: economic crisis and the nature of social policy responses
van Hooren, F., Kaasch, A., & Starke, P. (2014) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2014.887757 · Cited by 69
“Second, and related, critical juncture is intimately tied to the concept of institutional path dependence (Mahoney 2000; Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundThe Importance of Ideas: An A Priori Critical Juncture Framework
Hogan, J. (2007) · Dublin City University Open Access Institutional Repository (Dublin City University) · doi:10.21427/d7dn5c · Cited by 60
Shifting East Asian Approaches to Home Ownership and the Housing Welfare Pillar
Ronald, R., & Doling, J. (2010) · International Journal of Housing Policy · doi:10.1080/14616718.2010.506740 · Cited by 60
Policy Tools and Institutional Change: Comparing education policies in Norway, Sweden and England
Helgøy, I., & Homme, A. (2006) · Journal of Public Policy · doi:10.1017/s0143814x0600050x · Cited by 61
“For example, Pierson (I998,2000) claims that policy legacies constrain the range of options available to policy makers, and the organisational and political capacities of important (education) policy stakeholders are two key factors. We make use of Thelen's (2003) view on institutional change, which claims that instit…”
BackgroundReeves, A., Steele, S. L., Stückler, D., McKee, M., Amato‐Gauci, A. J., & Semenza, J. C. (2017) · The Lancet HIV · doi:10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30217-x · Cited by 59
Sellers, J. M., Lidström, A., & Bae, Y. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108672337 · Cited by 84
Poupeau, F. (2013) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.1637 · Cited by 59
Political Studies as Narrative and Science, 1880–2000
Bevir, M. (2006) · Political Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9248.2006.00616.x · Cited by 59
Community and Economic Development: Seeking Common Ground in Discourse and in Practice
Lejano, R. P., & Wessells, A. T. (2006) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1080/00420980600831684 · Cited by 59
Limiting the Unintended Consequences of Institutional Change
Cortell, A. P., & Peterson, S. (2001) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414001034007003 · Cited by 58
Adapting to Sea‐Level Rise: Centralization or Decentralization in Polycentric Governance Systems?
Lubell, M. N., & Robbins, M. (2021) · Policy Studies Journal · doi:10.1111/psj.12430 · Cited by 68
Jaehrling, K., & Méhaut, P. (2012) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mws016 · Cited by 59
Koch, J., Eisend, M., & Petermann, A. (2009) · BuR - Business Research · doi:10.1007/bf03343529 · Cited by 63
Armstrong, E. A. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511791000.009 · Cited by 57
From robustness to resilience: avoiding policy traps in the long term
Nair, S., & Howlett, M. P. (2016) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-016-0387-z · Cited by 59
“…a result of ‘policy legacies’ that actively generate institutional routines and procedures that force decision-making, in particular directions by eliminating or distorting the range of policy options available (Pierson 2000, 2004), such as fossil-fuel intensive energy system lock-ins (Unruh 2000).”
BackgroundWang, B., Li, T., & Yao, Z. (2017) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.054 · Cited by 59
“Once random historical economic events have selected a particular institutional path, some dynamically increasing returns may drive institutions into a self-reinforcing and self-reproducing process (Arthur, 1989; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundHassel, A. (2002) · British Journal of Industrial Relations · doi:10.1111/1467-8543.00234 · Cited by 59
“Contributions on institutional change based on transaction cost economics (North 1990) and theories of path dependency (Pierson 2000) have long made these points.”
Möller, U., & Bjereld, U. (2010) · Cooperation and Conflict · doi:10.1177/0010836710386870 · Cited by 58
“Path dependency signifies a social process which underlines ‘the causal relevance of preceding stages in a temporal sequence’ (Pierson, 2000: 252).”
BackgroundInfluentialGómez, E. J. (2012) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-1898821 · Cited by 58
“Alternatively, others believe that a high level of sunk costs, such as an excessive amount of political or financial support for policies during the first few years of their creation, makes it too costly to transform them for greater efficiency later (David 1985; Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundAdam, C., Knill, C., & Fernández‐i‐Marín, X. (2016) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-016-9265-x · Cited by 60
“This argument ranks prominently within research adopting a perspective of historical institutionalism (Pierson 2000; Hall and Taylor 1996; Thelen 1999).”
BackgroundForm over function in finance: international institutional design by bricolage
Kalyanpur, N., & Newman, A. L. (2017) · Review of International Political Economy · doi:10.1080/09692290.2017.1307777 · Cited by 58
“ing or bounded rationality (Jones, 2001; Pierson, 2000), the object of”
BackgroundGeels, F. W., Pereira, G. I., & Pinkse, J. (2021) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102368 · Cited by 58
Dynamics of Power in Dutch Integration Politics
Uitermark, J. (2012) · Amsterdam University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9789048515837 · Cited by 61
Shostak, S., Conrad, P., & Horwitz, A. V. (2008) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/595570 · Cited by 58
“Sara Shostak and Peter Conrad Brandeis University Allan V. Horwitz Rutgers University Both advocacy for and critiques of the Human Genome Project assume a self-sustaining relationship between genetics and medicalization.”
BackgroundInfluentialRegressive Taxation and the Welfare State
Katô, J. (2003) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511510212.002 · Cited by 56
Lanford, D., & Quadagno, J. S. (2015) · Sociological Perspectives · doi:10.1177/0731121415587605 · Cited by 58
Puustinen, S., Mäntysalo, R., Hytönen, J., & Jarenko, K. (2016) · Planning Theory & Practice · doi:10.1080/14649357.2016.1245437 · Cited by 65
“In studying the role and weight of institutional trust in whatever planning context, a historical perspective is necessary (Burrage, 1990; Mahoney, 2000; North, 1990; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundThe Critical Juncture Concept’s Evolving Capacity to Explain Policy Change
Hogan, J. (2019) · European Policy Analysis · doi:10.1002/epa2.1057 · Cited by 65
Event and Process: An Exercise in Analytical Ethnography
Scheffer, T. (2007) · Human Studies · doi:10.1007/s10746-007-9055-8 · Cited by 56
“While some events are ‘‘ground-breaking,’’ others remain ‘‘marginal.’’ This fits the insight from historical sociology, or from sequential analysis more generally, that ‘‘earlier parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens ‘too late’ may have no effect, although it might have been of g…”
BackgroundPolicy Punctuations in Mature Welfare States
Jensen, C. (2009) · Journal of Public Policy · doi:10.1017/s0143814x09990080 · Cited by 57
Restructuring Authority and Territoriality
Ansell, C. (2004) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511617072.002 · Cited by 58
The Pandemic and the Transformation of Liberal International Order
Huang, Q. (2020) · Journal of Chinese Political Science · doi:10.1007/s11366-020-09698-0 · Cited by 66
“These institutions can be “sticky” and resistant to changes [43].”
BackgroundWhen code isn’t law: rethinking regulation for artificial intelligence
Judge, B., Nitzberg, M., & Russell, S. (2024) · Policy and Society · doi:10.1093/polsoc/puae020 · Cited by 91
Rethinking the Judicial Settlement of Reconstruction
Brandwein, P. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511781650 · Cited by 57
Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pierson, Paul
- ORCID
- Pierson, Paul
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 251-267
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2147111138
- Semantic Scholar
- 274439eda2c6c9e513794e1ee8f8eb9ac952431c
- Cited by
- 8,094
- References
- 97
- Citations by year
- 2026: 608 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 379 · 2023: 413 · 2022: 422 · 2021: 448 · 2020: 513 · 2019: 528 · 2018: 389 · 2017: 302 · 2016: 332 · 2015: 318 · 2014: 338 · 2013: 319 · 2012: 307
- FWCI
- 487.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 5174 d)
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Theory and Institutions
- Keywords
- path dependence, increasing returns, historical institutionalism, political development, critical junctures, institutional change, political process
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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