The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Open accessAbstract
It is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent. The article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in increasing returns.
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Claims the paper makes
6 of 43 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Increasing returns arguments help explain the prevalence of pockets of specialized economic activity, from Sili con Valley to the high-end textile manufacturers of Northern Italy.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Description (indexed under “8. Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning”; no page given) says the book applies increasing-returns ideas to the development of industrial clusters such as Silicon Valley. The passages found do not mention Northern Italy or its high-end textile manufacturers, so that example is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“4. Potential Path-Inefficiency. The outcome that becomes locked-in may not in fact generate higher pay-offs than a foregone alternative over the long run.In this case, the process may be called path-inefficient.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy shows a table-of-contents entry for “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” (no page given), but not the chapter’s argument. Searches for path-inefficiency and for locked-in outcomes versus foregone alternatives returned no passage addressing their long-run pay-offs. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“1. Unpredictability.Because early events have a big impact and are partly random, many outcomes may be possible.We cannot predict ahead of time which of many possible end-states will be reached.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed passages headed “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” and “Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning” contain chapter titles, not the chapters’ arguments. Searches for unpredictable end-states and the effect of partly random early events found no passage in our copy that addresses the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This essay argues that they are.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Polya urn processes exhibit increasing returns or positive feedback.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions will often entail high fixed or start-up costs, and involve con siderable learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each step along a particular path produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic growth generates the kind of positive feedback that distinguishes increasing returns or path dependent processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-on any individual trial, the ratio will eventually reach an equilibrium.Since later draws in a particular series contribute only minutely to the distri bution of balls in the urn, the distribution settles down onto a stable path.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparative advantage is not simply given, it is often created by a sequence of events over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 55
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Romer 1986 source
The Introduction says that increasing returns associated with knowledge are capable of explaining historical growth. Section III, “Motivation and Evidence,” reports output growth exceeding measured input growth and says the evidence does not rule out increasing returns as an explanation. The claim’s tentative wording reflects the paper’s caution; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Romer 1990 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites David 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
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In the paper
“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Lindblom 1977
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
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In the paper
“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
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In the paper
“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Collier 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Skowronek 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites White 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stinchcombe 1968
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Ikenberry 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
“Assume that the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years.In this context, effects after the election cycle do not count for much21.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
“Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The US health care reform episodes are representative enough of politics that conclusions about the difficulty of reforming deeply institutionalized policy drawn from them extend beyond health care.
“Thus even when an area of public policy is widely seen as problematic, it may be extremely diffi cult to engineer serious reforms if the policy has become deeply institutional ized.”
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The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“the so-called path dependency of welfare institutions is stronger in more developed welfare states (Boone etal., 2018; Pierson, 2000)”
From Public opinion on basic income: Mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision (2020) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Established conventions often remain established long after their original legitimation has dropped away precisely because agreeing to change – funding it, designing it and implanting it – is often extraordinarily difficult (Pierson, 2000).”
From Annual Research Review: Shifting from ‘normal science’ to neurodiversity in autism science (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Citations
Cites
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
North, D. C. (1990) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808678 · Cited by 32,691 · cited 4×
“This matrix, he emphasizes, "produces massive increasing returns" (North 1990a, 95).”
BackgroundInfluentialInstitutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance
Munger, M. C., & North, D. C. (1991) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/1060065 · Cited by 25,224
Increasing returns and long-run growth
Romer, P. M. (1986) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261420 · Cited by 20,149
Olson, M. (1965) · doi:10.4159/9780674041660 · Cited by 14,191
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Golembiewski, R. T., & Olson, M. (1966) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2091298 · Cited by 11,371
Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state: The case of economic policymaking in Britain
Hall, P. A. (1993) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422246 · Cited by 7,369
Lukes, S. (1974) · Power · doi:10.1007/978-0-230-80257-5_2 · Cited by 6,654
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North, D. C., & Weingast, B. R. (1989) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050700009451 · Cited by 5,300
Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy
Arthur, W. (2026) · doi:10.3998/mpub.10029 · Cited by 4,547
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Sorted by citations
Items 701–800 of 8,028
Maclean, L. M. (2002) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/bf02686231 · Cited by 83
Dekker, R., & Bekkers, V. (2015) · Government Information Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.giq.2015.09.007 · Cited by 76
“By path dependency wemean the tendency of government actions and policies to reflect earlier actions and policies (cf. Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundKruck, A., & Zangl, B. (2019) · International Theory · doi:10.1017/s1752971919000101 · Cited by 81
Bhardwaj, C., Axsen, J., Kern, F., et al. (2020) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2020.03.011 · Cited by 76
Designing policy for the long term: agency, policy feedback and policy change
Sewerin, S., Béland, D., & Cashore, B. W. (2020) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-020-09391-2 · Cited by 85
Emphasizing urgency of climate change is insufficient to increase policy support
Fesenfeld, L., & Rinscheid, A. (2021) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.010 · Cited by 81
Institutional change and institutional persistence
Acemoğlu, D., Egorov, G., & Сонин, К. И. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815874-6.00021-6 · Cited by 94
The paradox of the education race: how to win the ranking game by sailing to headwind
Simola, H., Rinne, R., Varjo, J., et al. (2013) · Journal of Education Policy · doi:10.1080/02680939.2012.758832 · Cited by 76
Pflieger, G., Kaufmann, V., Pattaroni, L., & Jemelin, C. (2009) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/0042098009104572 · Cited by 85
“According to the political scientist Paul Pierson (2000), these high costs of reversibility are linked to two key factors”
BackgroundInfluentialCasper, S. (2001) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199247757.003.0012 · Cited by 74
The Institutions Curse: Natural Resources, Politics, and Development
Menaldo, V. (2016) · Cited by 75
Understanding Institutional Weakness: Power and Design in Latin American Institutions
Brinks, D. M., Levitsky, S., & Murillo, M. V. (2019) · Cited by 75
Rethinking planning culture: a new institutionalist approach
Taylor, Z. (2013) · Town Planning Review · doi:10.3828/tpr.2013.36 · Cited by 76
Meyer‐Sahling, J., & Yesilkagit, K. (2011) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2011.544515 · Cited by 81
“Third, they distinguish an interactional level of analysis, which refers to contingent events, actor constellations and the decisions of political and social agents, which unleash processes of ‘increasing returns’ and ‘reactive sequences’ as described by Pierson (2000).”
The Importance of Ideas: An A Priori Critical Juncture Framework
Hogan, J., & Doyle, D. A. (2007) · Canadian Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0008423907071144 · Cited by 98
Davies, J. S. (2004) · International Journal of Urban and Regional Research · doi:10.1111/j.0309-1317.2004.00536.x · Cited by 76
“Negative synergy is another example of policy feedback (Pierson, 1993, 2000a) only in this case it is potentially destructive of path dependent trajectories that favour partnership.”
The Crisis of German and Japanese Capitalism
Vogel, S. K. (2001) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414001034010001 · Cited by 75
“I build here on the fundamental insight of the historical institutionalist school that suggests institutions shape preferences (Hall, 1999; Pierson, 2000; Steinmo, Thelen, & Longstreth, 1992).”
BackgroundAgents of privatization? Business groups and the rise of pension funds in Continental Europe
Naczyk, M. (2012) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mws012 · Cited by 70
Analyzing Path Dependence: Lessons from the Social Sciences
Mahoney, J. (2006) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9780230524644_9 · Cited by 78
Explaining the sudden creation of a banking supervisor for the euro area
Glöckler, G., Lindner, J., & Salines, M. (2016) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2016.1184296 · Cited by 74
“…alone appear insufficient to explain the observed change, as they cannot overcome the inherent explanatory weaknesses of the functional logic (Pierson 2000): a stable institutional design is described as serving functional needs and its change is evidence that the set-up did not fulfil those…”
BackgroundCoavoux, S., Boutet, M., & Zabban, V. (2016) · Games and Culture · doi:10.1177/1555412016676661 · Cited by 76
“Our first hypothesis explored why these games enjoyed a dominant position in the scientific production: We thus posited that there exists a ‘‘path dependence’’ (Pierson, 2000), orienting scholars toward this choice for their work, due to positive feedback mechanisms.”
BackgroundTowards a bridging concept for undesirable resilience in social-ecological systems
Dornelles, A. Z., Boyd, E., Nunes, R. J., Asquith, M., Boonstra, W. J., Delabre, I., Denney, J. M., Grimm, V., Jentsch, A., Nicholas, K. A., et al. (2020) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2020.15 · Cited by 76
“Scholars currently use a number of different terms to describe undesirable resilience, such as path dependency (Mahoney, 2000; Pierson, 2000), institutional inertia (Rosenschöld et al.”
Swilling, M., Nygaard, I., Kruger, W., et al. (2022) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102567 · Cited by 74
The Transformation of Welfare States?
Ellison, N. (2006) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203099490 · Cited by 74
Marchal, S., Marx, I., & Mechelen, N. V. (2014) · Journal of Social Policy · doi:10.1017/s0047279413000950 · Cited by 74
“Crises and social policy change The nature of crisis-triggered policy change: incremental or pathbreaking? An important strand of the welfare state change literature holds that pathbreaking change in social policy is hard to achieve (Hacker, 2002; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundHealth Care Reform in Germany: Patchwork Change within Established Governance Structures
Alt̀enstetter, C., & Busse, R. (2005) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-30-1-2-121 · Cited by 74
Morgan, K. J. (2002) · Politics & Society · doi:10.1177/0032329202030001005 · Cited by 74
L'Année de la régulation n° 7 (2003-2004)
Thelen, K. (2003) · Presses de Sciences Po eBooks · doi:10.3917/scpo.colle.2003.01.0013 · Cited by 74
Rinscheid, A. (2015) · European Policy Analysis · doi:10.18278/epa.1.2.3 · Cited by 74
Explaining the Iraq War: counterfactual theory, logic, and evidence
(2012) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.49-7143 · Cited by 74
Authoritarian environmentalism under democracy: Korea’s river restoration project
Han, H. (2015) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644016.2015.1051324 · Cited by 73
“…institutionalism’s idea that institutional development is path-dependent and institutions and identities are shaped by the historical context in which these factors are embedded (Pierson 2000), this study’s attention to path dependency has an implication for the study of environmental politics.”
BackgroundHowlett, M. P., & Rayner, J. (2008) · Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/13876980802468816 · Cited by 73
“…as the outcome of a series of more or less random conditions that combine over time to produce a locked-in trajectory of events (in this case, policy making) which, although very often suboptimal, can be exceptionally difficult to change (Pierson 2000, Greener 2002, Howlett and Rayner 2006c).”
BackgroundDaniels, R. J., Trebilcock, M. J., & Carson, L. D. (2010) · The American Journal of Comparative Law · doi:10.5131/ajcl.2010.0015 · Cited by 74
Rast, J. (2011) · Urban Affairs Review · doi:10.1177/1078087411418178 · Cited by 72
“Other scholars have focused more directly on the timing of historical events or processes relative to one another, emphasizing how outcomes are shaped by the sequences through which events unfold (Pierson 2000b; Hacker 2002; Orren and Skowronek 2004).”
BackgroundBargaining and the Interdependent Stages of Civil War Resolution
Findley, M. G. (2012) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002712453703 · Cited by 75
Sovacool, B. K., Iskandarova, M., & Hall, J. K. (2023) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.102954 · Cited by 112
Hard and Soft Densification Policies in the Paris City‐Region
Touati‐Morel, A. (2015) · International Journal of Urban and Regional Research · doi:10.1111/1468-2427.12195 · Cited by 73
Musselin, C. (2009) · Revue du MAUSS · doi:10.3917/rdm.033.0069 · Cited by 73
Kiser, E., & Karceski, S. M. (2017) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-052615-025442 · Cited by 107
Behavioral rationality as a foundation for public policy studies
Jones, B. D. (2017) · Cognitive Systems Research · doi:10.1016/j.cogsys.2017.01.003 · Cited by 84
“Paul Pierson (2000) brought the notion of increasing returns and path dependency into the study of political science, integrating it within the framework of historical institutionalism.”
Understanding When MNCs can Overcome Institutional Distance: A Research Agenda
Fortwengel, J. (2017) · Management International Review · doi:10.1007/s11575-017-0327-x · Cited by 72
“Meanwhile, there is some research suggesting that institutions can become hyper-stable or path-dependent (North 1990), suggesting that deviant forms of behavior are largely inconceivable (Pierson 2000) or highly penalized (North 1990).”
Background‘We nicked stuff from all over the place’: policy transfer or muddling through?
Dwyer, P., & Ellison, N. (2009) · Policy & Politics · doi:10.1332/030557309x435862 · Cited by 71
“…shifts (Hall, 1993); another, not entirely unrelated, is to take note of historical institutionalist accounts of policy change (Steinmo, 1992; Pierson, 1998, 2000), which examine policy transfer through the lens of existing norms and arrangements that are held to constrain the nature and…”
BackgroundThe Politics of Inequality in America: A Political Economy Framework
Jacobs, L. R., & Soss, J. (2010) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.041608.140134 · Cited by 72
Bringing Asia into the comparative capitalism perspective
Storz, C., Amable, B., Casper, S., & Lechevalier, S. (2013) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mwt004 · Cited by 69
Jordan, A., & Moore, B. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108779869 · Cited by 76
Why convene referendums? Explaining choices in EU constitutional politics
Closa, C. (2007) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501760701656478 · Cited by 74
“According to Pierson, an additional factor is that politicians calculate in the short term (Pierson 2000) and cannot foresee unintended consequences of their calculated rational decisions.”
BackgroundFrom Pragmatism to Dogmatism: European Union Governance, Policy Paradigms and Financial Meltdown
Mügge, D. (2011) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563461003789753 · Cited by 72
“1992 ; Pierson 2000a , 2000b ); institutions can thus become explanatory factors of politics in their own right.”
BackgroundRemoulding the Critical Junctures Approach
Hogan, J. (2006) · Canadian Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0008423906060203 · Cited by 127
Re-imagining evolutionary economic geography
Kogler, D. F., Evenhuis, E., Giuliani, E., Martin, R., Uyarra, E., & Boschma, R. A. (2023) · Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society · doi:10.1093/cjres/rsad029 · Cited by 74
The temporal dimension of knowledge and the limits of policy appraisal: biofuels policy in the UK
Dunlop, C. A. (2009) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-009-9101-7 · Cited by 70
“This opacity and the cognitive limitations experienced by decision-makers make it particularly prone to singleloop learning (Lindblom 1959; North 1990, 1994; Pierson 2000, 2004; Simon 1957).”
BackgroundImplementing and complying with EU governance outputs
Treib, O. (2006) · Living Reviews in European Governance · doi:10.12942/lreg-2006-1 · Cited by 74
Deep uncertainty and the transition to a low-carbon economy
Haas, C. S., Jahns, H., Kempa, K., & Moslener, U. (2023) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103060 · Cited by 78
From Bureaucracy to Profession: Remaking the Educational Sector for the Twenty-First Century
Mehta, J. D. (2013) · Harvard Educational Review · doi:10.17763/haer.83.3.kr08797621362v05 · Cited by 78
“, whether to organize health care as a public good or a private market) affect subsequent events by creating the norms, structures, and distribution of power that in turn shape later decisions and actions (Hacker, 1998; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundThe Side Effects of the Bologna Process on National Institutional Settings: The Case of France
Musselin, C. (2009) · Higher education dynamics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-9505-4_8 · Cited by 71
Lounsbury, M. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511791000.006 · Cited by 61
Urban Resilience and New Institutional Theory – A Happy Couple for Urban and Regional Studies?
Lang, T. (2010) · German annual of spatial research and policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12785-4_2 · Cited by 71
“dependent developments (Pierson, 2000; North, 1990) and institutional thickness (Amin & Thrift, 1994) sometimes leading to functional, cognitive, or political lockin (Grabher, 1993) hindering new forms of development.”
BackgroundGermany's Institutional Power and the EMU Regime after the Crisis: Towards a Germanized Euro Area?
Steinberg, F., & Vermeiren, M. (2015) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/jcms.12255 · Cited by 71
Kuipers, S. (2005) · Amsterdam University Press eBooks · doi:10.5117/9789053568088 · Cited by 67
Decisions as Dynamic Equilibriums in Erratic Policy Processes
van Buuren, A., & Gerrits, L. (2008) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719030802003038 · Cited by 70
“As long as the amount of effort required to change a situation exceeds the benefits of maintaining it, the lock-in continues to exist (Pierson 2000) and the decision remains in place (Gerrits and Marks 2007).”
BackgroundHealth Policy in Denmark: Leaving the Decentralized Welfare Path?
Vrangbæk, K., & Christiansen, T. (2005) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-30-1-2-29 · Cited by 70
“This is particularly due to the collective nature of politics; the status quo bias of political institutions; power asymmetries related to current confi gurations; and the institutional density, complexity, and opacity of politics (Pierson 2000: 257).”
BackgroundInstitutional Dynamics and American Political Development
Sheingate, A. (2013) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-040113-161139 · Cited by 74
Agency and the Structure of Party Competition: Alignment, Stability and the Role of Political Elites
Deegan‐Krause, K., & Enyedi, Z. (2010) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402381003654742 · Cited by 70
“According to Pierson ( 2000 ) the cost of switching paths is higher in politics than in the economy because of the high start-up costs of collective action, the high density of institutions, the ability of political authority to enhance original and minor asymmetries of power, and the intrinsically complex and opaque…”
BackgroundBrouard, S., Grossman, E., Guinaudeau, I., Persico, S., & Froio, C. (2018) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0032321717745433 · Cited by 75
“Policies change slowly if at all (Lindblom, 1959; Pierson, 2000) in the face of all the problems that constantly emerge (Adler and Wilkerson, 2013; Wildavsky, 1964).”
BackgroundThe Origins of Conflict in Polycentric Governance Systems
Lubell, M. N., Mewhirter, J. M., & Berardo, R. (2020) · Public Administration Review · doi:10.1111/puar.13159 · Cited by 70
“The evolution of polycentric systems is constrained by social-ecological context (Ostrom 2009b; Bodin 2017), and characterized by path dependence where earlier experiences have strong legacy effects on current processes (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundDo the Root Causes of Civil War Matter? On Using Knowledge to Improve Peacebuilding Interventions
Woodward, S. L. (2007) · Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding · doi:10.1080/17502970701302789 · Cited by 69
“…of the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations alone identified 642 separate activity lines in their current programming.10 Like all bureaucracies, innovation to alter long-standing technical expertise, operating procedures, and crucial tacit knowledge carries high costs and risks (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundA public policy approach to understanding the nature and causes of foreign policy failure
McConnell, A. (2016) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2015.1127278 · Cited by 70
“Different conceptual frameworks imply different forms of impact, e.g., policy cycle implications that policy outcomes prompt policy-makers to reflect and learn (Althaus et al 2013), path dependency and the inference that policies generally help reproduce dominant ideological pathways (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundReshaping institutions : bricolage processes in smallholder forestry in the Amazon
de Koning, J. (2011) · doi:10.18174/160232 · Cited by 69
Measuring the diffusion of eParticipation: A survey on Italian local government
Medaglia, R. (2007) · Information Polity · doi:10.3233/ip-2007-0134 · Cited by 69
“…because from a policy practice point of view, the value of understanding what affects a specific course of adoption is at its highest when the policy is still in its formative phase: possibilities of intervention by policy makers in fact diminish with time, following path dependency patterns [41].”
Can We Generalize from Case Studies?
Steinberg, P. F. (2015) · Global Environmental Politics · doi:10.1162/glep_a_00316 · Cited by 78
How to consider history in landscape ecology: patterns, processes, and pathways
Tappeiner, U., Leitinger, G., Zarina, A., & Bürgi, M. (2020) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-020-01163-w · Cited by 78
“…using the concept of path dependence, originally developed in economics (David 1985; Arthur 1989), but further adapted in political science (e.g. Pierson 2000), historical ecology (Crumley 2007; Szabó 2015), historical sociology (e.g. Goldstone 1998; Mahoney 2000; Djelic and Quack 2007), and…”
BackgroundMethodBayerlein, L., Knill, C., & Steinebach, Y. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108864671 · Cited by 106
Vacina contra Covid-19: arena da disputa federativa brasileira
Fleury, S., & Fava, V. M. D. (2022) · Saúde em Debate · doi:10.1590/0103-11042022e117 · Cited by 69
Farrell, H. J. (2018) · Knowledge and space · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-75328-7_2 · Cited by 84
“Political scientists have turned to path dependence to explain why welfare states have endured despite substantial changes in party politics (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundStudying Policy Design Quality in Comparative Perspective
Fernández‐i‐Marín, X., Knill, C., & Steinebach, Y. (2021) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055421000186 · Cited by 68
“As a consequence, policy makers are often bound by decisions made in the past and must adhere to preexisting policy targets and instruments — even when the chosen solutions are not the optimal ones (Pierson 2000).”
Weak, Despotic, or Inclusive? How State Type Emerges from State versus Civil Society Competition
Acemoğlu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2022) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055422000740 · Cited by 67
“Increasing returns to collective action are also emphasized in Marwell and Oliver (1993) and Pearson (2000).”
BackgroundUnlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge
Allen, C., & Malekpour, S. (2023) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-023-01342-z · Cited by 79
“The creation of new policies also occurs in the context of existing policies, providing resources and incentives for different political actors that result in policy feedback effects which alter the capacities and interests of actors (Pierson 2000; Pierson 1993).”
BackgroundInstitutional Development through Policy-Making: A Case Study of the Brazilian Central Bank
Taylor, M. M. (2009) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887109000161 · Cited by 67
“17 pierson 2000, 265.”
Institutional fragmentation and coordination initiatives in western European welfare states
Champion, C., & Bonoli, G. (2011) · Journal of European Social Policy · doi:10.1177/0958928711412220 · Cited by 74
“In this regard, the concept of path dependence has become increasingly popular in the welfare state literature (Ebbinghaus, 2005; Pierson, 2000; Torfing, 2001).”
BackgroundCairney, P., & Geyer, R. (2017) · Complexity Governance & Networks · doi:10.20377/cgn-56 · Cited by 68
“For example, when an initial commitment to a policy becomes established it produces ‘increasing returns’ over time: as people adapt to, and build ‘institutions’ around, the initial decision, it becomes increasingly costly to choose a different path (Pierson, 2000; Room, 2011, 7-18).”
BackgroundInstitutional arrangements for water governance
Hassenforder, É., & Barone, S. (2018) · International Journal of Water Resources Development · doi:10.1080/07900627.2018.1431526 · Cited by 76
“Historical neo-institutionalists posit that to understand the emergence of an institution one must analyze its history and path-dependence phenomena (North, 1990; Pierson, 1993, 2000).”
BackgroundIntroduction to the Special Issue on the Evolution of Institutions
Blyth, M. M., Hodgson, G. M., Lewis, O. A., & Steinmo, S. H. (2011) · Journal of Institutional Economics · doi:10.1017/s1744137411000270 · Cited by 71
Accommodating Creative Knowledge : A literature review from a European perspective. ACRE Report 1
Musterd, S., Bontje, Chapain, C., Kovács, Z., & Murie, A. (2007) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · Cited by 67
Designs on governance: development of policy instruments and dynamics in governance
Voß, J.-P. (2007) · University of Twente Research Information · doi:10.3990/1.9789036525855 · Cited by 68
The Foundations of Complexity, the Complexity of Foundations
Cudworth, E., & Hobden, S. (2010) · Philosophy of the Social Sciences · doi:10.1177/0048393110388038 · Cited by 68
“The notion of nonlinear development and path dependency has been used to understand the role of political institutions that “lock-in” certain paths to development (Nee and Cao 1999; Pierson 2000, 2001).”
MethodWidmaier, W. W. (2015) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2015.1115890 · Cited by 66
“Of more lasting importance was Reagan’s mid-1981 dismissal of illegally striking Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO) workers – later cast by Volcker (2000) as having had ‘a profound effect on the aggressiveness of labour’. Moreover, PATCO represented a particularly appealing target as its stand w…”
BackgroundSpicer, J. S., Kay, T., & Ganz, M. (2019) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mwz014 · Cited by 75
Reggi, L., & Gil-García, J. R. (2020) · Government Information Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.giq.2020.101562 · Cited by 71
“Instead of aiming at redressing imbalances, policy makers seemed to focus on the traditional strengths of regional ICT development, showing a form of path dependence on previous policy choices (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundConceptualizing the Policy Tools of Spatial Planning
Stead, D. (2021) · Journal of Planning Literature · doi:10.1177/0885412221992283 · Cited by 67
“As such, there can be a substantial amount of inertia and resistance to changing policy tools, especially when the alternatives are less-familiar to policy makers (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundCarter, D., Weible, C. M., Siddiki, S., & Basurto, X. (2015) · Journal of Theoretical Politics · doi:10.1177/0951629815603494 · Cited by 68
“…that generate them, successes and failures in policy implementation, and the politics that are stimulated by the adoption of different policy designs (Hood, 1983; Linder and Peters, 1989; Lowi, 1972; Mazmanian and Sabatier, 1981; Pierson, 2000; Salamon, 2002; Schneider and Ingram, 1997).”
BackgroundBrüggemann, M., & Königslöw, K. K. (2009) · European Journal of Communication · doi:10.1177/0267323108098944 · Cited by 67
(Re)Placing Path Dependence: A Response to the Debate
Martin, R. (2011) · International Journal of Urban and Regional Research · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2427.2011.01091.x · Cited by 67
Continuity and Change in Social Policy
Béland, D., & Powell, M. A. (2016) · Social Policy and Administration · doi:10.1111/spol.12207 · Cited by 68
“Pierson (2000) stresses the role of increasing returns and network externalities.”
BackgroundHauptmeier, M. (2012) · British Journal of Industrial Relations · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8543.2012.00891.x · Cited by 66
An integrative framework for transformative social change: a case in global wildlife trade
Naito, R., Zhao, J., & Chan, K. M. A. (2022) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-021-01081-z · Cited by 70
“Interests of powerful actors are frequently favored by institutional rules and norms, through which their socioeconomic and political dominance is reinforced and stabilized (Pierson 2000; Seto et al. 2016).”
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The Contested Politics of Public Value
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Stability and change in flood risk governance: on path dependencies and change agents
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“Path dependencies and reproduction mechanisms Path dependency refers – in the realm of policy analysis – to policies in which ‘preceding steps in a particular direction induce further movement in the same direction’ (Pierson, 2000, p. 252).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pierson, Paul
- ORCID
- Pierson, Paul
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 251-267
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2147111138
- Semantic Scholar
- 274439eda2c6c9e513794e1ee8f8eb9ac952431c
- Cited by
- 8,094
- References
- 97
- Citations by year
- 2026: 608 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 379 · 2023: 413 · 2022: 422 · 2021: 448 · 2020: 513 · 2019: 528 · 2018: 389 · 2017: 302 · 2016: 332 · 2015: 318 · 2014: 338 · 2013: 319 · 2012: 307
- FWCI
- 487.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 5174 d)
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Theory and Institutions
- Keywords
- path dependence, increasing returns, historical institutionalism, political development, critical junctures, institutional change, political process
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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