The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 97 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 43 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics
Open accessAbstract
It is increasingly common for social scientists to describe political processes as path dependent. The article conceptualizes path dependence as a social process grounded in increasing returns.
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Claims the paper makes
6 of 43 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Increasing returns arguments help explain the prevalence of pockets of specialized economic activity, from Sili con Valley to the high-end textile manufacturers of Northern Italy.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Description (indexed under “8. Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning”; no page given) says the book applies increasing-returns ideas to the development of industrial clusters such as Silicon Valley. The passages found do not mention Northern Italy or its high-end textile manufacturers, so that example is not supported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“4. Potential Path-Inefficiency. The outcome that becomes locked-in may not in fact generate higher pay-offs than a foregone alternative over the long run.In this case, the process may be called path-inefficient.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy shows a table-of-contents entry for “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” (no page given), but not the chapter’s argument. Searches for path-inefficiency and for locked-in outcomes versus foregone alternatives returned no passage addressing their long-run pay-offs. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“1. Unpredictability.Because early events have a big impact and are partly random, many outcomes may be possible.We cannot predict ahead of time which of many possible end-states will be reached.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur (1994) sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The indexed passages headed “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Small Events” and “Path Dependence, Self-Reinforcement, and Human Learning” contain chapter titles, not the chapters’ arguments. Searches for unpredictable end-states and the effect of partly random early events found no passage in our copy that addresses the claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This essay argues that they are.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Polya urn processes exhibit increasing returns or positive feedback.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions will often entail high fixed or start-up costs, and involve con siderable learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each step along a particular path produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Economic growth generates the kind of positive feedback that distinguishes increasing returns or path dependent processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-on any individual trial, the ratio will eventually reach an equilibrium.Since later draws in a particular series contribute only minutely to the distri bution of balls in the urn, the distribution settles down onto a stable path.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparative advantage is not simply given, it is often created by a sequence of events over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Probably not a substantial claim. 55
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Romer and others argued that increasing returns associated with economic applications of knowledge could help account for the anomaly.Unlike capital and labor, many aspects of knowledge are non-rivaltheir use in one firm does not prevent their use in another.Thus, a single gain in knowledge can be applied in many settings, and can lead to dramatic improvements in productivity.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Romer 1986 source
The Introduction says that increasing returns associated with knowledge are capable of explaining historical growth. Section III, “Motivation and Evidence,” reports output growth exceeding measured input growth and says the evidence does not rule out increasing returns as an explanation. The claim’s tentative wording reflects the paper’s caution; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Romer 1990 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As Brian Arthur and Paul David have argued, under certain conditions a single technology may achieve a decisive advantage over competitors, even though it is not necessarily the most efficient one in the long-run (Arthur 1994;David 1985).Once the initial advantage is gained, however, feedback effects may lock in this technology, excluding other alter natives.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites David 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Arthur (1994) has shown that many of the features of this case have a greater range of application, but not all of them.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites Arthur 1994 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The available copy contains a description and table of contents, including chapters on path dependence, but no passage stating which features apply more broadly or which do not. Searches for the sentence and a paraphrase found no discussion that settles the claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that there has been an explosion of interest in path dependence among economists”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
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In the paper
“Despite high initial aspirations, the administration eventually suffered a crushing defeat.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Following their historic victory, Congressional Republicans launched a sweeping proposal to cut and reform Medicare and Medicaid as part of their push to balance the budget and finance an extensive array of tax cuts.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Health care was on the verge of becoming a trillion dollar industry, and those who benefited from these arrangements devoted enormous resources to preserving the status quo.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In this context, it is worth noting that Arthur's arguments about technology are not really about the technology itself but about the characteristics of a technology in interaction with certain quali ties of related social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Arthur argues that four features of a technology and its social context gen erate increasing returns:”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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- Not matched
In the paper
“Once in place institutions are hard to change, and they have a tremendous impact on the possibilities for generating sustained economic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important, they suggest the need to think of social processes, including political ones, as fun damentally historical in nature.Politics occurs in time, and political outcomes are the result of temporal processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > 4. Potential Path-Inefficiency.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“(1) Large set-up or fixed costs.These create a high pay-off for further investments in a given technology.By moving to larger production runs, fixed costs can be spread over more output, leading to lower unit costs.When set-up or fixed costs are high, individuals and organizations have a strong incentive to identify and stick with a single option.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“-for each individual trial we have no idea what the eventual ratio of red to black balls will be; it could be 99.9% red, or 0.01% red, or anything in between.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > I. The Distinctiveness of Increasing Returns Processes
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, they can help orient political scientists to a realisticwhich is to say modest -set of aspirations regarding the possibilities for achieving parsimony and predictability in the study of politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whatever the appropriate policy implications of path dependence in comparative advantage may be, however, its existence is now widely recognized in mainstream economics10.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“(2) Learning effects.Knowledge gained in the operation of complex systems also lead to higher returns from continuing use.With repetition, individuals learn how to use products more effectively, and their experiences are likely to spur further innovations in the product or in related activities.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“North argues that all the features identified in investigations of increasing returns in technology can be applied to institutions as well.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“by stretching the temporal horizons of political analysts, they can reorient both the answers given and the questions asked in ways that contribute to a richer appreciation of the sources of variation in political life.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many social interactions have precisely these features.New social initiativessuch as the creation of organizations or institutions -usually entail consider able start-up costs; individuals, and organizations, learn by doing; we often have powerful incentives to coordinate our activities with those of other social actors; it is frequently important to bet on the right horse, and therefore we adapt”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“First, he highlights the parallels between characteristics of technology and certain char acteristics of social interactions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“(3) Coordination effects.These occur when the individual receives increased benefits from a particular activity if others also adopt the same option.If technologies embody positive network externalities, a technology will become more attractive as more people use it.This enhanced appeal attracts more users, reinforcing the existing advantage.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most international trade, however, is North-North. Developed economies trade primarily with other developed countries, includ ing extensive exchanges within particular industries.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If the insti tutional matrix creates incentives for piracy, North observes, people will invest in becoming good pirates.Thus, where institutions fail to provide incentives to be economically productive, there is unlikely to be much eco nomic growth.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North 1990a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing returns provided an answer to this puzzle.Knowledge-intensive sectors will be prone to positive feedback.Countries which gain a lead in a particular field, for whatever reason, are likely to consolidate that lead over time.The result is a high degree of specialization.Even countries with quite similar initial endowments develop quite divergent areas of economic strength.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They can direct attention toward particular variables, and generate promising hypotheses about the sources of particular political phe nomena.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > Introduction1
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If a new technology is subject to increasing returns, being the fastest out of the gate (if only for reasons of historical accident) becomes key.With increasing returns, there are strong incentives for actors to focus on a single alternative, and to continue moving down a specific path once initial steps are taken in that direction.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“My view is that North has focused on only some of the appropriate parallels.There are other important ones.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead, what I would point out is that this effort to refute path dependence arguments in economics has very limited relevance for political scientists.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Like institutional development, the dynamics of collective action are highly path dependent, since they involve many of the qualities conducive to increasing returns: high set-up or fixed costs, coordina tion effects, and a prominent role for adaptive expectations19.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“Legally binding rules are not just a foundation for political activity (like property rights in the economy).They are instead the very essence of politics (Lindblom 1977;Moe 1990).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Lindblom 1977
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increasing Returns in fact characterize three of the most prominent features of political environments: processes of institutional development, pro cesses of collective action, and processes of social interpretation.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
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In the paper
“Politics is a far, far murkier environment.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Both formal institutions (such as constitutional arrangements) and public policies place extensive, legally-bind ing constraints on behavior.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In my view, Margolis and Liebowitz are more than a little complacent about the capacity of such mechanisms to fully internalize the considerable externalities that are central to increasing returns arguments.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > II. Path Dependence Arguments in Economics7
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In the paper
“Yet political actors, especially politicians, are often most interested in the short-term consequences of their actions; long-term effects are often heavily discounted.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“Most participants in politics (voters, members of interest group) engage in activities only sporadically.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“North's analysis, outlined in Part II, noted that institutions induce increasing returns processes that make reversals of course increasingly unattractive over time.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
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In the paper
“In short, problems of collective action abound in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is even harder to actually identify observable aspects of political perfor mance, or, if we believe that a system is not performing well, to determine which elements in these highly complex systems are responsible and what adjustment would lead to better results.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes? Checkable: unclear✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contexts of complex social interdependence, new institutions and policies will often generate high fixed costs, learning effects, coordination effects, and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The development of basic social understandings involve high start-up costs and learning effects; they are fre quently shared with other social actors in ways which create network effects and adaptive expectations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in politics the pursuit of such change faces two additional obstacles: the short time-horizons of political actors and the strong status quo bias (i.e., stickiness) associated with the decision rules governing most political institutions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Political actors often pursue a range of goals.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Their tools of action are often crude, such as the blunt instrument of the vote, and their actions have consequences only when aggregated.There are often long lags and complex causal chains connecting these political actions to political out comes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Institutions and policies may encourage individuals and organizations to develop specialized skills, make certain investments, purchase particular goods, or devote time and money to certain organizations.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Institutional Density of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Rather, politics gets stuck with the more difficult problems.Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.Thus, it is complex and ambiguous issues and problems that gravitate toward the public sphere.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Confirm ing information tends to be incorporated, while disconfirming information is filtered out.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus having shown in Part II that increasing returns processes are now seen as central to economics, I wish to argue here that these dynamics will be both more prevalent and more intense in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > m . Moving From Economics to Politics: The Applicability of Path Dependence Arguments The application of economic methods to the study of politics has been unquestionably fruitful.In areas such as the study of party competition (Downs), the formation of interest groups and social movements (Olson) and voting and legislative behavior (Arrow), imports from economics have illumi nated important features of the political landscape.The value of economists' academic exports is greatly enhanced, however, if the political science importers take careful account of the distinctive features of the "local" envi ronment (Moe 1990).Arguments drawn from economics must be sensitive to the quite different nature of the political world16.This is as true for arguments about path dependence and increasing returns as it has proven to be for other kinds of analysis.Politics differs from eco nomics in many ways.The key is to identify those aspects of the political envi ronment which are most relevant to an investigation of the sources and conse quences of path dependence.I divide this discussion into two parts.First, I consider three prominent aspects of politics which are conducive to increasing returns processes: (1) the extremely high density of institutions; (2) the central role of collective action; and (3) the intrinsic complexity and opacity of poli tics.After briefly explicating each of these characteristics, I discuss their rele vance to the current discussion.All of these features make increasing returns processes more prevalent in politics.They increase the likelihood that multiple paths will be potentially viable. In the second part of this discussion, I complement these claims by explain ing why the ameliorative mechanisms which Williamson and Margolis and Leibowitz identify in economic systems are less effective in correcting path dependence in politics.In particular, I emphasize three characteristics of poli tics; the weakness or absence of efficiency-enhancing mechanisms of competi tion and learning; the shorter time horizons of political actors, and the greater "stickiness" of political institutions.All of these features make increasing returns processes in politics more intense.They increase the difficulty of moving off a path once actors have started down it.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Discontent with the inefficiencies of the American health care system increased signifi cantly in the late 1980s and early 1990s.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Many alternatives might have been possible, and a dynamic of increasing returns may have locked in a particular option even though it originated by accident, or the factors that gave it an original advantage have long since passed away.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the Republican proposals ran into the same two problems that had hindered the Clinton administration's effort to move health care policy onto a different path.Political interests which had grown up around the status quo (this time, those who benefited from Medicare and Medicaid) rallied in support, and sticky institutions (in this case, the Presi dential veto) blocked the momentum of reform”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mobilization of potential supporters was therefore difficult.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The number of Americans without insurance -a phenomenon essentially unknown in other developed economies -was also high and growing rapidly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The crucial object of study, the critical juncture, lies in a preceding set of events which set development along a”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not only is monitoring often exceptionally difficult in politics, but it is also hard to hold actors accountable, because of the relatively rapid turnover of key positions (see below).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a masterful analysis, Ruth Collier and David Collier (1991) have shown how the timing of exogenous shocks in relation to domestic sequences of political events was crucial in determining divergent patterns of labor incorporation across Latin America.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Collier and Collier 1991
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More broadly, path dependence arguments can help political scientists to think more clearly and explicitly about the role of time, and history, in social analysis.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(3) Timing and sequencing become crucial.In path dependent processes, when an event occurs may be just as important as what occurs.Because early parts of a sequence matter much more than later parts, an event that happens”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In response to these challenges, the Clinton administration expended a great deal of political capital during its first two years on efforts to move towards national health insurance.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, understanding the dynamics of increasing returns processes can greatly sharpen our understanding of why particular junctures (and which aspects of those”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Steven Skowronek (1993) has persuasively argued that we cannot understand the opportunities, constraints and demands that a presi dent faces without placing him within a sequence of presidencies that support or oppose the governing coalition of a particular period.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Skowronek 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, an investigation of the sources of increasing returns processes pro vides a basis for developing important hypotheses about political stability and change.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While these issues are clearly important, it must be stressed that for reasons already noted they are fundamentally atypical of the kinds of matters dealt with in politics.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“attention to the character of increasing returns can help provide the micro-foundations which lay bare how the actions of individuals aggregate to produce fundamental, macro-level outcomes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Costs were extremely high by international standards and were rising quickly.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Not all aspects of political life are subject to increasing returns.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and that there are good reasons to think that path dependent processes are far more prevalent in politics”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Arthur's work on increasing returns is ground-breaking not simply because he described the characteristics of these processes, but because he has begun to identify the conditions which are conducive to path dependence.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Arthur
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The costs of doing so are borne in the short-run, while the benefits will generally only accrue in the long run -hat is, to someone else.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The specific characteristics of positive feedback provide the key to making sense of the complex mix of stability and bursts of rapid change which characterize so many political processes.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the task of convinc ing voters to reorient their thinking to support a major expansion of govern ment's role in the health care sector was a very difficult one.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“They have a strong incentive to pay attention to long-term consequences only if these become politically salient, or when they have little reason to fear short-term electoral retribution.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A second factor was the massive array of interest groups which had grad ually grown up around the existing public-private mix of health care provision -a classic illustration of the increasing returns effects associated with pre existing public policies and the patterns of collective action they help to induce.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“By a number of basic criteria, the American health care system possessed clear shortcomings (White 1995).”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites White 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Yet the inability of political scientists to generate powerful generalizations that facili tate prediction remains a puzzle.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stickiness is built into the design of political institutions to reduce uncertainty and enhance stability, facilitating forms of cooperation and exchange which would other wise be impossible.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Doing so has required careful attention to the distinctive features of the politi cal world -its intrinsic ambiguity, the prevalence of highly sticky institutions, the prominence of collective action”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given the complexity of health care and deep political cleavages over the role of government in the United States, there was tremendous dis agreement about the appropriate policy response.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
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In the paper
“As Moe (1990, p. 125) puts it, designers do not want 'their' agencies to fall under the control of opponents.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Moe 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As noted in Part II, the market place possesses strong mechanisms for lengthening time horizons -especially the basic continuity of firms over time and the presence of capital markets.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Path dependence arguments rest on a conception of”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Stinchcombe 1968
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Ikenberry 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus an awareness of the possibility of path dependence necessarily draws social scientists to an investigation of history, if only to evaluate the validity of functionalist assertions.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A politician focusing on the short term pay-off would choose Option A.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > The Complexity and Opacity of Politics.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The significance of path dependence for social scientists can be sustained if either the relevance of non-remediable path dependence or the prevalence of remediable path dependence can be sustained.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“AsKrugman (1996, pp. 110-11) notes, in the American Economic Association's classifi cation system for journal articles one will now find”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Krugman 1996
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
In the paper
“As North has argued, path dependent processes of institutionalization are crucial to the development of particular market economies.”
§ Increasing Returns, Path Dependence and the Study of Politics > IV. Path Dependence and the Study of Politics
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites North
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the illustrative model, the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years, and effects after the election cycle do not count for much.
“Assume that the crucial decision-maker is a politician up for re-election in two years.In this context, effects after the election cycle do not count for much21.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when transaction costs are very high.
“Where transaction costs are low, market mechanisms are likely to be effective, but they tend to break down when trans action costs are very high.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The US health care reform episodes are representative enough of politics that conclusions about the difficulty of reforming deeply institutionalized policy drawn from them extend beyond health care.
“Thus even when an area of public policy is widely seen as problematic, it may be extremely diffi cult to engineer serious reforms if the policy has become deeply institutional ized.”
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The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“the so-called path dependency of welfare institutions is stronger in more developed welfare states (Boone etal., 2018; Pierson, 2000)”
From Public opinion on basic income: Mapping European support for a radical alternative for welfare provision (2020) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Established conventions often remain established long after their original legitimation has dropped away precisely because agreeing to change – funding it, designing it and implanting it – is often extraordinarily difficult (Pierson, 2000).”
From Annual Research Review: Shifting from ‘normal science’ to neurodiversity in autism science (2022) · cites this paper as Pierson, 2000
Citations
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Sorted by citations
Items 501–600 of 8,028
Garritzmann, J. L. (2015) · Journal of European Social Policy · doi:10.1177/0958928715573478 · Cited by 110
“I argue, in line with key contributions in the historical institutionalist literature (Campbell, 2012; Kumlin and Stadelmann-Steffen, 2014; Pierson, 1993, 1994, 2000, 2006; Skocpol, 1992; Thelen, 1999, 2004), that this is so because the existing tuition-subsidy regimes create strong positive…”
ResultSaving Children, Controlling Families: Punishment, Redistribution, and Child Protection
Edwards, F. (2016) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/0003122416638652 · Cited by 106
Regressive taxation and the welfare state path dependence and policy diffusion
Katô, J. (2003) · Cited by 105
The Political Economy of the Small Welfare State in South Korea
Yang, J.-J. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108235419 · Cited by 107
Sometimes linear, sometimes circular: states of the economy and transitions to the future
Morseletto, P. (2023) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136138 · Cited by 94
Emissions trading at Kyoto: from EU resistance to Union innovation
Damro, C., & Méndez, P. L. (2003) · Environmental Politics · doi:10.1080/09644010412331308194 · Cited by 105
Ideas, interests, and the tipping point: Economic change in India
Mukherji, R. (2012) · Review of International Political Economy · doi:10.1080/09692290.2012.716371 · Cited by 103
Zangl, B., Heußner, F., Kruck, A., & Lanzendörfer, X. (2016) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-016-9246-z · Cited by 107
Institutional innovation in urban governance: The case of climate change adaptation
Patterson, J., & Huitema, D. (2018) · Journal of Environmental Planning and Management · doi:10.1080/09640568.2018.1510767 · Cited by 110
“Findings provide ideas about how innovation may have transformative effects, for example in relation to reinforcing dynamics (Pierson 2000), habit formation (Hodgson 2006), and embedding value into new structures (Peters 2000, 7–8).”
BackgroundTrusting organizations: The institutionalization of trust in interorganizational relationships
Kroeger, F. (2011) · Organization · doi:10.1177/1350508411420900 · Cited by 110
Round Up the Usual Suspects!: Globalization, Domestic Politics, and Welfare State Change
Schwartz, H. M. (2001) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0198297564.003.0002 · Cited by 105
Political innovations: innovations in political institutions, processes and outputs
Sørensen, E. (2016) · Public Management Review · doi:10.1080/14719037.2016.1200661 · Cited by 104
“Especially discouraging in that regard is the short political time frame dictated by electoral cycles (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundA Temporal Approach to Retrenchment and Successful Turnaround in Declining Firms
Tangpong, C., Abebe, M. A., & Li, Z. (2015) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/joms.12131 · Cited by 103
“Thus, the timing and sequencing of actions and events are important considerations (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundMethodExplanations of Institutional Change: Reflecting on a “Missing Diagonal”
Gerschewski, J. (2020) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055420000751 · Cited by 119
Planning for Path Dependence? The Case of a Network in the Berlin‐Brandenburg Optics Cluster
Sydow, J., Lerch, F., & Staber, U. (2010) · Economic Geography · doi:10.1111/j.1944-8287.2010.01067.x · Cited by 109
Rolnik, R. (2011) · International Journal of Urban and Regional Research · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2427.2010.01036.x · Cited by 102
Out-Group Conflict, In-Group Unity?
McLauchlin, T., & Pearlman, W. (2011) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002711429707 · Cited by 108
“As Pierson (2000) elaborates, institutions represent a self-enforcing equilibrium in that they generate incentives for people to conform to their rules.”
BackgroundInclusion without Representation in Latin America: Gender Quotas and Ethnic Reservations
Htun, M. (2016) · Cited by 100
European elites and the narrative of the Greek crisis: A discursive institutionalist analysis
Papadimitriou, D., Pegasiou, A., & Zartaloudis, S. (2018) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12287 · Cited by 102
Not by the Sword Alone: Soft Power, Mass Media, and the Production of State Sovereignty
Warren, T. C. (2014) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818313000350 · Cited by 111
“For an analysis of the importance of increasing returns in political competition, see Pierson 2000. generate more powerful incentives for the production of normative appeals that are capable of achieving widespread popular acceptance.”
BackgroundActive labour market policy, international organizations and domestic politics
Armingeon, K. (2007) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501760701497923 · Cited by 101
“Finally, there is strong evidence that policy development is path dependent (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundManipulating Electoral Rules to Manufacture Single‐Party Dominance
McElwain, K. M. (2008) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00297.x · Cited by 100
Choice policies in Northern European health systems
Vrangbæk, K., Robertson, R. H., Winblad, U., van de Bovenkamp, H., & Dixon, A. (2012) · Health Economics Policy and Law · doi:10.1017/s1744133111000302 · Cited by 101
“National political and institutional contexts seem to create a significant degree of ‘path dependency’ (North, 1990; Wilsford, 1994; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundCairney, P. (2014) · Teaching Public Administration · doi:10.1177/0144739414532284 · Cited by 98
“When commitment to a policy has been established and resources devoted to it, over time it produces ‘increasing returns’ (Pierson, 2000).”
Seven Principles of Strong Climate Change Planning
Meerow, S., & Woodruff, S. (2019) · Journal of the American Planning Association · doi:10.1080/01944363.2019.1652108 · Cited by 102
Creativity in strategic lock-ins: The newspaper industry and the digital revolution
Rothmann, W., & Koch, J. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.03.005 · Cited by 106
China's “New Regionalism”: Subnational Analysis in Chinese Political Economy
Rithmire, M. (2013) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s004388711300035x · Cited by 98
“In her formulation, different rural governments supported different forms of property rights because they possessed different resource endowments and constraints 28 Pierson 2000, Thelen 2003.”
BackgroundInternational organizations and organizational fields: explaining policy change in the IMF
Vetterlein, A., & Moschella, M. (2013) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s175577391200029x · Cited by 100
“Once a particular degree of institutionalization is reached it becomes difficult to break with the established rules of the game, or as Pierson (2000) would argue, past choices get locked-in.”
BackgroundLiquefied natural gas expansion plans in Germany: The risk of gas lock-in under energy transitions
Brauers, H., Braunger, I., & Jewell, J. (2021) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102059 · Cited by 97
Stadelmann‐Steffen, I., Eder, C., Harring, N., Spilker, G., & Κατσανίδου, Α. (2021) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102307 · Cited by 120
The Social Construction of Landscapes: Two Theoretical Lenses and Their Empirical Applications
Gailing, L., & Leibenath, M. (2013) · Landscape Research · doi:10.1080/01426397.2013.775233 · Cited by 99
“The application of the path development concept in organisational theory (e.g. Schreyögg et al., 2003), political science (e.g. Pierson, 2000) and agricultural economy (e.g. Theuvsen, 2004), has led to a greater appreciation of the influence of actors.”
MethodInstitutional Choice and Policy Transfer: Reforming British and German Railway Regulation
Lodge, M. (2003) · Governance · doi:10.1111/1468-0491.00212 · Cited by 102
New Institutionalist Explanations for Institutional Change: A Note of Caution
Gorges, M. J. (2001) · Politics · doi:10.1111/1467-9256.00145 · Cited by 101
European Health Systems Reforms: Looking Backward to See Forward?
Oliver, A., & Mossialos, E. A. (2005) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-30-1-2-7 · Cited by 100
Renegotiating the World Order: Institutional Change in International Relations
Lipscy, P. Y. (2017) · Cited by 96
Integrating Ideas into Policy-Making Analysis
Bleich, E. (2002) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/001041402237506 · Cited by 111
Lindner, J., & Rittberger, B. (2003) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/1468-5965.00430 · Cited by 98
“Furthermore, we follow Pierson (2000b) by specifying the conditions under which we would expect political actors to create institutions that will be contested.”
BackgroundUnraveling from Within? The Affordable Care Act and Self-Undermining Policy Feedbacks
Oberlander, J. B., & Weaver, R. K. (2015) · The Forum · doi:10.1515/for-2015-0010 · Cited by 103
Asal, V. H., Sommer, U., & Harwood, P. G. (2012) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414012453693 · Cited by 97
“This type of process is widespread in politics (Stinchcombe 1965; Pierson 2000).”
Qualitative Comparative Analysis and the Study of Policy Processes
Fischer, M., & Maggetti, M. (2016) · Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/13876988.2016.1149281 · Cited by 104
“Following Pierson (2000), “ placing politics in time – systematically situating particular moments (including the present) in a temporal sequence of events and processes – can greatly enrich our understanding of complex social dynamics ” .”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSocial Networks and Regional Identity in Bronze Age Italy
Blake, E. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139879262 · Cited by 96
Rebehy, P. C. P. W., Costa, A. L., Campello, C. A. G. B., Espinoza, D. D. F., & Neto, M. J. (2017) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.173 · Cited by 105
“…Gibbs and Deutz, 2007; Caron and Turcotte, 2009; Bitencourt and Oliveira, 2014) Principles of sustainable developmentInnovation Social business Critical moment approach (Collier and Collier, 1991) Path-dependent phenomenon (Hoff, 2011) re-enforcement (Mahoney,2000; Pierson,2000) Economically viable”
BackgroundYi, H., Berry, F. S., & Chen, W. (2018) · Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory · doi:10.1093/jopart/muy031 · Cited by 99
Disrupting path dependency: Making room for Indigenous knowledge in river management
Parsons, M., Nalau, J., Fisher, K., & Brown, C. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.008 · Cited by 97
International Relations and the Problem of Time
Hom, A. R. (2020) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198850014.001.0001 · Cited by 99
Governing the Provision of Ecosystem Services
(2013) · Studies in Ecological Economics · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5176-7 · Cited by 97
The Limits and Variety of Risk-based Governance: the case of flood management in Germany and England
Krieger, K. (2013) · Regulation & Governance · doi:10.1111/rego.12009 · Cited by 102
Globalization, Embedded Realism, and Path Dependence
Hansen, R. (2002) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414002035003001 · Cited by 101
All for All: Equality and Social TrustPreprint
Rothstein, B., & Uslaner, E. M. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.824506 · Cited by 97
Policy Bubbles: Policy Overreaction and Positive Feedback
Maor, M. H. (2013) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12048 · Cited by 98
Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems
Daniell, K. A., Coombes, P. J., & White, I. M. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.058 · Cited by 108
Cleavage Politics in Old and New Democracies
Bornschier, S. (2009) · Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) · doi:10.5167/uzh-26412 · Cited by 96
“2 For a theoretical discussion of the concept of path dependency and of the mechanisms sustaining it, see Pierson (2000).”
BackgroundPolicy Change and Health Care Research
Béland, D. (2010) · Journal of Health Politics Policy and Law · doi:10.1215/03616878-2010-019 · Cited by 95
Land Institutions and Chinese Political Economy
Rithmire, M. (2017) · Politics & Society · doi:10.1177/0032329216683167 · Cited by 95
Fischer, A. P. (2018) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.007 · Cited by 102
Pathways to policy integration: a subsystem approach
Cejudo, G. M., & Trein, P. (2022) · Policy Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11077-022-09483-1 · Cited by 96
“According to policy feedback research, elected officials, interest groups, and voters tend to support established policy structures politically, as they benefit from the status quo politically and perhaps even financially (Hacker & Pierson, 2019; Mettler & SoRelle, 2018; Pierson, 2000).”
Institutional change and the uses and limits of path dependency: The case of German finance
Deeg, R. (2001) · Social Science Open Access Repository (GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) · Cited by 97
Who cares about nationality? The path-dependent case law of the ECJ from goods to citizens
Schmidt, S. K. (2011) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2012.632122 · Cited by 99
“Later the idea was transferred to welfare states’ institutional development (Pierson 2000).”
BackgroundWollmann, H. (2011) · Local Government Studies · doi:10.1080/03003930.2011.638710 · Cited by 95
“The notion and image of path-dependence highlights the all but compelling force of such historical factors (see Pierson and Scopol 2002, Pierson 2000 with references).”
BackgroundThe Politics of Platform Regulation
Gorwa, R. (2024) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197692851.001.0001 · Cited by 106
Sequencing in public policy: the evolution of the CAP over a decade
Daugbjerg, C. (2009) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501760802662698 · Cited by 97
“…or policy, paths are maintained by self-reinforcing sequences in which ‘initial steps in a particular direction induce further movement in the same direction such that over time it becomes difficult or impossible to reverse direction’ (Mahoney 2000: 512; see also Pierson 2000a: 252–3).”
BackgroundInfluentialLang, T. (2015) · Hungarian Geographical Bulletin · doi:10.15201/hungeobull.64.3.2 · Cited by 93
The need for policy to address the food system lock-in: A case study of the Finnish context
Kuokkanen, A., Mikkilä, M. H., Kuisma, M., Kahiluoto, H., & Linnanen, L. (2016) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.171 · Cited by 106
National Varieties of Standardization
Tate, J. (2001) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199247757.003.0014 · Cited by 95
Governing through Goals: Sustainable Development Goals as Governance Innovation
Kanie, N., & Biermann, F. (2017) · Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) · Cited by 97
Civil Society and Competitive Authoritarianism in Malaysia
Giersdorf, S., & Croissant, A. (2011) · Journal of Civil Society · doi:10.1080/17448689.2011.553401 · Cited by 94
“Institutional reproduction and persistence can be explained by mechanisms of path dependence such as increasing returns (Pierson, 2000; Thelen, 1999).”
BackgroundSellers, J. M. (2005) · Urban Affairs Review · doi:10.1177/1078087404272673 · Cited by 99
Social Policy through Labor Markets
Bonoli, G. (2003) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414003257099 · Cited by 94
“According to path dependency theory, once countries have embarked on given policy trajectories, they are prevented from shifting to different approaches—even to more efficient ones—by a powerful mix of normative views, incentive structures, and institutional inertia (North, 1990; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundOn the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future
Beckstead, N. (2013) · Rutgers University Community Repository (Rutgers University) · doi:10.7282/t35m649t · Cited by 124
Enns, P. K., Kelly, N. J., Morgan, J., Volscho, T., & Witko, C. (2014) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381613001321 · Cited by 93
“However, redistributional policy action is much more difficult where institutions are strongly biased toward the status quo (Alesina and Glaeser 2004; Birchfield 2008; Huber, Ragin, and Stephens 1993; Huber and Stephens 2001; Stepan and Linz 2012; Tsebelis 2002).”
BackgroundJohns, C. (2019) · Journal of Environmental Planning and Management · doi:10.1080/09640568.2018.1496072 · Cited by 93
“Path dependency involves some initial collective action, supporting institutions and political authority which, over time, generate increasing returns to institutions and key players (North 1990; Pierson 2000) and policies are sustained by coalitions of actors who form their interests on the basis of the actual distri…”
BackgroundRestructuring Health Reform, Mexican Style
Reich, M. R. (2020) · Health Systems & Reform · doi:10.1080/23288604.2020.1763114 · Cited by 99
Comparative historical political economy
Boettke, P. J., Coyne, C. J., & Leeson, P. T. (2013) · Journal of Institutional Economics · doi:10.1017/s1744137413000088 · Cited by 93
Legal Irritants: How Unifying Law Ends up in New Divergences
Teubner, G. (2001) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/0199247757.003.0013 · Cited by 85
Der unitarische Bundesstaat in Deutschland: Pfadabhängigkeit und Wandel
Lehmbruch, G. (2002) · Politische Vierteljahresschrift. Sonderheft · doi:10.1007/978-3-663-10075-1_2 · Cited by 95
“10 Das Folgende lehnt sich unter anderem an Pierson (2000a) und an die kritische Ana- lyse von Deeg (2001) an.”
BackgroundInfluentialMulti-storey timber buildings: breaking industry path dependency
Mahapatra, K., & Gustavsson, L. (2008) · Building Research & Information · doi:10.1080/09613210802386123 · Cited by 107
“…also possibly due to path dependence of the existing innovation system2 resulting from the technological, institutional, economic, and social factors that support the existing system (Nelson and Winter, 1982; David, 1985; Arthur, 1989; Bijker, 1995; Shove, 1998; Pierson, 2000; Geels, 2004, 2005).”
BackgroundAwortwi, N. (2011) · International Review of Administrative Sciences · doi:10.1177/0020852311399844 · Cited by 106
“Falleti (2005) draws on some of the elements of path dependency (Pierson, 2000), self-reinforcing sequences (Mahoney, 2000), mechanisms of reproduction (Collier and Collier, 1991) and institutional change (Thelen, 2000, 2003, 2004) to develop a ‘sequential theory of decentralization’.”
BackgroundMethodHui, V. T.-B. (2004) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818304581067 · Cited by 91
“…bandwagoning and other strategies generate positive feed- 21+ Jervis 1997, chap+ 4+ 22+ Ibid+, 125+ 23+ See, for example, Mahoney 2000; North 1990; and Pierson 2000+ 24+ Elster 1993, 5+ 25+ Wohlforth 1999, 29+ See also Rosecrance 2003; and Schweller 1996+ 26+ See Christensen and Snyder 1990;…”
Backgroundvan Buuren, A., Ellen, G. J., & Warner, J. F. (2016) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-08765-210443 · Cited by 93
Optimality and Authority: A Critique of Neoclassical Theory
Marks, G., & Hooghe, L. (2000) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/1468-5965.00265 · Cited by 93
“By the mid-1990s, there were almost twice as many special districts as towns (Casella and Weingast, 1995). 8 On path dependency, see Pierson (2000) .”
BackgroundInfluentialVergne, J., & Durand, R. (2009) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6486.2009.00913.x · Cited by 554
“Despite the common use of the construct in scientific publications, a number of scholars note that no clear definition of path dependence is shared within the scholarly community (Djelic and Quack, 2007; Morgan and Kubo, 2005; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundInfluentialBringing political science back into public administration research
Peters, B. G., Pierre, J., Sørensen, E., & Torfing, J. (2022) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12705 · Cited by 93
End of the Era of Productivist Welfare Capitalism? Diverging Welfare Regimes in East Asia
Choi, Y. J. (2012) · Asian journal of social science · doi:10.1163/156853112x650827 · Cited by 92
Wüstenhagen, R., & Teppo, T. (2006) · International Journal of Technology Management · doi:10.1504/ijtm.2006.009448 · Cited by 90
Cornwell, B. T. (2015) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781316212530 · Cited by 217
Climate geoengineering: issues of path‐dependence and socio‐technical lock‐in
Cairns, R. (2014) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.296 · Cited by 96
“lar courses of action, once introduced, can be virtually impossible to reverse.(11)”
BackgroundPath Dependence and the Measurement of Change in Housing Policy
Malpass, P. (2011) · Housing Theory and Society · doi:10.1080/14036096.2011.554852 · Cited by 101
Enabling factors for establishing REDD+ in a context of weak governance
Korhonen‐Kurki, K., Sehring, J., Brockhaus, M., & Gregorio, M. D. (2013) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2014.852022 · Cited by 98
“Behaviour or policies that formerly proved successful, that are entrenched, or that are in the interest of powerful actors are deployed to resist change in the face of new challenges and to protect vested interests and business-as-usual practices (Pierson, 2000; Thelen, 1999).”
BackgroundGoverning by targets: reductio ad unum and evolution of the two-degree climate target
Morseletto, P., Biermann, F., & Pattberg, P. H. (2016) · International Environmental Agreements Politics Law and Economics · doi:10.1007/s10784-016-9336-7 · Cited by 99
“(Pierson 2000) that consolidated the temperature limit internationally.”
BackgroundThe Historical Origins of Territorial Disputes
Abramson, S. F., & Carter, D. B. (2016) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055416000381 · Cited by 90
“In other words, as political boundaries remain in place for a period of time and become established, they exhibit increasing returns to coordination as more and more individuals condition their behavior on them (Pierson 2000; 2004).”
BackgroundMajority acceptance of vaccination and mandates across the political spectrum in Australia
Smith, D. T., Attwell, K., & Evers, U. (2020) · Politics · doi:10.1177/0263395719859457 · Cited by 89
“This may be an example of path dependence in public policy, where policies generate political ‘feedback’ that entrench them through acceptance in public attitudes (Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundThe Regime Question: Theory Building in Democracy Studies
Munck, G. L. (2001) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2001.0025 · Cited by 95
Understanding Policy Change as a Discursive Problem
Zittoun, P. (2009) · Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis Research and Practice · doi:10.1080/13876980802648235 · Cited by 91
“The normal flux of policy is termed ‘‘incremental’’ (Lindblom and Woodhouse 1993) or ‘‘secondary’’ changes (Sabatier 1999) and its marginal nature is assumed to be limited by ‘‘path dependent’’ evolutionary processes (Pierson 2000).”
Treib, O. (2003) · Politische Vierteljahresschrift · doi:10.1007/s11615-003-0096-y · Cited by 90
Shen, G. C., & Snowden, L. R. (2014) · International Journal of Mental Health Systems · doi:10.1186/1752-4458-8-47 · Cited by 108
“The trajectories of mental health care (re)organization offer researchers like us a provocative basis of comparison with respect to historical points of convergence or divergence for countries [48,100,101].”
BackgroundRemoulding the Critical Junctures Approach
Hogan, J. (2006) · Arrow - TU Dublin (Technological University Dublin) · doi:10.21427/d71f7n · Cited by 90
Ladi, S. (2013) · Comparative European Politics · doi:10.1057/cep.2012.46 · Cited by 90
Financialization of Housing in Brazil: New Frontiers
Pereira, A. L. D. S. (2017) · International Journal of Urban and Regional Research · doi:10.1111/1468-2427.12518 · Cited by 90
Campomori, F., & Caponio, T. (2016) · International Review of Administrative Sciences · doi:10.1177/0020852315611238 · Cited by 89
“Scholarship on policymaking, however, has questioned the centrality of politics, while pointing out the relevance of other factors, such as a particular policy legacy and path-dependency dynamics (March and Olsen, 1984; Pierson, 2000).”
BackgroundConflict and Change in EU Budgetary Politics
Lindner, J. (2006) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203002766 · Cited by 89
Metadata
- Authors
- Pierson, P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pierson, Paul
- ORCID
- Pierson, Paul
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000-06
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 251-267
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2147111138
- Semantic Scholar
- 274439eda2c6c9e513794e1ee8f8eb9ac952431c
- Cited by
- 8,094
- References
- 97
- Citations by year
- 2026: 608 · 2025: 459 · 2024: 379 · 2023: 413 · 2022: 422 · 2021: 448 · 2020: 513 · 2019: 528 · 2018: 389 · 2017: 302 · 2016: 332 · 2015: 318 · 2014: 338 · 2013: 319 · 2012: 307
- FWCI
- 487.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Licence
- public-domain
- www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 5174 d)
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- Cadmus - EUI Research Repository (European University Institute) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Science Research and Education
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Theory and Institutions
- Keywords
- path dependence, increasing returns, historical institutionalism, political development, critical junctures, institutional change, political process
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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