The Bayesian approach to radiocarbon calibration curve estimation: the IntCal13, Marine13, and SHCal13 methodologies
Open accessAbstract
This article outlines the Bayesian models and methods used to facilitate construction of the 2013 internationally agreed radiocarbon calibration curves known as IntCal13, Marine13, and SHCal13. The models build on those used for the 2004 and 2009 estimates of the curves and, as in 2009, arc implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. In addition to the data structures accounted for within the 2004 and 2009 models, the approach outlined here also allows for: the presence of additional uncertainty that the data providers have been unable to quantify; tree-ring data that derive their calendar age from wiggle-matching (in addition to ring counting); varve-counted data that exhibit zero increase in calendar age error between 2 or more consecutive layers; and any data source for which we have dependent calendar age uncertainties.
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After the publication of IntCal13, the IWG determined the necessity of a statistically robust calibration curve construction method that could be run much more quickly than the Random Walk Model, so that different data options could be tested.
“After the publication of IntCal13, the IWG determined the necessity of a statistically robust calibration curve construction method that could be run much more quickly than the Random Walk Model (Niu et al. 2013), so that different data options could be tested.”
From The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0–55 cal kBP) (2020) · cites this paper as Niu et al. 2013
The Introduction describes the random-walk model used in radiocarbon calibration, so the citation supports identifying that model. It does not report a decision by the IWG after IntCal13 to seek a faster method for testing different data options. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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- Authors
- Niu, M., Heaton, T. J., Blackwell, P. G., & Buck, C. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Niu, M
- Venue
- Radiocarbon
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2013
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1905-1922
- ISSN
- 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-5755
- OpenAlex
- W1993219513
- Semantic Scholar
- 30a7374513cd44acacf8801648e10d5d02bcb5ed
- Cited by
- 46
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 3
- FWCI
- 1.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Radiocarbon (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/E019129/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Keywords
- radiocarbon calibration curve, Bayesian calibration, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Metropolis-within-Gibbs, wiggle matching, tree-ring measurements, varve counting, radiocarbon dating
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