Did students learn less during the COVID-19 pandemic? reading and mathematics competencies before and after the first pandemic wave
Preprint — published as 10.1080/09243453.2022.2061014 · Paper page
Abstract
The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted regular classes in spring 2020. Temporary school closures supposedly led to a considerable learning loss, particularly for low-achieving students. Schools in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, were closed for two months. Although distance learning was implemented, students spent less time learning. Additionally, teachers were faced with organizational and technological challenges of remote learning environments. The present study investigates the competencies of fifth-graders, using large-scale assessment results in reading and mathematics from annual mandatory tests in September (each n > 80,000). In line with studies from other countries, competence scores were slightly lower in 2020 compared with the three previous years (–0.07 standard deviations for reading comprehension, –0.09 for operations, and –0.03 for numbers). Low-achieving readers managed to attain pre-pandemic competence levels. Regarding mathematics competencies, low-achieving students seem to have a learning backlog that deserves attention in future education. School characteristic such as the average socio-cultural capital and the proportion of students with migration background played a minor role in mediating the schools' learning loss. Still, lower socio-cultural capital was positively associated with larger learning loss in mathematics.
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TL;DR
Using statewide mandatory “Lernstand 5” data from Baden-Württemberg, this study compared incoming fifth-graders’ reading and mathematics competencies in September 2020 with those from 2017–2019. It found small average declines after the first COVID-19 school closures, with heterogeneous patterns across achievement levels and domains.
Key findings
- Population means were slightly lower in 2020 than in 2017–2019: reading comprehension *d* = −0.07, operations *d* = −0.09, and numbers *d* = −0.03 (all *p* < .001).
- Percentile comparisons showed mixed patterns: in reading, the bottom 5% was similar (2017–2019: 299 vs. 2020: 300), while the 25th–95th percentiles were 9–17 points lower in 2020; in operations, the 5th–75th percentiles were 1–28 points lower, but the 95th percentile was higher in 2020 (656 vs. 667); in numbers, the 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles were similar, while the 5th and 25th percentiles were 5–7 points lower.
- School-level change scores correlated strongly between the two mathematics domains (*r* = .50, *p* < .001) and moderately between reading and mathematics (*r* = .26 and .29, both *p* < .001). Higher socio-cultural capital was associated with more positive operations change scores (*r* = .36, *p* < .001); other school-characteristic correlations were weak and heterogeneous.
Methods
- Cross-sectional cohort comparison using the mandatory statewide “Lernstand 5” assessment at the beginning of grade 5 in Baden-Württemberg; the 2020 cohort was compared with the pooled 2017–2019 cohorts. Each year’s sample was *n* > 80,000; 2020 reading *n* = 81,810 and mathematics *n* = 81,550, with pooled 2017–2019 *n* = 249,862 for reading and 250,109 for mathematics.
- Three linked competence tests were analyzed: reading comprehension, operations, and numbers. Scores were scaled with a Rasch model, ten plausible values were drawn, and Cohen’s *d* was used for standardized differences.
- Analyses compared population means, selected percentiles (5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 95%), and school-level change scores. For school-characteristic analyses, *k* = 1,065 schools remained after excluding 152 schools; change scores were correlated with the proportion of students with migration background and schools’ socio-cultural capital (average books at home).
Limitations
- Stated: the design does not allow causal interpretation; results are between-student comparisons, not intra-individual learning gains; background characteristics were available only at the school level, risking ecological fallacy; average books at home was estimated from previous cohorts; year-to-year fluctuation and test-specific variance may affect 2020 scores; the study covers only reading and mathematics competencies, not well-being or social relatedness; suspended grade repetitions may have added low-achieving students, theoretically accounting for up to 0.01 standard deviations.
- Evident from the text: participation was voluntary for students with special needs and absent students did not participate, and participation rates were lower in 2020 (94.9% reading, 94.6% mathematics) than in prior years (about 96%).
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Claims the paper makes
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- Findingown data§ Discussion
The present analysis shows an unexpected positive difference for reading competencies between 2019 and 2020.
“Like the findings from Hamburg, the present analysis shows an unexpected positive difference for reading competencies between 2019 and 2020.”
- Also stated in: § Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2) · plain
“The year-to-year comparison of 2020 with 2019 shows standardized differences of d = +0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.07 for operations, and d = -0.02 for numbers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2) · plain
- Findingown data§ Limitations
There was considerable year-to-year fluctuation in the prepandemic years.
“As shown in Figure 1, there was a considerable year-to-year fluctuation in the prepandemic years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)
The correlation between schools' change scores in the two mathematics competence domains (operations and numbers) was large (r = .50, p < .001).
“The correlation between schools' change scores in the two mathematics competence domains were large ( r = .50, p < .001).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning§ Discussion
Differences in mathematics assessment scores before and after the first wave of the pandemic were on average closer to zero in the numbers domain than in the operations domain.
“Differences in mathematics assessment scores before and after the first wave of the pandemic were on average closer to zero in the numbers domain than in the operations domain.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
In operations, students at the 5th, 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles scored 1 to 28 points less in 2020 than in 2017-2019.
“Students in the groups with lower levels of competence at the 5 %, 25 %, 50 %, and 75 % percentile had scored 1 to 28 points less in 2020 than in the three previous pre-pandemic years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data§ Discussion
The school background variables were highly correlated with the average school competence scores.
“Overall, the school background variables were highly correlated with the average school competence scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
Students' migration background at the school level showed a small positive relation to the reading change score.
“Contrary to previous findings (e.g., Maldonado & De Witte, 2021), students' migration background at the school level showed a small positive relation to the reading change score whereas socio-cultural capital had a small negative relation to the reading change score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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- Findingreasoning§ Discussion
Average- and low-achieving students showed less understanding of operations than previous cohorts.
“On the other hand, average- and low-achieving students showed less understanding of operations than previous cohorts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The lockdown findings from Baden-Württemberg show slightly diverging patterns for reading and mathematics, depending on the level of student achievement.
“The lockdown findings from Baden-Württemberg show slightly diverging patterns for reading and mathematics, depending on the level of student achievement.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)
The correlations between the reading change score and the mathematics change scores were medium (r = .26 and r = .29, both p < .001).
“The correlations between the reading change score and the mathematics change scores were medium ( r =.26 and r = .29, both p < .001).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
Socio-cultural capital was positively associated with slightly larger school change scores in mathematical operations and, to a lesser degree, numbers.
“As expected, socio-cultural capital was positively associated with slightly larger school change scores in mathematical operations and, to a lesser degree, numbers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
The year-to-year comparison of 2020 with 2019 shows a standardized difference of d = -0.07 for operations.
“The year-to-year comparison of 2020 with 2019 shows standardized differences of d = +0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.07 for operations, and d = -0.02 for numbers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
Socio-cultural capital had a small negative relation to the reading change score.
“Contrary to previous findings (e.g., Maldonado & De Witte, 2021), students' migration background at the school level showed a small positive relation to the reading change score whereas socio-cultural capital had a small negative relation to the reading change score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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- Findingreasoning§ Discussion
In reading comprehension, low-achieving students attained similar competence levels in 2020 compared to the previous years.
“A different pattern can be found in the domain of reading comprehension, where low-achieving students attained similar competence levels in 2020 compared to the previous years.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
School characteristics such as average socio-cultural capital and proportion of students with migration background did not show substantial relationships with schools' competence change scores.
“School characteristic such as the average socio-cultural capital and the proportion of students with migration background did not show substantial relationships with schools' competence change scores (RQ3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
In reading comprehension, medium- to high-achieving students (25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles) scored 9 to 17 points lower in 2020 than in 2017-2019.
“The other cut scores at the 25 %, 50 %, 75 %, and 95 % percentile were 9 to 17 points lower in 2020 than in the three previous years, indicating lower achievement scores for medium- to high-achieving students.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
Competencies within one year and within many individual schools are spread across more than three standard deviations.
“Competencies within one year - and even within many individual schools - are spread across more than three standard deviations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Conclusions
The present cross-sectional study indicates a minor drop in the mean competence scores of incoming fifth-graders after two months of closed schools in early 2020.
“The present cross-sectional study indicates a minor drop in the mean competence scores of incoming fifth-graders after two months of closed schools in early 2020.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
In reading comprehension, low-achieving students (bottom 5%) scored at a similar level in 2020 as in 2017-2019 (299 vs. 300).
“In reading comprehension, low-achieving students (i.e., the bottom 5 %) scored beneath a similar cut level (2017-2019: 299 vs. 2020: 300).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The variability in test scores between students was already large before the COVID-19 pandemic (2015-2019).
“The variability in test scores between students has already been large before the COVID-19 pandemic (see 2015 to 2019 in Figure 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
The year-to-year comparison of 2020 with 2019 shows a standardized difference of d = -0.02 for numbers.
“The year-to-year comparison of 2020 with 2019 shows standardized differences of d = +0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.07 for operations, and d = -0.02 for numbers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given§ Discussion
The group of high-achieving students managed to attain similar competence levels compared to previous cohorts regarding operations.
“The group of high-achieving students managed to attain similar competence levels compared to previous cohorts regarding operations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)
Schools with higher socio-cultural capital tended to have more positive school change scores in operations (r = .36, p < .001).
“Schools with higher socio-cultural capital tended to have more positive school change scores in operations ( r = .36, p < .001).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Still, lower socio-cultural capital was positively associated with larger learning loss in mathematics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Findingown data§ Comparison of Population Means (RQ1)
In 2020, reading comprehension competence scores of incoming fifth-graders in Baden-Württemberg were lower than the average of the three previous years (2017-2019) by d = -0.07.
“The standardized difference was d = -0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.09 for operations, and d = -0.03 for numbers (all p < .001).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“competence scores were slightly lower in 2020 compared with the three previous years (-0.07 standard deviations for reading comprehension, -0.09 for operations, and -0.03 for numbers).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Findingown data§ Comparison of Population Means (RQ1)
In 2020, operations competence scores of incoming fifth-graders in Baden-Württemberg were lower than the average of the three previous years (2017-2019) by d = -0.09.
“The standardized difference was d = -0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.09 for operations, and d = -0.03 for numbers (all p < .001).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“competence scores were slightly lower in 2020 compared with the three previous years (-0.07 standard deviations for reading comprehension, -0.09 for operations, and -0.03 for numbers).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)
In operations, high-achieving students (above the 95th percentile) scored higher in 2020 than in 2017-2019 (656 vs. 667).
“In operations, high-achieving students (i.e., those above the 95 % percentile) scored above a higher cut level in 2020 (2017-2019: 656 vs. 2020: 667).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Comparison of Population Means (RQ1)
In 2020, numbers competence scores of incoming fifth-graders in Baden-Württemberg were lower than the average of the three previous years (2017-2019) by d = -0.03.
“The standardized difference was d = -0.07 for reading comprehension, d = -0.09 for operations, and d = -0.03 for numbers (all p < .001).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“competence scores were slightly lower in 2020 compared with the three previous years (-0.07 standard deviations for reading comprehension, -0.09 for operations, and -0.03 for numbers).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Findingown data§ Discussion
The 5% percentile in the operations domain in 2020 was comparably low.
“Judging from the comparably low 5 % percentile in 2020, the operations domain in mathematics deserves more attention during (and after) potential future school lockdowns.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
Eight weeks of closed schools in the Netherlands in spring 2020 were associated with a loss of learning of 3 percentile ranks.
“Eight weeks of closed schools in the Netherlands in spring 2020 were associated with a loss of learning of 3 percentile ranks ( n > 250,000, grades 4 through 7; Engzell et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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- Premisecitation§ Introduction
In spring 2020, elementary schools in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, were closed for about two months due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“In spring 2020, elementary schools in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, for example, were closed for two months.”
- Also stated in: § --- insert Table 1 here --- · plain
“Schools in Baden-Württemberg were closed on March 17, 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic. Classes in grade 4 resumed on-site teaching two months later on May 18, 2020.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Fickermann & Edelstein, 2020
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- Also stated in: § --- insert Table 1 here --- · plain
- Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
During the German lockdown in spring 2020, students spent considerably less time on learning activities (3.6 hours on average) than before (7.4 hours).
“According to a survey of 1,099 German parents of school-aged children (Grewenig et al., 2021), students spent considerably less time on learning activities during the lockdown (3.6 hours on average) than they did before (7.4 hours).”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“Although distance learning was implemented, students spent less time learning.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Grewenig et al., 2021
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- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
The reduction in time spent on learning during the lockdown was more pronounced for low-achieving students than for high-achieving students.
“This reduction was more pronounced for low-achieving students than for high-achieving students.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Grewenig et al., 2021
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- Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
In the Netherlands, learning loss estimates were slightly larger for mathematics (0.14 standard deviations) than for reading (0.09 standard deviations).
“Learning loss estimates were slightly larger for mathematics (0.14 standard deviations) than for reading (0.09 standard deviations; Engzell et al., 2021, p. 85).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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- Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
Meta-analytic and systematic reviews estimate average learning losses between d = -0.09 in reading and d = -0.17 in mathematics during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
“Meta-analytic and systematic reviews, which included a preprint of the present study, estimate average learning losses between d = -0.09 (in reading; Hammerstein et al., 2021) and d = -0.17 (in mathematics; Zierer, 2021) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the year 2020.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Hammerstein et al., 2021
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- cites Zierer, 2021
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- Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the Pandemic
Recent studies indicate an overall loss of learning due to closed schools.
“Still, such positive effects, if they exist, do not offset the detrimental consequences of closed schools, as indicated by an overall loss of learning in recent studies (Engzell et al., 2021; Kuhfeld et al., 2020a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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- cites Kuhfeld et al., 2020a
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- Interpretationown data§ Discussion
The results provide further evidence that student competencies were attenuated after schools had been closed for about a fifth of the school year.
“The results provide further evidence that student competencies were attenuated after schools had been closed for about a fifth of the school year (RQ1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 2017-2019 cohorts are a valid pre-pandemic comparison for the 2020 cohort, such that observed differences reflect pandemic effects rather than secular trends or other cohort differences.
- Study design and conductreasoning§ Limitations
The results do not reflect intra-individual learning gains.
“Thus, the results do not reflect intra-individual learning gains.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductcitation§ Data Preparation and Data Analysis
Plausible values yield unbiased means and variances.
“Plausible values yield unbiased means and variances (Wu, 2005).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Wu, 2005
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- Premisecitation§ Implications for Teaching
In a study of 1,835 Chinese ninth-graders, learning loss during a seven-week school lockdown was 0.22 standard deviations smaller for students with online lessons than for students with no formal instruction.
“In a study of 1,835 Chinese ninth-graders, learning loss during a seven-week school lockdown was 0.22 standard deviations smaller for students with online lessons than for students with no formal instruction (Clark et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Clark et al., 2021
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- Study design and conductreasoning§ Discussion
It was not possible to statistically isolate specific effects of school characteristics over and above competence scores.
“It was therefore not possible to statistically isolate specific effects of school characteristics over and above competence scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data§ Conclusions
The overall efforts of teachers, students, and parents throughout the pandemic-stricken school year might have mitigated the expectable detrimental effects of school closing on student achievement to some degree.
“The present population data suggest that the overall efforts of teachers, students, and parents throughout the pandemic-stricken school year might have mitigated the expectable detrimental effects of school closing on student achievement to some degree.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Discussion
The cohort differences translate to roughly one month of learning backlog.
“In summary, the cohort differences translate to roughly one month of learning backlog.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 2017-2019 cohorts are a valid pre-pandemic comparison for the 2020 cohort, such that observed differences reflect pandemic effects rather than secular trends or other cohort differences.
- Study design and conductreasoning§ Limitations
The present study design does not allow a causal interpretation.
“The present study design does not allow a causal interpretation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation§ Limitations
Combining the present findings with other large-scale studies yields learning loss estimates that are slightly larger than our effect sizes (d = -0.10 in native language domains such as reading; d = -0.17 in mathematics).
“Combining the present findings with other large-scale studies yields learning loss estimates that are slightly larger than our effect sizes ( d = -0.10 in native language domains such as reading; d = -0.17 in mathematics; Zierer, 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Zierer, 2021
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- Study design and conductown data§ Limitations
The measure of average number of books at home showed little fluctuation across cohorts.
“However, the measure showed little fluctuation across cohorts, and can thus be used to approximate the average socio-cultural capital of the assessed schools.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Discussion
Data from Hamburg, Germany, from August/September 2019 and September 2020 show similar results.
“Data from Hamburg, Germany, from August/September 2019 and September 2020 show similar results (Depping et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Depping et al., 2021
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- Interpretationown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)
Learning losses (or gains) at a school level could differ considerably between reading and mathematics.
“This suggests that learning losses (or gains) at a school level could differ considerably between reading and mathematics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation§ Discussion
Studies that compared student performance declines directly after the re-opening of schools tend to show larger deficit estimates.
“Studies that compared student performance declines directly after the re-opening of schools tend to show larger deficit estimates (Engzell et al., 2021; Kuhfeld et al., 2020a; Maldonado & De Witte, 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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- cites Kuhfeld et al., 2020a
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- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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- Premisecitation§ Implications for Teaching
Empirical studies of formative assessments during the first COVID-19 wave showed a performance increase compared to the regular classes in previous years.
“Empirical studies of formative assessments during the first COVID-19 wave showed a performance increase compared to the regular classes in previous years (Meeter, 2021; for older students see Spitzer & Musslick, 2020).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Meeter, 2021
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- cites Spitzer & Musslick, 2020
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- Premisecitation§ Implications for Teaching
Online learning benefits students during a school lockdown.
“Online learning benefits students during a school lockdown.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Clark et al., 2021
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- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 23
- May combine two claims. 14
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Findingreasoning§ LimitationsThe effect of additional low-achieving students in the 2020 cohort may theoretically account for up to 0.01 standard deviations.
“Assuming that the additional students are on the lower end of the empirical ability distribution, this effect may theoretically account for up to 0.01 standard deviations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The additional students in the 2020 cohort are on the lower end of the empirical ability distribution.
May combine two claims.
Findingown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)The remaining correlations between school characteristics (migration background, socio-cultural capital) and change scores were weak and heterogeneous (|r| < .3; p < .001, except for numbers both p > .01).
“The remaining correlations between the school characteristics and the change scores were weak and heterogeneous (| r | < .3; p < .001, except for numbers both p > .01; RQ3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown data§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)In numbers, cut levels were similar for the 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles and 5 to 7 points lower for the 25th and 5th percentiles in 2020 compared to 2017-2019.
“In numbers, cut levels were similar for the 50 %, 75 %, and 95 % percentiles and 5 to 7 points lower for the 25 % and 5 % percentiles.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ School Change Scores and School Characteristics (RQ3)The correlations between the two background variables (migration background and socio-cultural capital) with each other (r = -.71, p < .001) and with average school competence scores (|r| > .65, p < .001) were very large.
“However, the correlations between the two background variables with each other ( r = -.71, p < .001) as well as with the average school competence scores (| r | > .65, p < .001) were very large.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data§ DiscussionThe annual learning gains in the present study were larger than these projections, ranging from 83-89 % in reading to 84-87 % in numbers and 95-96 % in numbers.
“The annual learning gains in the present study were larger than these projections, ranging from 83-89 % in reading to 84-87 % in numbers and 95-96 % in numbers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the PandemicLearning losses were larger, at least in reading tests, for schools with a large proportion of students with a migration background and for students from less-educated homes.
“Moreover, learning losses were larger, at least in reading tests, for schools with a large proportion of students with a migration background (Maldonado & De Witte, 2021) and for students from less-educated homes (Engzell et al., 2021; Maldonado & De Witte, 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the PandemicIn the Netherlands, the learning loss effect was larger in schools with a high proportion of students with a migration background and in schools with a high proportion of students from non-academic families.
“The effect was larger in schools with a high proportion of students with a migration background and in schools with a high proportion of students from non-academic families.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the PandemicSchools in Belgium were closed for nine weeks in spring 2020, and comparison of test scores from June 2020 with the previous year showed a learning loss of 0.19 standard deviations in mathematics and 0.23 standard deviations in Dutch.
“Schools in Belgium were closed for nine weeks in spring 2020. The comparison of test scores from June 2020 with test scores from the previous year showed a learning loss of 0.19 standard deviations in mathematics and of 0.23 standard deviations in Dutch (Maldonado & De Witte, 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ The Development of Student Achievement During the First Wave of the PandemicIn Hamburg, Germany, incoming fifth-graders' reading scores were higher in the pandemic year 2020 than in 2019 (0.05 standard deviations), while mathematics scores were slightly lower (0.02 standard deviations).
“Surprisingly, students' reading scores were actually higher in the pandemic year 2020 compared to the previous year (0.05 standard deviations). Mathematics scores were slightly lower in 2020 compared to 2019 (0.02 standard deviations).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Depping et al., 2021
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ Study Design and Participating Student CohortsThe tests are mandatory for all public secondary schools in the federal state.
“The tests are mandatory for all public secondary schools in the federal state.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitation§ Data Preparation and Data AnalysisChoosing the three previous years as comparison group is in line with prior approaches, and using more than one year for comparisons reduces possible outlier effects.
“Choosing the three previous years as comparison group is in line with the approach taken by Engzell et al. (2021) and by Maldonado and De Witte (2021). Using more than one year for comparisons reduces possible outlier effects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
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- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationreasoning§ DiscussionThere was less time than usual to focus on the application of operations in tasks that require multistep problem solving and a translation of mathematical relations to real world settings.
“In contrast, there may have been less time than usual to focus on the application of operations in tasks that require multistep problem solving and a translation of mathematical relations to real world settings.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ Study Design and Participating Student CohortsTeachers mark the tests using standardized coding instructions.
“Teachers mark the tests using standardized coding instructions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ DiscussionThe lockdown forced teachers and students to spend more time with basic reading tasks, including distance learning via email, chat, and work sheets.
“A possible explanation could be that the lockdown forced teachers and students to spend more time with basic reading tasks, including distance learning via email, chat, and work sheets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone given§ Data Preparation and Data AnalysisThe analysis uses entire population cohorts.
“The analysis uses entire population cohorts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone given§ Study Design and Participating Student CohortsThe test results are not affecting grades in the classroom, making 'Lernstand 5' a low-stakes assessment.
“The test results are not affecting grades in the classroom, making 'Lernstand 5' a low-stakes assessment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ MeasuresThe tests in the pilot studies contained new items along with a set of linking items that remained constant throughout the years.
“The tests in the pilot studies contained new items along with a set of linking items that remained constant throughout the years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ LimitationsThe average number of books at home was an estimate from previous student cohorts.
“Moreover, the average number of books at home was an estimate from previous student cohorts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone given§ LimitationsThe analysis is based on between-student comparisons.
“The analysis is based on between-student comparisons.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationreasoning§ DiscussionThe heterogeneity within schools may pose a greater challenge to teachers than a slight pandemic-related attenuation of the schools' mean competence level.
“This heterogeneity within schools may well pose a greater challenge to teachers than a slight pandemic-related attenuation of the schools' mean competence level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ DiscussionIn Hamburg, social school characteristics played only a minor role in the explanation of school differences.
“This result is in line with findings from Hamburg, where social school characteristics played only a minor role in the explanation of school differences (Depping et al., 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Depping et al., 2021
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ LimitationsThe present study only provides insights regarding changes of reading and mathematics competencies.
“With its focus on specific competencies, the present study only provides insights regarding changes of reading and mathematics competencies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionSchool closures are not followed by a uniform loss of learning across all groups of students but rather by a heterogeneous learning backlog.
“This may indicate that school closures are not followed by a uniform loss of learning across all groups of students but rather by a heterogeneous learning backlog (RQ2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Comparisons for High-, Average-, and Low-Achieving Groups (RQ2)Taken together, the differences in reading comprehension were larger for high-achieving students, whereas in mathematics they were larger for low-achieving students.
“Taken together, the differences in reading comprehension were larger for high-achieving students, whereas in mathematics they were larger for low-achieving students.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationreasoning§ DiscussionTeachers put a stronger emphasis on arithmetic tasks that students could practice at home on their own during the pandemic year 2020.
“This may reflect that teachers put a stronger emphasis on arithmetic tasks that students could practice at home on their own during the pandemic year 2020.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationcitation§ Implications for TeachingSimilar factors that make teaching effective are also critical when it comes to distance learning.
“We suggest that similar factors are also critical when it comes to distance learning (Muijs, 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Muijs, 2021
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitation§ Data Preparation and Data AnalysisUsing a higher number of pre-pandemic years for comparisons could have introduced bias associated with more general long-term trends in student achievement.
“Using a higher number of pre-pandemic years for comparisons, however, could have introduced bias associated with more general long-term trends in student achievement (Stanat et al., 2017).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Stanat et al., 2017
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationcitation§ DiscussionThe present findings suggest that teachers', parents', and students' efforts to adapt to the disruption were often beneficial, because the cohort differences were smaller than the estimated short-term loss of learning during the actual school lockdown.
“Overall, the present findings suggest that teachers' (as well as parents' and students') efforts to adapt to the disruption were often beneficial, because the cohort differences turned out to be smaller than the estimated short-term loss of learning during the actual school lockdown (Engzell et al., 2021; Maldonado & De Witte, 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Engzell et al., 2021
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Maldonado & De Witte, 2021
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoning§ Implications for TeachingThe exact causal links between formative online assessment and performance remain unclear because the samples were self-selected and the interventions were at the same time the competence assessment used as outcome.
“Still, the exact causal links remain unclear, because the samples were self-selected and the interventions were at the same time the competence assessment used as outcome (which facilitates method effects).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ Implications for TeachingAdvanced digitalization of schools seems to be a necessary precondition for effective distance teaching and learning.
“Advanced digitalization of schools seems to be a necessary precondition for effective distance teaching and learning.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ LimitationsThe suspension of mandatory grade repetitions might have led to a larger than usual number of low-achieving students in the 2020 cohort.
“This might also have led to a larger than usual number of low-achieving students in the 2020 cohort.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: In Germany, students with low achievements often have to repeat a grade.
- Rests on an assumption: In the wake of the first COVID-19 wave, mandatory grade repetitions were suspended.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ LimitationsThe analysis of school characteristics (RQ3) cannot be translated directly to individual students without risking an ecological fallacy.
“The analysis of school characteristics (RQ3) cannot be translated directly to individual students without risking an ecological fallacy.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitation§ Data Preparation and Data AnalysisThe difficulty parameters of the linking items were estimated in 2014 after the first pilot study and retained for the scaling of all subsequent pilot studies (fixed parameter calibration).
“The difficulty parameters of the linking items were estimated in 2014 after the first pilot study and retained for the scaling of all subsequent pilot studies (fixed parameter calibration; Kolen & Brennan, 2014, p. 182-183).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Kolen & Brennan, 2014
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ LimitationsThe 2020 scores may reflect not just effects of school closures but also specific variance introduced by the particular tests used in 2020 despite standardized development and scaling.
“The 2020 scores may reflect not just effects of school closures but also specific variance introduced by the particular tests that were used in 2020 despite the standardized development and scaling.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ LimitationsThe background characteristics were only available at the school level.
“The background characteristics were only available at the school level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The 2017-2019 cohorts are a valid pre-pandemic comparison for the 2020 cohort, such that observed differences reflect pandemic effects rather than secular trends or other cohort differences.
“Using more than one year for comparisons reduces possible outlier effects. Using a higher number of pre-pandemic years for comparisons, however, could have introduced bias associated with more general long-term trends in student achievement (Stanat et al., 2017).”
The paper relies on this without support.
In Germany, students with low achievements often have to repeat a grade.
“In Germany, students with low achievements often have to repeat a grade ( n = 262 after the school year 2018/19 in Baden-Württemberg).”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the wake of the first COVID-19 wave, mandatory grade repetitions were suspended.
“In the wake of the first COVID-19 wave, such mandatory grade repetitions were suspended.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The additional students in the 2020 cohort are on the lower end of the empirical ability distribution.
“Assuming that the additional students are on the lower end of the empirical ability distribution, this effect may theoretically account for up to 0.01 standard deviations.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Reasons for finding larger learning losses in mathematics than in reading might be that students spent more time on reading during school closures and that supporting children in reading skills might have been easier for parents than supporting mathematics.
“On the other hand, reasons for finding larger learning losses in mathematics than in reading might be that students spent more time on reading during school closures and that supporting children in their reading skills might have been easier to realize for parents than supporting children in improving their competencies in mathematics (e.g., Depping et al., 2021; Schult et al., 2021).”
From Effects of COVID-19-Related School Closures on Student Achievement-A Systematic Review (2021) · cites this paper as Schult et al., 2021
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLow-performing students were more affected by COVID-19-related school closures in mathematics, while high-performing students were more affected in reading (Schult et al., 2021).
“Third, low-performing students were more affected by COVID-19-related school closures in mathematics, while high-performing students were more affected by COVID-19-related school closures in reading (Schult et al., 2021).”
From Effects of COVID-19-Related School Closures on Student Achievement-A Systematic Review (2021) · cites this paper as Schult et al., 2021
Schult et al. (2021) document that fifth-grade students are slightly behind across the board, with the largest impact among low-achieving students in math.
“Schult et al. (2021) document that fifth-grade students are slightly behind across the board, with the largest impact among low-achieving students in math.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Schult et al. (2021)
In Baden-Württemberg, dispersion of pupils' competence levels within individual schools could pose greater challenges for teachers than a slight pandemic-related weakening of the average competence level.
“Schult et al. [9] stated that the dispersion of the competence levels of pupils within the individual schools could pose greater challenges for the teachers than a slight pandemic-related weakening of the average competence level at the school [9] (p.18).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, the more pronounced reading competence differences in high-performance pupils could be due to more time spent on basic reading tasks during school closures.
“According to the authors of the study, this difference could be due to the fact that during school closures, more time is spent on basic reading tasks, such as reading e-mails and text in the chat [9] (p.17).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, school characteristics such as socio-economic capital and proportion of pupils with an immigrant background carried hardly any weight in relation to changes in competence values.
“The effect of school characteristics, such as socio-economic capital and the proportion of pupils with an immigrant background, carried hardly any weight in relation to the changes of the competence values at the schools [9] (p.17).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, average and weaker pupils in the 2020 test showed greater deficits in mathematical operations than previous cohorts, while this difference was not demonstrated in high-performance pupils.
“The results of the investigations also suggest that average and weaker pupils in the 2020 test showed greater deficits in terms of mathematical operations than the cohorts from previous years.This difference could not be demonstrated in the high-performance pupils [9] (p.17).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, differences in reading competence were more pronounced in high-performance pupils than in low-performance pupils.
“The differences that were found with regard to reading competence were more pronounced in the group of high-performance pupils than in the group of low-performance pupils [9] (p.14).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, comparing standardized reading test values from 2017-2019 (n = 249,862) with 2020 (n = 81,810) showed a negative effect of Cohen's d = -0.07.
“When comparing the standardized test values from the years 2017 to 2019 (before school closure, n = 249,862) with those that were collected in 2020 (after school closure, n = 81,810), there is a negative effect of Cohen's d = -0.07[9] (p.29).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
In Baden-Württemberg, based on an augmented competence of 0.65 standard deviations in a normal school year, pupils lagged behind in competence development by one month due to school closures.
“The authors came to the conclusion that, based on an augmented competence of 0.65 standard deviations in a normal school year, the pupils lagged behind in their competence development by one month due to the school closures [9] (p.16).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
Taking into account the results of Schult et al. and Kogan and Lavertu, the estimated average learning loss of around 0.1 standard deviations is not expected to change.
“If, in addition to this, one also takes into account the results that Schult et al. [9] and Kogan and Lavertu [10,11] come to, there is not expected to be any change in this estimated value.”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
Schult et al. stated that the data across all these studies and domains indicate an average learning loss of around 0.1 standard deviations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
“Schult et al. [9], referring to the studies by Depping et al. [8], Moldonado and De Witte [5], Meeter [7], Engzell et al. [6] and Kuhfeld et al. [4] stated that the data across all these studies and domains indicate an average learning loss of around 0.1 standard deviations during the first wave of the COVID 19 pandemic in 2020 [9] (p. 7).”
From Effects of Pandemic-Related School Closures on Pupils’ Performance and Learning in Selected Countries: A Rapid Review (2021) · cites this paper as [9]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Annual learning-gain range is assigned to two different domains
MinorThe discussion gives two incompatible ranges for annual learning gains in the numbers domain: 84-87% and 95-96%. The reported effect sizes and baselines support 84-87% for operations and 95-96% for numbers.
“84-87 % in numbers”
“95-96 % in numbers”
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- Authors
- Schult, J., Mahler, N., Fauth, B., & Lindner, M. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Tübingen (DE)
- Leibniz Institute for Science and Mathematics Education (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Schult, Johannes
- Venue
- School Effectiveness and School Improvement
- Publisher
- Center for Open Science
- Published
- 2021-03-11
- Volume
- 33
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 544-563
- ISSN
- 0924-3453 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4225792954
- Cited by
- 262
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 71 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 46 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 107.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- School Effectiveness and School Improvement (publishedVersion)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, learning loss, school closures, distance education, reading comprehension, mathematical ability, fifth grade students, low-achieving students, socio-cultural capital, migration background, school characteristics, large-scale assessment, Baden-Württemberg
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