Pandemic Schooling Mode and Student Test Scores: Evidence from US States
Open accessAbstract
We estimate the impact of district-level schooling mode (in-person versus hybrid or distance learning) on test scores.We combine Spring 2021 state standardized test score data with comprehensive data on schooling in the 2020-21 school year across 12 states.We find that pass rates declined compared to prior years and that these declines were larger in districts with less inperson instruction.Passing rates in math declined by 14.2 percentage points on average; we estimate this decline was 10.1 percentage points smaller for districts fully in-person.Changes in English language arts scores were smaller, but were significantly larger in districts with larger populations of students who are Black, Hispanic or eligible for free and reduced price lunch.
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Halloran et al. (2021) show that shares of in-person schooling time varied from 9 percent in Virginia to 98 percent in Florida.
“Halloran et al. (2021) use school district-level data from 12 US states for the 2020-2021 academic year and show that shares of in-person schooling time varied from 9 percent in Virginia to 98 percent in Florida.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Halloran et al. (2021)
Halloran et al. (2021) see larger effects in districts with more students of color and a greater number of students eligible for free lunch.
“The authors see larger effects in districts with more students of color and a greater number of students eligible for free lunch.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Halloran et al. (2021)
Halloran et al. (2021) conclude that this gap would have only been four percentage points if schools had remained open throughout the period, though the effects are likely to be downward biased due to missing data.
“By associating variation in time spent in different learning modes over the 2020/2021 academic year (remote, hybrid, in-person) with district-level information on test scores, the authors conclude that this gap would have only been four percentage points if schools had remained open throughout the period, though the effects are likely to be downward biased due to missing data.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Halloran et al. (2021)
Halloran et al. (2021) confirm that districts with a greater share of black students and a higher share of students receiving free lunches offered less in-person schooling.
“Halloran et al. (2021) confirm this picture in a sample of 12 states, documenting that districts with a greater share of black students and a higher share of students receiving free lunches offered less in-person schooling.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Halloran et al. (2021)
Halloran et al. (2021) show that proficiency rates in English and math were on average 14 percentage points lower during the pandemic.
“grade, Halloran et al. (2021) show that proficiency rates in English and math were on average 14 percentage points lower during the pandemic.”
From Educational Inequality* (2022) · cites this paper as Halloran et al. (2021)
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“Of note are several papers which use test scores to directly study impacts of Spring 2020 closures on learning, largely in Europe (Tomasik et al., 2021; Engzell et al., 2021; Ardington et al., 2021; Contini et al., 2021; Maldonado and De Witte, 2021; Schult and Linder, 2021).”
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Jia, W., Leon, S., Sylvester, R. M., & Gopalakrishnan, A. (2025) · Journal of School Choice · doi:10.1080/15582159.2024.2443863 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Enrollment Management in Demographic Decline
Grawe, N. D. (2025) · Higher education · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-58698-9_4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Woltran, F., Lindner, K., & Schwab, S. (2025) · Educational Studies · doi:10.1080/03055698.2025.2551355 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Treading New Ground in Teacher and Technology Policy: Implications for Resource Deployment
Brooks, C. D., & Springer, M. G. (2023) · Peabody Journal of Education · doi:10.1080/0161956x.2023.2160102 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Arora, D. (2023) · World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews · doi:10.30574/wjarr.2023.19.3.1879 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Economic Consequences of Pandemics and How to Prevent Them
Cherif, R., Hasanov, F., & Chen, H. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-62772-9_15 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Snowden, L. R., & Graaf, G. (2024) · Journal of Public Health Policy · doi:10.1057/s41271-024-00528-8 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
McCormick, M., Goldberg, M., Swinth, E., Todd, C. S., Carlis, L., Chavez, V., & Xia, S. (2024) · Early Education and Development · doi:10.1080/10409289.2024.2423384 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Back to school: The effect of school visits during COVID-19 on COVID-19 outcomes
Bravata, D. M., Cantor, J., Sood, N., & Whaley, C. (2025) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.103025 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
How Additional Professional time Benefitted Teachers During Covid-19
Marshall, D. T., Love, S. M., Neugebauer, N. M., & Smith, N. E. (2023) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/979-8-88730-192-120251011 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Vit, E. (2022) · Socio hu · doi:10.18030/socio.hu.2022.4.80 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19
Freedman, S. M., Sacks, D. W., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2022) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w30550 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Freedman, S. M., Marquardt, K., Salcedo, D., Simon, K. I., & Wing, C. (2023) · doi:10.21033/wp-2023-04 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Contexts of Convenience: Generalizing from Published Evaluations of School Finance Policies
Handel, D., & Hanushek, E. A. (2023) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w31653 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Spillovers from Public Health Policies in Schools: Evidence from COVID Mask Mandates
Guzman, M., Imberman, S. A., Filosa, N., Kilbride, T., & Malkus, N. (2025) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w33849 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Impact of Schools on the Transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy *Preprint
Lattanzio, S. (2022) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2022.07.18.22276940
Learning is Compromised during Remote Instruction --- A Social Cybernetic Analysis
Smith, T. J. (2022) · Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting · doi:10.1177/1071181322661276
Tradeoffs and Knock-On Effects
Karadimas, P. (2023) · Studies in Public Choice · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-24967-9_4
Aguilar, E. F., Ordóñez, L. A. C., & Donaire, A. B. O. (2023) · Paradigma Revista de investigación educativa · doi:10.5377/paradigma.v30i49.16297
Dembek, G. A., Lauterbach, M. D., & Datchuk, S. M. (2023) · Journal of Research in Childhood Education · doi:10.1080/02568543.2023.2220767
Pendola, A., Marshall, D. T., & Pressley, T. (2024) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/znxa8
COVID-19 Learning Intervention Impact: Data-Driven EvaluationPreprint
Elizondo, M., Yu, J., Payan, D., Li, F., & Tešić, J. (2024) · doi:10.36227/techrxiv.171392833.35385517/v1
Colvin, M. K., Reesman, J. L., & Glen, T. (2024) · doi:10.1093/9780197762660.003.0004
Weathering the storm: a descriptive examination of COVID era proficiency changes in charter schools
Kingsbury, I. (2024) · Frontiers in Education · doi:10.3389/feduc.2024.1277484
Enrollment Management in Demographic Decline
Grawe, N. D. (2024) · Higher education · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-51930-7_4-1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
- Authors
- Halloran, C., Jack, R., Okun, J., & Oster, E.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US)
- ORCID
- Jack, Rebecca
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2021-11
- OpenAlex
- W3217181281
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 3
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Arnold Ventures
- Chan Zuckerberg Initiative
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face teaching, hybrid learning, distance education, standardized test scores, pass rates, academic performance, racial and ethnic disparities, school districts
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