Projecting the Potential Impact of COVID-19 School Closures on Academic Achievement
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2019–2020 school year, education systems scrambled to meet the needs of students and families with little available data on how school closures may impact learning. In this study, we produced a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss based on (a) estimates from absenteeism literature and (b) analyses of summer learning patterns of 5 million students. Under our projections, returning students are expected to start fall 2020 with approximately 63 to 68% of the learning gains in reading and 37 to 50% of the learning gains in mathematics relative to a typical school year. However, we project that losing ground during the school closures was not universal, with the top third of students potentially making gains in reading.
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Students returned to the Fall 2020 semester with less than 50% of the mathematics-specific learning gains that would be anticipated in a typical school year.
“In particular, they suggested that students returned to the Fall 2020 semester with less than 50% of the mathematics-specific learning gains that would be anticipated in a typical school year.”
From Student experience using synchronous and asynchronous instruction in mathematics classes (2024) · cites this paper as Kuhfeld and Tarasawa (2020)
The weekly learning loss during the spring 2020 school closures lies in the range of summer learning losses (d = -0.005 SD to -0.050 SD per week).
“which lies in the range of summer learning losses (d = -0.005SD to -0.050 SD per week; Kuhfeld, Ruzek et al., 2020).”
From The Impact of COVID‐19‐Related School Closures on Student Achievement—A Meta‐Analysis (2022) · cites this paper as Kuhfeld, Ruzek et al., 2020
The literature reports reductions in achievement ranging from 0.001 to 0.010 SD per school day lost during summer.
“This literature reports reductions in achievement ranging from 0.001 to 0.010 SD per school day lost (10).”
From Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
The literature about school interruptions shows learning losses to be larger in mathematics than in reading.
“This is surprising, since the literature about school interruptions shows learning losses to be larger in mathematics than in reading (Kuhfeld et al., 2020).”
From The effect of school closures on standardised student test outcomes (2022) · cites this paper as Kuhfeld et al., 2020
Learning loss due to forgetting previously obtained knowledge, similar to summer learning loss, can account for approximately 0.18 standard deviations.
“In addition, learning loss due to forgetting previously obtained knowledge, similar to the summer learning loss, can already account for approximately 0.18 standard deviations (Kuhfeld et al., 2020;Atteberry & McEachin, 2021).”
From The effect of school closures on standardised student test outcomes (2022) · cites this paper as Kuhfeld et al., 2020
Kuhfeld et al. (2020) projected that students who did not have access to remote instruction (3 months) in spring 2020 would begin fall 2020 with only 37% to 68% of typical learning gains in reading and mathematics.
“Kuhfeld et al. (2020) projected that students who did not have access to remote instruction (3 months) in spring 2020 would begin fall 2020 with only 37% to 68% of typical learning gains in reading and mathematics, and some students may be up to one year behind in mathematics.”
From Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Student Learning and Opportunity Gaps Across the 2020–2021 School Year: A National Survey of Teachers (2022) · cites this paper as Kuhfeld et al. (2020)
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- Authors
- Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Tarasawa, B., Johnson, A., Ruzek, E., & Liu, J.
- Affiliations
- Northwest Evaluation Association (US)
- University of Virginia (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kuhfeld, Megan
- Venue
- Educational Researcher
- Published
- 2020-10-28
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 549-565
- ISSN
- 0013-189X (ISSN-L)
- 1935-102X
- OpenAlex
- W3097159547
- Cited by
- 997
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 51 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 144 · 2023: 197 · 2022: 286 · 2021: 220 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 275.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Educational Researcher (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, school closures, learning loss, academic performance, summer learning loss, absenteeism, reading achievement, mathematics achievement, 2019/2020 academic year
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