CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 65Archaeological Research and ProtectionArchaeology and Cultural HeritageGeophysical Methods and Applications

The DOI matches its Crossref record, with a small difference in title or year; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 16 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Intensities, interactions and uncertainties: some new approaches to archaeological distributions

Open access
·2016·Computational Approaches to Archaeological Spaces
DOI 10.4324/9781315431932-8
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

In the last two decades an increasing number of archaeological least-cost path (LCP) studies have been published. LCP analysis recently has become part of the predictive modelling toolkit in American archaeology. Most archaeologists applying push-button LCP software are not aware of the limitations of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) functions. The chapter shows that standard GIS software lacks some features that are important in archaeological optimal path calculations. The developments of LCP analysis and cost-surface analysis in archaeology are closely connected, because, as mentioned, most LCP methods calculate an accumulated cost surface (ACS) as a first step. Dijkstra's algorithm selects one optimal path in the presence of several alternatives. Batten advocates starting with the simplest model, which, in nigged terrain, is based mainly on slope, and to refine this model if necessary after comparing the paths based on the simple model with the known or expected paths.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This chapter argues for formal point-pattern modelling in archaeology, combining multi-scalar statistics, Monte Carlo simulation, inhomogeneous first-order models, and aoristic treatment of temporal uncertainty. Three case studies—Qin crossbow triggers, Iron Age I West Bank settlements, and Middle Jomon settlements—show how these methods can distinguish first- and second-order effects and assess clustering/regularity under uncertainty.

Key findings

  • In a hypothetical 10x10m pattern, the pair correlation function correctly identifies a switch from significant regularity to significant clustering at c.0.25m, whereas a traditional nearest neighbour index misleadingly suggests the pattern is random or only very slightly clustered (r=0.91).
  • For Qin terracotta pit 1, crossbow trigger sub-group 2 is strongly clustered beyond the battle-formation structure, with the PCF showing particularly strong clustering up to c.3–4m and then up to c.7–8m.
  • In the Iron Age I central West Bank case, 99 sites across 766 sq.km show univariate correlations with site intensity of r²=0.72 for elevation, r²=0.23 for rainfall, r²=0.82 for ridge landforms, and r²=0.54 for topographic wetness; multivariate stepwise AIC excludes rainfall and retains the other three as significant (p<0.05 or better). Nearest neighbour distances spike at just over 1,000–1,250m, and an area-interaction model uses a radius of just over 655m with catchments of less than 135 ha.
  • In the Middle Jomon Chiba case, 1,418 pithouses from 120 excavations in a 15x15 km area were analysed with 1,000 simulations for two 100-year blocks: 2950–2850 cal BC shows aggregation up to 600–1,000m, while 2750–2650 cal BC shows short-distance clustering only below c.300m, dispersion at c.2,500m, and aggregation at c.4,900m in >95% of simulations.

Methods

  • The chapter is a methodological synthesis with theoretical discussion and three archaeological case studies, using point-pattern abstractions and distinguishing first-order intensity from second-order interaction effects against complete spatial randomness/Poisson baselines.
  • Data: Qin pit 1 bronze crossbow triggers and terracotta warriors; Iron Age I central West Bank survey data covering 766 sq.km with 99 sites and four environmental covariates (elevation, average annual rainfall, ridge-top landforms, topographic wetness); Middle Jomon western Tokyo Bay/Chiba data covering 15x15 km, 120 excavations, and 1,418 pithouses.
  • Analysis: pair correlation functions, K/L functions, nearest-neighbour histograms, Monte Carlo envelopes (999 simulations generally; 1,000 spatio-temporal realisations for Jomon), univariate and multivariate regression with stepwise AIC, inhomogeneous point process models, an area-interaction model, and aoristic temporal probabilities.

Limitations

  • Stated: archaeological observations are partial and imperfect; patchy preservation and investigation can produce first-order variation; temporal uncertainty and chronological palimpsests can thwart single-period point patterns; equifinality and multifinality prevent cast-iron causal claims; Monte Carlo envelopes are not exact significance envelopes for multiple critical values; edge effects complicate irregular study areas; and full aoristic enumeration is computationally prohibitive.
  • Stated: in the Iron Age I case, continuing regularity may mean an important environmental covariate was not considered; Jomon results need caution; and at some spatial scales, such as c.1,500m, clustering and dispersion are roughly equal, implying insufficient information for robust conclusions.
  • Evident from the text: the case studies are deliberately illustrative or proof-of-concept rather than exhaustive tests, and some PCF signals are described as marginal or dependent on selected study areas and datasets.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.4324/9781315431932-8

Cites

9 of 9 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 16 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    The overall crossbow trigger distribution in pit 1 is strongly clustered in space due to corridor shape and the terracotta army's battle formation.

    “A plot of these artefacts against the warriors (Figure 3) makes it clear that the overall crossbow trigger distribution itself is strongly clustered in space due both to the shape of the corridors and the nature of terracotta army's battle formation (with crossbowmen only in certain parts of the army, particularly along the flanks).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The first-order variables such as evenly-spaced ridgelines did not account for the short-distance regularity in settlement.

    “As mentioned above, we might conceivably anticipate that one or more of the first order variables, such as evenly--spaced ridgelines, might have accounted for some of the short distance regularity in settlement, but this is not the case.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.
  • Findingown data

    The trigger sub-group shown in figure 4a exhibits small but distinct morphological and typological differences from other triggers.

    “A good example is the trigger sub--group shown in figure 4a.This is a group that, when studied in detailed, exhibits small but distinct morphological and typological differences from other triggers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    A traditional nearest neighbour index misleadingly suggests the simulated pattern is random or only very slightly clustered (r=0.91).

    “If, for example, we calculate a traditional nearest neighbour index (Clark and Evans 1954;Hodder and Orton 1976: 38--51) that has been, for better or worse, the bread--and--butter of archaeological point pattern analysis for many years, it misleadingly suggests that the pattern is random or only very slightly clustered (r=0.91).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Clark and Evans 1954

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Hodder and Orton 1976: 38--51

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    Group 2 triggers in the pit are visibly clustered beyond the pattern imposed by the battle formation.

    “In fact, the group 2 triggers in the pit are, themselves, visibly clustered, beyond the pattern imposed by the battle formation (Figure 4a) and, again, there may not be a need for a formal method to recognise it in this case.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 34
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 3
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 25

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Multivariate regression with stepwise AIC selection excludes rainfall, retains elevation, ridge-top landforms, and topographic wetness as significant (p<0.05 or better), and is substantially more effective than a null random hypothesis.

    “If we now run a multivariate regression and select the best combination of these four variables via stepwise comparison (minimising an Akaike Information Criterion), we find that rainfall is excluded as we might expect, that the other three variables are all significant (p<0.05 or better), and that this new model with a first--order trend is substantially more effective that a null, random hypot”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    The histogram of observed nearest neighbour distances now falls within the Monte Carlo envelope under the area-interaction model.

    “Figures 7d demonstrates that the histogram of observed nearest neighbour distances now falls within the Monte Carlo envelope.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Points have notional territories of influence around them.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The observed PCF of the Iron I settlements shows something very close to regularity at shorter distances up to ca.1km, though the Monte Carlo envelope suggests this might be of marginal significance.

    “The observed PCF shows something very close to regularity at shorter distances of up to ca.1km, although the Monte Carlo envelope suggests that this might be of marginal significance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Findingnone given

    Much of the variability in observed spatial patterns in archaeology is due to patchy levels of archaeological preservation and investigation.

    “Much of the variability in our observed spatial patterns in archaeology is due to patchy levels of archaeological preservation and investigation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    In this simulated example, no first-order effects are present and the process operates uniformly across the study area.

    “In this case, no first-order effects are present and the process operates in a uniform way across the whole hypothetical study area.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The PCF for the trigger sub-group shows particularly strong clustering up to distances of about 3-4m and then up to 7-8m, with further possible clustering at much larger distances.

    “More precisely, the plot indicates particularly strong clustering of this sub--group up to distances of perhaps 3--4m radius and then up to 7--8m, with further possible clustering at much larger distances.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Metrical, typological and materials analysis of the crossbow triggers distinguishes subtle but undeniably different trigger sub-groups, suggesting different weapon-casting moulds, metallurgical workshops and/or organisational practices.

    “More precisely, metrical, typological and materials analysis of the triggers has been able to distinguish subtle but undeniably different trigger sub--groups that suggest the existence of different weapon--casting moulds, different metallurgical workshops and/or different organisational practices.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    A histogram of nearest neighbour distances shows a spike at just over 1,000-1,250m, and a Monte Carlo 95% envelope suggests this pattern is unlikely to occur by chance.

    “If we then look at a simple histogram of nearest neighbour distances (figure 7b), we can see a spike at just over 1,000--1,250m and a Monte Carlo 95% envelope suggests that this pattern is unlikely to occur by chance (for this method with histograms of nearest neighbour distances, see also Wilson and Melnick 1990).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wilson and Melnick 1990

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    The case study area is located on the western side of Tokyo Bay, near Chiba, and comprises a 15x15 km area with 120 excavations documenting 1418 Jomon pithouses attributed to Early to Late Jomon (ca.5050--1270 cal.BC).

    “The case study area for the analysis that follows is located on the western side of Tokyo Bay, near the modern city of Chiba.We have chosen an arbitrary square-shaped area of 15x15 km within which 120 separate open--area excavations have documented some 1 4 1 8 Jomon pithouses that can each be attributed to somwhere between the Early and Late Jomon period (ca.5050--1270 cal.BC; figure 8a).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Sites are more common at higher elevations, where landforms are more ridge-like, and where patches of ground offer better access to surface water or soil moisture.

    “In other words, sites are more common a) at higher elevations, b) where the landforms are more ridge--like in shape, and c) where patches of ground offer better access to surface water or soil moisture.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    Most site distribution maps result from historically-complex sites and monuments records or unsystematic surveys, and many perceived clusters reflect where people have recently looked or modern development has exposed archaeology.

    “For example, most site distribution maps are the result of historically--complex sites and monuments records or unsystematic surveys -many of the perceived clusters of observations are to do with where people have recently looked, where modern development has recently exposed new archaeology, etc.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    In the simulated example, the PCF successfully and accurately documents the shift from significantly regular to clustered effects and the subsequent tailing off to random.

    “In this example, the PCF successfully and accurately documents the shift from significantly regular to clustered effects (the critical feature in this kind of plots is usually the point of inflection at about y=1, e.g.here at ca. 0.25m, rather than the top or bottom of observed humps in the PCF), and thereafter the slow tailing off of this clustering until the pattern becomes wholly random.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    For the simulated point pattern, the observed PCF begins below y=1 at short distances, indicating possible regularity, then climbs above y=1, indicating medium-distance clustering, before dropping back toward y=1.

    “This observed result begins well below the theoretically random threshold of y=1, indicating the possible regularity of this pattern at short distances, then climbs well above this threshold, indicating medium distance clustering, before dropping slowly back down towards y=1.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    At much larger spatial scales, there are a few instances of dispersed patterns, but these are fairly rare, with an exception at ca. 4,700--4,900m, where about 70% of the simulated patterns showed dispersion.

    “At much larger spatial scales, there are a few instances of dispersed patterns, but these are fairly rare, with an exception at ca. 4,700--4,900m, where about 70% of the simulated patterns showed dispersion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The patterns for the two different time periods are not the same, with the former being characterized by greater nucleation and the latter possibly by greater dispersion at medium distances and aggregation at higher distances (broad clumps of settlement activity with intervening spaces of some 5km).

    “Clearly, the patterns for the two different time periods are not the same, with the former being characterized by a greater nucleation and the latter possibly by greater dispersion at medium distances and aggregation at higher distances (i.e.broad clumps of settlement activity with intervening spaces of some 5km between these).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    A few hundred years later, when population size reached its peak (2750--2650 cal BC), the settlement pattern is notably different: short-distance clustering is still present but only occurs over a much smaller range (<300m radius).

    “A few hundred years later, when the population size reached its peak (2750--2650 cal BC), the settlement pattern is notably d i f ferent.Firstly, t h e short--distance clustering is still present, but now only occurs of a much smaller range (<300m radius).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    At some spatial scales (e.g., ca. 1,500m), the number of instances of clustering and dispersion are roughly equal, implying that available information is insufficient to draw robust conclusions.

    “Also notice how, at some spatial scales, (e.g. at ca.1,500m), the number of instances of clustering and dispersion are roughly equal, implying that our levels of available information are insufficient to draw any robust conclusions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Univariate correlations between site intensity and elevation (r2=0.72), average annual rainfall (r2=0.23), ridge landforms (r2=0.82), and topographic wetness index (r2=0.54).

    “Figure 6 . Figure 6.Univariate correlations between site intensity and a) elevation above sea--level (r 2 =0.72),(b) average annual rainfall (r 2 =0.23), (c) ridge landforms (r 2 =0.82), and (d) topographic wetness index summed over a local neighbourhood (r 2 =0.54).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    There is strong evidence for patterns of dispersion (regular-spacing) at separation distances of c.2,500 meters during the peak population period.

    “Secondly there is strong evidence for patterns of dispersion (i.e.regular--spacing) at separation distances of c.2,500 meters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    Archaeological observations are very partial, imperfect records of past activity.

    “One final, complicating factor for archaeologists is the fact that archaeological observations are very partial, imperfect records of past activity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    If 90% of all possible point patterns are spatially clustered, we will have relatively high confidence that the observed pattern was indeed clustered.

    “If for instance, 90% of all the possible point patterns are spatially clustered, we will have a relatively high confidence that the observed pattern was indeed clustered.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    It is difficult and often misleading to consider second-order effects before properly accounting for first-order effects.

    “A basic lesson from many practical analyses is that it is difficult, and often entirely misleading, to consider second--order effects before properly accounting for first--order effects.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The choice of the 766 sq.km hilly dolomite upland study area reduces complicating factors because it was investigated fairly evenly by a single project and has generally consistent underlying geology.

    “This choice of area is deliberate: it reduces the range of complicating factors that need to be considered below, both because it was investigated in a fairly even way by a single archaeological project, and because it covers an area of generally consistent underlying geology (with some knock--on implications for soils, topography, etc).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    In their original form, K, L or pair correlation functions were not easily applied to inhomogeneous and edge-affected cases, but such problems are now becoming increasingly tractable.

    “In their original form, methods such as K, L or pair correlation functions were not easily applied to these kinds of inhomogeneous and edge--affected cases, but such problems are now becoming increasingly tractable.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    Real archaeological distributions rarely, if ever, manifest as completely recovered, simply bounded datasets.

    “Of course, real archaeological distributions rarely, if ever, manifest themselves as such completely recovered, simply bounded datasets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The non-cumulative nature of the PCF offers certain advantages over K or L functions for analysing patterns with multiple scales and different kinds of interaction, though such methods offer complementary perspectives.

    “In fact, the non-cumulative nature of the PCF offers certain advantages over K or L functions for analysing patterns with these kinds of multiple scales and different kinds of interaction, although, in general, such methods offer complementary perspectives.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    We can easily build simulations to observe what kind of spatial pattern is produced by any single realisation of a particular point process of known design.

    “For now it is simply worth noting that, we can easily build simulations in which to observe what kind of spatial pattern is produced by any single realisation of a particular point process o f k n o w d e s i g n .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    The nearest neighbour histogram provides a slightly more discerning picture of very short distance patterning and confirms the evidence for regular spacing initially visible in the PCF.

    “In other words, the nearest neighbour histogram provides a slightly more discerning picture of very short distance patterning that confirms the evidence for regular spacing that was initially visible in the PCF (the same observation is valid for other multi-scalar functions such as K and L as well).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationreasoning

    At this stage, it cannot be determined whether the regular spacing was induced by external influences such as evenly spaced ridge-tops or by internal processes that inhibited settlements being located close to one another.

    “At this stage however, we cannot be sure whether such regular spacing has been induced by the spatial structure of some important external influence on site location (e.g.evenly spaced ridge-tops) or is due to internal processes that inhibited settlements being located close to one another (e.g.competition over resources).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Behind any patterns of regularity or clustering are interesting alternative processes beyond a purely stochastic and Poisson process.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationcitation

    The pair correlation function (PCF) is less well known but arguably more useful in many circumstances.

    “Here we emphasise another related method, the pair correlation function (PCF), which is less well known, but arguably more useful in many circumstances (several similar functions go by other: see Ilian et al. 2010: 218--23;Wiegand andMaloney 2004, Perry et al. 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Ilian et al. 2010: 218--23

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Wiegand andMaloney 2004

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Perry et al. 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    In many real world examples, multiple processes are at work and/or behave differently in different parts of the study area.

    “However, in many real world examples, it is likely that multiple processes are at work and/or that they behave differently in different parts of the study area (i.e. they can be described as 'inhomogeneous', 'heterogeneous' and/or 'non--stationary'; for an archaeological example with aggregated count data rather than point patterns, see Bevan and Conolly 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bevan and Conolly 2009

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Predictive modelling has been a commonplace way of assessing first-order properties, demonstrating correlations between probability of discovering sites and environmental variables.

    “For example, at the scale of landscapes and archaeological sites, 'predictive modelling' (e.g.Mehrer and Wescott 2006; Verhagen and Whitley 2011)foot_2 has been a commonplace way of assessing first--order properties, demonstrating, for example, correlations between the probability of discovering sites in a particular study area and the distribution of one or more environmental variables (e.g.soils”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Mehrer and Wescott 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Verhagen and Whitley 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    The theoretical y=1 threshold is often an unreliable baseline, and Monte Carlo envelopes are more useful.

    “For a variety of reasons however, this theoretical y=1 threshold is often an unreliable baseline, and it is more useful to use Monte Carlo methods that offer an 'envelope' of possible values that we might expect under a null model in which the point process generating this pattern is assumed to be wholly random.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Several studies have indicated a sudden rise in the overall number of Jomon residential units during the first part of the Middle Jomon period (ca.3530--2470 cal.BC), followed by a rapid collapse after few centuries.

    “For example, several studies (e.g.Imamura 1996) have indicated a sudden rise in the overall number of Jomon residential units during the first part of the Middle Jomon period (ca.3530--2470 cal.BC), followed by a rapid collapse after few centuries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Imamura 1996

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In other cases, the chronological range of sites under investigation is even broader and the risk of drawing misleading conclusions is correspondingly greater.

    “In other cases, the chronological range of the sites under investigation is even broader and the risk of drawing misleading conclusions is correspondingly greater.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    Temporal uncertainty is a near ubiquitous feature of archaeological datasets, whether radiocarbon dates, geoarchaeological deposits or individual artefacts.

    “It is a near ubiquitous feature of archaeological datasets, whether these are radiocarbon dates, geoarchaeological deposits or individual artefacts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Each observed PCF can be compared to an envelope generated from 999 Monte Carlo sets, each with an identical number of points and each only allowed to exist within the 120 parent locations where Early to Late Jomon pithouses have been recovered.

    “Just as in our earlier case studies, each observed PCF can be compared to an envelope generated from 999 Monte Carlo sets, each with an identical number of points and each only allowed to exist within the 120 parent locations where Early to Late Jomon pithouses has been actually been recovered.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given

    Rarely if ever are predictive modelling and nearest neighbour/quadrat methods brought together to treat the issue as an analytically-related whole.

    “However, rarely if ever, are these two methods brought together to treat the issue as an analytically--related whole.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is possible that the continuing regularity means an important environmental covariate has not been considered, but the analysis moves closer to ruling this possibility out.

    “Of course, it is possible that this continuing regularity simply means that some important environmental covariate has not been considered, but nevertheless, we are now at least moving closer towards ruling this possibility out.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    More recent spatial statistical methods consider multiple scales of second-order patterning and explore how likely they are to have occurred by chance.

    “There are however more recent spatial statistical methods that consider multiple scales of second--order patterning and explore how likely or unlikely they are to have occurred by chance (for a technical overview, see Gelfand et al. 2010: 263--423).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gelfand et al. 2010: 263--423

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    A whole host of more advanced analytical methods have been discussed in the spatial statistical literature over the last 20-30 years.

    “Alongside the theoretical issues raised above, a whole host of more advanced analytical methods have been discussed in the spatial statistical literature over the last 20--30 years (for a recent overview: Gelfand et al. 2010: 263--423).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Gelfand et al. 2010: 263--423

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    These advanced methods have been used in applied fields such as astronomy or ecology for a long time, but have been slow to percolate into archaeology.

    “These have been used in certain applied fields such as astronomy or ecology for a long time, but have been slow to percolate into other disciplines such as archaeology.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    In real world contexts, the process that generated the points is typically unknown, and the challenge is to learn about first- and second-order effects solely via analysis of the resulting pattern.

    “In real world contexts h o w e v e r , the process that generated the points is typically unknown, and the challenge becomes the degree to which we can learn about what the first-- and second--order effects might be solely via analysis of the resulting pattern.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    Setting the area-interaction model parameters to a radius just over 655m and strong but not absolute inhibition leads to site spacings often twice the neighbourhood radius and suggests village catchments of less than 135 ha, a scale not unreasonable given small Iron I community sizes.

    “We can draw upon our knowledge of the observed spacing between settlements and set the parameters to suggest a radius for the interaction neighbourhood of just over 655m radius (half the median nearest neighbour distance), and inhibitive effects that are very strong but not absolute within this zone.These parameters lead to sites spacings that are often twice the neighbourhood radius and which”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Points have notional territories of influence around them.

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Aoristic analysis provides a way of quantifying temporal uncertainties and incorporating them into subsequent analysis, particularly for simple timespans where uniform probabilities are assumed.

    “'Aoristic' analysis is an approach that provides a way of quantifying these temporal uncertainties and incorporating them into subsequent analysis (particularly in the case of simple timespans where we assume uniform probablities).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ratcliffe 2000

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Within a bounded time-span, an event has a similar chance of having occurred at any stage (uniform probability distribution).

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given

    Nearest neighbour tests and quadrat counts have typically been used to assess site spacings, with the implicit assumption that second-order interaction effects are often at work.

    “Conversely, nearest neighbour tests and quadrat counts have typically been used to assess site spacings, with the implicit assumption that second--order interaction effects are often at work.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    The selection of elevation, rainfall, ridge-top landforms, and topographic wetness as covariates is prompted by commentators' informal impressions that rugged topography and hydrology were important factors behind settlement locations in this region and period.

    “This selection is prompted in part by many commentators' informal impressions that rugged topography and hydrology were important factors behind settlement locations in this region and period, for a variety of practical reasons (e.g.Zertal 1988;Gibson 2001; in fact many other possible covariates have been explored but are not considered here).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Zertal 1988

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Gibson 2001

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Traditional Clark and Evans tests are far less discerning than histograms of nearest neighbour distances.

    “Traditional Clark and Evans tests are far less discerning.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Multi-scalar methods such as K, L and pair correlation functions are potentially useful for understanding second-order interactions, but are inappropriate on their own if there are grounds for thinking the patterns exhibit spatial inhomogeneity.

    “c) Multi--scalar methods such as K, L and pair correlation functions are potentially useful for understanding second--order interactions, but are inappropriate on their own if there are grounds for thinking the patterns exhibit spatial inhomogeneity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    The kinds of temporal uncertainty present in most archaeological datasets can be successfully addressed in spatial analysis by adopting a probabilistic and Monte Carlo framework.

    “e) The kinds of temporal uncertainty present in most archaeological datasets can be successfully addressed in spatial analysis by adopting a probabilistic and Monte Carlo framework.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The method of constrained randomisation allows accounting for the patchy nature of modern excavation and for some general first-order locational choices the Jomon may have had over the long term.

    “This method of constrained randomisation is similar to the one adopted for the case study on bronze crossbow triggers, and allows us to account both for the patchy nature of modern excavation and for some general first--order, locational choices the Jomon may have had over the long term (the latter being of great general interest of course, but not for our analysis here).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 120 parent locations where Early to Late Jomon pithouses have been recovered adequately capture the general first-order locational choices of the Jomon over the long term.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The analysis suggests that the beginnings of the dispersed patterning known to be present by the mid 3rd millennium BC is already visible during the period of peak settlement, reflecting possible early instances of group fission plausibly argued as driven by diminishing availability of local food resources.

    “While we still need to treat such results cautiously, the analysis suggest that the beginnings of the dispersed patterning know to be present in anger by the mid 3 rd millenium BC is already visible during the period of peak settlement, reflecting possible early instances of group fission that have been plasuible argued as being driven by the diminishing availability of local food resources.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Monte-Carlo methods allow us to embrace equifinality by weighting alternative hypotheses in probabilistic terms.

    “In other words, Monte--Carlo methods allow us to embrace equifinality by weighting alternative hypothesis in probabilistic terms.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Histograms of the distribution of nearest neighbour distances offer a fairly robust way of exploring short-range regularities in point spacing, and can be made more robust as a confirmatory method via Monte Carlo simulation.

    “b) Histograms of the distribution of nearest neighbour distances offer a fairly robust way of exploring short--range regularities in point spacing, and can be made more robust as a confirmatory method via Monte Carlo simulation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
54 of 54

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Behind any patterns of regularity or clustering are interesting alternative processes beyond a purely stochastic and Poisson process.

    “In particular, we often assume that, behind any patterns of regularity or clustering are also some interesting alternative processes, beyond one that is purely stochastic and Poisson.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All 99 Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase.

    “for example, it is no more than a convenient analytical assumption that all 99 of the Iron I settlements in the central West Bank study area discussed above were inhabited at exactly the same time during that phase which spans a couple of centuries”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Points have notional territories of influence around them.

    “The implicit idea of this model - that points have notional territories of influence around them -is obviously attractive given our understanding of how many human settlements work.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Most commentators agree that there were larger, more nucleated settlements prior to the proposed population collapse and more dispersed, smaller settlements after it.

    “In terms of spatial patterning, most commentators agree that there were larger, more nucleated settlements prior to the proposed population collapse and more dispersed, smaller settlements after it.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Within a bounded time-span, an event has a similar chance of having occurred at any stage (uniform probability distribution).

    “in most instances, we can only suggest a very approximately bounded 'time--span' within which the event is likely to have occurred and, within this, assume a simple, uniform probability distribution (i.e.implying that an event has a similar chance of having occurred at any stage within the time--span).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 120 parent locations where Early to Late Jomon pithouses have been recovered adequately capture the general first-order locational choices of the Jomon over the long term.

    “each only allowed to exist within the 120 parent locations where Early to Late Jomon pithouses has been actually been recovered.”
6 of 6

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Jomon case study points to the wrong figure

    Minor

    The text directs readers to figure 8a for the Jomon pithouse distribution, but Figure 8 depicts a hypothetical temporal-uncertainty example. The Jomon excavation-unit distribution is identified as Figure 9a.

1 of 1

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Metadata

Venue
Computational Approaches to Archaeological Spaces
Publisher
Routledge
Published
2016-06-16
Pages
27-52
DOI
10.4324/9781315431932-8
OpenAlex
W1571208382
Cited by
64
References
1
Citations by year
2025: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 6
FWCI
31.57
Type
book chapter
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • Routledge eBooks (publishedVersion)
  • Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
  • Hebrew University of Jerusalem
  • Institute of Archaeology, University College London
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeological Research and Protection
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Archaeology and Cultural Heritage
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geophysics › Geophysical Methods and Applications
Keywords
least-cost path analysis, archaeological site distribution, Dijkstra's algorithm

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review