The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Abstract. To assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).
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“The results are presented at the global level and for the seven large emitting economies for which national models were available, i.e., Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States, together representing around 65% of global 2010 greenhouse gas emissions18.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
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Citations
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MethodEstimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992
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MethodHoughton, R. A. (2003) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v55i2.16764 · Cited by 1,186 · cited 2×
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MethodThe contribution of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to atmospheric nitrous oxide since 1860
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“The main contribution to N2O emissions comes from the agricultural sector, especially the use of manure and nitrogen fertilizers (Davidson, 2009).”
BackgroundMeinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876 · cited 3×
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BackgroundMethodThe annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use 1850–1990*
Houghton, R. A. (1999) · Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v51i2.16288 · Cited by 852 · cited 4×
“: The dataset is described in a series of papers by Houghton (2008, 2003, 1999).”
MethodInfluentialQuéré, C. L., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S. A., Korsbakken, J. I., Friedlingstein, P., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., et al. (2015) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015 · Cited by 740
The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990–2012
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A 1°×1° resolution data set of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890–1990
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Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels: a procedure for estimation and results for 1950-1982
Marland, G. H., & Rotty, R. M. (1984) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v36i4.14907 · Cited by 393 · cited 2×
“…individual ::::::: sources Uncertainty estimates for the CDIAC dataset of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry have varied since the first assessment made by Marland and Rotty (1984), which resulted in an uncertainty range between 6 and 10% (using a 90% confidence interval).”
BackgroundMethodAndres, R. J., Marland, G. H., FUNG, I. Y., & Matthews, E. (1996) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/96gb01523 · Cited by 301 · cited 10×
“4 % (using a 95 % confidence interval) is offered as a reasonable combination of data (Andres et al., 2014), in an attempt to simplify the different assessments and to make the best of the qualitative and quantitative knowledge developed since the first study of 1984. Different approaches examine CDIAC global uncertai…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialGlobal emission sources and sinks
Olivier, J. G. J., & Berdowski, J. J. M. (2021) · CRC Press eBooks · doi:10.1201/9781003211266-2 · Cited by 282
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“Agricultural emissions on the other hand have a high uncertainty as the emissions are10 based on natural processes : , which depend on locally and seasonally fluctuating variables like soil moisture (see e.g. Luo et al. (2013)).”
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Marland, G. H., & Rotty, R. M. (1984) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.1984.tb00245.x · Cited by 229
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“Emissions from 1751 to 1949 are computed using statistics of fossil fuel production and trade combined with information on the chemical composition :: of ::: the5 :::: fuels and assumptions on the use and combustion efficiency following the methodology presented in Andres et al. (1999).”
MethodCarbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes 1850-2005
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Olivier, J. G. J., Bouwman, L., Berdowski, J. J. M., Veldt, C., Bloos, J. P. J., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Maas, C. W. M., & Zandveld, P. Y. J. (1999) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/s1462-9011(99)00027-1 · Cited by 160 · cited 2×
“Individual uncertainty estimates can be over 100% :::::::::::::::::: (Olivier et al. (1999) ).”
BackgroundAndres, R. J., Boden, T. A., & Higdon, D. (2014) · Tellus B · doi:10.3402/tellusb.v66.23616 · Cited by 158 · cited 3×
“4 % (using a 95 % confidence interval) is offered as a reasonable combination of data (Andres et al., 2014), in an attempt to simplify the different assessments and to make the best of the qualitative and quantitative knowledge developed since the first study of 1984.”
InfluentialHoughton, R. A. (2008) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 155
Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions
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BackgroundNational contributions to observed global warming
Matthews, H. D., Graham, T. L., Keverian, S., Lamontagne, C., Seto, D., & Smith, T. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014010 · Cited by 139 · cited 8×
“It has been used together with HYDE 3.1 in Matthews et al. (2014) to downscale CDIAC land10 use CO2 emissions to country level.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialContributions of individual countries’ emissions to climate change and their uncertainty
Höhne, N., Blum, H., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Skeie, R. B., Kurosawa, A., Hu, G., Lowe, J. A., Gohar, L., Matthews, B., de Salles, A. C. N., et al. (2010) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9930-6 · Cited by 126 · cited 3×
“The dataset which resulted from this effort proved very useful in the negotiations and to the scientific community (Höhne et al., 2010).”
MethodLevin, I., Naegler, T., Heinz, R., Osusko, D., Cuevas, E., Engel, A., Ilmberger, J., Langenfelds, R. L., Neininger, B., von Rohden, C., et al. (2010) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-10-2655-2010 · Cited by 122
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
Meinshausen, M. A., Jeffery, M. L., Gütschow, J., du Pont, Y. R., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Höhne, N., den Elzen, M. G. J., Oberthür, S., & Meinshausen, N. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2826 · Cited by 121 · cited 1×
“:::::::::: Predecessors ::: of ::: the :::::: dataset, ::::::::: especially ::: the ::::::::: PRIMAP4 :::::::: baseline3 :::: have :::: been ::::: used ::: e.g. ::: for ::: the ::::::: Climate :::::: Action ::::::: Tracker4 :: and ::: in :::::::::::::::::::::: Meinshausen et al. (2015) .”
Self-citationden Elzen, M. G. J., Olivier, J. G. J., Höhne, N., & Janssens‐Maenhout, G. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6 · Cited by 116 · cited 2×
“It was updated in Elzen et al. (2013) with EDGAR ::: data ::::: from ::: the ::::::::: Emissions :::::::: Database ::: for ::::: Global ::::::::::: Atmospheric :::::::: Research : v4.”
MethodEstimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993
Stern, D. I., & Kaufmann, R. K. (1996) · Chemosphere · doi:10.1016/0045-6535(96)00157-9 · Cited by 109 · cited 1×
“We do not use CAIT data, as the results are more transparent when using the original data sources directly.20 C4 CDIAC CH4 This dataset has been described in Stern and Kaufmann (1995, 1996, 1998) and covers global CH4 emissions for a period from 1860 to 1994.”
MethodFeeding the World: An Economic History of Agriculture, 1800-2000
Federico, G. (2005) · Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) · doi:10.1515/9781400837724 · Cited by 106
Greenhouse Development Rights: towards an equitable framework for global climate policy
Baer, P., Fieldman, G., Athanasiou, T., & Kartha, S. (2008) · Cambridge Review of International Affairs · doi:10.1080/09557570802453050 · Cited by 68 · cited 3×
“Other effort sharing proposals use cumulative per capita emissions as a20 metric and thus also need a detailed record of historical emissions by individual countries (Winkler et al. (2011); Baer et al. (2008); Bode (2004)).”
BackgroundMethodA Hundred Year (1890 - 1990) Database for Integrated Environmental Assessments (HYDE, version 1.1)
Goldewijk, K., & Jj, B. (1997) · Cited by 66
Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2011) (V. 2015)
Boden, T. A., Andres, R. J., & Marland, G. H. (2015) · OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) · doi:10.3334/cdiac/00001_v2015 · Cited by 59
Bode, S. (2004) · European Environment · doi:10.1002/eet.359 · Cited by 56 · cited 2×
“Other effort sharing proposals use cumulative per capita emissions as a20 metric and thus also need a detailed record of historical emissions by individual countries (Winkler et al. (2011); Baer et al. (2008); Bode (2004)).”
BackgroundPongratz, J., & Caldeira, K. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034001 · Cited by 42 · cited 4×
“Pre-1850 land use emissions have a small effect on cumulative emissions, and accounting for them would “results in a shift of attribution of global temperature increase from the industrialized countries to less industrialized countries, in particular South Asia and China, by up to 2–3 %” (Pongratz and Caldeira, 2012).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialDecision support for international climate policy – The PRIMAP emission module
Nabel, J. E. M. S., Rogelj, J., Chen, C. M., Markmann, K., Gutzmann, D. J. H., & Meinshausen, M. A. (2011) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.08.004 · Cited by 31 · cited 2×
“The generation of the emissions time series is carried out using the Composite Source Generator (CSG) of the PRIMAP emissions module described in Nabel et al. (2011).”
MethodRogelj, J., Hare, W., Chen, C., & Meinshausen, M. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024002 · Cited by 28 · cited 2×
“We present some options below; a more detailed discussion is available in Rogelj et al. (2011):”
BackgroundAnnual Estimates of Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: 1860-1994
R.K. Kaufman, & D.I. Stern (1998) · Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Datasets · doi:10.3334/cdiac/tge.001 · Cited by 27
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Jos, O., & Greet, J.-M. (2012) · Joint Research Centre (European Commission) · Cited by 13
The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2014)
Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R., et al. (2016) · GFZ Data Services · doi:10.5880/pik.2016.003 · Cited by 3
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
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Research works printed but not linked: 5
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks
Tian, H., Xu, R., Canadell, J. G., Thompson, R. L., Winiwarter, W., Suntharalingam, P., Davidson, E. A., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Janssens-Maenhout, G., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0 · Cited by 1,959
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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020 · Cited by 1,815
“To set up this calibration, we complement RCP emission pathways by historical N2O emissions from PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al., 2016).”
MethodFriedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., et al. (2022) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022 · Cited by 1,285
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Metadata
- Authors
- Gütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Gieseke, R., Gebel, R., Stevens, D., Krapp, M., & Rocha, M.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Gütschow, Johannes
- Jeffery, M. Louise
- Gieseke, Robert
- Gebel, Ronja
- Stevens, David
- Krapp, Mario
- Rocha, Marcia
- Venue
- Earth System Science Data
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2016-11-09
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 571-603
- ISSN
- 1866-3508 (ISSN-L)
- 1866-3516
- OpenAlex
- W2411841442
- Cited by
- 297
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 20.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth system science data (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS_and_LDCs)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Keywords
- sectoral emissions, CO2 emissions, deforestation emissions, potential natural vegetation, climate change attribution
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