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The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series
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Abstract
Abstract. To assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).
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“The results are presented at the global level and for the seven large emitting economies for which national models were available, i.e., Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States, together representing around 65% of global 2010 greenhouse gas emissions18.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
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MethodFriedlingstein, P., Jones, M. W., O'Sullivan, M., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., et al. (2022) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022 · Cited by 1,285
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“As already pointed out by e.g. Gütschow et al. (2016), the heterogeneity of reporting, lack of documentation, differences, ranges of uncertainties, and sector aggregation all factor to make it difficult to compare, compile, and combine the multiple sources of information and to convey to a robust,…”
Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East
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Meinshausen, M. A., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., et al. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017 · Cited by 784
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BackgroundMethodInfluentialRealization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C
Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Mcglade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z., Burdon, R., Cozzi, L., & Hackmann, B. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z · Cited by 603
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Self-citationImplications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
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“There are at least five relevant global N2O emissions inventories available: EDGAR (Crippa et al., 2019, 2021; Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2019), GAINS (Winiwarter et al., 2018), FAOSTAT-N2O (Tubiello, 2018; Tubiello et al., 2013), CEDS (Hoesly et al., 2018; McDuffie et al., 2020; O’Rourke et al., 2021), PRIMAP-hist (Gü…”
BackgroundInfluentialCritical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress
Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Cescatti, A., House, J. I., Nabuurs, G. J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R. A., et al. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6 · Cited by 215
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Self-citationA comparison of estimates of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil carbon sources
Andrew, R. M. (2020) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-12-1437-2020 · Cited by 165
MAgPIE 4 – a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems
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Self-citationThe carbon budget of China: 1980–2021
Xia, X., Ren, P., Wang, X., Liu, D., Chen, X., Li, D., He, B., He, H., Ju, W., Liang, M., et al. (2023) · 中国科学通报：英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.scib.2023.11.016 · Cited by 81
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“The 404–483 GtCO2 range is broadly in line with other studies: For the same period, the IPCC’s AR5 reported (adjusted for 2011–2015 emissions of 186 GtCO2 [67]) budgets of 364 and214 GtCO2 for 50%and66%probability of 1.”
ResultHigh-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide
Schöngart, S., Nicholls, Z., Hoffmann, R., Pelz, S., & Schleussner, C. (2025) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02325-x · Cited by 88
“…of production-side GHG emissions varies strongly by country, ranging from primarily CO 2 -based emissions (for example, Singapore) to almost equal shares of CO 2 and CH 4 /N 2 O (for example, Qatar) and, in low-income countries in particular, primarily CH 4 /N 2 O (for example, Chad) 54 .”
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“1) historical emission time series (Gütschow et al., 2016, 2019).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationFrom Paris to practice: sustainable implementation of renewable energy goals
Baruch‐Mordo, S., Kiesecker, J. M., Kennedy, C. M., Oakleaf, J. R., & Opperman, J. J. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6e0 · Cited by 82
“Furthermore all top ten GHG emitting countries (classifying the EU28 collectively), which accounted for 71% of global emissions in 2014 (Gutschow et al 2016), can meet their NDC targets by developing renewable energy on already converted lands (figure 2(C), supplementary data S2).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialLin, X.-H., Zhang, W., Crippa, M., Peng, S., Han, P., Zeng, N., Yu, L.-J., & Wang, G.-C. (2021) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-13-1073-2021 · Cited by 56
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“Several global CO 2 emission inventories have been developed (Andres et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2013; Asef-Na-jafabady et al., 2014; Gütschow et al., 2016; Hoesly et al., 2018; Oda et al., 2018; Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2021; Friedlingstein et al., 2022; IEA,…”
Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods
Change, I. P. O. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157926.022 · Cited by 106
Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years
Beusch, L., Nauels, A., Gudmundsson, L., Gütschow, J., Schleussner, C., & Seneviratne, S. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6 · Cited by 43
Self-citationAziz, S., & Chowdhury, S. A. (2022) · Environment Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02224-7 · Cited by 71
Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals
Fyson, C. L., & Jeffery, M. L. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001190 · Cited by 65
“…available (16 out of the 62 countries, covering ~40% of net emissions and ~1% of net removals), we use the freely available global data set from the “Emissions – Land use” domain of FAOSTAT (FAO, 2017) and PRIMAP‐hist (Gütschow et al., 2016, 2018; see section S2, Tables S5 and S7, and Figure S2).”
MethodSelf-citationCarbon removals from nature restoration are no substitute for steep emission reductions
Dooley, K., Nicholls, Z., & Meinshausen, M. A. (2022) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002 · Cited by 65
Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Quilcaille, Y., Gudmundsson, L., Schumacher, D. L., Gasser, T., Heede, R., Heri, C., Lejeune, Q., Nath, S., Naveau, P., Thiery, W., et al. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9 · Cited by 74
“118) offset with their preindustrial value from PRIMAP third-party-based estimates 119,120 , and decadal global mean surface temperature change over 2011–2020 from the AR6 (ref.”
Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges
Nauels, A., Gütschow, J., Mengel, M., Meinshausen, M. A., Clark, P. U., & Schleussner, C. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1907461116 · Cited by 60
“We estimate that China is responsible for 83 (44) GtC, the USA for 59 (21) GtC, the EU28 for 41 (13) GtC, India for 19 (11) GtC, and Russia for 18 (7) GtC of CO2 emissions over the IPCC (Paris) periods (25, 26).”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citationClimate justice and the built environment
Klinsky, S., & Mavrogianni, A. (2020) · Buildings and Cities · doi:10.5334/bc.65 · Cited by 62
Kuramochi, T., Nascimento, L., Moisio, M., den Elzen, M. G. J., Forsell, N., van Soest, H. L., Tanguy, P., Gonzales, S., Hans, F., Jeffery, M. L., et al. (2021) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015 · Cited by 59
Self-citationThe role of energy policy on the decoupling processes in the European Union countries
Papież, M., Śmiech, S., & Frodyma, K. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128484 · Cited by 57
Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal
Brecha, R. J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M. A., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C., & Gidden, M. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1 · Cited by 55
Giarola, S., Mittal, S., Marc Vielle, B., Perdana, S., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Bui, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., Kolpakov, A. Y., Sognnæs, I., et al. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146861 · Cited by 55
Assessing U.S. consumers' carbon footprints reveals outsized impact of the top 1%
Starr, J., Nicolson, C. R., Ash, M., Markowitz, E. M., & Moran, D. D. (2022) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107698 · Cited by 51
Nachtigall, D., Lutz, L., Rodríguez, M. C., D’Arcangelo, F. M., Haščič, I., Kruse, T., & Pizarro, R. (2024) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-023-00821-2 · Cited by 51
“The main emission data are taken from PRIMAP’s national historical emissions time series (Gütschow et al. 2016), which offers comprehensive country coverage and a transparent methodology.”
Meinshausen, M., & Nicholls, Z. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5930 · Cited by 48
Arı, İ., & Şentürk, H. (2020) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2020.06.004 · Cited by 54
Nitrogen management during decarbonization
Zhang, X., Sabo, R. D., Rosa, L., Niazi, H., Kyle, P. G., Byun, J. S., Wang, Y., Yan, X., Gu, B., & Davidson, E. A. (2024) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-024-00586-2 · Cited by 52
Cibulka, S., & Giljum, S. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12114734 · Cited by 49
“Material extraction data to calculate the MF are taken from the UN IRP database (UN IRP, 2017), data on GHG emissions stem from 'PRIMAPhist' by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Gütschow et al., 2017).”
MethodGreenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last 3 decades across Africa
Mostefaoui, M., Ciais, P., McGrath, M. J., Peylin, P., Patra, P. K., & Ernst, Y. (2024) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-16-245-2024 · Cited by 50
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Geiges, A., Nauels, A., Yanguas-Parra, P. A., Andrijevic, M., Hare, B., Pfleiderer, P., Schaeffer, M., & Schleussner, C. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-11-697-2020 · Cited by 50
Correcting course: the emission reduction potential of international cooperative initiatives
Lui, S., Kuramochi, T., Smit, S., Roelfsema, M., Hsu, A., Weinfurter, A. J., Chan, S., Hale, T. N., Fekete, H., Lütkehermöller, K., et al. (2020) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1806021 · Cited by 46
The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing
Fu, B., Li, B., Gasser, T., Tao, S., Ciais, P., Piao, S. L., Balkanski, Y. J., Li, W., Yin, T., Han, L., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2018211118 · Cited by 43
“The datasets are all available online and originated from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (25), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (26), the Community Emissions Data System (27), the emission module of the Potsdam Real-time Integrated Model for the probabilistic Assessment of emissio…”
BackgroundWhere is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison
Νίκας, Α., Elia, A., Boitier, B., Koasidis, K., Doukas, H., Cassetti, G., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Miglio, R. D., et al. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148549 · Cited by 47
“…National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for fl uorinated gases (World Meteorological Organization, 2018), and the PRIMAP dataset for N 2 O (Gütschow et al., 2016), while for the four regional models (EU-TIMES, NEMESIS, FORECAST, ALADIN) we harmonise to, or check for consistency against,…”
Extending Near‐Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs
Gütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Schaeffer, M., & Hare, B. (2018) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000781 · Cited by 44
Self-citationRecognizing the Value of Collaboration in Delivering Carbon Dioxide Removal
Fajardy, M., & Dowell, N. M. (2020) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.014 · Cited by 46
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“1) [43] to extrapolate CH4 annual emissions up to 2100 in this section and the equivalent extrapolations for N2O in Section 2.”
BackgroundSSP economic growth projections: Major changes of key drivers in integrated assessment modelling
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Normalisation of Paris agreement NDCs to enhance transparency and ambition
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“5 (Gütschow and Pflüger, 2023; Gütschow et al., 2016), prioritising third-party (TP) data sources over country reported emissions.”
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Impact of circular economy on the long-term allocation structure of primary and secondary lithium
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Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets
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Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
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“47 – 50, using a multiplicative factor that starts at the value required to unify the data in 2015 to the historic value and tapers to 1 in 2050.”
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Electrification pathways for Tanzania: Implications for the economy and the environment
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Metadata
- Authors
- Gütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Gieseke, R., Gebel, R., Stevens, D., Krapp, M., & Rocha, M.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Gütschow, Johannes
- Jeffery, M. Louise
- Gieseke, Robert
- Gebel, Ronja
- Stevens, David
- Krapp, Mario
- Rocha, Marcia
- Venue
- Earth System Science Data
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2016-11-09
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 571-603
- ISSN
- 1866-3508 (ISSN-L)
- 1866-3516
- OpenAlex
- W2411841442
- Cited by
- 297
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 20.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth system science data (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (11_II_093_Global_A_SIDS_and_LDCs)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Keywords
- sectoral emissions, CO2 emissions, deforestation emissions, potential natural vegetation, climate change attribution
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