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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.
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“A new study [9] provided projections of future UV-radiation for cloud-free conditions based on total column ozone and aerosol optical depth data from six CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models following four Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios1 [10], which supersede the RCP scenarios.”
Citations
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BackgroundSelf-citationA 21st-century shift from fossil-fuel to biogenic methane emissions indicated by 13 CH 4
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“…(Rigby et al., 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006, but large uncertainties remain, particularly related to natural wetland…”
BackgroundEnhanced seasonal CO 2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems
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Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs
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BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationSolar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1)Preprint
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BackgroundAn unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11
Montzka, S., Dutton, G., Yu, P., Ray, E., Portmann, R., Daniel, J., Kuijpers, L., Hall, B., Mondeel, D., Siso, C., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2 · Cited by 360 · cited 13×
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BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationRole of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth
Rigby, M., Montzka, S., Prinn, R. G., White, J. W. C., Young, D., O'Doherty, S., Lunt, M., Ganesan, A., Manning, A. J., Simmonds, P., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616426114 · Cited by 355 · cited 1×
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BackgroundSelf-citationAtmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE–GAGE data
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MethodSelf-citationAerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6
Collins, W., Lamarque, J., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Eyring, V., Hegglin, M., Maycock, A., Myhre, G., Prather, M., Shindell, D., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017 · Cited by 319 · cited 7×
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“The Brewer– Dobson circulation is assumed to increase by 15 % per degree of warming beyond 1980, derived from Butchart and Scaife’s finding of an approximately 3 % increase per decade (Butchart and Scaife, 2001) and assuming a 0.2 C warming per decade (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). Calibrating our gas cycle models to th…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialThe PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series
Gütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Gieseke, R., Gebel, R., Stevens, D., Krapp, M., & Rocha, M. (2016) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-8-571-2016 · Cited by 297 · cited 2×
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MethodWorden, J. R., Bloom, A. A., Pandey, S., Jiang, Z., Worden, H. M., Walker, T., Houweling, S., & Röckmann, T. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02246-0 · Cited by 261 · cited 2×
“…changes in natural and anthropogenic sources and OH-related sinks are involved (Rigby et al., 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006,…”
BackgroundUnderstanding rapid adjustments to diverse forcing agents
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Soden, B. J., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., et al. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079826 · Cited by 238
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“…in terms of radiative forcing, there is a wide range of other forcers, including anthropogenic aerosols (Hoesly et al., 2018), land use patterns, aerosol optical properties (Stevens et al., 2017), and natural forcers like solar (Matthes et al., 2017) and volcanic effects (Toohey et al., 2016).”
BackgroundSelf-citationCommitted sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
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“5 C of warming could come with multi-metre sea level rise by 2300 (Mengel et al., 2018) and the likely demise of coral reefs (Frieler et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationIncrease in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations
Rigby, M., Park, S., Saito, T., Western, L., Redington, A., Fang, X., Henne, S., Manning, A., Prinn, R. G., Dutton, G., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4 · Cited by 220 · cited 5×
“…it was also concluded that the additional CFC-11 emissions – roughly a 25 % increase since 2012 – originate in part from the eastern Asian region (Rigby et al., 2019; Montzka et al., 2018), and an updated study has identified that about half of the global increase can be attributed to two…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming
von Deimling, T. S., Meinshausen, M. A., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., & Brovkin, V. A. (2012) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-9-649-2012 · Cited by 203 · cited 2×
“…used for this study (version 7.0) is calibrated to closely represent C4MIP carbon cycle responses and includes a permafrost module (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2012) and updated radiative forcing and non-CO2 gas cycle parameterizations (in particular for CH4 and N2O) that represent recent…”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationvon Deimling, T. S., Grosse, G., Strauß, J., Schirrmeister, L., Morgenstern, A., Schaphoff, S., Meinshausen, M. A., & Boike, J. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 · Cited by 196
Self-citationEfficiency of short-lived halogens at influencing climate through depletion of stratospheric ozone
Hossaini, R., Chipperfield, M., Montzka, S., Rap, A., Dhomse, S., & Feng, W. (2015) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2363 · Cited by 187 · cited 1×
“The similarly short-lived methylene chloride (CH2Cl2) also had almost stagnant atmospheric concentrations around the year 2000, but high growth has been observed in subsequent years, almost doubling atmospheric global-average concentrations from around 20 to 40 ppt by 2017 (Hossaini et al., 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMeinshausen, M. A., Wigley, T. M. L., & Raper, S. C. B. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011 · Cited by 181 · cited 9×
“11c), and that difference is even more pronounced by 2300 due to the different extension principles followed for RCP extensions (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and those for SSPs (Sect.”
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“mop”) (Cunnold et al., 2002) & NOAA ESRL monthly station data (Dlugokencky et al., 2015a); Version 2017-0728; Calculated based on observational data source as described in Meinshausen et al. (2017). Mean over 1985–2013 period.”
MethodSelf-citationVelders, G., Fahey, D., Daniel, J., Andersen, S., & Mcfarland, M. (2015) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.071 · Cited by 161 · cited 6×
“For the emissions of fluorinated gases that are listed in the Kyoto Protocol and considered here (PFCs, HFCs, and SF6), namely C2F6, CF4, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-227ea, HFC-23, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee, and SF6, MAGICC7 takes the global and aggregated SSP emissions of the gas baskets as inputs, as provided by…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationDisentangling the effects of CO 2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation
Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M. A., Shindell, D. T., Hare, B., Klimont, Z., Velders, G. J. M., Amann, M. C., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1415631111 · Cited by 152
Self-citationDirect human influence on atmospheric CO2 seasonality from increased cropland productivity
Gray, J., Frolking, S., Kort, E. A., Ray, D. K., Kucharik, C. J., Ramankutty, N., & Friedl, M. A. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13957 · Cited by 146
Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., & Timmreck, C. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016 · Cited by 132 · cited 1×
“…in terms of radiative forcing, there is a wide range of other forcers, including anthropogenic aerosols (Hoesly et al., 2018), land use patterns, aerosol optical properties (Stevens et al., 2017), and natural forcers like solar (Matthes et al., 2017) and volcanic effects (Toohey et al., 2016).”
BackgroundRapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China
Fang, X., Park, S., Saito, T., Tunnicliffe, R., Ganesan, A., Rigby, M., Li, S.-L., Yokouchi, Y., Fraser, P., Harth, C., et al. (2018) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2 · Cited by 126
Self-citationRay, E., Moore, F., Elkins, J. W., Rosenlof, K., Laube, J., Röckmann, T., Marsh, D., & Andrews, A. (2017) · doi:10.1002/2016jd026198 · Cited by 117
Perverse incentives under the CDM: an evaluation of HFC-23 destruction projects
Schneider, L. (2011) · doi:10.3763/cpol.2010.0096 · Cited by 115 · cited 4×
“Here, we include a representation of permafrost feedbacks based on the MAGICC permafrost (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2012), leading to additional cumulative CO2 emissions of 25 to 88 GtC by 2100, 42 to 378 GtC by 2200, and 51 to 542 GtC by 2300 for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) scenario, respectivel…”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialMontzka, S., Mcfarland, M., Andersen, S., Miller, B., Fahey, D., Hall, B., Hu, L., Siso, C., & Elkins, J. (2015) · Journal of Physical Chemistry A · doi:10.1021/jp5097376 · Cited by 113 · cited 3×
“This study’s northern hemispheric averages (orange lines), southern hemispheric averages (blue lines), and global averages (black lines) are shown in comparison with recent measurements of the NOAA and/or AGAGE networks (grey dots), the global averages derived by Montzka et al. (2018), and the projections by Velders a…”
ResultInfluentialSelf-citationThe World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol
Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., Hurwitz, M., O'Connor, F., Bushell, A., Johnson, C. E., & Pyle, J. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl034590 · Cited by 111 · cited 1×
“For example, some of the scenarios could include ODS emission futures that reflect lower or even noncompliance with the Montreal Protocol to allow studies on the “world avoided” (Morgenstern et al., 2008; Velders et al., 2007).”
BackgroundBeckley, B., Zelensky, N., Holmes, S., Lemoine, F., Ray, R., Mitchum, G., Desai, S., & Brown, S. (2010) · Marine Geodesy · doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491029 · Cited by 108
Impact of short-lived non-CO 2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. A., Schaeffer, M., Knutti, R., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 · Cited by 98 · cited 1×
“(i) Firstly, discussions about the benefit of the mitigation of short-lived forcers often accounts for CH4 as a short-lived forcer, which usually contributes most of the climate benefits of any shortlived forcer mitigation strategy (Rogelj et al., 2015, 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationVelders, G. J. M., & Daniel, J. S. (2014) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014 · Cited by 85 · cited 15×
“With the 2016 Kigali Amendment, however, a select number of HFCs have been included in the Montreal Protocol and GWPweighted emissions of these particular HFCs will have to be phased-down globally in coming decades.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationThe SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500Preprint
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Lewis, J., Gidden, M., Vogel, E., Freund, M. B., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., et al. (2019) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-222 · Cited by 77 · cited 3×
“, 2019; Montzka et al., 2018), and an updated study has identified that about half of the global increase can be attributed to two provinces in eastern China (Rigby et al., 2019). Although less pronounced, CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations have also not declined as expected since 2013, although for neither of these ga…”
ResultInfluentialSelf-citationPerverse effects of carbon markets on HFC-23 and SF6 abatement projects in Russia
Schneider, L., & Kollmuss, A. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2772 · Cited by 74 · cited 1×
“It has been shown that so-called “perverse incentives” likely resulted in additional production – in order to broaden the magnitude of claimable abatement credits (Schneider and Kollmuss, 2015).”
BackgroundVollmer, M., Young, D., Trudinger, C., Mühle, J., Henne, S., Rigby, M., Park, S., Li, S.-L., Guillevic, M., Mitrevski, B., et al. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-18-979-2018 · Cited by 51
Self-citationWelp, L. R., Patra, P. K., Rödenbeck, C., Nemani, R. R., Bi, J., Piper, S. C., & Keeling, R. F. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-9047-2016 · Cited by 45 · cited 3×
“, 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006, but large uncertainties remain, particularly related to natural wetland and inland water sources (Saunois et al.,…”
BackgroundInfluentialGidden, M., Fujimori, S., van den Berg, M., Klein, D., Smith, S. J., van Vuuren, D., & Riahi, K. (2018) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002 · Cited by 44 · cited 2×
“Land-use-related CH4 and fossil and industrial CO2 and CH4 emissions were already harmonized with historical emissions and also regionally available (Gidden et al., 2019, 2018). N2O emissions were only available as a global total from the SSP database based on PRIMAP (Gütschow et al., 2016), which is why we assume to…”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 11
- Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Large, W. G., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Lipscomb, W. H., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N., Marsh, D. R., Neale, R. B., Rasch, P., Vavrus, S., Vertenstein, M., Bader, D., Collins, W. D., Hack, J. J., Kiehl, J., and Marshall, S.: The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1339–1360, 10.1175/bams-d-12-00121.1, 2013. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-REMIND-MAGPIE-ssp534-over-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9867, 2018a. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-REMIND-MAGPIE-ssp585-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9868, 2018b. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-MESSAGE-GLOBIOM-ssp245-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9866, 2018c. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-GCAM4-ssp434-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9862, 2018d. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-AIM-ssp370-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9861, 2018e. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-AIM-ssp370-lowNTCF-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9824, 2018f. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-IMAGE-ssp119-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9864, 2018g. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-IMAGE-ssp126-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9865, 2018h. · DOI
- Meinshausen, M. and Nicholls, Z. R. J.: UoM-GCAM4-ssp460-1-2-1 GHG concentrations, Version 20181127, Earth System Grid Federation, 10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.9863, 2018i. · DOI
- WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 572 pp. 2006.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
Rennert, K., Errickson, F., Prest, B. C., Rennels, L., Newell, R. G., Pizer, W., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R., Parthum, B., et al. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9 · Cited by 1,067
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A., Elliott, J., Balkovič, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I. T., Folberth, C., Franke, J., et al. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y · Cited by 903
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E. M., Fyfe, J. C., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J. A., O’Neill, B. C., Sanderson, B. M., et al. (2021) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021 · Cited by 939
“11 in Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Empa (CH)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Meinshausen, Malte
- Gidden, Matthew J.
- Vogel, Elisabeth
- Beyerle, Urs
- Gessner, Claudia
- Nauels, Alexander
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Krummel, Paul B.
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Montzka, Stephen A.
- Rayner, Peter J.
- Reimann, Stefan
- Smith, Steven J.
- Velders, Guus J. M.
- Vollmer, Martin K.
- Wang, Ray H. J.
- ORCID
- Meinshausen, Malte
- Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
- Lewis, Jared
- Gidden, Matthew J.
- Vogel, Elisabeth
- Freund, Mandy
- Beyerle, Urs
- Gessner, Claudia
- Nauels, Alexander
- Bauer, Nico
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Daniel, John S.
- John, Andrew
- Krummel, Paul B.
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Montzka, Stephen A.
- Rayner, Peter J.
- Reimann, Stefan
- Smith, Steven J.
- van den Berg, Marten
- Velders, Guus J. M.
- Vollmer, Martin K.
- Wang, Ray H. J.
- Venue
- Geoscientific Model Development
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-08-13
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 3571-3605
- ISSN
- 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
- 1991-9603
- OpenAlex
- W3048501727
- Cited by
- 1,815
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
- FWCI
- 66.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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