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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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Meinshausen, Malte, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Lewis, Jared, Gidden, Matthew J., Vogel, Elisabeth, Freund, Mandy, Beyerle, Urs, Gessner, Claudia, Nauels, Alexander, Bauer, Nico, Canadell, Josep G., Daniel, John S., John, Andrew, Krummel, Paul B., Luderer, Gunnar, Meinshausen, Nicolai, Montzka, Stephen A., Rayner, Peter J., Reimann, Stefan, Smith, Steven J., van den Berg, Marten, Velders, Guus J. M., Vollmer, Martin K., Wang, Ray H. J.·2020·Geoscientific Model Development

DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020

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Abstract

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.

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“However, no complex climate model results from CMIP5 or CMIP6 are available beyond 2300.”
Background
Temporary nature-based carbon removal can lower peak warming in a well-below 2 °C scenario
Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Dickau, M., MacIsaac, A., Mathesius, S., Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., & Luers, A. L. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z · Cited by 121
“…succeed in lowering global radiative forcing to 1.9 W/m 2 at the year 2100; this scenario represents a highly ambitious mitigation scenario with peak CO 2 emissions at the year 2020 that decrease to net-zero at the year 2056 and then become net-negative throughout the remainder of the century 53 .”
BackgroundInfluential
Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing
Kug, J., Oh, J., An, S., Yeh, S., Min, S.-K., Son, S., Kam, J., Ham, Y., & Shin, J.-W. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01211-6 · Cited by 107
Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002871 · Cited by 104
“It is attributable to the interplay of both higher ERFs by 2100 and higher climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models (Meehl et al., 2020; Meinshausen et al., 2020; Nicholls et al., 2020; Seferian et al., 2020).”
Influential
Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models
Zanis, P., Akritidis, D., Turnock, S., Naik, V., Szopa, S., Georgoulias, A., Bauer, S., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L., Keeble, J., et al. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34 · Cited by 102
Drought thresholds that impact vegetation reveal the divergent responses of vegetation growth to drought across China
Sun, M., Li, X., Xu, H., Wang, K., Anniwaer, N., & Hong, S. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16998 · Cited by 105
“5 scenario corresponds to a very high level of carbon emissions (Cook et al., 2020 ; Meinshausen et al., 2020 ; O'Neill et al., 2016).”
Background
The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach: methodology, software package PGW4ERA5 v1.1, validation, and sensitivity analyses
Brogli, R., Heim, C., Mensch, J., Sørland, S. L., & Schär, C. (2023) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023 · Cited by 122
A climate risk index for marine life
Boyce, D. G., Tittensor, D. P., Garilao, C., Henson, S., Kaschner, K., Kesner‐Reyes, K., Pigot, A. L., Reyes, R. B., Reygondeau, G., Schleit, K. E., et al. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01437-y · Cited by 153
Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Martine, M., Mills, M., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., et al. (2021) · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-133 · Cited by 98
“3c), and the underlying difference in CO2 concentration, common to all models, as prescribed for the SSP scenarios in Meinshausen et al. (2020) (Fig.”
Background
Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world
Vousdoukas, M. I., Athanasiou, P., Giardino, A., Mentaschi, L., Stocchino, A., Kopp, R. E., Menéndez, P., Beck, M. W., Ranasinghe, R., & Feyen, L. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5 · Cited by 121
“…until mid-century, when they start to be reduced without reaching net-zero; high emissions (SSP3–7.0), with emissions rising constantly to almost double from current levels by the end of the century; and a high fossil-fuel development world throughout the twenty-first century (SSP5–8.5) 44 .”
Influential
Desert ecosystems in China: Past, present, and future
Wang, X., Geng, X., Liu, B., Cai, D., Li, D.-F., Xiao, F., Zhu, B.-Q., Hua, T., Lu, R.-J., & Liu, F. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104206 · Cited by 94
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Lachs, L., Donner, S., Mumby, P., Bythell, J., Humanes, A., East, H., & Guest, J. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6 · Cited by 88
An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives
Schleussner, C., Ganti, G., Rogelj, J., & Gidden, M. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w · Cited by 88
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Using urban building energy modeling to quantify the energy performance of residential buildings under climate change
Deng, Z., Javanroodi, K., Nik, V., & Chen, Y.-X. (2023) · Building Simulation · doi:10.1007/s12273-023-1032-2 · Cited by 87
Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming
Martinez‐Villalobos, C., Fu, D., Loikith, P. C., & Neelin, J. D. (2025) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w · Cited by 100
“Despite using the SSP5–8.5 pathway, known as the most sensitive greenhouse scenario, there is little divergence between scenarios for the timespan of interest 58 .”
Influential
Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
Brunner, L., & Aiko Voigt, A. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46349-x · Cited by 87
European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios
Farooq, Z., Sjödin, H., Semenza, J., Tozan, Y., Sewe, M. O., Wallin, J., & Rocklöv, J. (2023) · One Health · doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100509 · Cited by 86
Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
Jenkins, S., Smith, C., Allen, M., & Grainger, R. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2 · Cited by 97
How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?
McKinnon, K. A., & Simpson, I. R. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl100380 · Cited by 83
Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100
Jiang, L., Dunne, J. P. P., Carter, B. R., Tjiputra, J. F., Terhaar, J., Sharp, J. D., Olsen, A. S., Alin, S. R., Bakker, D. C. E., Feely, R. A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2022ms003563 · Cited by 142
“5 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
Predictive mapping of two endemic oak tree species under climate change scenarios in a semiarid region: Range overlap and implications for conservation
Hama, A. A., & Khwarahm, N. R. (2022) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101930 · Cited by 83
A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes
Fabiano, F., Meccia, V., Davini, P., Ghinassi, P., & Corti, S. (2020) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-2020-37-supplement · Cited by 83
“SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 are intermediate scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluential
Reactive halogens increase the global methane lifetime and radiative forcing in the 21st century
Li, Q.-Y., Fernández, R., Hossaini, R., Iglesias-Suarez, F., Cuevas, C., Apel, E., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J., & Saiz-Lopez, A. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30456-8 · Cited by 82
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., & Tjiputra, J. F. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 · Cited by 108
Population exposure to compound extreme events in India under different emission and population scenarios
Das, J., Manikanta, V., & Umamahesh, N. V. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150424 · Cited by 88
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
Möller, T., Högner, A., Schleussner, C., Bien, S., Kitzmann, N. H., Lamboll, R., Rogelj, J., Donges, J. F., Rockström, J., & Wunderling, N. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0 · Cited by 77
“Shaded areas represent the 95% con ﬁ dence interval. implicitly via the assumptions of some of the scenarios used in this study (for instance SSP1 and SSP5 58,59 ).”
Method
Navigating the impact of climate change in India: a perspective on climate action (SDG13) and sustainable cities and communities (SDG11)
Hussain, S., Hussain, E., Saxena, P., Sharma, A., Thathola, P., & Sonwani, S. (2024) · Frontiers in Sustainable Cities · doi:10.3389/frsc.2023.1308684 · Cited by 112
EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6
van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Sager, P. L., O’Donnell, D., Makkonen, R., Ageitos, M. G., Döscher, R., Fladrich, U., von Hardenberg, J., Keskinen, J., et al. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021 · Cited by 184
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections
Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. R., Dorheim, K., Gasser, T., Gieseke, R., Hope, A., Leach, N., McBride, L., et al. (2021) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001900 · Cited by 79
Self-citation
EC-Earth3-AerChem, a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6
van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Sager, P. L., O'Donnell, D., Makkonen, R., Ageitos, M. G., Döscher, R., Fladrich, U., von Hardenberg, J., Keskinen, J., et al. (2020) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-413 · Cited by 78
An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment
Dunne, J. P. P., Hewitt, H. T., Arblaster, J. M., Bonou, F., Boucher, O., Cavazos, T., Dingley, B., Durack, P. J., Haßler, B., Juckes, M. N., et al. (2025) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025 · Cited by 103
“2 et al., 2017; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
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Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Álvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C., Bernales, J., et al. (2024) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004561 · Cited by 75
Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America
Costoya, X., deCastro, M., Carvalho, D., & Gómez-Gesteira, M. (2022) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.113101 · Cited by 91
Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections
Fallah, B., Didovets, I., Rostami, M., & Hamidi, M. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8519 · Cited by 107
“Sustain-able future climate scenarios limit global warming under 2 C at the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Background
A global atlas of marine antibiotic resistance genes and their expression.
Xu, N., Qiu, D., Zhang, Z.-Y., Wang, Y., Chen, B.-A., Zhang, Q., Wang, T., Hong, W., Zhou, N., Peñuelas, J., et al. (2023) · Water Research · doi:10.1016/j.watres.2023.120488 · Cited by 74
The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output
Olonscheck, D., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Milinski, S., Beobide‐Arsuaga, G., Baehr, J., Fröb, F., Ilyina, T., Kadow, C., Krieger, D., Li, H., et al. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2023ms003790 · Cited by 105
“The globally integrated CO 2 flux into the ocean is larger in the mid and high-end SSP than in the respective RCP scenarios (Figure 1e), likely caused by the stronger prescribed atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the SSP than respective RCP scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2011, 2020).”
Background
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Koven, C. D., Arora, V. K., Cadule, P., Fisher, R. A., JONES, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., Lewis, J., Lindsay, K., Mathesius, S., Meinshausen, M. A., et al. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-885-2022 · Cited by 110
“All models were forced with specified atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (not greenhouse gas emissions) (Meinshausen et al., 2020), and land use change forcings (Ma et al.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
The CESM2 Single-Forcing Large Ensemble and Comparison to CESM1: Implications for Experimental Design
Simpson, I. R., Rosenbloom, N. A., Danabasoglu, G., Deser, C., Yeager, S. G., McCluskey, C. S., Yamaguchi, R., Lamarque, J., Tilmes, S., Mills, M. J., et al. (2023) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0666.1 · Cited by 81
Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes
Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Lee, W. R., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., & MacMartin, D. G. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-663-2023 · Cited by 69
Global Burden of Disease from Environmental Factors
Clark, S. N., Anenberg, S. C., & Brauer, M. D. (2024) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071823-105338 · Cited by 78
“In this context, a reference temperature scenario is compared against a more optimistic scenario of emissions reductions based on RCPs and SSPs.”
Influential
Atmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling
Atwood, T. B., Romanou, A., DeVries, T., Lerner, P. E., Mayorga, J. S., Bradley, D., Cabral, R. B., Schmidt, G. A., & Sala, E. (2024) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1125137 · Cited by 90
“5, a mid-range shared socioeconomic pathway scenario, of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O ’ Neill et al., 2016; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Future projection of precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on CMIP6
Majdi, F., Hosseini, S. A., Karbalaee, A., Kaseri, M., & Marjanian, S. (2022) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03916-2 · Cited by 69
Methane removal and the proportional reductions in surface temperature and ozone
Abernethy, S., O’Connor, F. M., JONES, C. D., & Jackson, R. B. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0104 · Cited by 87
“6 (‘Sustainability’, a low-emissions scenario) [31].”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
Chen, Z., Wang, W., Forzieri, G., & Cescatti, A. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45957-x · Cited by 79
“5 scenario because C4MIP simulations are available only for the highest emission trajectory (CO 2 concentration is projected to reach 1135ppm in 2100 64 ).”
Background
The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Sanderson, B. M., Booth, B. B. B., Dunne, J. P. P., Eyring, V., Fisher, R. A., Friedlingstein, P., Gidden, M., Hajima, T., JONES, C. D., Jones, C., et al. (2024) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024 · Cited by 95
“Emissions-driven simulations to date in CMIP have been highly idealized (e.g., ZECMIP; Jones et al., 2019). emissions-driven focus allows coupled system processes to be represented in policy-relevant scenarios, but this requires a reﬁnement in the way that scenarios have traditionally been framed and categorized (O’Ne…”
InfluentialSelf-citation
Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals
Brunner, C., Hausfather, Z., & Knutti, R. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01808-7 · Cited by 86
“See Meinshausen et al. 37 for more details about the emissions rates and the underlying methodology and assumptions.”
Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity
Smith, C. J., Harris, G., Palmer, M., Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., Golaz, J., Ringer, M., Storelvmo, T., et al. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd033622 · Cited by 67
CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile
Salazar, Á., Thatcher, M., Goubanova, K., Bernal, P. A., Gutiérrez, J. R., & Squeo, F. A. (2023) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-023-07034-9 · Cited by 66
“It presents a new framework of socioeconomic scenarios, named Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that are combined with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of CMIP5 (Eyring et al. 2016; Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Assessment of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (Ssp) Climate Scenarios and its Impacts on the Greater Accra Region
Siabi, E. K., Awafo, E., Kabo-bah, A., Derkyi, N., Akpoti, K., Mortey, E., & Yazdanie, M. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4225254 · Cited by 66
Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia
Furian, W., Maussion, F., & Schneider, C. (2022) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2022.821798 · Cited by 82
“We use for every GCM different climate scenarios, each following a different development path of human society on the basis of the SSP scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Method
Atmospheric methane underestimated in future climate projections
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., & Brovkin, V. A. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1814 · Cited by 93
Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation
Charlesworth, E. J., Plöger, F., Birner, T., Baikhadzhaev, R., Ábalos, M., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Dennison, F. W., Jöckel, P., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39559-2 · Cited by 82
Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation
Brazzola, N., Patt, A., & Wohland, J. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01404-7 · Cited by 92
High-resolution CMIP6 climate projections for Ethiopia using the gridded statistical downscaling method
Rettie, F. M., Gayler, S., Weber, T. K. D., Tesfaye, K., & Streck, T. (2023) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02337-2 · Cited by 77
Ecological niche modelling of a critically endangered species Commiphora wightii (Arn.) Bhandari using bioclimatic and non-bioclimatic variables
Mathur, M., Mathur, P., & Purohit, H. (2023) · Ecological Processes · doi:10.1186/s13717-023-00423-2 · Cited by 63
Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models
Terhaar, J., Frölicher, T. L., & Joos, F. (2022) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022 · Cited by 93
Climate change knowledge, attitude and perception of undergraduate students in Ghana
Ofori, B. Y., Ameade, E. P. K., Ohemeng, F., Musah, Y., Quartey, J. K., & Owusu, E. H. (2023) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000215 · Cited by 88
“…by natural events such as the Earth’s orbit, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids and asteroids reaching the Earth’s surface [4, 5], accumulating evidence suggests that 21 st century climate change is caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere due to human activities [6].”
Background
On the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumptions: A Meta-Analysis
Campagna, L., & Fiorito, F. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15010354 · Cited by 62
Compatible Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in the CMIP6 Earth System Models’ Historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Experiments of the Twenty-First Century
Liddicoat, S., Wiltshire, A., Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Lawrence, D., Pongratz, J., Schwinger, J., et al. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0991.1 · Cited by 61
“For ScenarioMIP, the emissions of different greenhouse gases from the IAMs were converted into their respective concentrations using version 7.0 of MAGICC, a carbon cycle–climate model of intermediate complexity (Meinshausen et al. 2020, 2011).”
MethodInfluential
Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future
Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Haywood, J., Boucher, O., Lawrence, M., Irvine, P., Niemeier, U., Xia, L., et al. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023 · Cited by 60

Authors: Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
Affiliations: The University of Melbourne (AU)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
ETH Zurich (CH)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
Empa (CH)
Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
Utrecht University (NL)
Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author: Meinshausen, Malte
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Canadell, Josep G.
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
ORCID: Meinshausen, Malte
Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
Lewis, Jared
Gidden, Matthew J.
Vogel, Elisabeth
Freund, Mandy
Beyerle, Urs
Gessner, Claudia
Nauels, Alexander
Bauer, Nico
Canadell, Josep G.
Daniel, John S.
John, Andrew
Krummel, Paul B.
Luderer, Gunnar
Montzka, Stephen A.
Rayner, Peter J.
Reimann, Stefan
Smith, Steven J.
van den Berg, Marten
Velders, Guus J. M.
Vollmer, Martin K.
Wang, Ray H. J.
Venue: Geoscientific Model Development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Published: 2020-08-13
Volume: 13
Issue: 8
Pages: 3571-3605
ISSN: 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
1991-9603
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
OpenAlex: W3048501727
Cited by: 1,815
References: 78
Citations by year: 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33
FWCI: 66.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RENATE (cc-by)
ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
Funders: Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Abstract

Overview

Integrity signals

Verification

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Citations

Cites

Cited by

Metadata

Record

About these checks