Does extreme political ideology predict conspiracy beliefs, economic evaluations and political trust? Evidence from Sweden

“…psychology have shown that extreme conservative positions, for example, can come as a consequence of anxieties associated with uncertainties and fears and enforced by dogmatic political comprehensions, authoritarian tendencies and intolerance towards dissenting individuals (Jost et al., 2003).”

“Ideologies aim at describing and interpreting the functioning of society by relying on assertions or assumptions about “human nature, historical events, present realities, and future possibilities” (Jost et al., 2009, p. 309).”

“Most studies on the topic examine and test the basic assumptions of the theory – whether macroeconomic conditions are related to electoral preferences (Downs, 1957; Fiorina, 1981; Kinder & Kiewiet, 1981; Lewis-Beck, 1988).”

“Political cynicism and distrust in institutions, which typically increase in times of economic crises, are frequently associated with the better electoral performance of extremist parties (Miller, 1974; Rydgren, 2005).”

“Datasets collected online generally suffer from problems of under-coverage and self-selection that can potentially bias estimates (Bethlehem, 2010; Hooghe & Teepe, 2007).”

“…benefit is that computerized self-administration reduces measurement error relative to other modes of data collection, increasing both the level of reporting and the report accuracy of opinions and attitudes compared to more “conventional” surveys (Kreuter et al., 2008; Sakshaug et al., 2010).”

“…experimental conditions that induce a lack of control or uncertainty increase belief in conspiracies as compared to other conditions (Newheiser, Farias, & Tausch, 2011; Sullivan, Landau, & Rothschild, 2010; van Prooijen & Acker, 2015; van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013; Whitson & Galinsky, 2008).”

“Most of them examine and test the basic assumptions of the theory that macroeconomic conditions predict electoral preferences (e.g. Downs, 1957; Duch & Stevenson, 2008; Fiorina, 1981; Kinder & Kiewiet, 1979; Lewis-Beck, 1988).”

“Such a conviction functions as an instrument to cope with feelings of uncertainty and fear by constructing a more comprehensible and predictable understanding of the world (Neuberg & Newsom, 1993).”

“Political Trust and Extreme Political Ideology Interest in trust as a concept has produced voluminous literature in the social sciences and philosophy throughout the 1990s (Hardin, 1996; Misztal, 1996; Warren, 1999).”

“The findings of Feldman and Johnston (2014) show a differentiation between the cultural and economic dimension of political ideology, which is crucial for understanding ideology in modern societies.”

“Political cynicism and distrust in institutions, which typically increase in times of economic crises, are frequently associated with the better electoral performance of extremist parties (Miller, 1974; Rydgren, 2005).”

“Prominent examples of contemporary conspiracy beliefs pertain to issues such as climate change (Jolley & Douglas, 2014), the financial crisis and the common belief about the corrupt and nocuous nature of decision-makers, among others.”

“745 somewhat surprising, given the evidence that distrust predicts conspiracy belief (see Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999).”

“Although there is a wide range of possible conspiracy theories, individuals who believe in one conspiracy theory are more likely to believe in other conspiracy theories (Lewandowsky, Oberauer, & Gignac, 2013; Swami et al., 2011, 2013).”

“While it has been acknowledged that extreme ideological left and right positions correspond with lower trust levels (Inglehart, 1987), whether rightwing or left-wing individuals are “more distrustful varies from one country to another” (Newton, 1999, p. 181).”

“Even though there are substantial differences between these ideologies, political psychologists have noted that extreme left- and right-wing ideologies may share a similar underlying psychological pattern (Greenberg & Jonas, 2003).”

“Throughout the 20th century, radical political ideologies served as the propeller of tragic events that have left a deep mark in human history (Baumeister, 1997; Midlarsky, 2011).”

“However, a large volume of work suggests that such a simplified conceptualization could easily overlook underlying aspects of ideological heterogeneity (Jost et al., 2009; Treier & Hillygus, 2009).”

“Moreover, political trust affects citizen’s propensity to vote for opposition candidates (Hetherington, 1999).”

“Many studies examining economic voting based on election surveys use four different dimensions: personal versus collective (usually labeled “ego-tropic” versus “socio-tropic”); retrospective versus prospective; simple versus mediated and cognitive versus affective (Lewis-Beck, 1986, p. 317).”

“Political ideology constitutes a common belief and value system expressed in the way individuals view and react to their social environment (Jost et al., 2009; Knight, 2006).”

“…the topic (e.g. Hofstadter, 1966) have already implied that conspiracy beliefs are intended to provide causal explanations for complex and distressing social events, an observation that was reflected upon theoretically by numerous authors (e.g., Bale, 2007; Clarke, 2002; Douglas et al., in press).”

“After all, research suggests that distressing societal circumstances increases the appeal of extremist political movements (Midlarsky, 2011), and that feelings of threat increase people’s support for radical leaders (Hogg et al., 2010).”

“Somewhat paradoxically, uncertainty in one domain of life results in an increase of certainty, reflected in extreme convictions, in other (frequently political) domains (McGregor, 2006; McGregor & Marigold, 2003).”

“…the topic (e.g. Hofstadter, 1966) have already implied that conspiracy beliefs are intended to provide causal explanations for complex and distressing social events, an observation that was reflected upon theoretically by numerous authors (e.g., Bale, 2007; Clarke, 2002; Douglas et al., in press).”

“…& Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for their own evaluation of the economy and analyze how it relates to government support (Duch & Stevenson, 2008; Feldman, 1984; Fiorina, 1981; Kiewiet & Rivers, 1984; Kinder & Kiewiet, 1979; Lewis-Beck, 1988).”

“Moreover, online survey questions are answered more accurately since they are answered in private, and thus, free of peer pressure introduced by interviewers (Olson, 2006).”

“However, further empirical research has shown that some of these characteristics may need to be attributed to both leftand right-wing extreme ideological rigidity, as for instance suggested by findings that in the former Soviet Union, authoritarian tendencies are associated with increase in left-wing orientation (McFa…”

“Hardin (2002) notes that extremists are “epistemologically crippled”, in the sense that the main sources of information about political issues they trust, come from their own milieu, whereas outside sources that offer more nuanced perspective tend to be ignored.”

“We define conspiracy beliefs as suspicions that a group of individuals are involved in secret agreement, attempting to achieve hidden goals which are generally regarded as unlawful or malevolent (Swami, Chamorro-Premuzic, & Furnham, 2010; Zonis & Joseph, 1994).”

“In terms of behavior, political trust plays a decisive role in citizen’s adherence to governmental demands (Levi, 1997; Scholz & Lubell, 1998), which in turn fosters incumbent legitimacy.”

“Although there is a wide range of possible conspiracy theories, individuals who believe in one conspiracy theory are more likely to believe in other conspiracy theories (Lewandowsky, Oberauer, & Gignac, 2013; Swami et al., 2011, 2013).”

“Somewhat paradoxically, uncertainty in one domain of life results in an increase of certainty, reflected in extreme convictions, in other (frequently political) domains (McGregor, 2006; McGregor & Marigold, 2003).”

“…benefit is that computerized self-administration reduces measurement error relative to other modes of data collection, increasing both the level of reporting and the report accuracy of opinions and attitudes compared to more “conventional” surveys (Kreuter et al., 2008; Sakshaug et al., 2010).”

“While many scholars use objective economic indicators to assess whether the bad shape of the economy results in a decline of electoral support for incumbents (e.g. Carlsen, 2000; Clarke et al., 2000; Harper, 2000; Nannestad & Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for their own…”

“…use objective economic indicators to assess whether the bad shape of the economy results in a decline of electoral support for incumbents (e.g. Carlsen, 2000; Clarke et al., 2000; Harper, 2000; Nannestad & Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for…”

“Throughout the 20th century, radical political ideologies served as the propeller of tragic events that have left a deep mark in human history (Baumeister, 1997; Midlarsky, 2011).”

“, 2000; Harper, 2000; Nannestad & Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for their own evaluation of the economy and analyze how it relates to government support (Duch & Stevenson, 2008; Feldman, 1984; Fiorina, 1981; Kiewiet & Rivers, 1984; Kinder & Kiewiet, 1979; Lewis-Beck, 19…”

“While many scholars use objective economic indicators to assess whether the bad shape of the economy results in a decline of electoral support for incumbents (e.g. Carlsen, 2000; Clarke et al., 2000; Harper, 2000; Nannestad & Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for their own…”

“…the bad shape of the economy results in a decline of electoral support for incumbents (e.g. Carlsen, 2000; Clarke et al., 2000; Harper, 2000; Nannestad & Paldam, 2000), others take advantage of opinion surveys, which ask respondents for their own evaluation of the economy and analyze how it…”

“Datasets collected online generally suffer from problems of under-coverage and self-selection that can potentially bias estimates (Bethlehem, 2010; Hooghe & Teepe, 2007).”

“While it has been acknowledged that extreme ideological left and right positions correspond with lower trust levels (Inglehart, 1987), whether rightwing or left-wing individuals are “more distrustful varies from one country to another” (Newton, 1999, p. 181).”

“Political extremes (left or right) are most associated with the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs (Krouwel, Kutiyski, van Prooijen, Martinsson, & Markstedt, 2017; van Prooijen, Krouwel, & Pollet, 2015).”

“Numerous studies have associated political ideology with political trust (see, for example, Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“…et al., 2019; Galliford & Furnham, 2017; Hart & Graether, 2018; Imhoff & Bruder, 2014; Miller et al. 2016; Ståhl & van Prooijen, 2018; van der Linden, 2015; van der Linden et al., 2020; Wagner-Egger & Bangerter, 2007; however, for an example of ―left-wing bias‖, see Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“Furthermore, individuals often subscribe to multiple conspiracy theories (Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“Several studies have found conspiracy thinking to be stronger at the political extremes (Krouwel et al., 2017; van Prooijen et al., 2015).”

“…shows that belief in conspiracy theories correlates with support for populist parties in Italy (Mancosu et al. 2017) and with extreme left-wing and right-wing ideology in the United States, the Netherlands and Sweden (Castanho Silva et al. 2017; Marwick & Lewis 2017; Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“…are more likely than extreme liberals, to believe conspiracy theories (van Prooijen et al., 2015); this results in a curvilinear, U-shaped relationship between conspiracy beliefs and political identities that oftentimes proves slightly stronger among conservatives (see also Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“[71] study the relationship between ideologies and trust in conspiracy theories related to rumors.”

“, 2019), extremism, populism, and radicalization (Bartlett & Miller, 2010; Krouwel et al., 2017; Silva et al., 2017; Van Prooijen et al., 2015), and a range of human emotions (for overviews, see Douglas et al.”

“Various studies have observed stronger conspiracy beliefs at both the left and right extremes of the political spectrum (Krouwel et al., 2017; Nera et al., 2021; van Prooijen et al., 2015), although some studies have observed stronger conspiracy beliefs mostly at the far-right (van der Linden et…”

“For instance, some studies have revealed that extreme political (left or right) orientations were associated with the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs (Krouwel et al., 2017; van Prooijen et al., 2015).”

“While Krouwel et al. (2017) found that ideological leaning to the left is associated with conspiracy beliefs in Sweden, our findings resonate with research showing that conspiracy thinking is more widespread among those that are leaning to the right ideologically (Walter and Drochon, 2020).”

“Belief in conspiracy theories is particularly associated with extreme ideologies, both at the left and the right ends of the political spectrum (Krouwel et al., 2017; van Prooijen et al., 2015).”

“understood if we have in mind that some studies have shown that both right- and left- political extremists are inclined to believe in conspiracy theories (Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“Poor knowledge (Miller et al., 2016) or low education (Garrett & Weeks, 2017; Krouwel et al., 2017) is positively related to conspiratorial beliefs.”

“Previous studies suggest that political cynicism and distrust in political systems, which typically increase in times of crises, are not necessarily associated with a specific political orientation, but with political extremism (both right and left) (Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“In short, if extreme rightists are similar to extreme leftists with respect to some characteristics that in turn enhance system criticism (e.g., Krouwel et al., 2017), then extreme rightists should criticize the system as much as, or similarly to, extreme leftists.”

“In samples from the United States, the Netherlands, and Sweden, conspiracy theorising appears to be strongest at both the far left and far right, and stronger at the extremes relative to centrists (van Prooijen, Krouwel, and Pollet 2015; Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“Wiederholt wurde bspw. die Zustimmung zu konkreten Verschwörungstheorien wie »The FBI was involved in the assassination of Martin Luther King« (Goertzel 1994) oder »The financial crisis was planned by bankers and politicians for their personal gain« (Krouwel et al. 2017) erfasst.”

“…the relationship between ideological self-identification and conspiracism is linear (van der Linden et al., 2021), whereas others find that it is curvilinear , taking the form of a U shape, sometimes higher on either the extreme right (Imhoff et al., 2022) or extreme left (Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“In line with the theoretical shortage, few studies introduce the topic of problematic information from a historical perspective (Krouwel et al., 2017; Enders and Smallpage, 2019; Rottweiler and Gill, 2020; Rousis et al., 2020; Enders and Uscinski, 2021).”

“The results confirm the findings of other studies that show an influ‐ ence of belief in conspiracy theories on attitudes toward democracy and right‐wing extremism (e.g., Imhoff et al., 2022; Krouwel et al., 2017; Pickel & Yendell, 2020).”

“…on dimensions of public opinion outside of the left-right orientation have slowly increased over the past decade, including studies on conspiracy beliefs (Douglas et al., 2019; Krouwel et al., 2017), populistic beliefs (e.g., Erisen et al., 2021), and Mani-chean thinking (e.g., Selçuk, 2016).”

“Several studies have found that people at the extreme ends of the political spectrum—at both left and right end are more likely than others to believe in conspiracy theories (Krouwel et al., 2017; van Prooijen et al., 2015).”

“More recently, research has moved away from psychopathological traits toward more modifiable ones such as preference for extremist ideologies and/or high levels of mistrust (Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“Further, higher political trust is linked to a lower susceptibility to conspiracy theories (Krouwel et al. 2017).”

“This result is partially in line with many studies showing that extreme political (left or right) orientations were associated with the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs (e.g., Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“To test for extremist parties, we use the quadratic function of the values which transforms the values of the extremist parties on the right and left spectrum to higher positive values (Krouwel et al., 2017).”

“Conspiracy theories are prevalent at both extremes of the political spectrum, although some studies suggest that this is particularly the case at the far right 69,74–78 .”

“…theorizing as a political attitude explored its links with political extremism and maintained that political extremists are more prone to show distrust and adopt conspiracy theories concerned with the alleged sources of socio-political problems (Krouwel et al., 2017; Van Proojien et al., 2015).”

“…to rate their trust towards a speci fi c target or institution (Imho ff & Lamberty, 2018; Jovan č evi ć & Mili ć evi ć , 2020; Kari ć & Me đ edovi ć , 2021; Krouwel et al., 2017; Miller et al., 2016; Pummerer et al., 2021), or more indirectly, asked to rate their perceived benevolence of others…”

“Krouwel et al. (2017) found that extreme ideologies on both the left and right are associated with a greater propensity for conspiracy beliefs than cen-trists.”

“…and views towards democracy (Balta et al. 2022; Bergmann and Butter 2020; Bilewicz and Imhoff 2022; Castanho Silva et al. 2017; Czech 2022; Grzesiak-Feldman 2015; Imhoff et al. 2022a; Krouwel et al. 2017; Müller 2022; Pantazi et al. 2022; Papaioannou et al. 2023a, 2023b; Walter and Drochon 2022).”

“spiracy theories (Krouwel et al. 2017; Van Prooijen, Krouwel, and Pollet 2015), particularly those on the far-right of the ideological spectrum (Bergmann 2018).”

“Personality traits influence political positions (Joly et al. 2018; Best, 2011; Desrochers et al., 2019; Dynes et al., 2019; Krouwel et al., 2017; Schoonvelde et al., 2019).”

“Although radical right-wing supporters show greater political distrust in the political system (Knigge, 1998; Lubbers et al., 2002), research has found that lower political trust is also a common feature of the radical left (Krouwel et al., 2017; Kutiyski et al., 2021).”

“On this point, if trust is not substantially related to political extremism (Krouwel et al., 2017), increasing evidence suggests that the way in which political trust unfolds is also a function of the underlying ideological stance of the individual, most notably in terms of ideological support for…”

“…in the current geopolitical context, as economic anxiety or a general sense of disillusionment with the economy and democracy are known to be relevant drivers of political preferences and voting support for populist politicians and parties (Krouwel et al., 2017; Papaioannou et al., 2024).”

“On the one hand, there is research that shows conspir-acy belief is primarily concentrated at all political extremes (Imhoff et al., 2022; van Prooijen et al., 2015; Krouwel et al., 2017), albeit often with stronger conspiratorial tendencies on the right end of the political spectrum.”

“Although the extreme ends of the left–right orientation spectrum have received attention as exhibiting similarities in system-level beliefs (Krouwel et al., 2017), the midpoint has largely been ignored FIGURE 6 LOESS trend lines of relationships between left–right items and selected issues items,…”

“, 2013), and that extreme ideology is explicitly linked to endorsing conspiracy theories (Krouwel et al., 2017; Van Prooijen et al., 2015).”

“Extremists (of the ideological, political, or religious kind) are both more inclined to believe conspiracy theories than moderates, and often incorporate conspiracy theories into their broader belief systems (Bartlett & Miller, 2010; Krouwel et al., 2017).”