Population estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in the United States (2020–2060)
Open accessAbstract
Introduction: The estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment provides an understanding of the disease burden. Methods: We estimated people with cognitive impairment using a quasibinomial regression model in 10,342 participants with cognitive test scores. Results: The 2020 US Census–adjusted prevalence of clinical AD was 11.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.7–11.9): 10.0% among non‐Hispanic Whites, 14.0% among Hispanics, and 18.6% among non‐Hispanic Blacks. We estimate that in 2020, 6.07 (95% CI = 5.75–6.38) million people were living with clinical AD, which increases to 13.85 (95% CI = 12.98–14.74) million in 2060, 423% higher among Hispanics, 192% higher among Blacks, and 63% higher among Whites. However, there are predicted to be more significant increases in later years among those over 85 and women compared to men. Discussion: The number of people with clinical AD will increase as the “baby boom” generation reaches older ages, exerting a strong upward influence on disease burden.
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Of the 6.7 million people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia in the United States, 4.1 million are women and 2.6 million are men.
“Of the 6.7 million people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia in the United States, 4.1 million are women and 2.6 million are men.222”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
The Results sections report that more women than men have clinical Alzheimer’s disease in the United States, supporting the claimed gender pattern. They do not give the cited figures: the paper estimates 6.07 million adults aged 65 and older in 2020, including 3.74 million women and 2.34 million men. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2060, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 13.8 million, barring medical breakthroughs.
“By 2060, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 13.8 million, barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent, slow or cure Alzheimer's disease.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
The Results and Discussion project 13.85 million US adults aged 65 or older with clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2060, close to the cited 13.8 million. The Discussion says projections may change with future disease occurrence, but the paper does not specifically condition its estimate on the absence of breakthroughs to prevent, slow, or cure the disease. Page numbers are not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2025, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 7.2 million, a 7% increase from 6.7 million in 2023.
“By 2025, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 7.2 million -an 7% increase from the 6.7 million age 65 and older affected in 2023.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
The Results section projects 7.16 million US older adults with clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2025, which rounds to 7.2 million. Our copy does not give the claimed 6.7 million figure for 2023 or a 7% increase from that year; its stated 18% increase compares 2025 with 2020. No page number is available in the indexed passage. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2030, the projected 74 million older Americans will make up over 20% of the total population, up from 18% in 2023.
“By 2030, the segment of the U.S. population age 65 and older will have grown substantially, and the projected 74 million older Americans will make up over 20% of the total population (up from 18% in 2023).”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
The Introduction and Discussion (page numbers unavailable) say that the aging baby-boom generation is increasing the number of older U.S. adults. Neither section gives the claimed 74 million projection for 2030 or the population shares of over 20% in 2030 and 18% in 2023; searches for those figures found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn 2023, about 2.4 million people with Alzheimer's dementia are age 85 or older, accounting for 33% of all people with Alzheimer's dementia.
“In 2023, about 2.4 million people who have Alzheimer's dementia are age 85 or older, accounting for 33% of all people with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
The Results section on age-specific numbers (page unavailable) estimates 2.24 million people over 85 with clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2020 and 2.27 million in 2021, and projects growth thereafter. The Results section on overall numbers gives totals for 2020 and 2025, but our copy does not state the claimed 2023 figure of about 2.4 million or the 33% share. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
The percentage of people with Alzheimer's dementia increases with age: 5.0% of people age 65 to 74, 13.2% of people age 75 to 84, and 33.4% of people age 85 and older have Alzheimer's dementia.
“The percentage of people with Alzheimer's dementia increases with age: 5.0% of people age 65 to 74, 13.2% of people age 75 to 84, and 33.4% of people age 85 and older have Alzheimer's dementia.A2 , 241”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results section, “2020 US Census Adjusted Prevalence of Clinical AD and MCI” (page unavailable), supports the claim that prevalence increases across these age groups. It reports 5.3%, 13.8%, and 34.6%, however, not the cited 5.0%, 13.2%, and 33.4%. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAbout 1 in 9 people (10.9%) age 65 and older in the U.S. has Alzheimer's dementia.
“About 1 in 9 people (10.9%) age 65 and older has Alzheimer's dementia.A2 , 241”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results section (page unavailable) estimates that 11.3% of U.S. adults aged 65 and older had clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2020, which supports the approximation of about 1 in 9. It does not report the cited figure of 10.9%. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAn estimated 6.9 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's dementia in 2024.
“An estimated 6.9 million Americans age 65 and older are living with Alzheimer's dementia in 2024.A2 , 241”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Discussion estimates 6.07 million US adults aged 65 and older with clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2020 and projects an increase to 13.85 million in 2060. Our copy supports the population and an increasing trend, but does not give the claimed 6.9 million estimate for 2024 (searched: 2024, 6.9). (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSeventy-four percent of Americans age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia are age 75 or older.
“Seventy‐four percent are age 75 or older (Figure 2). 241”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results section (page unavailable) estimates 2.18 million people aged 75–84 and 2.24 million aged over 85 with clinical AD in 2020; the Discussion (page unavailable) gives 6.07 million aged 65 and older overall. Those figures put the share aged 75 or older at about 73%, supporting the age distribution but not the cited 74% figure exactly. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOf the 6.9 million people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia in the United States, 4.2 million are women and 2.7 million are men.
“Of the 6.9 million people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia in the United States, 4.2 million are women and 2.7 million are men.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results sections on overall and gender-specific estimates report U.S. adults aged 65 and older with clinical AD and find more women than men. They do not support the quoted counts: for 2020, the paper estimates 6.07 million total, including 3.74 million women and 2.34 million men; it does not give the claim a year. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBy 2060, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 13.8 million, barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent or cure Alzheimer's disease.
“By 2060, the number of people age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia is projected to reach 13.8 million, barring the development of medical breakthroughs to prevent or cure Alzheimer's disease.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Discussion projects 13.85 million U.S. adults aged 65 and older with clinical Alzheimer’s disease in 2060, closely matching the cited 13.8 million. It does not explicitly make that projection conditional on the absence of medical breakthroughs to prevent or cure the disease; it says more generally that future changes in disease occurrence could alter the projections. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIncreasing age is the predominant risk factor for Alzheimer's dementia.
“Because increasing age is the predominant risk factor for Alzheimer's dementia, as the number and proportion of older Americans grows rapidly, so too will the numbers of new and existing cases of Alzheimer's dementia”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results report that clinical Alzheimer’s disease prevalence rises from 5.3% at ages 65–74 to 34.6% at ages 85 and older; the Discussion says prevalence is two- to threefold higher with each successive decade of age. This supports a strong association with increasing age, but the paper does not establish that age is the predominant risk factor relative to other factors. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn 2024, about 2.4 million people living with Alzheimer's dementia are expected to be age 85 or older, accounting for 34% of all people with Alzheimer's dementia.
“In 2024, about 2.4 million people living with Alzheimer's dementia are expected to be age 85 or older, accounting for 34% of all people with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Results section on age-specific clinical AD estimates reports 2.24 million people aged 85 or older in 2020 and projects an increase thereafter. The Results section on overall estimates gives 6.07 million people with clinical AD in 2020 and 7.16 million in 2025. Our copy does not state the claimed 2024 estimate of 2.4 million or the 34% share. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAs the number and proportion of older Americans grows rapidly, the numbers of new and existing cases of Alzheimer's dementia will increase.
“as the number and proportion of older Americans grows rapidly, so too will the numbers of new and existing cases of Alzheimer's dementia”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
The Introduction says the aging baby-boom generation is increasing the number of older Americans, and the Discussion projects that people living with clinical AD will increase from 6.07 million in 2020 to 13.85 million in 2060. Those passages support the claim about existing cases, but the paper projects prevalence, not the number of new cases. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWomen have increased susceptibility to E4 related phenotypes compared to men.
“women have increased susceptibility to E4 related phenotypes compared to men (Rajan et al., 2021; Yin et al., 2023)”
From APOE4 reshapes the lipid droplet proteome and modulates microglial inflammatory responses (2025) · cites this paper as Rajan et al., 2021
The Results section (‘Gender-Specific Number of People with Clinical AD from 2020 through 2060’; page unavailable) estimates more women than men living with clinical Alzheimer’s disease. It does not assess E4 status or whether women are more susceptible than men to E4-related phenotypes; searches for APOE ε4 and E4-related phenotypes found no such analysis. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSeventy-three percent of Americans age 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia are age 75 or older.
“Seventy-three percent are age 75 or older (Figure 2).222”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
CHAP data indicate that 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic adults age 65 and older have Alzheimer's dementia, compared with 10% of White older adults.
“Data from the CHAP study indicates 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic adults age 65 and older have Alzheimer's dementia compared with 10% of White older adults.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
Almost two-thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's dementia are women.
“Almost two-thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's dementia are women.222”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
By 2060, 6.7 million people age 85 and older are expected to have Alzheimer's dementia, accounting for about half (48%) of all people 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia.
“By 2060, 6.7 million people age 85 and older are expected to have Alzheimer's dementia, accounting for about half (48%) of all people 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [222]
Almost two-thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's are women.
“Almost two‐thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's are women.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
Data from CHAP study indicates 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic adults age 65 and older have Alzheimer's dementia compared with 10% of White older adults.
“Data from the CHAP study indicates 19% of Black and 14% of Hispanic adults age 65 and older have Alzheimer's dementia compared with 10% of White older adults.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
By 2060, 6.7 million people age 85 and older are expected to have Alzheimer's dementia, accounting for about 48% of all people 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia.
“By 2060, 6.7 million people age 85 and older are expected to have Alzheimer's dementia, accounting for about half (48%) of all people 65 and older with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [241]
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Self-citationBrady, B., Zheng, L., Kootar, S., & Anstey, K. J. (2024) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.13317 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
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Distinct sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease
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“Introduction As the US population ages, Alzheimer’s disease (AD), which occurs in approximately one out every nine people over 65 years old [1], has become one of the most prominent and most costly public health problems for older adults [2].”
BackgroundAPOE4 reshapes the lipid droplet proteome and modulates microglial inflammatory responses
Friday, C. M., Stephens, I. O., Smith, C. T., Lee, S., Satish, D., Devanney, N. A., Cohen, S., Morganti, J. M., Gordon, S. M., & Johnson, L. A. (2025) · Neurobiology of Disease · doi:10.1016/j.nbd.2025.106983 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Speech patterns during memory recall relates to early tau burden across adulthood
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“The increasing prevalence of AD calls urgent attention to both treatment and diagnosis 15 .”
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“AD has emerged as one of the leading causes of physical and cognitive disability globally, accounting for almost 80% of all reported dementia diagnoses [36–39].”
- Authors
- Rajan, K. B., Weuve, J., Barnes, L. L., McAninch, E. A., Wilson, R. S., & Evans, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Rush University Medical Center (US)
- Boston University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rajan, Kumar B.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Alzheimer's & Dementia
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021-05-27
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1966-1975
- ISSN
- 1552-5260 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-5279
- PMC
- PMC9013315
- OpenAlex
- W3164808835
- Cited by
- 1,268
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 232 · 2025: 370 · 2024: 308 · 2023: 214 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 22
- FWCI
- 118.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Alzheimer s & Dementia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (RF1AG057532, R01AG058679, R01AG051635)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, mild cognitive impairment
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Male, Models, Statistical, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Cognitive Dysfunction
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