Trends in the incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer's disease, dementia, and cognitive impairment in the United States
Open accessAbstract
Declines in heart disease and stroke mortality rates are conventionally attributed to reductions in cigarette smoking, recognition and treatment of hypertension and diabetes, effective medications to improve serum lipid levels and to reduce clot formation, and general lifestyle improvements. Recent evidence implicates these and other cerebrovascular factors in the development of a substantial proportion of dementia cases. Analyses were undertaken to determine whether corresponding declines in age‐specific prevalence and incidence rates for dementia and cognitive impairment have occurred in recent years. Data spanning 1 or 2 decades were examined from community‐based epidemiological studies in Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana, and from the Health and Retirement Study, which is a national survey. Although some decline was observed in the Minnesota cohort, no statistically significant trends were apparent in the community studies. A significant reduction in cognitive impairment measured by neuropsychological testing was identified in the national survey. Cautious optimism appears justified.
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Diabetes and obesity are risk factors for Alzheimer's dementia, and worldwide increases in these conditions among people younger than 65 may lead to a rebound in dementia risk in coming years.
“Diabetes and obesity are risk factors for Alzheimer's dementia, and these increases may lead to a rebound in dementia risk in coming years.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [336]
The Introduction says rising diabetes and obesity may increase the risk of cognitive decline and dementia, with effects that may emerge in future decades. The Discussion likewise says their increasing prevalence could contribute to higher dementia rates. These passages do not establish the claim specifically for Alzheimer’s dementia or document worldwide increases among people younger than 65. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWorldwide increases in diabetes and obesity, which are risk factors for dementia, among people younger than 65 may lead to a rebound in dementia risk in coming years.
“For example, worldwide increases in diabetes and obesity, which are risk factors for dementia, among people younger than 65 may lead to a rebound in dementia risk in coming years.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [366]
The Introduction says rising diabetes and obesity may increase dementia risk, with effects potentially emerging in future decades. The Discussion reports increases from childhood through adulthood and says dementia rates could rise or fall depending on competing influences. The paper does not establish worldwide increases in these risk factors or specifically predict a rebound in dementia risk. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe annual incidence of Alzheimer's disease increases exponentially with advancing age.
“The annual incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has been shown to increase exponentially with advancing age [2,3].”
From Ageing, Cellular Senescence and Neurodegenerative Disease (2018) · cites this paper as [3]
The incidence of dementia increases continually up to and above 90 years of age.
“The incidence of dementia increases continually up to (179-183) and above (139, 184) 90 years of age.”
From Correlation of Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Changes With Cognitive Status: A Review of the Literature (2012) · cites this paper as [182]
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- Authors
- Rocca, W. A., Petersen, R. C., Knopman, D. S., Hebert, L. E., Evans, D. A., Hall, K. S., Gao, S., Unverzagt, F. W., Langa, K. M., Larson, E. B., & White, L. R.
- Affiliations
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- Rush University Medical Center (US)
- Indiana University Indianapolis (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (US)
- Kuakini Medical Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rocca, Walter A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Alzheimer's & Dementia
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-01
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 80-93
- ISSN
- 1552-5260 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-5279
- PMC
- PMC3026476
- OpenAlex
- W2091036612
- Cited by
- 498
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 51 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 42 · 2015: 38 · 2014: 34 · 2013: 28 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 19.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Alzheimer s & Dementia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG034676, U01AG06786, R01AG011101, R03AG029652, R01AG009956, U01AG009740, R01AG015911, R01AG019805, R01AG027010, K08AG019180, U01AG006781, U01AG017155, U01AG019349)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, dementia
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Alzheimer Disease, Cognition Disorders, Dementia, Humans, Residence Characteristics, Retrospective Studies, Time Factors, United States, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Prevalence, Community Health Planning
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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