Why ultra high risk criteria for psychosis prediction do not work well outside clinical samples and what to do about it

Heterogeneity of Psychosis Risk Within Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Meta-analytical Stratification

Fusar-Poli, P., Cappucciati, M., Borgwardt, S., Woods, S. W., Addington, J., Nelson, B., Nieman, D. H., Stahl, D. R., Rutigliano, G., Riecher-Rössler, A., et al. (2016) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2015.2324 · Cited by 440 · see citing works

Disorder, not just state of risk: Meta-analysis of functioning and quality of life in people at high risk of psychosis

Fusar-Poli, P., Rocchetti, M., Sardella, A., Avila, A., Brandizzi, M., Caverzasi, E., Politi, P., Ruhrmann, S., & McGuire, P. (2015) · British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.114.157115 · Cited by 272 · see citing works

At risk or not at risk? A meta‐analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

Fusar‐Poli, P., Cappucciati, M., Rutigliano, G., Schultze‐Lutter, F., Bonoldi, I., Borgwardt, S., Riecher‐Rössler, A., Addington, J., Perkins, D., Woods, S. W., et al. (2015) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20250 · Cited by 234 · see citing works

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Fusar-Poli, P., Schultze-Lutter, F., Cappucciati, M., Rutigliano, G., Bonoldi, I., Stahl, D., Borgwardt, S., Riecher-Rössler, A., Addington, J., Perkins, D. O., et al. (2016) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sbv162 · Cited by 219 · see citing works

Age matters in the prevalence and clinical significance of ultra-high-risk for psychosis symptoms and criteria in the general population: Findings from the BEAR and BEARS-kid studies

SCHIMMELMANN, B. G., Michel, C., Martz-Irngartinger, A., Linder, C., & Schultze‐Lutter, F. (2015) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20216 · Cited by 133 · see citing works

Improving Prognostic Accuracy in Subjects at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Systematic Review of Predictive Models and Meta-analytical Sequential Testing Simulation

Schmidt, A., Cappucciati, M., Raduà, J., Rutigliano, G., Rocchetti, M., Dell’Osso, L., Politi, P., Borgwardt, S., Reilly, T. J., Valmaggia, L., et al. (2016) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sbw098 · Cited by 131 · see citing works

Persistence of psychosis spectrum symptoms in the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort: a prospective two‐year follow‐up

Calkins, M. E., Moore, T. M., Satterthwaite, T. D., Wolf, D. H., Turetsky, B. I., Roalf, D. R., Merikangas, K. R., Ruparel, K., Kohler, C. G., Gur, R. C., et al. (2017) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20386 · Cited by 124 · see citing works

Deconstructing Pretest Risk Enrichment to Optimize Prediction of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk

Fusar-Poli, P., Rutigliano, G., Stahl, D., Schmidt, A., Ramella-Cravaro, V., Hitesh, S., & McGuire, P. (2016) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2016.2707 · Cited by 121 · see citing works

Duration of untreated psychosis and need for admission in patients who engage with mental health services in the prodromal phase

Valmaggia, L., Byrne, M., Day, F., Broome, M. R., Johns, L., Howes, O. D., Power, P., Badger, S., Fusar‐Poli, P., & McGuire, P. K. (2015) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.114.150623 · Cited by 82 · see citing works

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Fusar‐Poli, P., & Schultze‐Lutter, F. (2016) · Evidence-Based Mental Health · doi:10.1136/eb-2015-102295 · Cited by 66 · see citing works

Ultra high risk status and transition to psychosis in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome

Schneider, M., Armando, M., Pontillo, M., Vicari, S., Debbané, M., Schultze‐Lutter, F., & Eliez, S. (2016) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20347 · Cited by 63 · see citing works

Services for people at high risk improve outcomes in patients with first episode psychosis

Fusar‐Poli, P., Díaz‐Caneja, C. M., Patel, R., Valmaggia, L., Byrne, M., Garety, P. A., Shetty, H., Broadbent, M. T. M., Stewart, R. J., & McGuire, P. K. (2015) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/acps.12480 · Cited by 57 · see citing works

Demographic and clinical characteristics of diagnosed and non‐diagnosed psychotic disorders in the community

Michel, C., SCHIMMELMANN, B. G., & Schultze‐Lutter, F. (2016) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/eip.12360 · Cited by 7 · see citing works

Improving outcomes of first‐episode psychosis: an overview

Fusar‐Poli, P., McGorry, P. D., & Kane, J. M. (2017) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20446 · Cited by 575 · see citing works

What causes psychosis? An umbrella review of risk and protective factors

Radua, J., Ramella‐Cravaro, V., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Reichenberg, A., Phiphopthatsanee, N., Amir, T., Yenn Thoo, H., Oliver, D., Davies, C., Morgan, C., et al. (2018) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20490 · Cited by 553 · see citing works

Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people

Fusar‐Poli, P., Correll, C. U., Arango, C., Berk, M., Patel, V., & Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2021) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20869 · Cited by 497 · see citing works

Lack of evidence to favor specific preventive interventions in psychosis: a network meta‐analysis

Davies, C., Cipriani, A., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Radua, J., Stahl, D., Provenzani, U., McGuire, P., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2018) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20526 · Cited by 229 · see citing works

The Science of Prognosis in Psychiatry: A Review

Fusar-Poli, P., Hijazi, Z., Stahl, D., & Steyerberg, E. W. (2018) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2018.2530 · Cited by 197 · see citing works

What Causes the Onset of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk? A Meta-analysis of Risk and Protective Factors

Oliver, D., Reilly, T. J., Boy, O. B., Petros, N., Davies, C., Borgwardt, S., McGuire, P. K., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2019) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sbz039 · Cited by 164 · see citing works

Long-term validity of the At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for predicting psychotic and non-psychotic mental disorders

Fusar-Poli, P., Rutigliano, G., Stahl, D., Davies, C., De Micheli, A., Ramella-Cravaro, V., Bonoldi, I., & McGuire, P. (2017) · European Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.eurpsy.2016.11.010 · Cited by 120 · see citing works

Preventive Treatments for Psychosis: Umbrella Review (Just the Evidence)

Fusar-Poli, P., Davies, C., Solmi, M., Brondino, N., De Micheli, A., Kotlicka-Antczak, M., Shin, J. I., & Radua, J. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00764 · Cited by 108 · see citing works

Efficacy and acceptability of interventions for attenuated positive psychotic symptoms in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis: A network meta-analysis

Davies, C., Radua, J., Cipriani, A., Stahl, D., Provenzani, U., McGuire, P., & Fusar-Poli, P. (2018) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2018.00187 · Cited by 107 · see citing works

Clinical Validity of<i>DSM-5</i>Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome: Advances in Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Treatment

Salazar de Pablo, G., Catalan, A., & Fusar-Poli, P. (2020) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2019.3561 · Cited by 103 · see citing works

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust

Fusar-Poli, P., Werbeloff, N., Rutigliano, G., Oliver, D., Davies, C., Stahl, D., McGuire, P., & Osborn, D. (2019) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sby070 · Cited by 95 · see citing works

Improving the Detection of Individuals at Clinical Risk for Psychosis in the Community, Primary and Secondary Care: An Integrated Evidence-Based Approach

Fusar-Poli, P., Sullivan, S. A., Shah, J. L., & Uhlhaas, P. J. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00774 · Cited by 92 · see citing works

Worldwide implementation of clinical services for the prevention of psychosis: The IEPA early intervention in mental health survey

Kotlicka‐Antczak, M., Podgórski, M. T., Oliver, D., Marić, N. P., Valmaggia, L., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2020) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/eip.12950 · Cited by 92 · see citing works

Individualized Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Patients With Psychosis Risk Syndromes: A Meta-analytic View on the State of the Art

Sanfelici, R., Dwyer, D. B., Antonucci, L. A., & Koutsouleris, N. (2020) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2020.02.009 · Cited by 82 · see citing works

Ethical challenges in contemporary psychiatry: an overview and an appraisal of possible strategies and research needs

Galderisi, S., Appelbaum, P. S., Gill, N., Gooding, P., Herrman, H., Melillo, A., Myrick, K., Pathare, S., Savage, M., Szmukler, G., et al. (2024) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.21230 · Cited by 76 · see citing works

Psychosis Polyrisk Score (PPS) for the Detection of Individuals At-Risk and the Prediction of Their Outcomes

Oliver, D., Raduà, J., Reichenberg, A., Uher, R., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00174 · Cited by 69 · see citing works

Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders

Lee, T. Y., Lee, J., Kim, M., Choe, E., & Kwon, J. S. (2017) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sbx173 · Cited by 62 · see citing works

Outreach and support in South-London (OASIS) 2001—2020: Twenty years of early detection, prognosis and preventive care for young people at risk of psychosis

Fusar-Poli, P., Spencer, T., De Micheli, A., Curzi, V., Nandha, S., & McGuire, P. (2020) · European Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.euroneuro.2020.08.002 · Cited by 57 · see citing works

Four reasons why early detection centers for psychosis should be renamed and their treatment targets reconsidered: we should not catastrophize a future we can neither reliably predict nor change

Moritz, S., Gawęda, Ł., Heinz, A., & Gallinat, J. (2019) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291719001740 · Cited by 60 · see citing works

Prognostic accuracy and clinical utility of psychometric instruments for individuals at clinical high-risk of psychosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Oliver, D., Arribas, M., Radua, J., Salazar de Pablo, G., De Micheli, A., Spada, G., Mensi, M. M., Kotlicka-Antczak, M., Borgatti, R., Solmi, M., et al. (2022) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-022-01611-w · Cited by 49 · see citing works

Why transition risk to psychosis is not declining at the OASIS ultra high risk service: The hidden role of stable pretest risk enrichment

Fusar‐Poli, P., Palombini, E., Davies, C., Oliver, D., Bonoldi, I., Ramella‐Cravaro, V., & McGuire, P. K. (2017) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2017.06.015 · Cited by 48 · see citing works

Real World Implementation of a Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk of Psychosis in Clinical Routine: Study Protocol

Fusar‐Poli, P., Oliver, D., Spada, G., Patel, R., Stewart, R. J., Dobson, R., & McGuire, P. K. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00109 · Cited by 39 · see citing works

Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Malda, A., Boonstra, N., Barf, H., de Jong, S., Aleman, A., Addington, J., Pruessner, M., Nieman, D. H., de Haan, L., Morrison, A. P., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00345 · Cited by 39 · see citing works

Clinical-learning versus machine-learning for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis onset in individuals at-risk

Fusar‐Poli, P., Stringer, D., Durieux, A. M. S., Rutigliano, G., Bonoldi, I., Micheli, A. D., & Stahl, D. R. (2019) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41398-019-0600-9 · Cited by 37 · see citing works

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis

Fusar‐Poli, P., Micheli, A. D., Cappucciati, M., Rutigliano, G., Davies, C., Ramella‐Cravaro, V., Oliver, D., Bonoldi, I., Rocchetti, M., Gavaghan, L., et al. (2017) · Schizophrenia Bulletin · doi:10.1093/schbul/sbx055 · Cited by 34 · see citing works

Patterns of symptoms before a diagnosis of first episode psychosis: a latent class analysis of UK primary care electronic health records

Chen, Y., Farooq, S., Edwards, J., Chew-Graham, C. A., Shiers, D., Frisher, M., Hayward, R. A., Sumathipala, A., & Jordan, K. P. (2019) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-019-1462-y · Cited by 36 · see citing works

Pan-London Network for Psychosis-Prevention (PNP)

Fusar‐Poli, P., Estradé, A., Spencer, T. J., Gupta, S., Murguia, S., Eranti, S. V., Wilding, K., Andlauer, O., Buhagiar, J., Smith, M., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00707 · Cited by 27 · see citing works

Transdiagnostic Individualized Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Model Refinement Including Nonlinear Effects of Age

Fusar‐Poli, P., Davies, C., Rutigliano, G., Stahl, D. R., Bonoldi, I., & McGuire, P. K. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00313 · Cited by 19 · see citing works

Short clinically-based prediction model to forecast transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk state

Kotlicka‐Antczak, M., Karbownik, M. S., Stawiski, K., Pawełczyk, A. M., Żurner, N., Pawełczyk, T., Strzelecki, D., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2019) · European Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.eurpsy.2019.02.007 · Cited by 19 · see citing works

Turkish version of Structured Interview of Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and proposal of a brief version of SIPS as a pretest risk enrichment

Tonyali, A., Karaçetin, G., Kanık, A., Ertaş, E., Karabağ, U., Umut, Ö., Çıray, R. O., Özkan, B., & Ermiş, Ç. (2022) · Nöro Psikiyatri Arşivi · doi:10.29399/npa.27793 · Cited by 14 · see citing works

Sex differences in symptomatology of psychosis-risk patients and in prediction of psychosis

Rosen, M., Haidl, T. K., Ruhrmann, S., Vogeley, K., & Schultze-Lutter, F. (2020) · Archives of Women's Mental Health · doi:10.1007/s00737-019-01000-3 · Cited by 16 · see citing works

ITAlian Partnership for Psychosis Prevention (ITAPP): improving the mental health of young people

Fusar‐Poli, P., Minichino, A., Brambilla, P., Raballo, A., Bertolino, A., Borgatti, R., Mensi, M. M., Ferro, A., & Galderisi, S. (2021) · European Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/j.eurpsy.2021.2232 · Cited by 9 · see citing works

Advances and challenges in early intervention in psychosis

MALLA, A. K., Shah, J. L., & Lal, S. (2017) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20453 · Cited by 9 · see citing works

Neural Correlates of Facial Emotion Recognition in Non-help-seeking University Students With Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

Hou, J., Schmitt, S., Zhao, X., Wang, J., Chen, J., Mao, Z., Qi, A., Lu, Z., Kircher, T. T. J., Yang, Y., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.812208 · Cited by 7 · see citing works

Differential contributions between objective and subjective psychosis‐like experiences to suicidal ideation in college students

Ma, H.-X., Zhao, J., Lin, I.-A., Zhang, X., Li, Z.-J., Wang, C.-Y., Zhou, F., & Verma, S. (2021) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/eip.13259 · Cited by 5 · see citing works

The specificity of schizotypal scales and some implications for clinical high-risk research

Moritz, S., Andresen, B., & Sengutta, M. (2019) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2019.05.056 · Cited by 6 · see citing works

Commentary: Preventive Treatments for Psychosis: Umbrella Review (Just the Evidence)

Nelson, B., Amminger, G. P., Thompson, A. D., Wood, S. J., Yung, A. R., & McGorry, P. D. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00488 · Cited by 5 · see citing works

Depressive symptom screening and endorsement of psychosis risk-related experiences in a diverse adolescent and young adult outpatient clinic in the US

Johnson, K. A., Shrier, L. A., Eiduson, R., Parsa, N., Lilly, M. E., D’Angelo, E. J., Straus, J. H., & Woodberry, K. A. (2021) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2021.11.026 · Cited by 4 · see citing works

Integrating dynamical systems theory and phenomenology to enhance early identification and treatment of psychotic disorders

Feyaerts, J., Brar, P. S., Sass, L. A., & Nelson, B. (2025) · The Lancet Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s2215-0366(25)00244-5 · Cited by 3 · see citing works

Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis : Clinical Characteristics and Diagnosis

An, S. K. (2018) · 신경정신의학 · doi:10.4306/jknpa.2018.57.3.210 · Cited by 2 · see citing works

Dissecting the psychosis continuum

van der Steen (2018) · doi:10.26481/dis.20180615ys · Cited by 2 · see citing works

Klinische Umsetzung von Früherkennung und Frühintervention bei Psychoserisiko

Trimmel, M., Hinterbuchinger, B., Friedrich, F., & Mossaheb, N. (2022) · psychopraxis neuropraxis · doi:10.1007/s00739-022-00880-y · Cited by 1 · see citing works

Gene Polymorphisms and Expression of NRG1, DAOA, and DISC1 Genes in a Chinese Han Population with an Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

He, X., Huang, Z., Wang, F., Chen, Z.-L., Wang, S., Jia, F., & Hou, C. (2023) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s434856 · Cited by 1 · see citing works

Neurocognitive deficits in participants at clinical high-risk for psychosis: relationships to clinical symptoms and functioning

Mitchell, L. (2018) · Enlighten: Theses (The University of Glasgow)

Menstrüasyon Sırasındaki Psikotik Ataklar: Olgu Sunumu

AKOĞLU, B., Demir, V., & Algedik, P. (2023) · Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi · doi:10.51754/cusbed.1293467

Clinical Prediction Besides Transition to Psychosis in the Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis Population

Polari, A. R., Lavoie, S., Yuen, H. P., Amminger, G. P., Berger, G. E., Chen, E. Y. H., de Haan, L., Hartmann, J., Markulev, C., Nieman, D. H., et al. (2018) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · Cited by 2 · see citing works

Studying biomarkers in populations at genetic and clinical high risk for psychosis

de Koning, M. B. (2013) · doi:10.26481/dis.20131129mk · Cited by 1 · see citing works

Can Clinicians Predict Psychosis in an Ultra High Risk Group?

Nelson, B., & Yung, A. R. (2010) · Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.3109/00048671003620210 · Cited by 31 · see citing works

Development and temporal validation of a clinical prediction model of transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk in the UHR 1000+ cohort – Supplementary material (World Psychiatry)Preprint

Hartmann, S. (2024) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)

Predicting clinical response in people at ultra-high risk of psychosis: a systematic and quantitative review

Mechelli, A., Prata, D. P., Kefford, C., & Kapur, S. (2015) · Drug Discovery Today · doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2015.03.003 · Cited by 9 · see citing works