Validation of “prodromal” criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up
Abstract
Background Identification of individuals "prodromal" for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders relies on criteria that predict onset within a brief period. Previous trials and biological research have been predicated on the view that certain "ultra high risk" (UHR) criteria detect "the prodrome", but there is a need to test the validity of these criteria.Aim To assess the predictive validity of the UHR criteria in a clinical population.Method The presence of UHR criteria was determined in 292 help-seeking individuals. At 2 year follow-up the number of new cases of psychotic disorder was assessed.Results The criteria significantly predicted onset of psychotic disorder within 2 years. The transition rate of 16% was much lower than in initial cohorts (over 40%).Conclusions The predictive validity of UHR criteria depends on the sample to which they are applied. Although young help-seekers meeting these criteria are at greater risk of psychotic disorder than those who do not meet them, caution is needed in their management, since a high transition rate can no longer be assumed.
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The transition rate of 9.4% is lower than expected in a group of individuals fulfilling the at-risk criteria (typically >16%).
“This was not possible to test in this study as there was a very low transition rate to psychosis in the group (9.4%), lower than expected in a group of individuals fulfilling the at-risk criteria (typically >16%; Hartmann et al., 2016; Yung et al., 2008).”
From Sleep duration and psychotic experiences in patients at risk of psychosis: a secondary analysis of the EDIE-2 trial (2019) · cites this paper as Yung et al., 2008
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- Authors
- Yung, A. R., Nelson, B., Stanford, C., Simmons, M. B., Cosgrave, E. M., Killackey, E., Phillips, L. J., Bechdolf, A., Buckby, J., & McGorry, P. D.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Orygen (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Yung, Alison R.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Schizophrenia Research
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2008-10
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 1-3
- Pages
- 10-17
- ISSN
- 0920-9964 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2112064724
- Cited by
- 358
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 34 · 2012: 45
- FWCI
- 23.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Schizophrenia Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Keywords
- clinical high risk for psychosis, prodromal psychosis
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Delusions, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hallucinations, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, Predictive Value of Tests, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Psychometrics, Psychotic Disorders, Risk Factors, Schizophrenia, Schizophrenic Psychology, Reproducibility of Results, Cohort Studies, Comorbidity, Young Adult
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