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Cited by 134Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural StudiesClimate change impacts on agricultureEcosystem dynamics and resilience

Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse

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Richards, C. E., Lupton, R. C., Allwood, J. M.·2021·Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w
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Abstract

Abstract There is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse pathway. We first review the societal collapse and existential risk literature and define a set of determinants of societal collapse. We develop an original methodology, using these determinants as societal collapse proxies, to identify an empirical evidence base of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse in contemporary society and then structure it using a novel-format causal loop diagram (CLD) defined at global scale and national granularity. The resulting evidence base varies in temporal and spatial distribution of study and in the type of data-driven methods used. The resulting CLD documents the spread of the evidence base, using line thickness and colour to depict density and type of data-driven method respectively. It enables exploration of how the effects of climate change may undermine agricultural systems and disrupt food supply, which can lead to economic shocks, socio-political instability as well as starvation, migration and conflict. Suggestions are made for future work that could build on this paper to further develop our qualitative understanding of, and quantitative complex systems modelling capabilities for analysing, the causal pathways between climate change and societal collapse.

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  • Small variations in yields of staple crops could induce disproportionate price fluctuations and cascades into socio-political violence, particularly in areas with political instability and weaker governance.

    “Small variations in yields of staple crops could induce disproportionate price fluctuations and cascades into socio-political violence, particularly in areas with political instability and weaker governance (Natalini et al., 2015, 2017; Richards et al., 2021).”

    From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Richards et al., 2021

    Section 4.2 (page unavailable) links losses in food production and food insecurity to conflict and socio-political instability, and says already fragile states are expected to be hit hardest. It does not establish that small changes in staple-crop yields cause disproportionate price fluctuations, or specifically identify weak governance as the condition for the claimed cascade. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Johnson SAJ (2017) Why did ancient societies fail? Routledge, New York
  2. Toynbee AJ (1961) A study of history (Vol I -IX). Oxford University Press, Oxford

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Related

Authors
Richards, C. E., Lupton, R. C., & Allwood, J. M.
Affiliations
University of Cambridge (GB)
Corresponding author
Allwood, J. M.
ORCID
Venue
Climatic Change
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2021-02
Volume
164
Issue
3-4
ISSN
  • 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-1480
DOI
10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w
OpenAlex
W3133385722
Cited by
134
References
94
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 9
FWCI
37.07
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (cc-by)
Funders
  • The General Sir John Monash Foundation
  • The Cambridge Trust
  • UK FIRES (EP/S019111/1)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural Studies
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Keywords
climate change, food insecurity, societal collapse, existential risk, causal loop diagrams, causal pathways, agricultural systems, food supply disruption, economic shocks, socio-political instability, migration, conflict, starvation, complex systems modeling

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