Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis
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Homer-Dixon, T., B. Walker, R. Biggs, A.-S. Crépin, C. Folke, E. F. Lambin, G. D. Peterson, J. Rockström, M. Scheffer, W. Steffen, and M. Troell. 2015. Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis. Ecology and Society 20(3): 6. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07681-200306
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Tight coupling of systems makes failure spillover and synchronous failures more likely.
“It makes it far more likely that the failure of one system will spillover into another, sparking non-linear feedback loops that result in 'synchronous failures' (Homer-Dixon et al., 2015).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Homer-Dixon et al., 2015
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Deutsch, K. W. (1954) · Harvard University Press eBooks · doi:10.4159/harvard.9780674332621.c24 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Searchinger, T., & Heimlich, R. E. (2015) · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Climate Impacts on Agriculture: A Challenge to Complacency?Preprint
Ackerman, F., & Stanton, E. A. (2013) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.179109 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Juvenal, L., & Petrella, I. (2012) · Economic Synopses · doi:10.20955/es.2012.8 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The Price of Oil – Will it Start Rising Again?
Fournier, J.-M., Koske, I., Wanner, I., et al. (2013) · OECD Economics Department working papers · doi:10.1787/5k49q186vxnp-en · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility
Berry, S., Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2012) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w18659 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
US electrical grid on the edge of failure
Tollefson, J. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature.2013.13598 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
The Processes of Change of Social Systems
(2013) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203992951-18 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 7
- Fuglie, K. 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy: evidence from FAO data. Pages 63-91 in J.
- Kent, R. 2011. Disaster risk reduction and changing dimensions and dynamics of future drivers. Chapter 2 in G. Williams. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2011, contributing papers. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland. [online] URL: http://www. preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs/Kent_2010a. pdf
- Pamlin, D., and S. Armstrong. 2015. Global challenges: 12 risks that threaten human civilization. Global Challenges Foundation, Oxford, UK.
- Scheffer, M. 2009. Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
- Simon, J. 1998. The ultimate resource II: people, materials, and environment. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
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- World Economic Forum (WEF). 2012. Global risks 2012. Seventh edition. World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland. Ecology and Society 20(3): 6 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss3/art6/ World Food Programme (WFP). 2009. World hunger series: hunger and markets. Routledge, London, UK. [online] URL: http://home.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/communications/ wfp200279.pdf
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem
Nyström, M., Jouffray, J.-B., Norström, A. V., Crona, B., Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Carpenter, S. R., Bodin, Ö., Galaz, V., & Folke, C. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1712-3 · Cited by 343 · see citing works
Self-citationKeys, P. W., Galaz, V., Dyer, M., Matthews, N., Folke, C., Nyström, M., & Cornell, S. E. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0327-x · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Self-citationBina, O., Inch, A., & Pereira, L. (2020) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102475 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Richards, C. E., Lupton, R. C., & Allwood, J. M. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-02957-w · Cited by 134 · see citing works
A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk
Tang, A., & Kemp, L. (2021) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.720312 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
“Systemic risk focuses on how structural conditions and multiple small stressors can lead to widespread collapse or synchronous, reinforcing failures (Homer-Dixon et al., 2015).”
Background
- Authors
- Homer-Dixon, T., Walker, B., Biggs, R., Crépin, A.-S., Folke, C., Lambin, E. F., Peterson, G. D., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Steffen, W., & Troell, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Waterloo (CA)
- CSIRO Land and Water (AU)
- Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE)
- Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (SE)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Australian National University (AU)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Ecology and Society
- Publisher
- Resilience Alliance, Inc.
- Published
- 2015
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 3
- ISSN
- 1708-3087 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2279399700
- Cited by
- 244
- References
- 121
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 2 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 14.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Ecology and Society (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Digital Access to Libraries (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural Studies
- Keywords
- global crisis, causal architecture, tipping points, ecological thresholds, global change, social-ecological systems
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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