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The Growth, Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010
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The steep rise in U.S. criminal punishment in recent decades has spurred scholarship on the collateral consequences of imprisonment for individuals, families, and communities. Several excellent studies have estimated the number of people who have been incarcerated and the collateral consequences they face, but far less is known about the size and scope of the total U.S. population with felony convictions beyond prison walls, including those who serve their sentences on probation or in jail. This article develops state-level estimates based on demographic life tables and extends previous national estimates of the number of people with felony convictions to 2010. We estimate that 3 % of the total U.S. adult population and 15 % of the African American adult male population has ever been to prison; people with felony convictions account for 8 % of all adults and 33 % of the African American adult male population. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of the spatial concentration and immense growth of these groups since 1980.
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“The results are staggering; more than nineteen million people in the United States carry the burden of a felony conviction.”
From The Rise of the Carceral State: Foundations and Contours of a Rapidly Changing Criminal Legal System (2025) · cites this paper as Shannon et al. 2017
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“This is emboldened by the fact that of the 8% of American adults with felony convictions, Black men comprise 33% of them (Shannon et al., 2017).”
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“adult population has a felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017).”
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“More than one million individuals are currently held in state or federal prisons in the United States (Carson, 2021), with millions more formerly imprisoned (Shannon et al. , 2017).”
Beyond the Penal Code: The Legal Capacity of Monetary Sanctions in the Corpus of California Law
Verma, A., & Sykes, B. L. (2022) · RSF · doi:10.7758/rsf.2022.8.1.02 · Cited by 10
“Third, there are racial disparities in felony arrests and convictions for possession of a controlled substance (Mooney et al. 2018; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundLegal Civic Orders and Equitable Lived Citizenships
Smith, R. M. (2021) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s000305542100068x · Cited by 11
“38 Though not explicitly provided for in the U.S. Code, dual citizenship is recognized in, e.g., Title 26, Subtitle F, Chapter 79, §7701(a)50 (B). population, or over 26 million people (Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundMcCauley, E. J. (2021) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113718 · Cited by 10
Support seeking, system avoidance, and citizenship: Social safety net usage after incarceration
Bryan, B. (2023) · Criminology · doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12351 · Cited by 11
“…individuals—who now represent more than 2 percent of the total adult U.S. population and almost 7 percent of the adult African American population (Shannon et al., 2017)—face severe financial hardship in the years, and for some, decades, after their release (Bryan, 2019; Harding et al., 2014;…”
McKay, T. E. (2022) · Journal of Interpersonal Violence · doi:10.1177/08862605221106141 · Cited by 12
Schnittker, J., Larimore, S., & Lee, H. E. (2020) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113288 · Cited by 11
Self-citationPublic perceptions of felon-juror exclusion: An exploratory study
Binnall, J. M., & Petersen, N. (2020) · Criminology & Criminal Justice · doi:10.1177/1748895819898518 · Cited by 9
Is it disqualifying? Practitioner responses to criminal offenses in hiring decisions
Kuhn, K. M. (2019) · Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal · doi:10.1108/edi-10-2018-0182 · Cited by 9
The contingent effect of incarceration on state health outcomes
Uggen, C., Schnittker, J., Shannon, S. K. S., & Massoglia, M. (2012) · SSM: Population Health · doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101322 · Cited by 9
Self-citationCriminal Record Stigma in the Labor Market for College Graduates: A Mixed Methods Study
Cerda-Jara, M., & Harding, D. J. (2024) · Sociological Science · doi:10.15195/v11.a2 · Cited by 9
“Between 70 million and 100 million Americans have a criminal record (almost one-third of the country’s population), and eight percent of all adults have a felony record (Vallas and Dietrich 2014; Shannon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundFrom victimhood to victim could : Hypothetical injury and the ‘criminalization’ of Donald Trump
Higgins, K. C. (2025) · European Journal of Cultural Studies · doi:10.1177/13675494251345268 · Cited by 9
“The convictions have added Trump to the ranks of the approximately 19 million US citizens with prior felony convictions (Prison Policy Initiative, 2020), among whom African American men are significantly overrepresented (see Shannon et al., 2017).”
Racial Equity in Eligibility for a Clean Slate under Automatic Criminal Record Relief LawsPreprint
Mooney, A. C., Skog, A., & Lerman, A. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4137869 · Cited by 8
“The Plurality of Perspectives on Monetary Sanctions”: An Introductory Essay
Martin, K. D. (2020) · Sociological Perspectives · doi:10.1177/0731121420970676 · Cited by 8
Mooney, A. C., Neilands, T. B., Giannella, E., Morris, M. D., Tulsky, J. P., & Glymour, M. M. (2019) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.03.010 · Cited by 7
Handbook on the Consequences of Sentencing and Punishment Decisions
Huebner, B. M., & Frost, N. A. (2018) · doi:10.4324/9780429466380 · Cited by 8
“An additional 5 million people previously served time in prison and 20 million people in the U.S. have a felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017; see also Muller & Wildeman, 2016).”
BackgroundBerg, M. T., Riley, K., Lei, M.-K., & Simons, R. L. (2024) · Journal of Aging and Health · doi:10.1177/08982643241257065 · Cited by 7
“In fact, recent estimates suggest that more than two million individuals in the United States are incarcerated and nearly fi ve million were formerly in prison or on parole (Shannon et al., 2017).”
A raceless legal psychology in a system marked by race
Gonzales, R. M., & Plaut, V. C. (2024) · Journal of Social Issues · doi:10.1111/josi.12605 · Cited by 10
Criminal Justice Reform and Inequality
Wakefield, S. (2022) · American Journal of Criminal Justice · doi:10.1007/s12103-022-09717-1 · Cited by 7
“…to police surveillance and violence (Edwards et al., 2021; Geller & Fagan, 2019) and arrest (Brame et al., 2014) to misdemeanor (Kohler-Hausmann, 2013) and felony conviction (Shannon et al., 2017) and incarceration (Pettit & Western, 2004), stark disparities are entrenched and well-documented.”
BackgroundSelf-citationCumulative Risks of Multiple Criminal Justice Outcomes in New York City
Hepburn, P., Kohler‐Hausmann, I., & Medina, A. Z. (2019) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-019-00781-7 · Cited by 11
Calculating the posterior odds from a single-match DNA database search
Wixted, J., Christenfeld, N., & Rouder, J. N. (2019) · Law, Probability and Risk · doi:10.1093/lpr/mgz001 · Cited by 7
“For example, Shannon et al. (2017) estimated the size of the U.S. criminal population at 19.8 million (6% of the current U.S. population) as of 2010 based on the number of people who have ever been convicted of a felony, whether or not they served time in prison.”
BackgroundInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Shannon, S. K. S., Uggen, C., Schnittker, J., Thompson, M., Wakefield, S., & Massoglia, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Georgia (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Portland State University (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shannon, Sarah K. S.
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2017-09-11
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1795-1818
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- PMC
- PMC5996985
- OpenAlex
- W2755233168
- Cited by
- 356
- References
- 87
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 75 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 88.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- PDXScholar (Portland State University) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD047873, P2CHD041023)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- felony conviction, prison population, incarceration rates, state-level estimates, African American men, racial disparities in incarceration, criminal justice policy
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Black or African American, Crime, Demography, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Prisoners, Prisons, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Life Tables, Databases, Factual, Geographic Information Systems, Racial Groups, Young Adult, Criminals, Spatial Analysis
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