Cited by 934Policing Practices and PerceptionsCriminal Justice and Corrections AnalysisRacial and Ethnic Identity Research

Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex

Open access
Edwards, Frank, Lee, Hedwig, Esposito, Michael·2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Published version of a preprint

Abstract

We use data on police-involved deaths to estimate how the risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States varies across social groups. We estimate the lifetime and age-specific risks of being killed by police by race and sex. We also provide estimates of the proportion of all deaths accounted for by police use of force. We find that African American men and women, American Indian/Alaska Native men and women, and Latino men face higher lifetime risk of being killed by police than do their white peers. We find that Latina women and Asian/Pacific Islander men and women face lower risk of being killed by police than do their white peers. Risk is highest for black men, who (at current levels of risk) face about a 1 in 1,000 chance of being killed by police over the life course. The average lifetime odds of being killed by police are about 1 in 2,000 for men and about 1 in 33,000 for women. Risk peaks between the ages of 20 y and 35 y for all groups. For young men of color, police use of force is among the leading causes of death.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1821204116

Cites

58 of 58 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

5 of 25 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Unofficial media-based methods provide more comprehensive information on police violence than the limited official data currently available.

    “Unofficial media-based methods provide more comprehensive information on police violence than do the limited official data currently available (4,33,34).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4] 4. N. Krieger, J. T. Chen, P. D. Waterman, M. V. Kiang, J. Feldman, Police killings and police deaths are public health data and can be counted. PLoS Med. 12, e1001915 (2015). source
    • cites [33] 33. J. M. Feldman, S. Gruskin, B. A. Coull, N. Krieger, Quantifying underreporting of law- enforcement-related deaths in United States vital statistics and news-media-based data sources: A capture -recapture analysis. PLoS Med. 14, e1002399 (2017). source

      The Conclusions and the section ‘Estimates of the number of US law-enforcement-related deaths in 2015’ show that the media-based source The Counted recorded substantially more law-enforcement-related deaths than the official NVSS. The paper studies deaths, however, not police violence generally or nonfatal incidents, so it supports the comparison only for fatal cases. Page numbers were not supplied in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [34] 34. J. M. Feldman, S. Gruskin, B. A. Coull, N. Krieger, Killed by police: Validity of media- based data and misclassification of death certificates in Massachusetts, 2004-2016. source
  • Premisecitation
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    People of color, especially African Americans, are at greater risk for experiencing criminal justice contact and police-involved harm than whites.

    “While a substantial body of evidence shows that people of color, especially African Americans, are at greater risk for experiencing criminal justice contact and police-involved harm than are whites (14-19)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 6 sources checked
    • cites [14] 14. R. Kramer, B. Remster, Stop, frisk, and assault? Racial disparities in police use of force during investigatory stops. Law Soc. Rev. 52, 960-993 (2018). source
    • cites [15] 15. R. Brame, M. G. Turner, R. Paternoster, S. D. Bushway, Cumulative prevalence of arrest from ages 8 to 23 in a national sample. Pediatrics 129, 21-27 (2012). source
    • cites [16] 16. B. Pettit, B. Western, Mass imprisonment and the life course: Race and class inequality in U.S. incarceration. Am. Sociol. Rev. 69, 151-169 (2004). source
    • cites [17] 17. F. Edwards, M. H. Esposito, H. Lee, Risk of police-involved death by race/ethnicity and place, United States, 2012 -2018. Am. J. Public Health 108, 1241-1248 (2018). source

      The Abstract says people of color face greater police-involved harm than White people and reports higher police-homicide risk for Black and Latino men than for White men. The paper does not establish the separate claim that people of color face greater risk of criminal justice contact generally. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [18] 18. A. C. Mooney, S. McConville, A. J. Rappaport, R. Y. Hsia, Association of legal inter- vention injuries with race and ethnicity among patients treated in emergency departments in California. JAMA Network Open 1, e182150-e182150 (2018). source

      The Results report substantially more legal-intervention injuries per capita among Black than white individuals, and the Discussion links much of that difference to higher arrest rates among Black individuals. The paper does not establish greater criminal-justice contact and police-involved harm for people of color generally: it reports substantially lower injury rates for Asian/Pacific Islander individuals and lower injuries per arrest for Hispanic individuals than for white individuals. Its injury findings concern California emergency-department patients, not all forms of police-involved harm. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [19] 19. D. Knox, W. Lowe, J. Mummolo, The bias is built in: How administrative records mask racially biased policing. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3336338 (April 26, 2019). source
  • Findingown data

    Black women are about 1.4 times more likely to be killed by police than white women.

    “Black women are about 1.4 times more likely to be killed by police than are white women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.
  • Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    For young men of color, police use of force is among the leading causes of death.

    “For young men of color, police use of force is among the leading causes of death.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “This ranks police use of force as one of the leading causes of death for young men.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    The risk of being killed by police peaks between ages 20 and 35 for all groups.

    “Risk peaks between the ages of 20 y and 35 y for all groups.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Risk for all groups peaks between the ages of 20 y and 35 y and declines with age.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 12
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 4
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The methods may mask important subnational variation and changes in risk over time.

    “While the methods used in this paper allow for nationally precise age-, race-, and gender-specific mortality estimates, they may mask important subnational variation and changes in risk over time (17,36).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] 17. F. Edwards, M. H. Esposito, H. Lee, Risk of police-involved death by race/ethnicity and place, United States, 2012 -2018. Am. J. Public Health 108, 1241-1248 (2018). source

      The Methods acknowledge that states grouped within the same Census division differ, supporting the concern that geographic grouping may obscure subnational variation. The paper uses data spanning 2012 to early 2018, but the passages do not assess changes in risk over time or say that the methods mask them. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [36] 36. R. E Morgan, G. Kena, Criminal victimization, 2016 (NCJ, 251150, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington, DC, 2017).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    Black men have the highest lifetime risk among the groups studied, about 1 in 1,000 over the life course.

    “Risk is highest for black men, who (at current levels of risk) face about a 1 in 1,000 chance of being killed by police over the life course.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Among all groups, black men and boys face the highest lifetime risk of being killed by police.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · hedged
      “Our models predict that about 1 in 1,000 black men and boys will be killed by police over the life course (96 [77, 120] per 100,000).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    African American men and women, American Indian/Alaska Native men and women, and Latino men have a higher lifetime risk of being killed by police than their white peers.

    “We find that African American men and women, American Indian/Alaska Native men and women, and Latino men face higher lifetime risk of being killed by police than do their white peers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    The average lifetime odds of being killed by police are about 1 in 2,000 for men and about 1 in 33,000 for women.

    “The average lifetime odds of being killed by police are about 1 in 2,000 for men and about 1 in 33,000 for women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race-ethnicity, and sex

    Latina women and Asian/Pacific Islander men and women have a lower lifetime risk of being killed by police than their white peers.

    “We find that Latina women and Asian/Pacific Islander men and women face lower risk of being killed by police than do their white peers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    At 2013-2018 risk levels, about 52 [39,68] per 100,000 men and boys and about 3 [1.5,4.5] per 100,000 women and girls in the United States will be killed by police over the life course.

    “We estimate that over the life course, at levels of risk similar to those observed between 2013 and 2018, about 52 [39,68] (90% uncertainty interval) of every 100,000 men and boys in the United States will be killed by police use of force over the life course, and about 3 [1.5, 4.5] of every 100,000 women and girls will be killed by police over the life course.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The ratio of police use-of-force deaths to all deaths is strongly correlated with age and race and is starkly unequal across racial groups.

    “However, this ratio is strongly correlated with age and race and is starkly unequal across racial groups.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingnone given

    For women ages 20-24, police use of force is responsible for 0.16% of all deaths of Latina women.

    “0.16% of all deaths of Latina women”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Asian/Pacific Islander men and women are more than 50% less likely to be killed by police than white men and women, respectively.

    “Both Asian/Pacific Islander men and women are more than 50% less likely to be killed by police than are white men and women, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Police use of force accounts for 0.05% of all male deaths and 0.003% of all female deaths in the United States.

    “Police use of force accounts for 0.05% of all male deaths in the United States and 0.003% of all female deaths”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingnone given

    For women ages 20-24, police use of force is responsible for 0.11% of all deaths of white women.

    “0.11% of all deaths of white women.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Racially unequal exposure to the risk of state violence has profound consequences for public health, democracy, and racial stratification.

    “Racially unequal exposure to the risk of state violence has profound consequences for public health, democracy, and racial stratification (5,(7)(8)(9)11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites (5,(7)(8)(9)11)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Prior research suggests that despite high contemporary rates, the risk of being killed by police was higher in decades past.

    “Prior research suggests that despite high contemporary rates, the risk of being killed by police was higher in decades past (37).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [37] 37. C. T. Ross, A multi-level Bayesian analysis of racial bias in police shootings at the county-level in the United States, 2011 -2014. PLoS One 10, e0141854 (2015). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The meaning of race, age, and gender for police violence emerges in interactions between how officers perceive an individual's identity and the salience of these classifications for perceptions of criminality, belonging, and dangerousness.

    “The meaning of race, age, and gender for police violence emerges in the interactions between how officers perceive an individual's identity and the salience of these classifications for perceptions of criminality, belonging, and dangerousness (1,10,25,39).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [1] 1. S. Alang, D. McAlpine, E. McCreedy, R. Hardeman, Police brutality and black health: Setting the agenda for public health scholars. Am. J. Public Health 107, 662-665 (2017). source
    • cites [10] 10. K. G. Muhammad, The Condemnation of Blackness: Race, Crime, and the Making of Modern Urban America (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2011). source
    • cites [25] 25. J. Legewie, M. Schaeffer, Contested boundaries: Explaining where ethnoracial diversity provokes neighborhood conflict. Am. J. Sociol. 122, 125-161 (2016). source
    • cites [39] 39. E. P. Monk, The cost of color: Skin color, discrimination, and health among African- Americans. Am. J. Sociol. 121, 396-444 (2015). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Austerity in social welfare and public health programs has led to police and prisons becoming catchall responses to social problems.

    “Austerity in social welfare and public health programs has led to police and prisons becoming catchall responses to social problems (43,44).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [43] 43. L. W. Sherman, Reducing fatal police shootings as system crashes: Research, theory, and practice. Annu. Rev. Criminol. 1, 421-449 (2018).
    • cites [44] 44. R. Gilmore, Golden Gulag: Prisons, Surplus, Crisis, and Opposition in Globalizing California (University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, 2007).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Police violence is a leading cause of death for young men, and young men of color face exceptionally high risk of being killed by police.

    “Police violence is a leading cause of death for young men, and young men of color face exceptionally high risk of being killed by police.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Fatal Encounters provides more comprehensive data on police-involved deaths than official mortality files, has broader scope than similar unofficial efforts, and has been endorsed as a sound source by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

    “FE provides more comprehensive data on police-involved deaths than do official mortality files (34), has a broader scope than similar unofficial efforts to document deaths, and has been endorsed as a sound source of data by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (47).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [34] 34. J. M. Feldman, S. Gruskin, B. A. Coull, N. Krieger, Killed by police: Validity of media- based data and misclassification of death certificates in Massachusetts, 2004-2016. source
    • cites [47] 47. National Center for Health Statistics, Multiple cause of death data, 2000 -2017. https://www.nber.org/data/vital-statistics-mortality-data-multiple-cause-of-death. html. Accessed 25 January 2019.
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Listwise deletion of missing cases unrealistically understates uncertainty in parameter estimates and negatively biases mortality risk estimates.

    “List- wise deletion of missing cases unrealistically understates uncertainty in our parameter estimates and negatively biases mortality risk estimates (SI Appendix, Fig. S8).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
18 of 18
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed 2013–2018 levels throughout the life course.

    “with the central assumption that risk profiles observed between 2013 and 2018 remain stable”
    “with the key assumption that underlying age-specific mortality risks remain constant at observed levels throughout the life course”
1 of 1

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • If the pattern of Black victims being more likely to survive holds nationwide, then racial disparities in police use of deadly force have been underestimated based on the racial makeup of the population.

    “If this pattern holds true nationwide, it means we have underestimated the extent of racial disparities in police use of deadly force based on the racial makeup of the population [2, 3, 26].”

    From Factors associated with police shooting mortality: A focus on race and a plea for more comprehensive data (2021) · cites this paper as [26]

    The Research Strategy and Key Findings section reports national racial disparities in deaths from police use of force. It focuses exclusively on deaths, however, and does not assess whether Black victims are more likely to survive or whether survival differences would mean that disparities have been underestimated. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Prior research suggests the risk of being killed by police is highest for all racial groups between ages 20 and 35.

    “Prior research suggests the risk of being killed by police is highest for all racial groups between the ages of 20 and 35 [26].”
  • The evidence is mixed as to whether CITs are effective at preventing police violence.

    “The evidence is mixed as to whether CITs are effective at preventing police violence (80, 81).”

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. J. Soss, V. Weaver, Learning from Ferguson: Policing, race, and class in American politics. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 20, 565–591 (2017).
  2. A. S. Vitale, The End of Policing (Verso Books, New York, NY, 2017).
  3. T. Y. Rocha Beardall “Transactional policing: Reframing local police-community relations through the lens of police employment ” PhD thesis Cornell University Ithaca NY (2019).

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Edwards, F., Lee, H., & Esposito, M.
Affiliations
  • Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
  • Washington University in St. Louis (US)
  • University of Michigan (US)
Corresponding author
Edwards, Frank
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2019-08-05
Volume
116
Issue
34
Pages
16793-16798
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W2965198355
Cited by
916
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 108 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 113 · 2023: 151 · 2022: 188 · 2021: 161 · 2020: 85 · 2019: 7
FWCI
467.55
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Racial and Ethnic Identity Research
Keywords
police use of force, racial disparities, age-specific risk, sex differences, African American men, Hispanic men, Hispanic women, young men of color, causes of death
MeSH terms
Adult, Death, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Male, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Police, Racial Groups, Young Adult

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-09-29.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-09-29.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review