How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030?
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Most model studies assume an increase in feed-to-food conversion efficiency rates and hence a lower relative future demand for feed.
“This deviates from most model studies, which assume an increase in feed-to-food conversion efficiency rates 44 and hence a lower relative future demand for feed.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [44]
Cites
Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices
Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., & Polasky, S. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01014 · Cited by 7,957 · see citing works
Livestock's long shadow: environmental issues and options.
Steinfeld, H., Gerber, P., Wassenaar, T., Castel, V., Rosales, M., & de Haan, C. (2006) · Agritrop (Cirad) · Cited by 4,383 · see citing works
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152747 · Cited by 3,902 · see citing works
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Sadler, B., & Dalal-Clayton, B. (2012) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781849772631-19 · Cited by 2,621 · see citing works
Energy and protein requirements*
Pacey, A., & Payne, P. (2019) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780429036279-4 · Cited by 2,545 · see citing works
Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature
Green, R. E., Cornell, S. J., Scharlemann, J. P. W., & Balmford, A. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1106049 · Cited by 2,238 · see citing works
Energy and protein requirements : report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation
Fao, J., Energy, U. E. C. O., & Requirements, P. (1985) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,857 · see citing works
Cassman, K. G. (1999) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.96.11.5952 · Cited by 1,458 · see citing works
(2002) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,279 · see citing works
Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification
Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J., & Lobell, D. B. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0914216107 · Cited by 1,128 · see citing works
Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2005
SKOLNIK, N., & King, M. (2005) · Family Practice News · doi:10.1016/s0300-7073(05)71075-6 · Cited by 1,071 · see citing works
Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality
Cassman, K. G., Dobermann, A., Walters, D. T., & Yang, H. S. (2003) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.040202.122858 · Cited by 1,035 · see citing works
Reaping the Benefits: Science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture
Davies, B., Baulcombe, D. C., Crute, I. R., Dunwell, J. M., Gale, M., Jones, J., Pretty, J., Sutherland, W. J., & Toulmin, C. (2009) · Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) · Cited by 888 · see citing works
Climate benefits of changing diet
Stehfest, E., Bouwman, L., van Vuuren, D. P., den Elzen, M. G. J., Eickhout, B., & Kabat, P. (2009) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6 · Cited by 815 · see citing works
Estimating and Addressing America's Food Losses
Kantor, L. S., Lipton, K., Manchester, A., Oliveira, V., Kantor, L. S., Lipton, K., Manchester, A., & Oliveira, V. (1997) · Unknown · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.234453 · Cited by 491 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Studies addressing food wastage at the household and retail level are few, examples include Bender (1994), Kantor et al. (1997), Engström and Carlsson-Kanyama (2004) and WRAP (2008).”
BackgroundBalmford, A. P., Green, R. E., & Scharlemann, J. P. W. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001035.x · Cited by 376 · see citing works
Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems
Bouwman, L., van der Hoek, K. W., Eickhout, B., & Soenario, I. (2004) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2004.05.006 · Cited by 368 · see citing works
Food and life cycle energy inputs: consequences of diet and ways to increase efficiency
Carlsson‐Kanyama, A., Ekström, M. P., & Shanahan, H. (2003) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/s0921-8009(02)00261-6 · Cited by 367 · see citing works
Food losses in food service institutions Examples from Sweden
Engström, R., & Carlsson-Kanyama, A. (2004) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2004.03.004 · Cited by 311 · see citing works
Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food
Gerbens-Leenes, P. W., & Nonhebel, S. (2002) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/s0921-8009(02)00049-6 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
The World Food Situation New Driving Forces and Required Actions
(2007) · International Food Policy Research Institute eBooks · doi:10.2499/089629532x · Cited by 288 · see citing works
Greenhouse gas taxes on animal food products: rationale, tax scheme and climate mitigation effects
Wirsenius, S., Hedenus, F., & Mohlin, K. (2010) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9971-x · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Self-citationEconomic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation
Schneider, U. A., & McCarl, B. A. (2003) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1023/a:1023632309097 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
Smil, V. (2002) · Enzyme and Microbial Technology · doi:10.1016/s0141-0229(01)00504-x · Cited by 229 · see citing works
A scenario based analysis of land competition between food and bioenergy production in the US
Johansson, D. J. A., & Azar, C. (2007) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9208-1 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Self-citationDiet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?
Keyzer, M. A., Merbis, M. D., Pavel, I. F. P. W., & van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A. (2005) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.12.002 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Protein consumption and sustainability: Diet diversity in EU-15
de Boer, J., Helms, M., & Aiking, H. (2005) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.10.011 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Human Use of Land and Organic Materials: Modeling the Turnover of Biomass in the Global Food System
Wirsenius, S. (2000) · Chalmers Publication Library (Chalmers University of Technology) · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Self-citationThe world food situation: New driving forces and required actionsPreprint
von Braun, J., & Von Braun, J. (2007) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.55645 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets
Tokgöz, S., Elobeid, A. E., Fabiosa, J. F., et al. (2007) · AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA) · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.10009 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Cereal Crop Productivity in Developing Countries: Past Trends and Future ProspectsPreprint
Pingali, P., Heisey, P. W., Pingali, P. L., et al. (1999) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.7682 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Animal Agriculture and Global Food Supply
Oltjen, J. W. (2006) · Recent Advances in Animal Nutrition · doi:10.5661/recadv-05-371 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Variations in land requirements for meat production
Elferink, E., & Nonhebel, S. (2006) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2006.04.003 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Wirsenius, S. (2003) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1162/108819803766729195 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Self-citationEfficiencies and biomass appropriation of food commodities on global and regional levels
Wirsenius, S. (2003) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(02)00188-9 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-citationHow much land can ten billion people spare for nature? Does technology make a difference?
Waggoner, P. E. (1995) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/0160-791x(94)00024-8 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Saving Habitat and Conserving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet
Goklany, I. M. (1998) · BioScience · doi:10.2307/1313298 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Modeling of global biomass policies
Gielen, D. J., Fujino, J., Hashimoto, S., & Moriguchi, Y. (2003) · Biomass and Bioenergy · doi:10.1016/s0961-9534(02)00188-5 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Gitz, V., & Ciais, P. (2004) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-004-0065-5 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Responses to technology and taxes in a simulated world
van Vuuren, D. P., de Vries, B., Eickhout, B., et al. (2004) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2004.04.027 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Policy, technology, and management strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural intensification
Lee, D. R., Barrett, C. B., & McPeak, J. G. (2006) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1574-0864.2006.00112.x · Cited by 52 · see citing works
China's Livestock and Related Agriculture: Projections to 2025
Simpson, J. R., Cheng, X. L., & Miyazaki, A. (1994) · Cited by 48 · see citing works
An End-Use Analysis of Global Food Requirements
Bender, W. H. (1996) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-61086-8_22 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
An end use analysis of global food requirements
Bender, W. H. (1994) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/0306-9192(94)90084-1 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
The great reversal: nature's chance to restore land and sea
Ausubel, J. H. (2000) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/s0160-791x(00)00014-2 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Agricultural Intensification and Sustainability
Evans, L. T. (2003) · Outlook on Agriculture · doi:10.5367/000000003101294316 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity
Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1100480108 · Cited by 3,160 · see citing works
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339 · see citing works
Herrero, M., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Notenbaert, A., Rufino, M. C., Thornton, P. K., Blümmel, M., Weiss, F., Grace, D., & Obersteiner, M. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1308149110 · Cited by 1,254 · see citing works
Livestock: On our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate
Mottet, A., de Haan, C., Falcucci, A., Tempio, G., Opio, C., & Gerber, P. (2017) · Global Food Security · doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2017.01.001 · Cited by 1,034 · see citing works
Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N. H., Berndes, G., Bolwig, S., Bright, R., Cherubini, F., Chum, H., Corbera, E., Delucchi, M., Faaij, A., et al. (2015) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12205 · Cited by 752 · see citing works
Self-citationRedefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare
Cassidy, E. S., West, P. C., Gerber, J. S., & Foley, J. A. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034015 · Cited by 673 · see citing works
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system
Alexander, P., Brown, C., Arneth, A., Finnigan, J., Moran, D., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2017) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.014 · Cited by 524 · see citing works
Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption
Van Zanten, H. H. E., Herrero, M., Van Hal, O., Röös, E., Muller, A., Garnett, T., Gerber, P. J., Schader, C., & De Boer, I. J. M. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14321 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
Don, A., Osborne, B., Hastings, A., Skiba, U., Carter, M. S., Drewer, J., Flessa, H., Freibauer, A., Hyvönen, N., Jones, M. B., et al. (2012) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01116.x · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century
Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Weindl, I., Popp, A., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0139201 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Van Kernebeek, H. R. J., Oosting, S. J., Van Ittersum, M. K., Bikker, P., & De Boer, I. J. M. (2016) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-015-0923-6 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
da Silva Dias, J. C. (2015) · Molecular Approaches to Genetic Diversity · doi:10.5772/60080 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
- Authors
- Wirsenius, S., Azar, C., & Berndes, G.
- Affiliations
- Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Wirsenius, Stefan
- Venue
- Agricultural Systems
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-11
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 621-638
- ISSN
- 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2167775975
- Cited by
- 405
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 37 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 21.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Chalmers Publication Library (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Carl Bennet AB
- Energimyndigheten
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Keywords
- food demand projections, dietary change, livestock productivity, food waste, vegetarian diet, agricultural expansion, 2030 scenarios, food system modelling
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review