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Cited by 161Optimal Power Flow DistributionElectric Vehicles and InfrastructureIntegrated Energy Systems Optimization

Spatial analysis of distribution grid capacity and costs to enable massive deployment of PV, electric mobility and electric heating

Open access
Gupta, Ruchi, Pena-Bello, Alejandro, Streicher, Kai Nino, Roduner, Cattia, Farhat, Yamshid, Thöni, David, Patel, Martin Kumar, Parra, David·2021·Applied Energy
DOI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116504
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Abstract

Rapid deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV), electric heat pumps (HP) and electric vehicles (EV) is needed to decarbonize the economy. However, the integration of these technologies into the power system creates challenges for the distribution grid infrastructure. It is therefore vital to analyse to which extent grid reinforcement is needed to enable decarbonization strategies while also studying alternative flexibility measures. In this GIS-based study, we model the impact of the deployment of PV, HP and EV on a low-voltage distribution grid network serving 170’000 households in Switzerland, and analyse scenarios for their penetration in the years 2035 and 2050. Using a detailed grid model in collaboration with a distribution system operator, we find that PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV respectively, which on the other hand, cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively. We also find that grid reinforcement costs markedly depend on the type of urban setting ranging between 51–213 CHF/kWp, 46–1’385 CHF/kW and 34–143 CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV, respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas. The total distribution grid reinforcement costs can amount up to 11 billion CHF until 2050 i.e. 2’900 CHF per household in Switzerland. Interestingly, we find that batteries, even with current costs, have the potential to defer grid reinforcement for up to 15% of the transformer stations with the highest specific grid reinforcement costs. Our study aims to inform various stakeholders about the required grid investments to enable the massive deployment of low carbon technologies.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This GIS-based study models PV, heat pump (HP), and EV deployment on a low-voltage distribution grid serving 170,000 Swiss households in 2035 and 2050, using scenarios and detailed DSO grid modeling. It finds PV drives more voltage violations while HP/EV drive more line overloading, and estimates substantial grid reinforcement costs that vary by urban setting and can reach 11 billion CHF nationally by 2050, with batteries able to defer some reinforcement.

Key findings

  • PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV, respectively; HP and EV cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
  • Specific grid reinforcement costs range from 51–213 CHF/kWp for PV, 46–1,385 CHF/kW for HP, and 34–143 CHF/kW for EV, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.
  • Total distribution grid reinforcement costs can amount to up to 11 billion CHF until 2050, i.e. about 2,900 CHF per household in Switzerland; in 2035 the heroic scenario totals 5.4B CHF, or around 1,440 CHF per household.
  • Batteries, even with current costs, can defer grid reinforcement for up to 15% of transformer stations with the highest specific grid reinforcement costs; for determined and aggressive PV scenarios this drops to 5%.

Methods

  • GIS-based modeling of rooftop PV, residential HP, and EV charging deployment in a real DSO supply area of 170,000 households (population 379,100), with least, determined, aggressive, and heroic effort scenarios for 2035 and 2050.
  • A detailed low-voltage distribution grid model from DSO BKW runs load flow calculations to identify voltage violations, line overloading, and transformer overloading, then applies iterative reinforcement using empirical DSO costs.
  • Regression analysis relates installed technology capacity to grid reinforcement costs, results are upscaled to Switzerland, and battery storage is compared with grid reinforcement using NPV over a 15-year deferral period.

Limitations

  • Stated: the model assumes capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once; in reality incremental additions across the transition could lead to higher cumulative reinforcement costs.
  • Stated: reinforcement costs are average values that vary by project and local circumstances; the study excludes building retrofits (which can reduce HP peak load by 42–73%) and demand-side flexibility, so costs represent extreme cases without behind-the-meter flexibility.
  • Stated/evident: the analysis focuses only on the low-voltage grid, and national upscaling assumes specific costs per urban setting from the DSO supply area are representative for the rest of Switzerland, which the paper calls a strong assumption; future work should include medium/high-voltage levels.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116504

Cites

54 of 54 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

7 of 32 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    HP and EV increase peak electricity demand.

    “The use of HP and EV, on the other hand, increases the peak electricity demand [14].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Rüdisüli, 2019, Impacts of an increased substitution of fossil energy carriers with electricity-based technologies on the swiss electricity system, Energies source
  • Premisecitation

    Once hosting capacity is reached, upgrading or rebuilding transformer stations and reinforcement of lines will be needed.

    “However, once the hosting capacity is reached after continued technology additions, upgrading or even a complete rebuilding of the existing transformer stations (also known as 'secondary substations') and reinforcement of the lines will be needed [3,22,26,27].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim3 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [3] Pudjianto, 2013, Smart control for minimizing distribution network reinforcement cost due to electrification, Energy Policy source

      Section 4 says that accommodating future loads can require distribution-network reinforcement, depending on equipment thermal ratings and voltage constraints. The network-design passage considers transformer and cable ratings, but our copy does not say that reaching a hosting-capacity threshold necessarily requires upgrading or completely rebuilding secondary substations; Section 5 also describes smart control as an alternative to reinforcement. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [22] Ismael, 2019, State-of-the-art of hosting capacity in modern power systems with distributed generation, Renew Energy source

      Section 5.5 (page unavailable) describes network reinforcement and feeder upgrades as ways to increase hosting capacity. It does not say that reaching hosting capacity necessarily requires line reinforcement or upgrading or rebuilding transformer stations; Section 5 also describes other enhancement techniques. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [26] IEA ETSAP, 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [27] Nykamp, 2012, Integration of heat pumps in distribution grids: Economic motivation for grid control source

      The available indexed passages are bibliographic metadata (one labeled Abstract, with no page number); they do not discuss hosting capacity or required grid upgrades. Searches for transformer-station rebuilding, line reinforcement, and capacity-related investments found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.75)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingown data

    PV leads to 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to EV.

    “we find that PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV respectively”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    HP causes 0.5% more line overloading than PV.

    “PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV respectively, which on the other hand, cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, the median grid reinforcement cost is 109M CHF (range 108-109M) for EV.

    “These issues, overall, lead to a median grid reinforcement cost of 109M CHF (ranging between 108-109M CHF) for EV, as opposed to 79M CHF (ranging between 78-79M CHF) and 78M CHF (ranging between 76-82M CHF) for HP and PV, respectively, in 2035.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 43
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 12
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The redundancy is typically higher in the medium voltage/high voltage grid in Switzerland, and there are more reserves (higher hosting capacity) compared to the low voltage grid.

    “The redundancy is typically higher in the medium voltage/high voltage grid in Switzerland, and there are more reserves (higher hosting capacity) compared to the low voltage grid [83].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [83] Ballanti, 2016, On the integrated PV hosting capacity of MV and LV distribution networks, 2015 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Latin America, ISGT LATAM 2015 source

      In “MV-LV Integrated Hosting Capacity” (page unavailable), the paper reports that its UK case study accommodated almost nine times more PV generation when installations were predominantly connected to LV rather than MV—the opposite of the claimed hosting-capacity comparison. It studies a network in England, not Switzerland, and does not assess grid redundancy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Other measures such as retrofitting of buildings can reduce the peak load of HP by 42%-73% while local demand side flexibility can be used to decrease the grid impacts of all technologies.

    “It is also important to note that other measures such as retrofitting of buildings can reduce the peak load of HP by 42%-73% [56,81] while local demand side flexibility can be used to decrease the grid impacts of all technologies [82].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [56] Streicher, 2020, Cost-effectiveness of large-scale deep energy retrofit packages for residential buildings under different economic assessment approaches, Energy Build source
    • cites [81] Rinaldi, 2021, Decarbonising heat with optimal PV and storage investments: A detailed sector coupling modelling framework with flexible heat pump operation, Appl Energy source

      Section 2.3 (Retrofitting; page unavailable) gives the 42%–73% figure as savings in useful energy demand from building retrofitting, not a reduction in heat-pump peak load. Section 4.2 finds that retrofitting can reduce storage investments, but does not establish the claimed peak-load reduction. The separate statement about local demand-side flexibility is cited to [82], not this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [82] IEA, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The new regulatory context in the European Union and Switzerland states that the ownership and operation of energy storage is restricted for DSO, however, they could use tenders to engage market actors (like prosumers and aggregators) who own energy storage to provide grid services.

    “The new regulatory context in the European Union and Switzerland states that the ownership and operation of energy storage is restricted for DSO, however, they could use tenders to engage market actors (like prosumers and aggregators) who own energy storage to provide grid services [79].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [79] Proka, 2020, When top-down meets bottom-up: Is there a collaborative business model for local energy storage?, Energy Res Soc Sci source

      Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For some transformer stations, even very limited capacity addition can undermine the existing distribution grid capacity, in terms of peak load or voltage limits, which would then need to be replaced/reinforced.

    “Our results show that for some transformer stations, even very limited capacity addition can undermine the existing distribution grid capacity, in terms of peak load or voltage limits, which would then need to be replaced/reinforced.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2050, 8% of transformer stations should be rebuilt for PV deployment, compared to 1% for HP.

    “To enable this PV deployment, 8% of transformer stations should be rebuilt, which is a markedly higher percentage than for HP (only 1%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In the determined effort scenario for 2035, 10% of transformer stations for PV need to be rebuilt, compared to 1% for HP and 2% for EV.

    “Overall, 10% of the transformer stations for PV need to be rebuilt, compared to only 1% and 2% for HP and EV respectively, thereby leading to higher costs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, the median specific grid reinforcement cost for EV in rural areas is 143 CHF/kW (IQR 29-1058), compared to 1385 CHF/kW (280-6413) for HP and 201 CHF/kW (52-796) for PV.

    “In rural areas, the median (IQR values reported in brackets) specific grid reinforcement cost for EV is 143 (29 to 1'058) CHF/kW compared to 1'385 (280 to 6'413) CHF/kW and 201 (52 to 796) CHF/kW 𝑝 for HP and PV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In the aggressive effort scenario for 2035, PV deployment leads to median grid reinforcement cost of 282M CHF (range 278-288M), compared to EV 155M CHF (154-156M) and HP 90M CHF (88-90M).

    “First, in 2035, similar as in determined effort, PV deployment leads to relatively higher grid reinforcement costs with a median value of 282M CHF (ranging between 278-288M CHF) compared to a median value of 155M CHF (ranging between 154-156M CHF) and 90M CHF (ranging between 88-90M CHF) for EV and HP respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the determined effort scenario for 2035, in suburban areas, the median specific grid reinforcement cost is 102 CHF/kW (36-276) for PV, 46 CHF/kW (17-229) for HP, and 37 CHF/kW (14-111) for EV.

    “For suburban areas, the median (IQR) grid cost is 102 (36 to 276) CHF/kW, 46 (17 to 229) CHF/kW and 37 (14 to 111) CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, the median specific grid reinforcement cost for EV in suburban areas is 49 CHF/kW (IQR 16-150), compared to 199 CHF/kW (64-878) for HP and 76 CHF/kW (24-259) for PV.

    “For suburban areas, the median (IQR) specific grid reinforcement costs reduces substantially to 49 (16 to 150) CHF/kW, 199 (64 to 878) CHF/kW and 76 (24 to 259) CHF/kW 𝑝 for EV, HP and PV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The coefficient of determination R2 for PV is 95%, 98%, and 97% for rural, suburban, and urban areas, respectively.

    “We obtain a coefficient of determination, R 2 of 95%, 98% and 97% for PV in rural, suburban and urban areas, which implies a good fit (see Fig. 12(a).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    In the determined effort scenario for 2035, PV grid reinforcement costs are most expensive, with median 201M CHF (range 195-206M), compared to EV 129M CHF (128-131M) and HP 85M CHF.

    “Contrary to the least effort scenario for 2035 where grid reinforcement for PV is least expensive, grid reinforcement costs for PV in the determined scenario for 2035 are most expensive, with a median value of 201M CHF (ranging between 195-206M CHF) as opposed to a median value of 129M CHF (ranging between 128-131M CHF) and 85M CHF for EV and HP respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the aggressive effort scenario for 2035, PV causes 23% of house connections to undergo voltage violation, compared to 9% for EV and 4% for HP.

    “In particular, PV causes 23% of the house connections undergoing voltage violation compared to 9% and 4% for EV and HP respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Around 72% of transformer stations within the supply area are in rural areas, 22% in suburban and 6% in urban areas.

    “Around 72% of the transformer stations within the supply area are in rural areas, 22% in suburban and 6% in urban areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the determined effort scenario for 2050, doubling PV deployment relative to 2035 leads to 34% of house connections having voltage violations and 104 km of lines overloading, resulting in median grid reinforcement cost of 400M CHF (range 395-406M).

    “Finally, doubling PV deployment in 2050, relative to 2035, leads to 34% of the house connections having voltage violations along with 104 km of lines overloading, resulting in a median grid reinforcement cost of 400M CHF (ranging between 395-406M CHF) in 2050.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Grid reinforcement costs for HP range between 46 and 1385 CHF/kW depending on urban setting, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.

    “grid reinforcement costs markedly depend on the type of urban setting ranging between 51-213 CHF/kW 𝑝 , 46-1'385 CHF/kW and 34-143 CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV, respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2050, expected PV capacity is 597 MWp (100% higher than 2035), causing voltage violation in 11% of house connections.

    “In 2050, the expected PV capacity in the least effort scenario is 597 MW 𝑝 (100% higher than in 2035), causing a voltage violation in 11% of the house connections compared to only around 4% in case of HP (with a installed capacity of 230 MW in 2050).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For PV, the distribution grid reinforcement costs range between 0.9B CHF and 4.3B CHF in 2035, corresponding to 4.2 GWp (least effort 2035) and 21.1 GWp (heroic effort 2035), respectively.

    “For PV, the distribution grid reinforcement costs range between 0.9B CHF and 4.3B CHF in 2035, corresponding to 4.2 GW 𝑝 (least effort 2035) and 21.1 GW 𝑝 (heroic effort 2035) respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2050, HP deployment results in median grid reinforcement cost of 84M CHF (range 84-86M), representing less than 10% increase compared to 2035.

    “This is significantly higher than for HP with a median value of 84M CHF (ranging between 84-86M CHF), representing less than 10% increase compared to 2035.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the determined effort scenario for 2035, in urban areas, the median specific grid reinforcement cost is 72 CHF/kW (25-243) for PV, 57 CHF/kW (27-82) for HP, and 47 CHF/kW (25-77) for EV.

    “For urban areas, the median (IQR) grid cost is 72 (25 to 243) CHF/kW 𝑝 , 57 (27 to 82) CHF/kW and 47 (25 to 77) CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the determined effort scenario for 2035, in rural areas, the median specific grid reinforcement cost for HP is 326 CHF/kW (IQR 66-2607), compared to 200 CHF/kW (65-619) for PV and 95 CHF/kW (23-677) for EV.

    “The median (IQR values reported in brackets) specific grid reinforcement cost for HP in rural areas is 326 (66 to 2'607) CHF/kW, compared to 200 (65 to 619) CHF/kW 𝑝 and 95 (23 to 677) CHF/kW in case of PV and EV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In the aggressive effort scenario for 2050, PV causes around 44% of house connections to undergo voltage violation, compared to only 5% for HP.

    “PV causes around 44% of the house connections undergoing voltage violation compared to only 5% for HP.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, the median specific grid reinforcement cost for EV in urban areas is 63 CHF/kW (IQR 28-104), compared to 206 CHF/kW (81-397) for HP and 51 CHF/kW (15-185) for PV.

    “The values reduce even further for PV, however, increase for HP and EV in urban areas, where the median (IQR) specific grid reinforcement costs are 63 (28 to 104) CHF/kW, 206 (81 to 397) CHF/kW and 51 (15 to 185) CHF/kW 𝑝 for EV, HP and PV respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, 27% of transformer stations require upgrading in case of HP, compared to 20% for PV.

    “This results in 27% of the transformer stations requiring upgrading in case of HP compared to 20% for PV.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    This value increases up to 0.7B CHF if also wood and direct electric heating systems are replaced, amounting to a nominal HP electrical capacity of 7.8 GW (heroic effort 2050).

    “This value increases up to 0.7B CHF if also wood and direct electric heating systems are replaced in addition to ones based on fossil fuels, amounting to a nominal HP electrical capacity of 7.8 GW (heroic effort 2050).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Across all scenarios presented in Section 3.4, the median specific grid reinforcement costs varies between 51-213 CHF/kWp, 46-1385 CHF/kW, and 34-143 CHF/kW for PV, HP, and EV respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.

    “For instance, across all scenarios presented in Section 3.4, the median specific grid reinforcement costs varies between 51-213foot_2 CHF/kW 𝑝 , 46-1385 CHF/kW and 34-143 CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Assuming a 7 kW charger for each EV in a fully electrified passenger cars fleet in 2050, would add up to 35.4 GW (heroic effort 2050), requiring an investment of 1.7B CHF for grid reinforcement.

    “Finally, assuming a 7 kW charger for each EV (equally distributed in rural, suburban and urban) in a fully electrified passenger cars fleet in 2050, would add up to 35.4 GW (heroic effort 2050), requiring an investment of 1.7B CHF for grid reinforcement.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Only a recent study assessed the impact of PV, HP and EV on a distribution grid, but it was carried out for a medium sized town (population of 40'000) in Germany covering only the residential sector.

    “Only a recent study assessed the impact of PV, HP and EV on a distribution grid, but it was carried out for a medium sized town (population of 40'000) in Germany covering only the residential sector [44].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44] Tao Mu PH. Impact of high penetration of electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic generation on distribution grids – an analysis of a german case. In: 3rd E-Mobility Integration Symposium 2019. 2019.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Estimates of grid reinforcement costs are seldomly reported by distribution system operators and data availability at high renewable energy penetration is scarce.

    “Since estimates of grid reinforcement costs are seldomly reported by the distribution system operators and the data availability at high RE penetration is scarce [32]”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [32] Heptonstall, 2020, A systematic review of the costs and impacts of integrating variable renewables into power grids, Nat Energy source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The grid in rural areas is generally weaker and more spread out, making it more prone to voltage violation issues due to differences in length and strength compared to urban areas.

    “The reason for higher costs in rural areas is because the grid in rural area is generally weaker and more spread out.It is therefore more prone to voltage violation issues due to differences in length and strength of the grid network compared to the grid in urban area.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Voltage limit violations are defined as a voltage increase of more than 3% due to PV power infeed compared to the situation without PV power infeed, and a voltage lower than 90% of nominal voltage for load simulations.

    “The following cases are considered as voltage limit violations: 1.A voltage increase of more than 3% due to PV power infeed compared to the situation without PV power infeed according to the DACHCZ technical rules for assessing network perturbations [63]. 2. The voltage at any point in the distribution grid is lower than 90% of the nominal voltage for load simulations according to EN 50160 [63].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [63] Energie, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    In the least effort scenario for 2035, HP deployment leads to more line overloading compared to PV, despite HP installed capacity being one third of PV capacity.

    “Interestingly, HP leads to more line overloading compared to PV, despite the fact that HP installed capacity is one third of PV capacity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Studies on grid adequacy indicate that grid reinforcement is not needed with low diffusion of EV, HP and PV (e.g. up to 15%), with the exception of EV charged during peak hours, but becomes necessary for higher penetration levels.

    “In short, the studies on grid adequacy indicate that grid reinforcement is not needed with low diffusion of EV, HP and PV (e.g. up to 15%), with the exception of EV charged during peak hours, which however does become necessary for higher penetration levels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The distribution grid model is a large-scale planning model with high spatial resolution, developed and operated by the DSO (BKW), and consists of all electrical components of the low voltage grid from medium-to-low voltage transformer down to every house connection.

    “A large-scale distribution grid planning model with a high spatial resolution, developed and operated by the DSO (BKW), is used to calculate the required network investment for the different future levels of technology penetration according to the scenarios defined in Section 2.5.The model consists of all electrical components of the low voltage grid, which are exported from BKW's GIS, starting at”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The study does not consider PV self consumption and demand side management because it deals with preparing the grid for worst case scenarios.

    “We do not consider PV self consumption and demand side management as this study deals with preparing the grid for the worst case scenarios.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Battery storage systems can secure grid stability, improve asset utilisation and potentially defer grid reinforcements.

    “Battery storage systems are becoming very attractive since they can secure grid stability, improve asset utilisation and potentially defer grid reinforcements [35,37].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [35] Van Der Burgt, 2015, Grid impact of charging electric vehicles; study cases in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands source
    • cites [37] Segundo Sevilla, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of battery storage and curtailment in a distribution grid with high PV penetration, J Energy Storage source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The recent German study neither discusses the cost of grid reinforcement nor potential solutions to avoid grid reinforcement.

    “However, this study neither discusses the cost of grid reinforcement nor potential solutions to avoid grid reinforcement.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44] Tao Mu PH. Impact of high penetration of electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic generation on distribution grids – an analysis of a german case. In: 3rd E-Mobility Integration Symposium 2019. 2019.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The last point on the PV graph (heroic PV penetration 1480 MWp) suggests a saturation, implying that the linear dependency does not hold for very high PV capacities.

    “Interestingly, the last point on the PV graph showcasing the heroic PV penetration (1480 MWp) suggests a saturation (Fig. 12(a)).This implies that the linear dependency does not hold for very high PV capacities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The study performs several simulation tests to understand the sensitivity of grid reinforcement costs to spatial diffusion of technologies.

    “However, to obtain more robust results, we perform several simulation tests to understand the sensitivity of grid reinforcement costs to spatial diffusion of technologies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    PV can create reverse power flow in distribution feeders, potentially resulting in voltage violations and overloading of distribution lines.

    “PV can create a reverse power flow in the distribution feeders, potentially resulting in voltage violations and overloading of the distribution lines [19][20][21].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [19] Punyachai R, Ongsakul W, Schmidt U. Impact of high solar rooftop PV penetration on voltage profiles in distribution systems. In: 2014 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Green Energy for Sustainable Development. 2014, p. 1–7.
    • cites [20] Bilton, 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [21] Cohen, 2016, Effects of distributed PV generation on california’s distribution system, Part 1: Engineering simulations, Sol Energy source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    It is expected that the CAPEX of stationary Li-ion batteries will decrease by 54%-61% by 2030, making batteries a good flexible solution to support distribution grid expansion.

    “However, on the other hand, it is expected that the CAPEX of stationary Li-ion batteries will decrease by 54%-61% by 2030 [72], making batteries a good flexible solution to support distribution grid expansion.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [72] IRENA (2017), 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Batteries can provide up to 15 different services at the grid, generation and end-user level and combining different applications would substantially increase the value of batteries, and their profitability as shown by previous studies.

    “Moreover, batteries can provide up to 15 different services at the grid, generation and end-user level [73,74] and combining different applications (also referred to as benefit stacking) would substantially increase the value of batteries, and their profitability as shown by previous studies [75][76][77].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 5 sources checked
    • cites [73] Hart, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [74] IRENA, 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [75] Parra, 2019, The nature of combining energy storage applications for residential battery technology, Appl Energy source
    • cites [76] Stephan, 2016, Limiting the public cost of stationary battery deployment by combining applications, Nat Energy source
    • cites [77] Pena-Bello, 2019, Optimized PV-coupled battery systems for combining applications: Impact of battery technology and geography, Renew Sustain Energy Rev source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    A recent study on spatial diffusion patterns of PV projects shows that rural areas in Switzerland tend to be hot spots for PV installations compared to urban areas which have relatively less number of PV projects.

    “For instance, a recent study on spatial diffusion patterns of PV projects shows that rural areas in Switzerland tend to be hot spots for PV installations compared to urban areas which have relatively less number of PV projects [71].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [71] Thormeyer, 2020, Spatially-explicit models should consider real-world diffusion of renewable electricity: Solar PV example in Switzerland, Renew Energy source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Community energy storage (CES) has also been suggested as a possible strategy to reduce the CAPEX and OPEX of batteries, regarding individual home systems.

    “Community energy storage (CES) has also been suggested as a possible strategy to reduce the CAPEX and OPEX of batteries, regarding individual home systems [73,78].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [73] Hart, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [78] Parra, 2017, An interdisciplinary review of energy storage for communities: Challenges and perspectives, Renew Sustain Energy Rev source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The total grid reinforcement cost is equal to the sum of cost for reinforcing the low, medium and high voltage grid.

    “The total grid reinforcement cost is equal to the sum of cost for reinforcing the low, medium and high voltage grid.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Since the lifetime of grid reinforcement is usually considered between 40-50 yrs, the replacement of batteries after 15 yrs would have to be considered in case the time period of distribution grid reinforcement deferral is assumed to be more than 15 yrs, which would make batteries more costly than grid reinforcement.

    “Since the lifetime of grid reinforcement is usually considered between 40-50 yrs [55], the replacement of batteries after 15 yrs would have to be considered in case the time period of distribution grid reinforcement deferral is assumed to be more than 15 yrs.This would make batteries more costly than grid reinforcement.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [55] 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Our GIS-based method can be used to quantify the impacts of PV, HP and EV on the low voltage distribution grids and our results help to plan the distribution grid infrastructure including sector coupling.

    “Our GIS-based method can be used to quantify the impacts of PV, HP and EV on the low voltage distribution grids and our results help to plan the distribution grid infrastructure including sector coupling.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Under different ownership models, batteries as CES could benefit both consumers and DSO, creating a win-win relationship.

    “Under different ownership models, batteries as CES could benefit both consumers and DSO, creating a win-win relationship [37,73,78].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [37] Segundo Sevilla, 2018, Techno-economic analysis of battery storage and curtailment in a distribution grid with high PV penetration, J Energy Storage source
    • cites [73] Hart, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [78] Parra, 2017, An interdisciplinary review of energy storage for communities: Challenges and perspectives, Renew Sustain Energy Rev source
48 of 48

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The supply area's distribution grid and technology deployment patterns are representative of Switzerland for scaling up national-level results.

    “Finally, we scale up our results to the national level to evaluate the long-term grid impact of decarbonization in Switzerland.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    If grid violations cannot be eliminated using a simple reinforcement (upgrading) of the grid elements, a complete rebuilding of the affected part of the distribution grid network is assumed.

    “If grid violations cannot be eliminated using a simple reinforcement (upgrading) of the grid elements, we assume a complete rebuilding of the affected part of the distribution grid network.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The specific grid reinforcement costs per urban setting from the DSO's supply area are representative for the rest of the country.

    “Thus, we assume that the specific grid reinforcement costs per urban setting from the DSO's supply area are representative for rest of the country.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once.

    “First, our model assumes that capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The assumed grid reinforcement costs for transformers and line correspond to average costs.

    “Secondly, the assumed grid reinforcement costs for transformers and line correspond to average costs.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The study does not consider behind-the-meter flexibility, so reinforcement costs correspond to extreme cases without inherent behind-the-meter flexibility.

    “This is not considered by our study, thus, our reinforcement costs correspond to extreme cases without inherent behind-the-meter flexibility.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The number of households in Switzerland is 3.8M (assuming the same number as today).

    “With 3.8M households in Switzerland (assuming the same number as today), the cost of reinforcement would translate to around 1'440 CHF and 2'900 CHF per household in 2035 and 2050, respectively (1 Swiss Franc = 1 CHF ≈ 1 USD).”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Planning costs or the change in operational costs are not considered in the grid reinforcement cost values.

    “The values primarily represent investment costs for the physical grid, whereas planning costs or the change in operational costs are not considered.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Other costs such as labour expenses and land development expenses are not taken into account for battery storage.

    “Other costs such as labour expenses and land development expenses are not taken into account.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    PV, HP and EV are highly relevant for climate change mitigation and challenging to integrate into the existing grid infrastructure.

    “Considering the high relevance of PV, HP and EV for climate change mitigation and the challenges to integrate them in the existing grid infrastructure, this study aims to help various decision-makers such as the DSO, policy makers and regulators to better plan the future distribution grid infrastructure which maximizes renewable energy and sector coupling.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Lithium-ion batteries are a key flexibility option to enable further renewable energy penetration.

    “Importantly, we also compare grid reinforcement with energy storage, assuming lithium-ion batteries, which are considered as a key flexibility option to enable further renewable energy penetration.”
11 of 11

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • HP scenario is called heroic despite being excluded

    Minor

    The methods state that no heroic-effort scenario is considered for HP, but the national results label a 2050 HP capacity as heroic effort.

  • EV does not have the lowest median cost in every urban setting

    Minor

    The text says the median cost for EV is lower than for both HP and PV across urban settings, but its reported urban median is 63 CHF/kW, above PV's 51 CHF/kW.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 55 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. IRENA, 2019, Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition)
  2. Tao Mu PH. Impact of high penetration of electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic generation on distribution grids – an analysis of a german case. In: 3rd E-Mobility Integration Symposium 2019. 2019.
  3. Streicher, 2020, Cost-effectiveness of large-scale deep energy retrofit packages for residential buildings under different economic assessment approaches, Energy Build, 215, 10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.109870 · DOI · Paper page
  4. Zinaman, 2020, An overview of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage regulatory design: Approaches and case studies to inform international applications (Report no. NREL/TP-7A40-75283), NREL Report, 1

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Gupta, R., Pena-Bello, A., Streicher, K. N., Roduner, C., Farhat, Y., Thöni, D., Patel, M. K., & Parra, D.
Affiliations
University of Geneva (CH)
Corresponding author
Gupta, Ruchi
ORCID
Venue
Applied Energy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2021-04
Volume
287
Pages
116504
ISSN
0306-2619 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116504
OpenAlex
W3126603060
Cited by
161
References
55
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 13
FWCI
7.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Applied Energy (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Innosuisse - Schweizerische Agentur für Innovationsförderung
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Optimal Power Flow Distribution
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Keywords
photovoltaics, electric heat pumps, electric vehicles, low-voltage distribution networks, voltage violation, line overload, battery energy storage, decarbonization, flexibility measures, urban-rural differences, transformer substation

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-28.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-28.

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