Cited by 161Optimal Power Flow DistributionElectric Vehicles and InfrastructureIntegrated Energy Systems Optimization

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 54 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 7 of the 32 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Spatial analysis of distribution grid capacity and costs to enable massive deployment of PV, electric mobility and electric heating

Open access

Abstract

Rapid deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV), electric heat pumps (HP) and electric vehicles (EV) is needed to decarbonize the economy. However, the integration of these technologies into the power system creates challenges for the distribution grid infrastructure. It is therefore vital to analyse to which extent grid reinforcement is needed to enable decarbonization strategies while also studying alternative flexibility measures. In this GIS-based study, we model the impact of the deployment of PV, HP and EV on a low-voltage distribution grid network serving 170’000 households in Switzerland, and analyse scenarios for their penetration in the years 2035 and 2050. Using a detailed grid model in collaboration with a distribution system operator, we find that PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV respectively, which on the other hand, cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively. We also find that grid reinforcement costs markedly depend on the type of urban setting ranging between 51–213 CHF/kWp, 46–1’385 CHF/kW and 34–143 CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV, respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas. The total distribution grid reinforcement costs can amount up to 11 billion CHF until 2050 i.e. 2’900 CHF per household in Switzerland. Interestingly, we find that batteries, even with current costs, have the potential to defer grid reinforcement for up to 15% of the transformer stations with the highest specific grid reinforcement costs. Our study aims to inform various stakeholders about the required grid investments to enable the massive deployment of low carbon technologies.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This GIS-based study models PV, heat pump (HP), and EV deployment on a low-voltage distribution grid serving 170,000 Swiss households in 2035 and 2050, using scenarios and detailed DSO grid modeling. It finds PV drives more voltage violations while HP/EV drive more line overloading, and estimates substantial grid reinforcement costs that vary by urban setting and can reach 11 billion CHF nationally by 2050, with batteries able to defer some reinforcement.

Key findings

  • PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV, respectively; HP and EV cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
  • Specific grid reinforcement costs range from 51–213 CHF/kWp for PV, 46–1,385 CHF/kW for HP, and 34–143 CHF/kW for EV, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas.
  • Total distribution grid reinforcement costs can amount to up to 11 billion CHF until 2050, i.e. about 2,900 CHF per household in Switzerland; in 2035 the heroic scenario totals 5.4B CHF, or around 1,440 CHF per household.
  • Batteries, even with current costs, can defer grid reinforcement for up to 15% of transformer stations with the highest specific grid reinforcement costs; for determined and aggressive PV scenarios this drops to 5%.

Methods

  • GIS-based modeling of rooftop PV, residential HP, and EV charging deployment in a real DSO supply area of 170,000 households (population 379,100), with least, determined, aggressive, and heroic effort scenarios for 2035 and 2050.
  • A detailed low-voltage distribution grid model from DSO BKW runs load flow calculations to identify voltage violations, line overloading, and transformer overloading, then applies iterative reinforcement using empirical DSO costs.
  • Regression analysis relates installed technology capacity to grid reinforcement costs, results are upscaled to Switzerland, and battery storage is compared with grid reinforcement using NPV over a 15-year deferral period.

Limitations

  • Stated: the model assumes capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once; in reality incremental additions across the transition could lead to higher cumulative reinforcement costs.
  • Stated: reinforcement costs are average values that vary by project and local circumstances; the study excludes building retrofits (which can reduce HP peak load by 42–73%) and demand-side flexibility, so costs represent extreme cases without behind-the-meter flexibility.
  • Stated/evident: the analysis focuses only on the low-voltage grid, and national upscaling assumes specific costs per urban setting from the DSO supply area are representative for the rest of Switzerland, which the paper calls a strong assumption; future work should include medium/high-voltage levels.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116504

Cites

54 of 54 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Figures

Image 1
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 1 Basic structure of the Swiss electricity grid. Our study focuses on the low voltage distribution grid depicted as level 6 and 7 in this figure.
Fig. 1 Basic structure of the Swiss electricity grid. Our study focuses on the low voltage distribution grid depicted as level 6 and 7 in this figure.CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 2 Scenario development across different technologies and their combinations in 2035 and 2050.
Fig. 2 Scenario development across different technologies and their combinations in 2035 and 2050.CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 3 Histogram of the PV installed capacity relative to the nominal capacity of the transformer stations for various urban settings within the supply area for (a) least, (b) determined, and (c) aggressive effort scenarios in 2035.
Fig. 3 Histogram of the PV installed capacity relative to the nominal capacity of the transformer stations for various urban settings within the supply area for (a) least, (b) determined, and (c) aggressive effort scenarios in 2035.CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 5
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 5 Histogram of EV chargers installed capacity relative to the nominal capacity of the transformer stations for various urban settings within the supply area for (a) least, (b) determined, and (c) aggressive effort scenarios in 2035.
Fig. 5 Histogram of EV chargers installed capacity relative to the nominal capacity of the transformer stations for various urban settings within the supply area for (a) least, (b) determined, and (c) aggressive effort scenarios in 2035.CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 6 Flowchart showing steps involved in modelling of the distribution grid.
Fig. 6 Flowchart showing steps involved in modelling of the distribution grid.CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 8
CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 9
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 9 Results for the aggressive effort scenario in 2035 and 2050: (a) Grid reinforcement costs and driving factors for grid reinforcement costs: Percentage of house connections undergoing voltage violation, length of overloaded lines and share of transformer stations undergoing a upgrade or rebuilding due to penetration of PV, HP, EV and their combinations in 2035 ((b) to (d)) and 2050 ((e) to (g)). Since, there is no aggressive effort scenario for EV, HP+EV and PV+EV+HP in 2050, there are no boxes and bars for these technologies in 2050.
Fig. 9 Results for the aggressive effort scenario in 2035 and 2050: (a) Grid reinforcement costs and driving factors for grid reinforcement costs: Percentage of house connections undergoing voltage violation, length of overloaded lines and share of transformer stations undergoing a upgrade or rebuilding due to penetration of PV, HP, EV and their combinations in 2035 ((b) to (d)) and 2050 ((e) to (g)). Since, there is no aggressive effort scenario for EV, HP+EV and PV+EV+HP in 2050, there are no boxes and bars for these technologies in 2050.CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 11
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 11 Determined effort scenario - Specific grid reinforcement costs for PV, HP and EV chargers for different urban settings in 2035.
Fig. 11 Determined effort scenario - Specific grid reinforcement costs for PV, HP and EV chargers for different urban settings in 2035.CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 12 Regression analysis between (a) PV and (b) HP (c) EV chargers installed capacity and grid reinforcement costs under different scenarios at the supply area level for both 2035 and 2050. Linear regression trend lines are marked in blue for rural, orange for suburban and green for urban. Regression equations are given against trend lines of each urban setting.
Fig. 12 Regression analysis between (a) PV and (b) HP (c) EV chargers installed capacity and grid reinforcement costs under different scenarios at the supply area level for both 2035 and 2050. Linear regression trend lines are marked in blue for rural, orange for suburban and green for urban. Regression equations are given against trend lines of each urban setting.CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 13 Distribution grid reinforcement costs in B CHF for PV, HP and EV chargers deployment for whole of Switzerland. The abbreviations L, D, A and H represent least, determined, aggressive and heroic effort scenarios respectively.
Fig. 13 Distribution grid reinforcement costs in B CHF for PV, HP and EV chargers deployment for whole of Switzerland. The abbreviations L, D, A and H represent least, determined, aggressive and heroic effort scenarios respectively.CC-BY · From the PDF

Verification

Claims the paper makes

65 Own result · 19 No basis given · 12 Own interpretation · 5 Sources not found · 5 Not checked yet · 4 Own method · 3 Partly supported · 3 No full text of the sources · 1 Supported · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured

Show all 70 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 43
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 12
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
48 of 48
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The supply area's distribution grid and technology deployment patterns are representative of Switzerland for scaling up national-level results.

    “Finally, we scale up our results to the national level to evaluate the long-term grid impact of decarbonization in Switzerland.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    If grid violations cannot be eliminated using a simple reinforcement (upgrading) of the grid elements, a complete rebuilding of the affected part of the distribution grid network is assumed.

    “If grid violations cannot be eliminated using a simple reinforcement (upgrading) of the grid elements, we assume a complete rebuilding of the affected part of the distribution grid network.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The specific grid reinforcement costs per urban setting from the DSO's supply area are representative for the rest of the country.

    “Thus, we assume that the specific grid reinforcement costs per urban setting from the DSO's supply area are representative for rest of the country.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once.

    “First, our model assumes that capacity additions and grid reinforcement occur all at once.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The assumed grid reinforcement costs for transformers and line correspond to average costs.

    “Secondly, the assumed grid reinforcement costs for transformers and line correspond to average costs.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The study does not consider behind-the-meter flexibility, so reinforcement costs correspond to extreme cases without inherent behind-the-meter flexibility.

    “This is not considered by our study, thus, our reinforcement costs correspond to extreme cases without inherent behind-the-meter flexibility.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The number of households in Switzerland is 3.8M (assuming the same number as today).

    “With 3.8M households in Switzerland (assuming the same number as today), the cost of reinforcement would translate to around 1'440 CHF and 2'900 CHF per household in 2035 and 2050, respectively (1 Swiss Franc = 1 CHF ≈ 1 USD).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Planning costs or the change in operational costs are not considered in the grid reinforcement cost values.

    “The values primarily represent investment costs for the physical grid, whereas planning costs or the change in operational costs are not considered.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Other costs such as labour expenses and land development expenses are not taken into account for battery storage.

    “Other costs such as labour expenses and land development expenses are not taken into account.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    PV, HP and EV are highly relevant for climate change mitigation and challenging to integrate into the existing grid infrastructure.

    “Considering the high relevance of PV, HP and EV for climate change mitigation and the challenges to integrate them in the existing grid infrastructure, this study aims to help various decision-makers such as the DSO, policy makers and regulators to better plan the future distribution grid infrastructure which maximizes renewable energy and sector coupling.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Lithium-ion batteries are a key flexibility option to enable further renewable energy penetration.

    “Importantly, we also compare grid reinforcement with energy storage, assuming lithium-ion batteries, which are considered as a key flexibility option to enable further renewable energy penetration.”
11 of 11

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

2 of 2

Citations

Cites

Show all 55 references

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. IRENA, 2019, Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition)
  2. Tao Mu PH. Impact of high penetration of electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic generation on distribution grids – an analysis of a german case. In: 3rd E-Mobility Integration Symposium 2019. 2019.
  3. Streicher, 2020, Cost-effectiveness of large-scale deep energy retrofit packages for residential buildings under different economic assessment approaches, Energy Build, 215, 10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.109870 · DOI · Paper page
  4. Zinaman, 2020, An overview of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage regulatory design: Approaches and case studies to inform international applications (Report no. NREL/TP-7A40-75283), NREL Report, 1

Cited by

Sorted by citations

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Metadata

Authors
Gupta, R., Pena-Bello, A., Streicher, K. N., Roduner, C., Farhat, Y., Thöni, D., Patel, M. K., & Parra, D.
Affiliations
University of Geneva (CH)
Corresponding author
Gupta, Ruchi
Venue
Applied Energy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2021-04
Volume
287
Pages
116504
ISSN
0306-2619 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W3126603060
Cited by
161
References
55
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 13
FWCI
7.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Applied Energy (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Innosuisse - Schweizerische Agentur für Innovationsförderung
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Optimal Power Flow Distribution
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Keywords
photovoltaics, electric heat pumps, electric vehicles, low-voltage distribution networks, voltage violation, line overload, battery energy storage, decarbonization, flexibility measures, urban-rural differences, transformer substation

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