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Cited by 112Alcohol Consumption and Health EffectsSubstance Abuse Treatment and OutcomesGlobal Public Health Policies and Epidemiology

The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses

Holmes, John, Meier, Petra S., Booth, Andrew, Guo, Yelan, Brennan, Alan·2012·Drug and Alcohol Dependence
DOI 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2011.12.005
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Abstract

Background Changes in per capita alcohol consumption are temporally linked to changes in rates of alcohol-related harm. Methodological approaches for analysing this relationship have been suggested, however, the problem of time lags is not well-addressed. This study provides a review of time lag specifications, looking at (a) time to first effect on harm, (b) time to full effect and (c) the functional form of the effect accumulation from first to full effect to inform modelling of the relationship between changes in aggregate alcohol consumption and changes in rates of harm.Methods Bibliographic databases were searched and citation and reference checking was used to identify studies. Included studies were time series analyses of the relationship between aggregated population alcohol consumption and rates of alcohol-related harms where time lag specifications had been derived or tested.Results 36 studies were included with liver cirrhosis, heart disease and suicide dominating the evidence base. For a large number of alcohol-related harms, no literature was identified. There was strong evidence of an immediate first effect following a change in consumption for most harms. Recommended lag specifications are proposed for a set of alcohol-attributable harms.Conclusions Research on time lag specifications is under-developed for most harms although we provide suggested specifications based on the findings of the review. Greater methodological attention needs to be given to the rationale for choosing or applying lag specifications and the inherent complexity of the time lag process. More consistent and transparent reporting of methodological decisions would aide progress in the field.

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  • Current estimates of the number of cancer cases and cancer deaths caused by alcohol are limited due to the inability to incorporate biological latency which, for many cancer sites, can be 20 years or more.

    “However, current estimates of the number of cancer cases and cancer deaths caused by alcohol are limited due to the inability to incorporate biological latency which, for many cancer sites, can be 20 years or more 185, 186.”

    From The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease—an update (2017) · cites this paper as [185]

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  1. Johnson,J., 1984. Econometric Methods. McGraw-Hill, New York.
  2. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  3. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  4. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  5. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  6. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  7. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  8. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  9. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  10. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  11. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14
  12. Holmes et al. (2012) The temporal relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and harm: A systematic review of time lag specifications in aggregate time series analyses, Drug & Alcohol Dependence , 123 (1-3) pp.7-14

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Authors
Holmes, J., Meier, P. S., Booth, A., Guo, Y., & Brennan, A.
Affiliations
University of Sheffield (GB)
Corresponding author
Holmes, John
ORCID
Venue
Drug and Alcohol Dependence
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2012-06
Volume
123
Issue
1-3
Pages
7-14
ISSN
0376-8716 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2011.12.005
OpenAlex
W2025922890
Cited by
112
References
52
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 10
FWCI
0.97
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Drug and Alcohol Dependence (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
Keywords
per capita alcohol consumption, alcohol-related harm, lagged effects, liver cirrhosis, heart disease, suicide, alcohol policy evaluation
MeSH terms
Alcohol Drinking, Epidemiologic Methods, Heart Diseases, Humans, Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic, Suicide, Time Factors

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