Identity after the ballot: How winning and losing impact partisan attachments and affective polarization
Open accessAbstract
How do election outcomes shape partisan affective polarization? Drawing on theories of group identity, I examine how winning or losing elections affects partisan attitudes. Election outcomes can change partisans’ perceived out-group threat and in-group status at the same time. These mechanisms lead to ambivalent predictions for the affective polarization of both winners and losers. In a series of randomized survey experiments from the United States (n = 7,188), I measure in- and out-party attitudes before and after hypothetical scenarios of election outcomes. I find no evidence that losing elections increases affective polarization. While losers’ out-party evaluations remain stable, winners show warmer in-party feelings. This suggests that elections lead to winner gratification rather than loser backlash. These findings challenge common concerns about the losers’ consent in democracies — at least when it comes to the emotional effects of election outcomes among the mass public.
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While there is some work on how electoral outcomes impact affective polarization, it does not explicitly or fully interrogate the role of power.
“While there is some work on how electoral outcomes impact affective polarization (e.g., Andrews & Huang, 2025;Gidron & Sheffer, 2024;Hamrak, 2025;Phillips & Warner, 2026), it does not explicitly or fully interrogate the role of power.”
From Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures (2026) · cites this paper as Hamrak, 2025
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2 of the 60 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
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Election Outcomes and Affective Polarization in the United States
Phillips, J. B., & Warner, S. B. (2026) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129251411892 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“But this masks variation in post-election patterns across countries (e.g., Gidron and Sheffer 2024; Sheffer 2020), as well as the fact that American voters display this tendency particularly strongly (Andrews and Huang, 2024; Hamrak, 2025).”
Measuring affective polarization: Matching concepts to measures
Druckman, J. N., Klar, S., Krupnikov, Y., Levendusky, M., & Ryan, J. B. (2026) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.70152 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
What drives affective polarization? A systematic literature review
Kogel, M. J., & Zinnatullin, A. (2026) · European Political Science · doi:10.1017/s1682098326100642
“Randomized survey experiments by Hamrak (2025) indicate that results can move perceived status and threat: victories boost in-group warmth, whereas defeats show weaker or null effects on affective polarization.”
Love Blinds? Winners, In-Party Favoritism, and Support for Violations of Democratic Norms
Huang, Y.-S. (2026) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123426101574
“Randomized survey experiments in the United States yield similar findings (Hamrak 2025).”
InfluentialAmericans can imagine changing partisan affiliation: evidence from hypothetical scenarios
Coppock, A., Green, D. P., & Porter, E. (2026) · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1108/qjps-02-2025-0026
- Authors
- Hamrak, B.
- Affiliations
- Central European University (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Hamrak, Bence
- ORCID
- Hamrak, Bence
- Venue
- Electoral Studies
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2025-10
- Volume
- 97
- Pages
- 102967
- ISSN
- 0261-3794 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4413122971
- Cited by
- 5
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5
- FWCI
- 18.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Electoral Studies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Social Science Open Access Repository (GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Central European University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Keywords
- affective polarization, election results, partisan attachment, group identity, outgroup threat, democratic legitimacy
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