Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon
Abstract
There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity‐rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co‐located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate‐forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.
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Longer fire seasons prolong conducive burning conditions, potentially expanding areas susceptible to escaped deforestation fires and strengthening feedbacks in regional climate-fire dynamics.
“Longer fire seasons prolong conducive burning conditions, potentially expanding areas susceptible to escaped deforestation fires59 and subsequently strengthening feedbacks in regional climate-fire dynamics60.”
From Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 (2015) · cites this paper as [59]
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- Authors
- COCHRANE, M. A., & BARBER, C. P.
- Affiliations
- South Dakota State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- COCHRANE, MARK A.
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-02-06
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 601-612
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2128759273
- Cited by
- 274
- References
- 71
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 11.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- Amazon forest fires, climate change, anthropogenic land use, fire regimes, drought, forest decline, anthropogenic fire, fire risk management, landscape configuration, forest disturbance history, floristic composition, fire adaptation, road network
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