Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh
Open accessAbstract
Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the 'environmental refugee' hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, optimal precipitation and high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation of environmental migration in which households draw on a range of strategies to cope with environmental variability.
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Temporary migration is a common strategy to cope with economic stress in Bangladesh.
“Such temporary migration is a common strategy to cope with economic stress in Bangladesh (Call et al., 2017; Martin et al., 2014).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Call et al., 2017
Recent studies from Bangladesh report that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration.
“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Call et al., 2017
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- Authors
- Call, M. A., Gray, C., Yunus, M., & Emch, M.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (BD)
- Corresponding author
- Call, Maia A.
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-09
- Volume
- 46
- Pages
- 157-165
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5784445
- OpenAlex
- W2755039270
- Cited by
- 166
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 5
- FWCI
- 32.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/ (am, 384 d)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-017 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-037 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-012 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-029 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-004 (stm-asf)
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- Population Research Training (T32 HD007168)
- Population Research Infrastructure Program (R24 HD050924)
- Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (BCS-1560970)
- Global Affairs Canada (GAC)
- Swedish International Development Cooperative Agency (SIDA)
- Department for International Development (UK Aid)
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- temporary migration, environmental migration, climate change, environmental variability, floods, precipitation, temperature, livelihoods, environmental refugees, Matlab, Bangladesh, demographic surveillance, event history analysis
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