An empirical characterization of fair machine learning for clinical risk prediction
Open accessAbstract
The use of machine learning to guide clinical decision making has the potential to worsen existing health disparities. Several recent works frame the problem as that of algorithmic fairness, a framework that has attracted considerable attention and criticism. However, the appropriateness of this framework is unclear due to both ethical as well as technical considerations, the latter of which include trade-offs between measures of fairness and model performance that are not well-understood for predictive models of clinical outcomes. To inform the ongoing debate, we conduct an empirical study to characterize the impact of penalizing group fairness violations on an array of measures of model performance and group fairness. We repeat the analysis across multiple observational healthcare databases, clinical outcomes, and sensitive attributes. We find that procedures that penalize differences between the distributions of predictions across groups induce nearly-universal degradation of multiple performance metrics within groups. On examining the secondary impact of these procedures, we observe heterogeneity of the effect of these procedures on measures of fairness in calibration and ranking across experimental conditions. Beyond the reported trade-offs, we emphasize that analyses of algorithmic fairness in healthcare lack the contextual grounding and causal awareness necessary to reason about the mechanisms that lead to health disparities, as well as about the potential of algorithmic fairness methods to counteract those mechanisms. In light of these limitations, we encourage researchers building predictive models for clinical use to step outside the algorithmic fairness frame and engage critically with the broader sociotechnical context surrounding the use of machine learning in healthcare.
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PD-ai models use unstructured information such as gender, sex, ethnicity, BMI, medical history, and medical prescription as input for outcome prediction.
“Unstructured information such as gender, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and medical prescription is utilized as the input for outcome prediction in PD-ai models [92,111].”
From Artificial intelligence bias in medical system designs: a systematic review (2023) · cites this paper as [111]
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"The Human Body is a Black Box": Supporting Clinical Decision-Making with Deep LearningPreprint
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The implicit fairness criterion of unconstrained learningPreprint
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Classification with Fairness Constraints: A Meta-Algorithm with Provable GuaranteesPreprint
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Fair Predictors under Distribution ShiftPreprint
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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A toolbox for surfacing health equity harms and biases in large language models
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Self-citationGuo, L. L., Pfohl, S. R., Fries, J., Johnson, A. E. W., Posada, J., Aftandilian, C., Shah, N., & Sung, L. (2022) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-022-06484-1 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Pfohl, S. R., Foryciarz, A., & Shah, N. H.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pfohl, Stephen R.
- Venue
- Journal of Biomedical Informatics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-01
- Volume
- 113
- Pages
- 103621
- ISSN
- 1532-0464 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7871979
- OpenAlex
- W3043023066
- Cited by
- 164
- References
- 133
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 22.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Biomedical Informatics (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DGE-1656518)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
- Keywords
- algorithmic fairness, clinical risk prediction, health disparities, fairness-performance trade-off, ranking fairness, sensitive attributes, clinical decision support
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Delivery of Health Care, Empirical Research
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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