Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs

May combine two claims.

Workers who in earlier decades would have qualified for mass expertise jobs in clerical, administrative and production occupations were instead shunted into non-routine, hands-on service occupations, placing downward pressure on already low wages for this work.

“Workers who in earlier decades would have qualified for mass expertise jobs in clerical, ad-ministrative and production occupations were instead shunted into non-routine, hands-on service occupations.This placed downward pressure on already low wages for this work”

• cites Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2022 sourcePartly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Some nations already use AI to heavily surveil their populations, squelch viewpoints that depart from official narratives and identify and subsequently punish dissidents, and they are rapidly exporting these capabilities to like-minded autocracies.

“Some nations already use AI to heavily surveil their populations, squelch viewpoints that depart from official narratives and identify (and subsequently punish) dissidents -and they are rapidly exporting these capabilities to like-minded autocracies (Beraja et al., 2023;Mozur et al., 2022;Kroupe, 2022).”

• cites Beraja et al., 2023 sourcePartly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Mozur et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Kroupe, 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Doctors did not understand how to use the AI tool effectively; when AI offered confident predictions, doctors frequently overrode those predictions with their own, and when AI offered uncertain predictions, doctors frequently overrode their own better predictions with those supplied by the machine.

“That's because doctors did not understand how to use the AI tool effectively; when AI offered confident predictions, doctors frequently overrode those predictions with their own.When AI offered uncertain predictions, doctors frequently overrode their own better predictions with those supplied by the machine.”

• cites Agarwal et al., 2023 sourcePartly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

Support workers buffered by the AI tool experienced significantly less hostility both from their clients and toward their clients.

“Buffered by the AI tool, support workers experienced significantly less hostility both from their clients and also toward their clients.”

• cites Brynjolfsson et al., 2023 sourcePartly supported

  Section 4.6.1 (Sentiment; page unavailable) reports improved customer sentiment after AI deployment, consistent with less hostility from clients. But it reports no detectable effect on agent sentiment, so the claim that workers were significantly less hostile toward clients is not supported. The study measures sentiment rather than hostility directly. (LLM, conf=0.91)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Expertise is in constant flux; forms that once commanded a substantial market premium are now either antiquated or automated.

“Expertise is in constant flux.Forms that once commanded a substantial market premiumfarriery, typesetting, fur-trapping, spell-checking -are all now either antiquated or automated.”

May combine two claims.

Knowledge of rules is necessary but not sufficient for high-stakes judgment cases.

“Knowledge of rules is necessary but not sufficient for such cases.”

May combine two claims.

Four years after the Covid pandemic's onset, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen back to its pre-Covid nadir while total employment has risen to nearly three million above its pre-Covid peak.

“Four years after the Covid pandemic's onset, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen back to its pre-Covid nadir while total employment has risen to nearly three million above its pre-Covid peak”

• cites US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Rather than catalyzing a new era of mass expertise as did the Industrial Revolution, computerization fed a four-decade-long trend of rising inequality.

“Thus, rather than catalyzing a new era of mass expertise as did the Industrial Revolution, computerization fed a four-decade-long trend of rising inequality.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many of the lowest-paid jobs in industrialized countries are found in hands-on service occupations: food service, cleaning and janitorial services, security, and personal care.

“Many of the lowest-paid jobs in industrialized countries are found in hands-on service occupations: food service, cleaning and janitorial services, security, and personal care.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Artificial Intelligence marks an inflection point in the economic value of human expertise.

“Like the Industrial and Computer revolutions before it, Artificial Intelligence marks an inflection point in the economic value of human expertise.”

May combine two claims.

Air traffic controllers were paid a median annual salary of $132,250 in 2022, nearly four times the $33,380 median annual pay of crossing guards.

“air traffic controllers were paid a median annual salary of $132,250 in 2022, or nearly four times the $33,380 median annual pay of crossing guards.”

• cites Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Labor (2023b)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Computers are symbolic processors that access, analyze and act upon abstract information.

“computers are symbolic processors that access, analyze and act upon abstract information.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Moving forward, AI could ultimately supplement the expert judgment of NPs engaging in a broader scope of medical care tasks.

“Moving forward, AI could ultimately supplement the expert judgment of NPs engaging in a broader scope of medical care tasks.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI is not trustworthy with facts and numbers-it does not respect rules.

“AI is not trustworthy with facts and numbers -it does not respect rules.”

May combine two claims.

This required launching new training programs, developing a certification regime and winning a change in the scope of medical practice regulations after a battle with the American Medical Association.

“This required launching new training programs, developing a certification regime and winning a change in the scope of medical practice regulations after a hard-fought (and perhaps never-ending) battle with the physicians' primary lobbying arm, the American Medical Association.”

May combine two claims.

The industrialized world is awash in jobs, and it is going to stay that way.

“The industrialized world is awash in jobs, and it's going to stay that way.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI is a tool, like a calculator or a chainsaw, and tools generally are not substitutes for expertise but levers for its application.

“AI is a tool, like a calculator or a chainsaw, and tools generally aren't substitutes for expertise but rather levers for its application.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Among the marketers, grant writers, consultants, managers and other diverse professionals recruited to the study, half were randomly given access to and encouraged to use ChatGPT for writing tasks.

“Among the marketers, grant writers, consultants, managers and other diverse professionals recruited to the study, half were randomly given access to (and encouraged to use) ChatGPT for writing tasks.”

• cites Noy and Zhang, 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

This would improve the quality of jobs for workers without college degrees, moderate earnings inequality, and lower the cost of key services such as healthcare, education and legal expertise.

“This would improve the quality of jobs for workers without college degrees, moderate earnings inequality, and -akin to what the Industrial Revolution did for consumer goods -lower the cost of key services such as healthcare, education and legal expertise.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Workers without college degrees can acquire the complementary knowledge and foundational training needed to perform higher-stakes decision-making tasks with AI support.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Institutional and regulatory barriers that currently restrict high-stakes tasks to elite experts can be changed or circumvented sufficiently for AI to enable broader worker performance.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Many of the most highly paid jobs in industrialized economies did not exist until specific technological or social innovations created a need for them.

“many of the most highly paid jobs in industrialized economies -oncologists, software engineers, patent lawyers, therapists, movie stars -did not exist until specific technological or social innovations created a need for them.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

A technology that could invert this process would support and supplement judgment, enabling a larger set of non-elite workers to engage in high-stakes decision-making, and would temper the monopoly power that doctors hold over medical care, lawyers over document production, software engineers over computer code, and professors over undergraduate education.

“It would support and supplement judgment, thus enabling a larger set of non-elite workers to engage in high-stakes decision-making.It would simultaneously temper the monopoly power that doctors hold over medical care, lawyers over document production, software engineers over computer code, professors over undergraduate education, etc.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The areas of expertise that will be eclipsed or gain currency shift across technological epochs.

“But the areas of expertise that will be eclipsed or gain currency shifts across technological epochs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Computerization devalued and displaced the procedural expertise that was the stock-in-trade of many middle-skill workers.

“Simultaneously, computerization devalued and displaced the procedural expertise that was the stock-in-trade of many middle-skill workers.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Professionals develop expert judgment by spending years in supervised practice like apprenticeships.

“professionals develop expert judgment by spending years in supervised practice like apprenticeships”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Artificial Intelligence is this inversion technology.

“Artificial Intelligence is this inversion technology.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

NPs are elite decision-makers whose work combines procedural expertise with expert judgment to confront one-off patient cases where the stakes for judicious decision-making are extraordinarily high.

“NPs are elite decision-makers.Their work combines procedural expertise with expert judgment so they can confront one-off patient cases where the stakes for judicious decision-making are extraordinarily high.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Computerization automated away the mass expertise of the non-elite workers on whom professionals used to rely.

“computers automated away the mass expertise of the non-elite workers on whom professionals used to rely.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Jobs that require little training or certification are typically found at the bottom of the wage ladder.

“Jobs that require little training or certification, such as restaurant servers, janitors, manual laborers and (even) childcare workers, are typically found at the bottom of the wage ladder.”

May combine two claims.

Becoming an air traffic controller requires years of education and on-the-job apprenticeship, making it a scarce skill.

“Becoming an air traffic controller requires years of education and on-thejob apprenticeship -it is a scarce skill.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Between 2011 and 2022, NP employment nearly tripled to approximately 224,000, with employment projected to grow by around 40% over the next decade, well above the national average.

“Between 2011 and 2022, NP employment nearly tripled to approximately 224,000, with employment projected to grow by around 40% over the next decade, well above the national average.”

May combine two claims.

This eroded the value of mass expertise, just as the technologies of the Industrial Revolution previously eroded the value of artisanal expertise.

“This eroded the value of mass expertise, just as the technologies of the Industrial Revolution previously eroded the value of artisanal expertise.”

May combine two claims.

Even as computerization eroded the value of mass expertise, it augmented the accuracy, productivity and thoroughness of expert professional judgment, thus magnifying its value.

“This augmented the accuracy, productivity and thoroughness of expert professional judgment, thus magnifying its value.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Pre-AI computing made the expert judgment of professional decision-makers more consequential and more valuable by speeding the task of acquiring and organizing information.

“Recall that the advent of pre-AI computing made the expert judgment of professional decisionmakers more consequential and more valuable by speeding the task of acquiring and organizing information.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

To master the tools, rules and exacting requirements of mass expert work, workers frequently needed literacy and numeracy.

“To master the tools, rules and exacting requirements of this work, workers frequently needed literacy and numeracy.”

May combine two claims.

These hands-on service jobs are low paid because they require little expertise, even though they demand dexterity, sightedness, simple communication skills and common sense.

“Although these jobs demand dexterity, sightedness, simple communication skills and common sense -and are therefore non-routine tasks, ill-suited to computerization-they are nevertheless low paid because they require little expertise”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

As AI's facility in expert judgment becomes more reliable, incisive and accessible in the years ahead, it will emerge as a near-ubiquitous presence in our working lives.

“As AI's facility in expert judgment becomes more reliable, incisive and accessible in the years ahead, it will emerge as a near-ubiquitous presence in our working lives.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Conditions for rank-and-file workers in early mass production were typically hazardous and grueling, requiring no specialized expertise beyond a willingness to labor under punishing conditions for extremely low pay.

“conditions for rank-andfile workers were typically hazardous and grueling, requiring no specialized expertise beyond a willingness to labor under punishing conditions for extremely low pay.”

May combine two claims.

An urgent need for more crossing guards could be filled by most air traffic controllers, but the reverse would not be true.

“An urgent need for more crossing guards could be filled by most air traffic controllers but the reverse would not be true.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI will automate existing work, rendering certain existing areas of expertise irrelevant.

“AI will certainly also automate existing work, rendering certain existing areas of expertise irrelevant.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

AI's capacity to depart from script, to improvise based on training and experience, enables it to engage in expert judgment-a capability that until now has fallen within the province of elite experts.

“AI's capacity to depart from script, to improvise based on training and experience, enables it to engage in expert judgment -a capability that, until now, has fallen within the province of elite experts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

As computerization advanced, the earnings of workers with four-year college and especially graduate degrees rose steeply.

“As computerization advanced, the earnings of workers with four-year college and especially graduate degrees like those in law, medicine and science and engineering, rose steeply.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Rather than relying on hardcoded procedures, AI learns by example, gains mastery without explicit instruction and acquires capabilities that it was not explicitly engineered to possess.

“Rather than relying on hardcoded procedures, AI learns by example, gains mastery without explicit instruction and acquires capabilities that it was not explicitly engineered to possess.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Expertise commands a market premium if it is both necessary for accomplishing an objective and relatively scarce.

“Expertise commands a market premium if it is both necessary for accomplishing an objective and relatively scarce.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The stakes of most current AI-assisted everyday decisions are inconsequential, but they will rise as AI advances and takes on higher value assignments.

“The stakes of most of these decisions are inconsequential at present, unless you're sleeping at the wheel of your Tesla, but they will rise as AI advances and takes on higher value assignments in our lives.”

May combine two claims.

Federal Reserve Bank economists Emily Dohrman and Bruce Fallick estimate that over the last four decades, the prices of healthcare and education rose by around 200 and 600%, respectively, relative to U.S. household incomes.

“Federal Reserve Bank economists Emily Dohrman and Bruce Fallick estimate that over the last four decades, the prices of healthcare and education rose by around 200 and 600%, respectively, relative to U.S. household incomes”

• cites Dohrman and Fallick, 2020 sourceNot checked yet

  Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Prior to the computer era, the human mind was essentially the only tool for symbolic processing.

“Prior to the computer era, there was essentially only one tool for symbolic processing: the human mind.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The implications of AI have a relevant parallel in economic history, but the parallel runs counter to the present.

“I believe that the implications of AI have a relevant parallel in economic history, but the parallel runs counter to the present.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

AI's unique opportunity for the labor market is to extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise.

“The unique opportunity that AI offers to the labor market is to extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The virtuous combination of rising industrial productivity and rising demand for worker expertise helped build a new middle class in industrializing countries.

“This virtuous combination of rising industrial productivity and rising demand for worker expertise helped build a new middle class in industrializing countries”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

AI is remarkably effective at acquiring tacit knowledge.

“AI is, however, remarkably effective at acquiring tacit knowledge.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Tools are useless at best and hazardous at worst to those lacking relevant training and experience.

“Conversely, tools are useless at best -and hazardous at worst -to those lacking relevant training and experience.”

May combine two claims.

The primary reason this sharing of elite decision-making rights was possible is institutional: in the early 1960s, a group of nurses and doctors recognized a growing shortage of primary care physicians, perceived that registered nurses' skills were underused, and pioneered a new medical occupation.

“The primary answer is institutional.In the early 1960s, a group of nurses and doctors recognized a growing shortage of primary care physicians, perceived that the skills of registered nurses were underused and pioneered a new medical occupation to address both shortfalls”

• cites Asubonteng et al., 1995Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Modern elite experts combine procedural knowledge with expert judgment and, frequently, creativity, to tackle specific, high-stakes and often uncertain cases.

“modern elite experts such as doctors, architects, pilots, electricians and educators, combine procedural knowledge with expert judgment and, frequently, creativity, to tackle specific, high stakes and often uncertain cases.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Nurse Practitioners are Registered Nurses who hold an additional master's degree that certifies them to administer and interpret diagnostic tests, assess and diagnose patients, and prescribe medications-services that were once exclusively within the domain of physicians.

“NPs are Registered Nurses (RNs) who hold an additional master's degree that certifies them to administer and interpret diagnostic tests, assess and diagnose patients, and prescribe medications -services that were once exclusively within the domain of physicians.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Artisans spent years acquiring procedural expertise and expert judgment.

“Artisans spent years acquiring at least two broad forms of expertise: procedural expertise, meaning following highly practiced steps to produce an outcome; and expert judgment, meaning adapting those procedures to variable instances.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Tools enable workers with proper training and judgment to accomplish tasks that were previously time-consuming, failure-prone or infeasible.

“By shortening the distance from intention to result, tools enable workers with proper training and judgment to accomplish tasks that were previously time-consuming, failure-prone or infeasible.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

As computing advanced, digital machines proved more proficient and much less expensive than workers in mastering tools and following rules.

“As computing advanced, digital machines proved more proficient and much less expensive than workers in mastering tools and following rules.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The utopian vision of the Information Age was that computerization would flatten economic hierarchies by democratizing information.

“The utopian vision of our Information Age was that computers would flatten economic hierarchies by democratizing information.”

• cites Friedman, 2005Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Artificial Intelligence's capabilities are precisely the inverse of pre-AI computing's.

“Artificial Intelligence's capabilities are precisely the inverse.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI offers vast tools for augmenting workers and enhancing work.

“AI offers vast tools for augmenting workers and enhancing work.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In a 2023 paper in Science, Noy and Zhang conducted an online experiment focused on writing tasks.

“In a 2023 paper in Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate students Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang conducted an online experiment focused on writing tasks.”

• cites Noy and Zhang, 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Like a human expert, AI can weave formal knowledge (rules) with acquired experience to make or support one-off, high-stakes decisions.

“Like a human expert, AI can weave formal knowledge (rules) with acquired experience to make -or support -one-off, high-stakes decisions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

In 2022, the median Nurse Practitioner earned an annual salary of $125,900.

“In 2022, the median Nurse Practitioner earned an annual salary of $125,900.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

For workers with foundational training and experience, AI can help leverage expertise so they can do higher-value work.

“For workers with foundational training and experience, AI can help to leverage expertise so they can do higher-value work.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

AI will instantiate new human capabilities, goods and services that create demand for expertise we have yet to foresee.

“It will further instantiate new human capabilities, new goods and services that create demand for expertise we have yet to foresee.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The 60% of adults without a bachelor's degree have been relegated to non-expert, low-paid service jobs.

“the 60% of adults without a bachelor's degree have been relegated to non-expert, low-paid service jobs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Prior to the Industrial Revolution, goods were handmade by skilled artisans.

“Prior to the Industrial Revolution, goods were handmade by skilled artisans”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The era of Artificial Intelligence heralds another transformation in expertise.

“The era of Artificial Intelligence heralds another such transformation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

The erroneous assumption that the future is determined by technological inevitabilities deprives citizens of agency in making or recognizing collective decisions that shape the future.

“The erroneous assumption that the future is determined by technological inevitabilities -what Shoshana Zuboff terms inevitabilism -deprives citizens of agency in making, or even recognizing, the collective decisions that will shape the future”

• cites Zuboff, 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

AI's primary role will be to advise, coach and alert decision-makers as they apply expert judgment.

“Its primary role will be to advise, coach and alert decision-makers as they apply expert judgment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

AI's decision-making prowess has already bled into the edges of our everyday lives.

“AI's decision-making prowess has already bled into the edges of our everyday lives.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI will change the labor market by reshaping the value and nature of human expertise, not by eliminating jobs as Musk and Hinton believe.

“AI will change the labor market, but not in the way Musk and Hinton believe.Instead, it will reshape the value and nature of human expertise.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Expertise is the primary source of labor's value in the US and other industrialized countries.

“Expertise is the primary source of labor's value in the US and other industrialized countries.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

When an email application proposes to complete a sentence, a smartwatch asks if you've taken a fall, or a car nudges steering to re-center in a lane, AI is supplying expert judgment to interpret intentions and guide actions.

“When your email application proposes to complete your sentence, your smartwatch asks if you've taken a fall or your car nudges your steering wheel to re-center your vehicle in a lane, AI is supplying expert judgment to interpret your intentions and guide your actions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Pre-AI computing's core capability was its faultless and nearly costless execution of routine, procedural tasks, and its Achilles' heel was its inability to master non-routine tasks requiring tacit knowledge.

“Pre-AI, computing's core capability was its faultless and nearly costless execution of routine, procedural tasks.Its Achilles' heel was its inability to master non-routine tasks requiring tacit knowledge.”

May combine two claims.

Making a persuasive argument, telling a joke, riding a bicycle or recognizing an adult's face in a baby photograph are subtle and complex undertakings that people accomplish without formal understanding of what they are doing.

“Making a persuasive argument, telling a joke, riding a bicycle or recognizing an adult's face in a baby photograph, are subtle and complex undertakings that people accomplish without formal understanding of what they are doing”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many expert personal service occupations owe their livelihoods not to specific innovations but to rising incomes, fluctuating fashions and shifting economic incentives.

“Many expert personal service occupations, such as vegan chefs, college admissions consultants and personal trainers, owe their livelihoods not to specific innovations but to rising incomes, fluctuating fashions and shifting economic incentives.”

May combine two claims.

Automation did not give rise to airplanes, indoor plumbing, penicillin, CRISPR or television.

“Automation did not, for example, give rise to airplanes, indoor plumbing, penicillin, CRISPR or television.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

There were no air traffic controllers, electricians or gene editors until supporting innovations gave rise to the need for these specialized skill sets.

“There were no air traffic controllers, electricians or gene editors until supporting innovations gave rise to the need for these specialized skill sets.”

May combine two claims.

Navigation apps automated the expertise of London cabbies, but radar, GPS and two-way radios did the opposite for air traffic controllers; innovation in this case created a new type of expert work.

“In economic parlance, navigation apps automated the expertise of London cabbies.But radar, GPS and two-way radios did the opposite for air traffic controllers.Innovation in this case did not automate, it created a new type of expert work.”

May combine two claims.

Tools can and do encroach on their users' expertise, but the opposite is just as often true.

“Tools can and do encroach on their users' expertise.But the opposite is just as often true.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The most valuable tools complement human capabilities and open new frontiers of possibility; the most pedestrian ones incrementally outperform existing tools.

“The most valuable tools complement human capabilities and open new frontiers of possibility.The most pedestrian ones incrementally outperform existing tools.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

AI can extend the reach of expertise by building stories atop a good foundation and sound structure; absent this footing, it is a structural hazard.

“AI can extend the reach of expertise by building stories atop a good foundation and sound structure.Absent this footing, it is a structural hazard.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

AI poses a real risk to labor markets, but not that of a technologically jobless future; the risk is the devaluation of expertise.

“AI poses a real risk to labor markets, but not that of a technologically jobless future.The risk is the devaluation of expertise.”

May combine two claims.

There is no economic law that says that the forces of automation and new work creation are equal and offsetting; recent evidence indicates that the former is outpacing the latter.

“There is no economic law that says that the forces of automation and new work creation are equal and offsetting; in fact, recent evidence indicates that the former is outpacing the latter (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2022;Autor et al., forthcoming).”

• cites Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2022 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Autor et al., forthcomingNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

These countervailing effects will create winners and losers, and the adjustment may be wrenching.

“These countervailing effects will create winners and losers, and the adjustment may be wrenching.”

May combine two claims.

Japanese retailers have shortened operating hours, installed avatars and hired foreign students to cope with the labour shortage.

“In the rapidly aging country of Japan, for example, the Financial Times reports that”

• cites Inagaki et al., 2024Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

North Korea possesses a phalanx of nuclear weapons but no civilian nuclear power plants; Japan possesses no nuclear weapons and dozens of civilian nuclear power plants.

“North Korea possesses a phalanx of nuclear weapons but no civilian nuclear power plants.Japan, the only country against which offensive nuclear weapons have been used, possesses no nuclear weapons and dozens of civilian nuclear power plants.”

May combine two claims.

Rather than automating existing tasks, these innovations opened fundamentally new vistas of human possibility and generated new employment and new demands for expertise.

“Rather than automating existing tasks, these innovations opened fundamentally new vistas of human possibility.Simultaneously, they generated new employment and new demands for expertise.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Replicating our existing capabilities, simply at greater speed and lower cost, is a minor achievement.

“Replicating our existing capabilities, simply at greater speed and lower cost, is a minor achievement.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The unique opportunity that AI offers humanity is to turn back the tide of eroded job quality by extending the relevance, reach and value of human expertise for a larger set of workers.

“The unique opportunity that AI offers humanity is to turn back this tide -to extend the relevance, reach and value of human expertise for a larger set of workers.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The quality, dignity and respect of a substantial minority of jobs has eroded over the past four decades as computerization has marched onward and inequality has grown more prevalent.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Scientific mastery of controlled nuclear fission in the 1940s enabled nations to produce both massively destructive weapons and near-carbon-free electricity generation plants.

“Scientific mastery of controlled nuclear fission in the 1940s enabled nations to produce both massively destructive weapons and near-carbon-free electricity generation plants.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

To harness free expertise on tap, a person needed foundational expertise: procedural knowledge for handling high voltage circuits and expert judgment for problem-solving when the job went off script.

“To harness the free expertise on tap, I needed foundational expertise: procedural knowledge for handling high voltage circuits, expert judgment for problem-solving when the job went off script.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Airplanes are not our competitors; we simply couldn't fly without them.

“Airplanes are not our competitors; we simply couldn't fly without them.”

May combine two claims.

ChatGPT did not eliminate the role of expertise; the best writers remained at the top using either set of tools, ChatGPT enabled the most capable to write faster and the less capable to write both faster and better, and the productivity gap between adequate and excellent writers shrank.

“ChatGPT did not eliminate the role of expertise.While the best writers remained at the top of the heap using either set of tools, ChatGPT enabled the most capable to write faster and the less capable to write both faster and better -so the productivity gap between adequate and excellent writers shrank.”

• cites Noy and Zhang, 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

After a century of sustained productivity growth, agriculture's share of U.S. employment in 2022 was around 1%, and not because we are eating less.

“After a century of sustained productivity growth, that share in 2022 was around 1% -and not because we're eating less (US Department of Agriculture, 2024).”

• cites US Department of Agriculture, 2024Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The most important innovations have never been about automation.

“The likely reason is that the most important innovations have never been about automation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Even if opposing forces of automation and new work creation were to arm-wrestle to a draw, it is unlikely that workers whose expertise will be displaced by AI will be the same ones whose expertise is made newly valuable.

“Even if these opposing forces were to arm-wrestle one another to a draw, however, it is unlikely that workers whose expertise will be displaced by AI will be the same ones whose expertise is made newly valuable.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

This alternative path is not an inevitable or intrinsic consequence of AI development; it is technologically plausible, economically coherent and morally compelling.

“This alternative path is not an inevitable or intrinsic consequence of AI development.It is, however, technologically plausible, economically coherent and morally compelling.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

OpenAI's charter defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.

“For example, the charter of OpenAI, developer of ChatGPT and DALL-E, defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as”

• cites OpenAI, 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

A future where humans supply only generic, undifferentiated labor is one where no one is an expert because everyone is an expert; in this world, labor is disposable and most wealth would accrue to owners of Artificial Intelligence patents.

“A future where humans supply only generic, undifferentiated labor is one where no one is an expert because everyone is an expert.In this world, labor is disposable and most wealth would accrue to owners of Artificial Intelligence patents.”

Not yet classified.

Quality improved not simply because workers were asleep at the wheel while AI did the driving; workers applied their expertise and judgment to produce the final product while harnessing AI's suggestions.

“But quality improved not simply because workers were asleep at the wheel while AI did the driving.Workers were called upon to apply their expertise and judgment to produce the final product of code, text or customer support, while also harnessing AI's suggestions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In other settings, the same underlying AI technologies are used to advance medical drug discovery, including the development of Covid vaccines, enable real-time translation of spoken languages and provide free, customized tutoring to struggling learners and precocious autodidacts.

“In other settings, the same underlying AI technologies are used to advance medical drug discovery (including the development of Covid vaccines) (Qureshi et al., 2023;Dolgin, 2023), enable real-time translation of spoken languages and provide free, customized tutoring to struggling learners and precocious autodidacts.”

• cites Qureshi et al., 2023 sourceNot checked yet

  Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

• cites Dolgin, 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Agarwal et al. found that AI did not improve the quality of radiologists' diagnoses even though AI's predictions were at least as accurate as nearly two-thirds of the doctors studied.

“In an experiment that randomly allocated the availability of AI assistance to professional radiologists, Nikhil Agarwal of MIT and his coauthors have found that AI did not improve the quality of radiologists' diagnoseseven though AI's predictions were at least as accurate as nearly two-thirds of the doctors studied (Agarwal et al., 2023).”

• cites Agarwal et al., 2023 sourceNot checked yet

  Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

History and scholarship demonstrate that the technologies societies develop and the way they use them are determined foremost by the institutions in which they were created and the incentives under which they are deployed.

“History and scholarship demonstrate that the technologies that societies develop and the way that they use them -for exploitation or emancipation, for broadening prosperity or concentrating wealth -are determined foremost by the institutions in which they were created and the incentives under which they are deployed.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The industrialized world is long on jobs and short on workers.

“Amid a deluge of press reports on the impending AI robocalypse, one could easily fail to notice that the industrialized world is long on jobs and short on workers.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The ominous statements by AI visionaries are likely wrong, a flattening of the complexity of innovation into a single dimension of automation.

“The most charitable thing I can say about these ominous statements is that they are likely wrong -a flattening of the complexity of innovation into a single dimension of automation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Innovation invariably provides new tools, and tools are often implements of automation.

“Innovation invariably provides new tools, and tools are often implements of automation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

The more powerful the tool, the higher the stakes.

“And the more powerful the tool, the higher the stakes.”

May combine two claims.

AI will automate the core tasks of some occupations, eliminate others and dramatically reshape some of those that remain; it will simultaneously instantiate new goods and services, generate new demands for expertise and open new possibilities for human advancement.

“AI will automate the core tasks of some occupations, eliminate others and dramatically reshape some of those that remain.It will simultaneously instantiate new goods and services, generate new demands for expertise and open new possibilities for human advancement -though it is always difficult to predict what those will be.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Mustafa Suleyman writes, If the coming wave really is as general and wide-ranging as it appears, how will humans compete?

“In a 2023 New York Times bestselling book, the AI pioneer Mustafa Suleyman writes,”

• cites Suleyman and Bhaskar, 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Rather than making expertise unnecessary, tools often make it more valuable by extending its efficacy and scope.

“My point: rather than making expertise unnecessary, tools often make it more valuable by extending its efficacy and scope.”

May combine two claims.

The majority of contemporary jobs are not remnants of historical occupations that have so far escaped automation; instead, they are new job specialties inextricably linked to specific technological innovations and demand novel expertise unavailable or unimagined in earlier eras.

“The majority of contemporary jobs are not remnants of historical occupations that have so far escaped automation (Autor et al., forthcoming).Instead, they are new job specialties that are inextricably linked to specific technological innovations; they demand novel expertise that was unavailable or unimagined in earlier eras.”

• cites Autor et al., forthcomingNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Extending the relevance, reach and value of human expertise could dampen earnings inequality, lower the costs of key services like healthcare and education, and help restore the quality, stature and agency that has been lost to too many workers and jobs.

“Not only could this dampen earnings inequality and lower the costs of key services like healthcare and education, but it could also help restore the quality, stature and agency that has been lost to too many workers and jobs.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The quality, dignity and respect of a substantial minority of jobs has eroded over the past four decades as computerization has marched onward and inequality has grown more prevalent.

May combine two claims.

In the Noy and Zhang study, the biggest quality improvements were concentrated at the bottom; the least effective writers in the ChatGPT group were about as effective as the median writer without ChatGPT.

“Remarkably, the biggest quality improvements were concentrated at the bottom.The least effective writers in the ChatGPT group were about as effective as the median writer without ChatGPTa huge quality jump (Noy and Zhang, 2023).”

• cites Noy and Zhang, 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

The benefit of automation from AI was paid in time savings; AI wrote the first draft of computer code, advertising copy and customer support responses.

“The benefit of automation was paid in time savings.AI wrote the first draft of computer code, advertising copy and customer support responses.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

How AI is deployed, and who gains and loses out in the process, will depend upon the collective and conflicting choices of industry, governments, foreign nations, non-governmental organizations, universities, worker organizations and individuals.

“How AI is deployed, and who gains and loses out in the process, will depend upon the collective (and conflicting) choices of industry, governments, foreign nations, non-governmental organizations, universities, worker organizations and individuals.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Artificial Intelligence is far more malleable and broadly applicable than nuclear technology, and hence the range of both constructive and destructive uses is far wider.

“Artificial Intelligence is far more malleable and broadly applicable than nuclear technology, and hence the range of both constructive and destructive uses is far wider.”

May combine two claims.

London cab drivers train for years to memorize all the streets of London, but smartphone navigation apps have made this hard-earned expertise technologically obsolete and economically superfluous.

“London cab drivers, for example, train for years to memorize all the streets of London (Brown, 2011;Lydall, 2023)-but smartphone navigation apps have made this hard-earned expertise technologically obsolete and economically superfluous (Berger et al., 2018).”

• cites Brown, 2011Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Lydall, 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Berger et al., 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source