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Uncertainty and stress: Why it causes diseases and how it is mastered by the brain
Open accessAbstract
The term 'stress' - coined in 1936 - has many definitions, but until now has lacked a theoretical foundation. Here we present an information-theoretic approach - based on the 'free energy principle' - defining the essence of stress; namely, uncertainty. We address three questions: What is uncertainty? What does it do to us? What are our resources to master it? Mathematically speaking, uncertainty is entropy or 'expected surprise'. The 'free energy principle' rests upon the fact that self-organizing biological agents resist a tendency to disorder and must therefore minimize the entropy of their sensory states. Applied to our everyday life, this means that we feel uncertain, when we anticipate that outcomes will turn out to be something other than expected - and that we are unable to avoid surprise. As all cognitive systems strive to reduce their uncertainty about future outcomes, they face a critical constraint: Reducing uncertainty requires cerebral energy. The characteristic of the vertebrate brain to prioritize its own high energy is captured by the notion of the 'selfish brain'. Accordingly, in times of uncertainty, the selfish brain demands extra energy from the body. If, despite all this, the brain cannot reduce uncertainty, a persistent cerebral energy crisis may develop, burdening the individual by 'allostatic load' that contributes to systemic and brain malfunction (impaired memory, atherogenesis, diabetes and subsequent cardio- and cerebrovascular events). Based on the basic tenet that stress originates from uncertainty, we discuss the strategies our brain uses to avoid surprise and thereby resolve uncertainty.
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“Psychological and neural mechanisms through which uncertainty-inducing stressors elicit negative mental states, particularly anxiety, and may lead to psychopathology have been extensively described in the literature [31,35,36,57,119,120], and these models are broadly relevant in the present context.”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [120]
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“While sustained vigilance represents the initial adaptive response under conditions of uncertainty [35,120], it can develop into hypervigilance, that is, increased attention to threatening or potentially threatening stimuli.”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [120]
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Basu, A., Yang, J.-H., Yu, A. L., Glaeser-Khan, S., Rondeau, J. A., Feng, J., Krystal, J. H., Li, Y., & Kaye, A. P. (2024) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2024.01.025 · Cited by 37
The computational pharmacology of oculomotion
Parr, T., & Friston, K. J. (2019) · Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1007/s00213-019-05240-0 · Cited by 21
“This is an example of a functional diaschisis (Carrera and Tononi 2014; Fornito et al. 2015; Price et al. 2001), in which altering one part of a network has implications for all other parts.”
BackgroundSelf-citationMentalizing in mothers and children with type 1 diabetes
Costa‐Cordella, S., Luyten, P., Cohen, D., Salas, F. M., & Fonagy, P. (2020) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579419001706 · Cited by 27
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“In the early implementation stage, a higher IU was associated with a context- and valence-independent decrease of neural activity within l-ACC, an area assumed to subtend the behavioral and cognitive avoidance of exposure to uncertainty [6], and the continuous assessment of environmental uncertainty levels [68].”
BackgroundSubliminal (latent) processing of pain and its evolution to conscious awareness
Borsook, D., Youssef, A. M., Barakat, N., Sieberg, C. B., & Elman, I. (2018) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2018.02.015 · Cited by 21
Climate change, uncertainty and allostatic load
Crews, D. E., Kawa, N. C., Cohen, J. H., Ulmer, G. L., & Edes, A. N. (2019) · Annals of Human Biology · doi:10.1080/03014460.2019.1584243 · Cited by 26
“Uncertainty over access to food and water activate allostasis, redirecting internal energy allotments to food- and water-seeking activity (see Peters et al. 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialAutism Spectrum Disorder: A Neuro-Immunometabolic Hypothesis of the Developmental Origins
Frasch, M. G., Yoon, B.-J., Helbing, D. L., Snir, G., Antonelli, M. C., & Bauer, R. (2023) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology12070914 · Cited by 21
“This is combined with a body of neurobiological literature on the neuronal substrate of the brain’s stress and prediction networks [49].”
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A consideration of physiological regulation from the perspective of Bayesian enactivism
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The effect of stress and exercise on the learning performance of horses
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“As energy is required to change information that is already neurologically encoded [51], less energy may be required for people to make reference to their existing internal world models than is required for reasoning about new information.”
BackgroundMR/GR Signaling in the Brain during the Stress Response
de Kloet, E. R., & Meijer, O. C. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.87234 · Cited by 22
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“developing such disorders (Peters et al., 2017), and it can also make us less capable of coping with risky decision-making (Soares et al.”
BackgroundCross-talk between the HPA axis and addiction-related regions in stressful situations
Nikbakhtzadeh, M., Ranjbar, H., Moradbeygi, K., Zahedi, E., Bayat, M., Soti, M., & Shabani, M. (2023) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15525 · Cited by 24
“During stress, our body tries to regain its homeostasis and stability, which have become disrupted [3].”
BackgroundBody as First Teacher: The Role of Rhythmic Visceral Dynamics in Early Cognitive Development
Corcoran, A. W., Perrykkad, K., Feuerriegel, D., & Robinson, J. (2023) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916231185343 · Cited by 22
“…Quadt et al., 2018; R. Smith et al., 2020), including depression (Arnaldo et al., 2022; Badcock et al., 2017; Barrett et al., 2016; Seth & Friston, 2016; Stephan et al., 2016) and anxiety-related disorders (J. E. Clark et al., 2018; Gerrans & Murray, 2020; Linson et al., 2020; Peters et al., 2017).”
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“To reduce perceived uncertainty and stress, obtaining information plays an important role (Peters et al., 2017).”
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Life stress and uncertainty stress: which is more associated with unintentional injury?
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“Uncertainty stress management should be emphasized, including attention, learning and habituation of uncertainty stress cognition; it is critical to maintain hope, and resolve information problems (Peters et al., 2017).”
BackgroundGlobal mental health and HIV care: gaps and research priorities
Senn, T. E., Greenwood, G. L., & Rao, V. R. (2021) · Journal of the International AIDS Society · doi:10.1002/jia2.25714 · Cited by 20
“In addition, co-occurring factors, such as stigma, access to education and living in the context of structural poverty and a fragile health system have an impact on the mental health of PLWH [8].”
BackgroundUsing Gesture and Speech Communication Modalities for Safe Human-Drone Interaction in Construction
Zhu, Z., Cheng, J.-Y., Jeelani, I., & Gheisari, M. (2024) · Advanced Engineering Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.aei.2024.102827 · Cited by 20
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“These neuroenergetic alterations promote visceral fat accumulation (the wide-waisted phenotype), subcutaneous fat loss, and atherogenesis with subsequent cardiovascular events [28,31].”
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“There is evidence that social isolation and disconnection can induce major health problems (Peters et al., 2017).”
BackgroundButler, P. C., Bowers, A., Smith, A. P., Cohen‐Hatton, S. R., & Honey, R. C. (2021) · Human Factors The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society · doi:10.1177/00187208211041860 · Cited by 25
“…stress can reduce the capacity for deliberative decision making and increase the reliance on rules in a variety of contexts (Porcelli & Delgado, 2009; Schwabe et al., 2012; Starcke & Brand, 2012; see also, Janis & Mann, 1977; Kassam et al., 2009; Peters et al., 2017; Porcelli & Delgado, 2017).”
BackgroundPeters, A., Sprengell, M., & Kubera, B. (2022) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2022.104847 · Cited by 19
“This cooperation introduced two new relationships to the theory: first, how cerebral information processing – in which information-theoretic free energy is minimised – relates to brain energy metabolism – in which thermodynamic free energy is optimised (Peters et al., 2017); and second, how”
InfluentialSelf-citationRapid volumetric brain changes after acute psychosocial stress
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The traumatogenic potential of law enforcement home raids: An exploratory report.
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Ortblad, K. F., Musoke, D. K., Chanda, M. M., Ngabirano, T., Velloza, J., Haberer, J. E., McConnell, M. A., Oldenburg, C. E., & Bärnighausen, T. (2019) · JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes · doi:10.1097/qai.0000000000002224 · Cited by 18
Uncertainty and Coping During COVID-19
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Krupnik, V. (2024) · Frontiers in Neural Circuits · doi:10.3389/fncir.2024.1283372 · Cited by 19
Active Inference in Psychology and Psychiatry: Progress to Date?
Badcock, P. B., & Davey, C. G. (2024) · Entropy · doi:10.3390/e26100833 · Cited by 23
“Meanwhile, the conceptual reducibility of active inference to the need to minimise uncertainty or stress readily lends itself to clinical applications [185].”
BackgroundStress-induced failure of embodied cognition: A general model
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Metadata
- Authors
- Peters, A., McEwen, B. S., & Friston, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Lübeck (DE)
- Rockefeller University (US)
- Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Peters, Achim
- Venue
- Progress in Neurobiology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-09
- Volume
- 156
- Pages
- 164-188
- ISSN
- 0301-0082 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2618517468
- Cited by
- 652
- References
- 216
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 97 · 2021: 103 · 2020: 74 · 2019: 48 · 2018: 32 · 2017: 8
- FWCI
- 4.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Progress in Neurobiology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Embodied and Extended Cognition
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Behavioral Neuroscience › Stress Responses and Cortisol
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory and Neural Mechanisms
- Keywords
- uncertainty, stress, free energy principle, information theory, entropy (information theory), surprise, brain energy metabolism, allostasis, allostatic load
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Brain, Diabetes Mellitus, Humans, Memory Disorders, Stress, Psychological, Uncertainty, Atherosclerosis
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