Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

Aldersley, Andrew; Murray, Steven J.; Cornell, Sarah E.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032

Cited by 311Fire effects on ecosystemsFire Detection and Safety SystemsClimate variability and models

Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

Aldersley, Andrew, Murray, Steven J., Cornell, Sarah E.·2011·Science of The Total Environment

DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032

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Abstract

Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature (> 28 °C), intermediate annual rainfall (350-1100 mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by region). However, the regions of highest fire incidence do not show clear and systematic behaviour. Thresholds seen in the regression tree split conditions vary, as do the interplay between climatic and anthropogenic variables, so challenges remain in developing robust predictive insight for the most wildfire-threatened regions. Anthropogenic activities alter the spatial extent of wildfires. Gross domestic product (GDP) density is the most important human predictor variable at the regional scale, and burned area is always greater when GDP density is minimised. South America is identified as a region of concern, as anthropogenic factors (notably land conversions) outweigh climatic drivers of wildfire burned area.

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Authors: Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., & Cornell, S. E.
Affiliations: University of Bristol (GB)
Corresponding author: Aldersley, Andrew
ORCID: Cornell, Sarah E.
Venue: Science of The Total Environment
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2011-08
Volume: 409
Issue: 18
Pages: 3472-3481
ISSN: 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032
OpenAlex: W2122136101
Cited by: 311
References: 58
Citations by year: 2026: 15 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 7
FWCI: 8.48
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (publishedVersion)
Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion)
Funders: University of Bristol
AXA Research Fund
Natural Environment Research Council
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Fire Detection and Safety Systems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords: forest fires, burned area, climate drivers of fire, land conversion, temperature, rainfall, dry period, regression trees, random forest, South America
MeSH terms: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Pollution, Fires, Humans, Regression Analysis, Trees, Wilderness, Climate Change

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Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

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