On the influence of second use, future battery technologies, and battery lifetime on the maximum recycled content of future electric vehicle batteries in Europe
Open accessAbstract
The European Union is promoting the uptake of low emission vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. However, this transition will increase the demand for five important battery raw materials; i.e. lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and graphite. Therefore, a substance flow analysis and forecasting model are proposed to investigate the flow of these materials through the different lifecycle stages of electric vehicle batteries. The model forecasts that by 2040, the vehicle stock will be from 72 to 78 million vehicles, while the second use stock will be from 3 to 11 million batteries. In addition, the annual recycling waste stream in 2040 will grow to roughly 3 million batteries with a capacity of 125 GWh. Results indicate that this waste stream could cover between 10% and 300% of future raw materials demand for electric vehicles. The width of this range is dominated by uncertainties on the rapidly evolving material composition of automotive batteries and the possible commercialization of cobalt-free battery technologies. The remaining uncertainty is attributed to the battery lifetime in vehicle use and potential second use of retired batteries.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
NMC811 cells are expected to be widely adopted in the near future.
“NMC811 cells are expected to be widely adopted in the near future (Abdelbaky et al., 2021; IEA, 2023).”
From Global warming potential of lithium-ion battery cell production: Determining influential primary and secondary raw material supply routes (2023) · cites this paper as Abdelbaky et al., 2021
NMC111 cells dominated new EV sales in Europe until 2015 and will have a considerable share in the emerging recycling waste stream.
“NMC111 cells, on the one hand, dominated new EV sales in Europe until 2015 and will have a considerable share in the emerging recycling waste stream.”
From Global warming potential of lithium-ion battery cell production: Determining influential primary and secondary raw material supply routes (2023) · cites this paper as Abdelbaky et al., 2021
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Li-ion battery materials: present and future
Nitta, N., Wu, F., Lee, J. T., & Yushin, G. N. (2014) · Materials Today · doi:10.1016/j.mattod.2014.10.040 · Cited by 7,421 · see citing works
Saltelli, A., Annoni, P., Azzini, I., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M., & Tarantola, S. (2010) · Computer Physics Communications · doi:10.1016/j.cpc.2009.09.018 · Cited by 3,623 · see citing works
A review on lithium-ion battery ageing mechanisms and estimations for automotive applications
Barré, A., Deguilhem, B., Grolleau, S., Gérard, M., Suard, F., & Riu, D. (2013) · Journal of Power Sources · doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2013.05.040 · Cited by 1,758 · see citing works
Olivetti, E. A., Ceder, G., Gaustad, G. G., & Fu, X. (2017) · Joule · doi:10.1016/j.joule.2017.08.019 · Cited by 1,572 · see citing works
SALib: An open-source Python library for Sensitivity Analysis
Herman, J. D., & Usher, W. (2017) · The Journal of Open Source Software · doi:10.21105/joss.00097 · Cited by 1,549 · see citing works
Current Li-Ion Battery Technologies in Electric Vehicles and Opportunities for Advancements
Yu, M., Hynan, P., von Jouanne, A., & Yokochi, A. (2019) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en12061074 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Mineral Commodity Summaries 1997
Survey, U. S. G. (1997) · doi:10.3133/mineral1997 · Cited by 808 · see citing works
A comprehensive review of the key technologies for pure electric vehicles
Li, Z., Khajepour, A., & Song, J. (2019) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.06.077 · Cited by 623 · see citing works
A Critical Review of Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Processes from a Circular Economy Perspective
Velázquez-Martínez, O., Valio, J., Santasalo-Aarnio, A., Reuter, M. A., & Serna-Guerrero, R. (2019) · Batteries · doi:10.3390/batteries5040068 · Cited by 604 · see citing works
Mineral Commodity Summaries 2019
Survey, U. S. G. (2019) · Mineral Commodity Summaries · doi:10.3133/70202434 · Cited by 489 · see citing works
Copper demand, supply, and associated energy use to 2050
Elshkaki, A., Graedel, T. E., Ciacci, L., & Reck, B. K. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.006 · Cited by 481 · see citing works
A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles
Richa, K., Babbitt, C. W., Gaustad, G. G., & Wang, X. (2014) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.11.008 · Cited by 474 · see citing works
The Size and Range Effect: Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electric Vehicles
Ellingsen, L. A.-W., Singh, B., & Strømman, A. H. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054010 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Toward a cell‐chemistry specific life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion battery recycling processes
Mohr, M., Peters, J. F., Baumann, M., & Weil, M. (2020) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13021 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Fast charging technique for high power lithium iron phosphate batteries: A cycle life analysis
Anseán, D., Gonzalez, M., Viera, J. C., García-Suárez, V. M., Blanco, C., & Valledor, M. (2013) · Journal of Power Sources · doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2013.03.044 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Bobba, S., Mathieux, F., Ardente, F., Blengini, G. A., Cusenza, M. A., Podias, A., & Pfrang, A. (2018) · Journal of Energy Storage · doi:10.1016/j.est.2018.07.008 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Ziemann, S., Müller, D. B., Schebek, L., & Weil, M. (2018) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.01.031 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
A review of high energy density lithium–air battery technology
Rahman, M. A., Wang, X., & Wen, C. (2013) · Journal of Applied Electrochemistry · doi:10.1007/s10800-013-0620-8 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
How much electrical energy storage do we need? A synthesis for the U.S., Europe, and Germany
Cebulla, F., Haas, J., Eichman, J., Nowak, W., & Mancarella, P. (2018) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.144 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Identifying and Overcoming Critical Barriers to Widespread Second Use of PEV Batteries
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), G., Neubauer, J., USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), V. T. O. (.-3., Smith, K., Wood, E., & Pesaran, A. (2015) · doi:10.2172/1171780 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Bobba, S., Mathieux, F., & Blengini, G. A. (2019) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.02.022 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Estimation of end of life mobile phones generation: The case study of the Czech Republic
Polák, M., & Drápalová, L. (2012) · Waste Management · doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2012.03.028 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Lifetime prediction and sizing of lead–acid batteries for microgeneration storage applications
Jenkins, D. P., Fletcher, J., & Kane, D. (2008) · IET Renewable Power Generation · doi:10.1049/iet-rpg:20080021 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Reused second life batteries for aggregated demand response services
Casals, L. C., Barbero, M., & Corchero, C. (2018) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.005 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Quantifying economic benefits of second life batteries of gridable vehicles in the smart grid
Debnath, U. K., Ahmad, I., & Habibi, D. (2014) · International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems · doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.05.077 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
A Structured Literature Review on Obsolete Electric Vehicles Management Practices
D’Adamo, I., & Rosa, P. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11236876 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Peeters, J. R., Bracqguene, E., Nelen, D., Ueberschaar, M., Acker, K. V., & Duflou, J. R. (2017) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.080 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationGeneration and management of waste electric vehicle batteries in China
Xu, C., Zhang, W., He, W., et al. (2017) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-017-9890-8 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
A Cost Analysis of Electric Vehicle Batteries Second Life Businesses
Casals, L. C., García, B. A., & Benítez, M. M. G. (2015) · Lecture notes in management and industrial engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-26459-2_10 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Plananska, J. (2020) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2020.101745 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 6
- Gattiglio, F., 2019. Panel Discussion I: The Batteries Directive Review. Lyon: 24th International Congress for Battery Recycling ICBR 2019.
- Mathai, A. M. & Haubold, H. J., 2018. Collection of random variables. In: Probability and Statistics A Course for Physicists and Engineers. Berlin, Boston: De Gruyter, pp. 249-258.
- Melin, H. E., 2019. State-of-the-art in reuse and recycling of lithium-ion batteries-A research review, s.l.: The Swedish Energy Agency.
- Nan, C. et al., 2011. Solvothermal synthesis of lithium iron phosphate nanoplates. Journal of Materials Chemistry, 21(27), pp. 9994-9996.
- Sobol, I. M., 1990. On sensitivity estimation for nonlinear mathematical models. Matem. Mod., 2(1), pp. 112-118.
- Yang, S., Zavalij, P. Y. & Whittingham, M. S., 2001. Hydrothermal synthesis of lithium iron phosphate cathodes. Electrochemistry Communications, 3(9), pp. 505-508.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Towards the lithium-ion battery production network: Thinking beyond mineral supply chains
Bridge, G., & Faigen, E. (2022) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102659 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
Effects of High Ambient Temperature on Electric Vehicle Efficiency and Range: Case Study of Kuwait
Hamwi, H., Rushby, T., Mahdy, M., & Bahaj, A. S. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15093178 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Huang, J., Dong, X., Chen, J., & Zeng, A. (2023) · Resources Policy · doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103504 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Abdelbaky, M., Schwich, L., Henriques, J., Friedrich, B., Peeters, J. R., & Dewulf, W. (2023) · Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain · doi:10.1016/j.clscn.2023.100130 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationA comparative assessment of resource-use criticality in advanced lithium-ion battery technologies
Abdelbaky, M., Peeters, J. R., den Eynde, S. V., Zaplana, I., & Dewulf, W. (2022) · Procedia CIRP · doi:10.1016/j.procir.2022.02.002 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Abdelbaky, M., Peeters, J. R., & Dewulf, W.
- Affiliations
- KU Leuven (BE)
- Corresponding author
- Abdelbaky, Mohammad
- Venue
- Waste Management
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-04
- Volume
- 125
- Pages
- 1-9
- ISSN
- 0956-053X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3135123285
- Cited by
- 147
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 8
- FWCI
- 9.83
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- lirias.kuleuven.be
- Licence
- Locations
- Waste Management (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Horizon 2020
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (814464)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental Impact and Sustainability
- Keywords
- electric vehicle batteries, battery recycling, recycled content, battery life, battery raw materials, lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite, material demand forecasting, vehicle stock, substance flow analysis, European Union, low-emission vehicles
- MeSH terms
- Electricity, Europe, Lithium, Electric Power Supplies, Recycling
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
