Development Consequences of Armed Conflict
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Armed conflict is a major driver of vulnerability.
“Armed conflict is a major driver of vulnerability: It is widely seen as the primary cause of development failure (18), it is a dominant cause of forced migration (19), and it frequently triggers hunger crises (20).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [18]
Armed conflict is the primary cause of development failure.
“It is widely seen as the primary cause of development failure (18)”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [18]
Conflict is robustly and negatively associated with economic development and growth, it increases inflation and price shocks, and it creates a need for costly reconstruction.
“Among other effects, conflict is robustly and negatively associated with economic development and growth, it increases inflation and price shocks, and it creates a need for costly reconstruction (18,95,123,124)”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [18]
Cites
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Self-citationIntroducing ACLED: An armed conflict location and event dataset
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Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., & Buhaug, H. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607542113 · Cited by 458 · see citing works
“Conflict is development in reverse (47, 48), and the adverse impact of intense violence on environmental vulnerability is probably many times greater than the effect of environmental shock on conflict risk.”
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Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting
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“Vicious circle primary cause of development failure (18), it is a dominant cause of forced migration (19), and it frequently triggers hunger crises (20).”
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Water in war: Understanding the impacts of armed conflict on water resources and their management
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“” Out of those eight, two statistical analyses (Djimeu, 2014; Gates et al., 2012) rely on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's definition of armed conflict as “a contested incompatibility which concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government…”
BackgroundInfluentialA call to action: the second Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing
Baird, S., Choonara, S., Azzopardi, P. S., Banati, P., Bessant, J., Biermann, O., Capon, A. G., Claeson, M., Collins, P. Y., Wet, N. D., et al. (2025) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(25)00503-3 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
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The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Vesco, P., Baliki, G., Brück, T., Döring, S., Eriksson, A., Fjelde, H., Guha‐Sapir, D., Hall, J., Knutsen, C. H., Leis, M., et al. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
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Rice or riots: On food production and conflict severity across India
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“Similarly, the links between this block and SDG 16 is consistent with the commonly acknowledged adverse impact of armed conflict on health and development outcomes [38,39].”
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Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis
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“Our results regarding the negative impacts of conflict on education in LICs align with Diwakar ’ s (2015) and Gates et al. ’ s (2012) findings, showing that an increase in conflict has devastating effects on cumulative education for both genders.”
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“acknowledged that conflict can act as a driver for positive change and development, violent conflict in which actors use force against other actors to pursue their goals, is widely seen as detrimental to human security (Collier et al. 2003; World Bank 2011; Gates et al. 2012).”
BackgroundEarly life shocks and entrepreneurship: Evidence from the Vietnam War
Churchill, S. A., Munyanyi, M. E., Smyth, R., & Trinh, T.-A. (2020) · Journal of Business Research · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.11.009 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“War also destroys transport networks, compromising the movement of relief supplies, medical staff, food, clean water and medicine, all of which adversely affect health and increase the probability of long-term disability (Gates et al., 2012; Ghobarah et al., 2003).”
BackgroundEvaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap
Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M., & Ræder, R. F. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316684917 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“The effect of war on GDP per capita has been estimated to be about 2% annually (Collier, 1999; Gates et al., 2012: 175–176) and up to 20% in aggregate (Cerra & Saxena, 2008; Mueller, 2012: 442).”
BackgroundSelf-citationYin, H., Butsic, V., Buchner, J., Kuemmerle, T., Prishchepov, A. V., Baumann, M., Bragina, E., Sayadyan, H. Y., & Radeloff, V. C. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.005 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“Armed conflicts often have tragic humanitarian consequences (Gates et al., 2012; Li and Wen, 2005) and can have far-reaching and long-lasting environmental effects (Dupuy et al.”
BackgroundThe Consequences of Contention: Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence
Davenport, C., Nygård, H. M., Fjelde, H., & Armstrong, D. A., II (2019) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064057 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
“Collier (1999) and Gates et al. (2012) estimate that civil wars on average reduce GDP growth by more than 2% for each year of the war duration.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationThe impact of conflict on food security: evidence from household data in Ethiopia and Malawi
Muriuki, J., Hudson, D., & Fuad, S. (2023) · Agriculture & Food Security · doi:10.1186/s40066-023-00447-z · Cited by 63 · see citing works
“Violence has also been studied in the context of its impact on aggregate-level food security both nationally [19, 60] and cross-nation-ally (see [33]).”
BackgroundThe economic costs of military conflict
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“The centrality of conflict to development is emphasized by Collier (2007), World Bank (2011) and Gates et al. (2012).”
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Civil War and Female Empowerment
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“Armed conflict is sometimes described as development in reverse (Collier et al. 2003; Gates et al. 2012).”
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“For instance, Gibson (2012) found that cultivated areas in northern Iraq barely changed throughout Operation Iraqi Freedom.”
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“Therefore it is not surprising that conflict-affected areas have some of the largest MDG deficits [7,8].”
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“…other episodes of abrupt socio-political change often entail massive economic losses, to both unstable countries and their immediate neighbors, which are rarely offset by post-instability growth (Cerra and Saxena 2008; Collier and Hoeffler 2004; Gates et al. 2012; Ghobarah, Huth and Russett 2004).”
BackgroundConflict Exposure and Competitiveness: Experimental Evidence from the Football Field in Sierra Leone
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“…conflicts documents the persistent effect of violence on education ðLai and Thyne 2007; Chamarbagwala and Morán 2011Þ, health and disability ðGhobarah, Hurt, and Russett 2003; Iqbal 2006; Iqbal and Zorn 2010Þ, food security and poverty ðGates et al. 2012Þ, and the working of societies as a whole.”
BackgroundOn Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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“Common causes of growth disruptions include commodity price shocks (Deaton 1999), distortionary fi scal policies (Easterly 1993), political instability (Alesina et al. 1996), and armed con fl ict (Gates et al. 2012).”
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The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
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“For instance, Gates et al. (2012) showed that armed conflicts led to development gaps and compromised the progress in meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by undermining the efforts to reduce poverty, hunger and infant mortality, improve life expectancy as well as access…”
BackgroundHealth in conflict and post-conflict settings: reproductive, maternal and child health in Colombia
Jaraba, S. M. R., Toro, N. Q., Sierra, M. O., Sánchez, L. R., Jímenez, M. A. G., Salazar-Barrientos, M., Bedoya, E. B., Álvarez, G. A. V., Langer, A., Gausman, J., et al. (2020) · Conflict and Health · doi:10.1186/s13031-020-00273-1 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
“mortality by up to 10%, and cause other public health problems due to lack of access to drinking water, food and health services [7].”
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“…know that conflict has persistent effects via various channels, including the impacts on health and disability (e.g. Ghobarah, Huth & Russett, 2003; Iqbal, 2006; Iqbal & Zorn, 2010), education (Lai & Thyne, 2007; Chamarbagwala & Morán, 2011), and food security or poverty (e.g. Gates et al., 2012).”
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Growing-up Unfortunate: War and Human Capital in Ethiopia
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Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria basin
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Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation
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Economic Development in Peacekeeping Host Countries
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A new research approach for Peace Innovation
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“It is intricately tied to poverty (Fearon and Laitin 2003), is both a consequence and cause of underdevelopment (Collier et al. 2003), and increases malnourishment, lowers life expectancy, and increases infant mortality (Gates et al. 2012; Braithwaite, Dasandi, and Hudson 2016).”
Background‘Development in reverse’? A longitudinal analysis of armed conflict, fragility and school enrolment†
Shields, R., & Paulson, J. (2015) · doi:10.1080/03050068.2014.953314 · Cited by 30
“A study undertaken by researchers at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (Gates et al. 2010, 2012) analyses the relationship between conflict and progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in developing countries.”
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Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan
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“One of the most recent contributions on the topic, Gates et al. (2012), find that war has also negative effects on progresses in meeting the UN Millennium Development Goals, such as the reduction of poverty, hunger, infant mortality and on access to water and primary education.”
BackgroundThe legacy of war: The effect of militias on postwar repression
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“Even without a return to full-blown conflict, postwar societies face adverse conditions.1 In the aftermath of civil war, countries struggle with economic recovery (e.g. Collier et al., 2008; Serneels and Verpoorten, 2013) and development (Gates et al., 2012; Iqbal, 2006).”
BackgroundLuiz, J. M., Ganson, B., & Wennmann, A. (2019) · Journal of International Business Policy · doi:10.1057/s42214-019-00030-z · Cited by 31 · see citing works
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“1 Moreover, pressing questions remain as to how to achieve sustainable development in conflict and post-conflict settings (Gates et al., 2012; Nygård, 2017).”
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“While overall child mortality rates have declined in countries undergoing armed conflict due to shrinking costs of war, low cost health interventions during peacetime, humanitarian interventions, immunization and localized nature of armed conflict [18], child mortality is consistently shown to be significantly higher…”
BackgroundPatel, P., Cummings, R., & Roberts, B. (2015) · Conflict and Health · doi:10.1186/s13031-015-0031-z · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“Evidence suggests that conflict-affected countries are significantly worse off than stable resource-poor countries in terms of health outcomes and social determinants of health [1,2]; and are the furthest away from reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) [3].”
BackgroundCan international interventions secure the peace?
Hoeffler, A. (2014) · International Area Studies Review · doi:10.1177/2233865914525380 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon
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“Literature review According to Gates et al. (2012), a medium-sized conflict (2500 battle deaths) on average increases undernourishment by 3.3% and child mortality by 10%, while depriving an additional 1.8% of the population from access to potable water.”
BackgroundInfluentialThe economic costs of civil war
Costalli, S., Moretti, L., & Pischedda, C. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316675200 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
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The Mental Health of Refugees and Forcibly Displaced People: A Narrative Review
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“Research of armed conflict and agricultural labor demands shows that separately these factors may adversely impact the care environment with a negative impact on food and nutrition outcomes (Betancourt & Khan, 2008; Gates et al., 2012; Mansour & Rees, 2012; Randell et al., 2020, 2021).”
BackgroundNatural resources, child mortality and governance quality in African countries
Tadadjeu, S., Njangang, H., Asongu, S., & Kamguia, B. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3840804 · Cited by 24
“, 2019), conflicts (Gates et al., 2012), globalization (Welander et al.”
BackgroundThe effect of prenatal stress on cooperation: Evidence from violent conflict in Uganda
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Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty
Moyer, J. D. (2023) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Conflict and health: Building on the role of infrastructure
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War termination and women's political rights.
Joshi, M., & Olsson, L. (2021) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2020.102523 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Food Insecurity and Coping Strategies in War-Affected Urban Settings of Tigray, Ethiopia
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Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: an underappreciated field of inquiry?
de Bruin, S. D., Hoch, J., von Uexkull, N., Buhaug, H., Demmers, J., Visser, H., & Wanders, N. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.31223/x5hs5w · Cited by 22
“On the other hand because social trade-offs of climate change are sensitive to armed conflict, such as poverty, health issues and hunger (Gates et al., 2012).”
BackgroundThirty Years of Human Rights Study in the Web of Science Database (1990–2020)
Severo, P. P., Furstenau, L. B., Sott, M. K., Cossul, D., Bender, M. S., & Bragazzi, N. L. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18042131 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“In addition to the deaths caused by wars, “military” conflict can induce refugee flows, migration, capital flight, and also the destruction of a societies’ infrastructure [76].”
BackgroundImpact of Armed Conflicts on Education and Educational Agents: A Multivocal Review
Cervantes-Duarte, L., & Fernández-Cano, A. (2016) · Revista Electrónica Educare · doi:10.15359/ree.20-3.12 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Budabin, A. C. (2014) · doi:10.1080/01436597.2014.868996 · Cited by 22
Badiuzzaman, M., Murshed, S., & Rieger, M. (2020) · Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2018.1554211 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Østby, G., Urdal, H., & Rudolfsen, I. (2016) · Education Research International · doi:10.1155/2016/4587194 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Towards the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger: What Role Do Institutions Play?
Galabada, J. K. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14084598 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Decomposition of Ethiopian life expectancy by age and cause of mortality; 1990-2015
Balew, G., Cho, Y., & Jung, M. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0204395 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance – conflict nexus
Nygård, H. M. (2017) · International Area Studies Review · doi:10.1177/2233865916683609 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“Gates et al. (2012) analysed the effect of armed conflict on the MDGs and found a detrimental effect of conflict across several of them.”
BackgroundSelf-citationAssessing the impact of armed conflict on the progress of achieving 17 sustainable development goals
Wang, D., Hao, M., Li, N., & Jiang, D. (2024) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2024.111331 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Additionally, infrastructure is usually concentrated in cities and major industrial areas, which are also hotspots for armed conflict, 18,33 making them highly susceptible to severe damage from bombs, shelling, and other acts of war.”
War and food insecurity in Ukraine
Rudolfsen, I., Bartusevičius, H., van Leeuwen, F. V., & Østby, G. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106647 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The heterogeneous effects of conflict on education: A spatial analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa
Unfried, K., & Kis-Katos, K. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.1177/00223433221099557 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“From a macroeconomic perspective, Lai & Thyne (2007) and Gates et al. (2012) provide first cross-country evidence, analyzing the short-term effects of conflict on education.”
BackgroundEstimating the Effects of Syrian Civil War (preprint)
Kešeljevič, A., & Spruk, R. (2022) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2209.03046 · Cited by 19
“The existing literature on the economic effects of war shows that regardless of which approach and model we use, the impact of civil war on output is always disastrous and implies large economic losses (Mueller, 2013; Collier, 1999; Gates et al., 2012; Kang and Meernik, 2005).”
Public Health and Armed Conflict: Immunization in Times of Systemic Disruptions
Østby, G., Shemyakina, O. N., Tollefsen, A., Urdal, H., & Verpoorten, M. (2021) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.12450 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Asi, Y. M. (2020) · Journal of Peacebuilding & Development · doi:10.1177/1542316620918555 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“With increased conflict comes decreased development across indicators (Gates et al., 2012).”
BackgroundWartime Violence and Post-War Women's Representation
Hadzic, D., & Tavits, M. (2020) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123419000619 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“This variable ranges from 0.11 to 6.77 and has a mean of 1.82.12 Due to severe right-skewness in both measures, we log Casualty and Confirmed Dead in the analyses that follow (Gates et al. 2012; Lancina 2006).”
MethodInfluentialFactors of regional poverty reduction in Colombia: Do institutional conditions matter?
Nieto-Alemán, P. A., Álvarez‐Coque, J. M. G., Roig‐Tierno, N., & Más‐Verdú, F. (2019) · Social Policy and Administration · doi:10.1111/spol.12474 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Echeverria, N., Hemmerechts, K., & Kavadias, D. (2019) · International Journal of Comparative Sociology · doi:10.1177/0020715219874379 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
The hunger games: Food prices, ethnic cleavages and nonviolent unrest in Africa
Abbs, L. (2019) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343319866487 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“I exclude country-years in which civil war is ongoing, because of its clear endogenous relationship with food prices (Gates et al., 2012).”
BackgroundPetrova, K., & Rosvold, E. L. (2024) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106372 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
- Authors
- Gates, S., Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M., & Strand, H.
- Affiliations
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Peace Research Institute Oslo (NO)
- Venue
- World Development
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 40
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1713-1722
- ISSN
- 0305-750X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1963989326
- Cited by
- 377
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 42 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 39.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- World Development (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Health and Conflict Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Keywords
- armed conflict, Millennium Development Goals, economic growth, poverty reduction, hunger, malnutrition, primary education, child mortality, infant mortality, life expectancy, drinking water access
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