Untreated short-term course of major depression: a meta-analysis of outcomes from studies using wait-list control groups

Posternak, Michael A.; Miller, Ivan

doi:10.1016/s0165-0327(00)00304-9

Cited by 216Treatment of Major DepressionPsychotherapy Techniques and ApplicationsAnxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes

Untreated short-term course of major depression: a meta-analysis of outcomes from studies using wait-list control groups

Posternak, Michael A., Miller, Ivan·2001·Journal of Affective Disorders

DOI 10.1016/s0165-0327(00)00304-9

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Introduction While the short-term response rates to antidepressant medication and placebo are well established, very little is known about the short-term course of untreated depression. Knowledge of the course of untreated depression can serve as a benchmark for assessing the true benefits of active treatment.Method A meta-analysis was performed analyzing the outcomes of all psychotherapy studies that randomized adult outpatients with major depressive disorder to a wait-list control group.Results Nineteen studies involving 221 subjects were reviewed. The mean decrease in Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression scores over 2-20 weeks was 11.9%, while the mean decrease in Beck Depression Inventory scores was 15.7%. Using a subsample of studies that reported individual outcomes, we estimated that 15 of 76 subjects (19.7%) improved to a degree comparable to what would be considered a positive response in antidepressant trials.Conclusions In the short-term, depressive symptomatology can be expected to decrease by about 10-15% on average without treatment. As many as 20% of subjects who participate in a short-term antidepressant trial may experience a spontaneous remission.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/s0165-0327(00)00304-9

Cites

76 of 76 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

A meta-analysis showed that untreated depressive symptoms could decrease by 10%-15%, on average.
“A meta-analysis showed that untreated depressive symptoms could decrease by 10%–15%, on average.73”
From Effects of bright light therapy for depression during pregnancy: a randomised, double-blind controlled trial (2020) · cites this paper as [73]
Previous research has revealed spontaneous psychological symptom remission in wait-list participants in controlled trials.
“previous research has revealed spontaneous psychological symptom remission in wait-list participants in controlled trials (e.g., Posternak and Miller 2001).”
From Feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an internet-based CBT intervention for loneliness in older adults: A pilot RCT (2024) · cites this paper as Posternak and Miller 2001
For STPP of depression, remission rates between 45% and 70% at post-therapy assessment were published, while remission rates in primary-care settings (comparable to TAU) ranged between 20% and about 50% (6 months).
“For STPP of depression remission rates between 45% and 70% at post-therapy assessment were published [26], while remission rates in primary-care settings (comparable to TAU) ranged between 20% and about 50% (6 months) [27-29].”
From Efficacy of psychodynamic short-term psychotherapy for depressed breast cancer patients: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial (2012) · cites this paper as [28]
Because randomized controlled trial methodology was not employed, it is difficult to know whether the changes were due to depressive symptoms resolving over time.
“Because such methodology was not employed, it is difficult to know whether the changes were due to depressive symptoms resolving over time [21].”
From Web-based Cognitive Behavior Therapy: Analysis of Site Usage and Changes in Depression and Anxiety Scores (2002) · cites this paper as [21]

Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavior Change
Garfield, S. L., Bergin, A. E., & Dryden, W. (1987) · Journal of Cognitive Psychotherapy · doi:10.1891/0889-8391.1.4.264a · Cited by 3,998 · see citing works
"A Controlled Study"
Davis, H. S. (1966) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1966.03100200106038 · Cited by 1,719 · see citing works
Manic-Depressive Insanity and Paranoia.
(1921) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1921.02630330070026 · Cited by 1,612 · see citing works
Manic Depressive Insanity and Paranoia
Kraepelin, E. (1921) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/00005053-192104000-00057 · Cited by 1,327 · see citing works
Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavior Change
Kepecs, J. G. (1980) · American Journal of Psychotherapy · doi:10.1176/appi.psychotherapy.1980.34.1.131 · Cited by 967 · see citing works
A meta-analysis of the efficacy of cognitive therapy for depression.
Dobson, K. S. (1989) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.57.3.414 · Cited by 823 · see citing works
A meta-analysis of the efficacy of cognitive therapy for depression.
Dobson, K. S. (1989) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.57.3.414 · Cited by 821 · see citing works
Psychotherapy for the treatment of depression: a comprehensive review of controlled outcome research.
Robinson, L. A., Berman, J., & Neimeyer, R. (1990) · Psychological bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.1.30 · Cited by 691 · see citing works
Cognitive-behavioral treatment for depressed adolescents
Lewinsohn, P. M., Clarke, G. N., Hops, H., & Andrews, J. (1990) · Behavior Therapy · doi:10.1016/s0005-7894(05)80353-3 · Cited by 612 · see citing works
Placebo Theory, Research , and Mechanisms
WHITE, L. E., Tursky, B., & SCHWARTZ, G. E. R. (1985) · Guilford Press eBooks · Cited by 485 · see citing works
Comparative effectiveness of psychotherapies for depressed elders.
Thompson, L. W., Gallagher-Thompson, D. E., & Breckenridge, J. S. (1987) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.55.3.385 · Cited by 465 · see citing works
A comparison of cognitive-behavioral therapy and relaxation training for the treatment of depression in adolescents.
Reynolds, W. M., & Coats, K. I. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.54.5.653 · Cited by 425 · see citing works
Comparative efficacy of religious and nonreligious cognitive-behavioral therapy for the treatment of clinical depression in religious individuals.
Propst, L. R., Ostrom, R., Watkins, P., & Dean, T. (1992) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.60.1.94 · Cited by 423 · see citing works
Nonspecific improvement effects in depression using interpersonal skills training, pleasant activity schedules, or cognitive training.
Zeiss, A. M., Lewinsohn, P. M., & oz, R. F. M. (1979) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.47.3.427 · Cited by 386 · see citing works
Comparative effectiveness of psychotherapies for depressed elders.
Thompson, L. W., Gallagher-Thompson, D. E., & Breckenridge, J. S. (1987) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.55.3.385 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
A comparison of the relative efficacy of self-control therapy and a behavioral problem-solving therapy for depression in children
Stark, K. D., Reynolds, W. M., & Kaslow, N. J. (1987) · Research on Child and Adolescent Psychopathology · doi:10.1007/bf00916468 · Cited by 333 · see citing works
Social problem-solving therapy for unipolar depression: an initial dismantling investigation.
Nezu, A., & Perri, M. G. (1989) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.57.3.408 · Cited by 325 · see citing works
Computer-administered cognitive-behavioral therapy for depression
(1990) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/ajp.147.1.51 · Cited by 304 · see citing works
A comparison of cognitive-behavioral therapy and relaxation training for the treatment of depression in adolescents.
Reynolds, W. M., & Coats, K. I. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.54.5.653 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Nonspecific improvement effects in depression using interpersonal skills training, pleasant activity schedules, or cognitive training.
Zeiss, A. M., Lewinsohn, P. M., & Muñoz, R. F. (1979) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.47.3.427 · Cited by 288 · see citing works
Comparative efficacy of religious and nonreligious cognitive-behavioral therapy for the treatment of clinical depression in religious individuals.
Propst, L. R., Ostrom, R., Watkins, P. C., et al. (1992) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.60.1.94 · Cited by 283 · see citing works
Efficacy of a social problem-solving therapy approach for unipolar depression.
Nezu, A. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.54.2.196 · Cited by 281 · see citing works
A self-control behavior therapy program for depression.
Fuchs, C. Z., & Rehm, L. P. (1977) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.45.2.206 · Cited by 265 · see citing works
Comparison of cognitive therapy and behavior therapy in the treatment of depression.
Shaw, B. F. (1977) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.45.4.543 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
Comparative efficacy of cognitive and behavioral bibliotherapy for mildly and moderately depressed older adults.
Scogin, F., Jamison, C. S., & Gochneaur, K. (1989) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.57.3.403 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Marital therapy: a viable treatment for depression and marital discord
O’Leary, K. D., & Beach, S. R. (1990) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/ajp.147.2.183 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
Efficacy of a social problem-solving therapy approach for unipolar depression.
Nezu, A. M. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.54.2.196 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Psychologically Mediated Effects of Diagnostic Tests
Sox, H. C., MARGULIES, I., & SOX, C. H. (1981) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-95-6-680 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
A psychoeducational approach to the treatment of depression: Comparison of group, individual, and minimal contact procedures.
Brown, R. A., & Lewinsohn, P. M. (1984) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.52.5.774 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
A self-control behavior therapy program for depression.
Fuchs, C. Z., & Rehm, L. P. (1977) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.45.2.206 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Comparison of cognitive therapy and behavior therapy in the treatment of depression.
Shaw, B. F. (1977) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.45.4.543 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Comparative efficacy of cognitive and behavioral bibliotherapy for mildly and moderately depressed older adults.
Scogin, F. R., Jamison, C. S., & Gochneaur, K. (1989) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.57.3.403 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Comparative effects of short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy: A meta-analysis.
Svartberg, M., & Stiles, T. C. (1991) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.59.5.704 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Clinical significance of psychotherapy for unipolar depression: a meta-analytic approach to social comparison.
Nietzel, M. T., Russell, R. L., Hemmings, K. A., & Gretter, M. L. (1987) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.55.2.156 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Clinical significance of psychotherapy for unipolar depression: A meta-analytic approach to social comparison.
Nietzel, M. T., Russell, R. L., Hemmings, K. A., & Gretter, M. L. (1987) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.55.2.156 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Experimental analysis of a cognitive-behavioral therapy for depression
Taylor, F. G., & Marshall, W. L. (1977) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/bf01173505 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
Effects of cognitive and behavioral group treatment on the depressive symptomatology of Puerto Rican women.
Comas‐Díaz, L. (1981) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.49.5.627 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Placebo controls in psychotherapy research: A sine qua non or a placebo for research problems?
Parloff, M. B. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037//0022-006x.54.1.79 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Effects of cognitive and behavioral group treatment on the depressive symptomatology of Puerto Rican women.
Comas‐Díaz, L. (1981) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.49.5.627 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
A meta-analysis of psychotherapy and drug therapy in the treatment of unipolar depression with adults.
Steinbrueck, S. M., Maxwell, S. E., & Howard, G. S. (1983) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.51.6.856 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
The Time Course of Nonchronic Major Depressive Disorder
Coryell, W. H. (1994) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1994.03950050065007 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Comparative efficacy of behavioral and cognitive treatments of depression
Wilson, P. H., Goldin, J. C., & Charbonneau-Powis, M. (1983) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/bf01190064 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
A Comparison of Secular and Religious Versions of Cognitive Therapy with Depressed Christian College Students
Pecheur, D. R., & Edwards, K. J. (1984) · Journal of Psychology and Theology · doi:10.1177/009164718401200106 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Psychodynamic Changes in Untreated Neurotic Patients
MALAN, D. H. (1975) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1975.01760190112013 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
An Evaluation of Major Components in a Self-Control Therapy Program for Depression
Rehm, L. P., Kornblith, S. J., O’Hara, M. W., Lamparski, D. M., Romano, J. M., & Volkin, J. I. (1981) · Behavior Modification · doi:10.1177/014544558154002 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Relative contribution of specific and nonspecific treatment effects: Meta-analysis of placebo-controlled behavior therapy research.
Bowers, T. G., & Clum, G. A. (1988) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.103.3.315 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Depression, activity, and evaluation of reinforcement.
Hammen, C. L., & Glass, D. R. (1975) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037//0021-843x.84.6.718 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Placebo controls in psychotherapy research: A sine qua non or a placebo for research problems?
Parloff, M. B. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.54.1.79 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
An evaluation of the effectiveness of individual and group cognitive therapy in the treatment of depressed patients in an inner city health centre.
Ross, M., & Scott, M. (1985) · PubMed · Cited by 78 · see citing works
The treatment of depression occurring in the context of marital discord
Beach, S. R. H., & O’Leary, K. D. (1986) · Behavior Therapy · doi:10.1016/s0005-7894(86)80112-5 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Group Cognitive Therapy for Depression Produces Clinically Significant Reliable Change in Community-based Settings
Scott, M., & Stradling, S. (1990) · Behavioural Psychotherapy · doi:10.1017/s014134730001795x · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Amount of therapist contact and outcome in a multidimensional depression treatment program
Schmidt, M. M., & Miller, W. R. (1983) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.1983.tb00349.x · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Effectiveness of two psychological treatments for inpatients with severe and chronic depressions
de Jong, R., Treiber, R., & Henrich, G. (1986) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/bf01173752 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Stimulating therapeutic change with interpretations: A comparison of positive and negative connotation.
Beck, J. T., & Strong, S. R. (1982) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.29.6.551 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Spontaneous remission in adult neurotic disorders: A revision and summary.
Lambert, M. J. (1976) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.83.1.107 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Effects of reframing and self-control directives on loneliness, depression, and controllability.
Conoley, C. W., & Garber, R. A. (1985) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.32.1.139 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
[The placebo effect].
Pérez Alvarez, M. (1987) · PubMed · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Depression, activity, and evaluation of reinforcement.
Hammen, C. L., & Glass, D. R. (1975) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/0021-843x.84.6.718 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
The efficacy of group and individual cognitive therapy for mild depression
Wierzbicki, M. J., & Bartlett, T. S. (1987) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/bf01186284 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Relative benefits of assertion or cognitive self-control treatment for depression as a function of proficiency in each domain.
Rude, S. S. (1986) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.54.3.390 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
A comparison of paradoxical and nonparadoxical interpretations and directives.
Feldman, D. A., Strong, S. R., & Danser, D. B. (1982) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.29.6.572 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Pilot study of a treatment for psychological depression.
SHIPLEY, C., & Fazio, A. F. (1973) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/h0035168 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Cognitive-Behavior Therapy for Chronically Depressed Patients A Controlled Pilot Study
Harpin, R. E., Liberman, R. P., MARKS, I., Stern, R., & Bohannon, W. E. (1982) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/00005053-198205000-00007 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Comparison of effectiveness of group interventions for depression in women
Maynard, C. K. (1993) · Archives of Psychiatric Nursing · doi:10.1016/0883-9417(93)90005-h · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Strange bedfellows: Reward, punishment, and impersonal distraction strategies in treating dysphoria
Catanese, R. A., Rosenthal, T. L., & Kelley, J. E. (1979) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/bf01185970 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Group treatment with divorced women using cognitive-behavioral and supportive-insight methods.
Graff, R. W., Whitehead, G. I., & LeCompte, M. (1986) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.33.3.276 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Alternative advice and counsel in psychotherapy.
Cross, D. G., Sheehan, P. W., & Khan, J. A. (1980) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.48.5.615 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
The Relief of Distress following Attendance at a Clinic
Kellner, R., & SHEFFIELD, B. F. (1971) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.118.543.195 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
"Improvement" in Untreated Psychiatric Patients
Endicott, N. A. (1963) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1963.01720180047007 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
The efficacy of psychotherapy in non‐bipolar depression: a review
Jørgensen, M. B., Dam, H., & Bolwig, T. G. (1998) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0447.1998.tb10035.x · Cited by 32 · see citing works
An evaluation of a brief group therapy for depression.
Barrera, M. (1979) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.47.2.413 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Control groups for psychosocial intervention outcome studies
Strayhorn, J. M. (1987) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/ajp.144.3.275 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Effects of assertion training on depression
Hayman, P. M., & Cope, C. S. (1980) · Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1002/jclp.6120360226 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Psychodynamic Changes in Untreated Neurotic Patients
Schmideberg, M. (1968) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.114.512.924-a · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Cognitive versus behavioral–interpersonal approaches to the group treatment of depressed college students.
Hodgson, J. W. (1981) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-0167.28.3.243 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Using a battery of tests to predict suicide in a long-term hospital: A quantitative analysis
Smith, K. (1981) · Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1002/1097-4679(198107)37:3 · Cited by 9 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Sorted by citations

Comorbidity: a network perspective
Cramer, A. O. J., Waldorp, L. J., van der Maas, H. L. J., & Borsboom, D. (2010) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x09991567 · Cited by 1,575 · see citing works
“…is a well-established fact that depressive symptoms come (i.e., the system moves towards a “depressed” attractor state), and go (i.e., the system moves towards a “not depressed” attractor state), either through therapeutic intervention or spontaneous remission (e.g., see Posternak & Miller 2001).”
Background
Comparative validity of three screening questionnaires for DSM-IV depressive disorders and physicians? diagnoses
LOWE, B. (2004) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/s0165-0327(02)00237-9 · Cited by 1,060 · see citing works
“…associated with high levels of personal suffering, increased disability days, and elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality and suicide (Wells et al., 1989; Broadhead et al., 1990; Ormel et al., 1994; Simon et al., 1995; Frasure-Smith et al., 2000; Penninx et al., 2001; Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Background
Evidence-based guidelines for treating depressive disorders with antidepressants: A revision of the 2000 British Association for Psychopharmacology guidelines
Anderson, I. M., Ferrier, I. N., Baldwin, R., Cowen, P. J., Howard, L. M., Lewis, G., Matthews, K., McAllister-Williams, H., Peveler, R. C., Scott, J. L., et al. (2008) · Journal of Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1177/0269881107088441 · Cited by 901 · see citing works
“A meta-analysis of waiting list controls in 19 studies of major depression found rating scale score decreases of 12–16% over 2–20 weeks and up to 20% of patients showed 50% or greater improvement (Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Evidence-based guidelines for treating depressive disorders with antidepressants: A revision of the 2008 British Association for Psychopharmacology guidelines
Cleare, A., Pariante, C., Young, A., Anderson, I., Christmas, D., Cowen, P., Dickens, C., Ferrier, I., Geddes, J., Gilbody, S., et al. (2015) · Journal of Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1177/0269881115581093 · Cited by 759 · see citing works
“A meta-analysis of waiting list controls in 19 studies of major depression found rating scale score decreases of 12–16% over 2–20 weeks and up to 20% of patients showed 50% or greater improvement (Posternak and Miller, 2001), which compares with 30–32% response rate on placebo (Melander et al.”
Result
Improving access to psychological therapy: initial evaluation of two UK demonstration sites
Clark, D. M., Layard, R., Smithies, R., Richards, D. A., Suckling, R., & Wright, B. (2009) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2009.07.010 · Cited by 599 · see citing works
“20 comparisons, Posternak and Miller’s (2001) meta-analysis of wait-list control groups reports an average recovery rate from depression of approximately 20%, and a percentage change on the Beck Depression Inventory of approximately 16%.”
Background
Estimating remission from untreated major depression: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Whiteford, H. A., Harris, M. G., McKeon, G., Baxter, A., Pennell, C., Barendregt, J. J., & Wang, J. (2013) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291712001717 · Cited by 375 · see citing works
“Posternak & Miller (2001) reviewed psychotherapeutic intervention studies that randomized depressed individuals to wait-list control groups.”
Background
Web-based Cognitive Behavior Therapy: Analysis of Site Usage and Changes in Depression and Anxiety Scores
Christensen, H., Griffiths, K. M., & Korten, A. (2002) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/jmir.4.1.e3 · Cited by 292 · see citing works
“Because such methodology was not employed, it is difficult to know whether the changes were due to depressive symptoms resolving over time [21].”
Method
Delivering the Thinking Healthy Programme for Perinatal Depression Through Volunteer Peers: A Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial in Pakistan
Sikander, S., Ahmad, I., Atif, N., Zaidi, A., Vanobberghen, F. M., Weiss, H. A., Nisar, A., Tabana, H., Ain, Q. U., Bibi, A., et al. (2018) · The Lancet Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s2215-0366(18)30467-x · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) in the United Kingdom: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of 10‐years of practice‐based evidence
Wakefield, S., Kellett, S., Simmonds‐Buckley, M., Stockton, D., Bradbury, A., & Delgadillo, J. (2021) · British Journal of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjc.12259 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
The effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions for people with learning disabilities: a critical overview.
Willner, P. (2005) · Journal of Intellectual Disability Research · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2788.2005.00633.x · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Animal models of depression in drug discovery: A historical perspective
McArthur, R. A., & Borsini, F. (2006) · Pharmacology Biochemistry and Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.pbb.2006.06.005 · Cited by 209 · see citing works
Collateral outcomes in e-mental health: a systematic review of the evidence for added benefits of computerized cognitive behavior therapy interventions for mental health.
Musiat, P., & Tarrier, N. (2014) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291714000245 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
“However, it should be noted that, in the context of a research trial, a signi ﬁ cant proportion of individuals on the waitlist improve without any intervention (e.g. Posternak & Miller, 2001).”
Background
Clinical effectiveness of online computerised cognitive–behavioural therapy without support for depression in primary care: randomised trial
de Graaf, L. E., Gerhards, S. A. H., Arntz, A., Riper, H., Metsemakers, J. F. M., Evers, S. M. A. A., Severens, J. L., Widdershoven, G., & Huibers, M. J. H. (2009) · British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.108.054429 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
“47”
Standardized web-based cognitive behavioural therapy of mild to moderate depression: A randomized controlled trial with a long-term follow-up
Ruwaard, J., Schrieken, B., Schrijver, M., Broeksteeg, J., Dekker, J., Vermeulen, H., & Lange, A. (2009) · Cognitive Behaviour Therapy · doi:10.1080/16506070802408086 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
“Both rates of spontaneous recovery appear extreme based on what is known about the natural course of untreated depression (Posternak & Miller, 2001).”
Background
What Predicts Positive Life Events that Influence the Course of Depression? A Longitudinal Examination of Gratitude and Meaning in Life
Disabato, D. J., Kashdan, T. B., Short, J. L., & Jarden, A. (2016) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/s10608-016-9785-x · Cited by 151 · see citing works
“Approximately 20 % of individuals with depression spontaneously remit, or experience significant decreases in symptoms, without any formal treatment (Posternak and Miller 2001).”
Background
Challenges to addressing student mental health in embedded counselling services: a survey of UK higher and further education institutions
Broglia, E., Millings, A., & Barkham, M. (2018) · British Journal of Guidance and Counselling · doi:10.1080/03069885.2017.1370695 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Effectiveness of and dropout from outpatient cognitive behavioral therapy for adult unipolar depression: A meta-analysis of nonrandomized effectiveness studies.
Hans, E., & Hiller, W. (2013) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0031080 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
“Over a waiting list period of 4 to 15 and 5 to 12 weeks, respectively, a weighted mean reduction in BDI scores of 15.7% (Posternak & Miller, 2001) and a mean within-group effect size of approximately 0.5 were found (Rutherford, Mori, Sneed, Pimontel, & Roose, 2012).”
BackgroundInfluential
Metacognitive therapy in treatment-resistant depression: A platform trial
Wells, A., Fisher, P., Myers, S., Wheatley, J., Patel, T., & Brewin, C. R. (2012) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2012.02.004 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
“Posternak and Miller (2001) demonstrated a mean decrease of 10e15% in 0938 from the UK Medical Academic Division of Clinical 9WL, UK. uk, adrian.wells@man.ac.uk All rights reserved. symptoms over a 4e8 week period in a meta-analysis of wait-list control groups and concluded that roughly 20% of…”
Background
For better or worse: An individual patient data meta-analysis of deterioration among participants receiving Internet-based cognitive behavior therapy.
Rozental, A., Magnusson, K., Boettcher, J., Andersson, G., & Carlbring, P. (2017) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000158 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
“Similarly, a meta-analysis by Posternak and Miller (2001) of patients with major depression revealed a mean decrease in symptoms of 10– 15% during a time span of 2–20 weeks, arguing that up to one fifth of all waitlist patients might be achieving spontaneous remission without receiving any…”
Background
Preliminary evidence on the effectiveness of psychological treatments delivered at a university counseling center.
Minami, T., Davies, D. R., Tierney, S. C., Bettmann, J. E., McAward, S. M., Averill, L. A., Huebner, L. A., Weitzman, L. M., Benbrook, A. R., Serlin, R. C., et al. (2009) · Journal of Counseling Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0015398 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Is psychotherapy effective? A re-analysis of treatments for depression
Münder, T., Flückiger, C., Leichsenring, F., Abbass, A. A., Hilsenroth, M. J., Luyten, P., Rabung, S., Steinert, C., & Wampold, B. E. (2018) · Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences · doi:10.1017/s2045796018000355 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Transcranial Laser Stimulation as Neuroenhancement for Attention Bias Modification in Adults with Elevated Depression Symptoms
Disner, S. G., Beevers, C. G., & Gonzalez-Lima, F. (2016) · Brain stimulation · doi:10.1016/j.brs.2016.05.009 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
“There is significant heterogeneity in the naturalistic course of depression symptoms [59] and limiting the followup to only two weeks may not be capturing the full extent of symptom change.”
Which Factors Predict Placebo Response in Anxiety Disorders and Major Depression?
Stein, D. J., Baldwin, D. S., Dolberg, O. T., Despiégel, N., & Bandelow, B. (2006) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.v67n1111 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Manage Your Life Online: A Web-Based Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Problem-Solving Intervention in a Student Sample
Bird, T., Mansell, W., Wright, J., Gaffney, H., & Tai, S. (2018) · Behavioural and Cognitive Psychotherapy · doi:10.1017/s1352465817000820 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
The Naturalistic Course of Unipolar Major Depression in the Absence of Somatic Therapy
Posternak, M. A., Solomon, D. A., Leon, A. C., Mueller, T. I., Shea, M. T., Endicott, J., & Keller, M. B. (2006) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/01.nmd.0000217820.33841.53 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
“An estimate of the naturalistic course of depression in treatment-seeking individuals was put forth in a recent meta-analysis that evaluated the outcomes of depressed subjects who were randomized to a no-treatment control group (Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Benchmarks for psychotherapy efficacy in adult major depression.
Minami, T., Wampold, B. E., Serlin, R. C., Kircher, J. C., & Brown, G. S. (. (2007) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.75.2.232 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
“…Tang, & Simons, 1999; Dobson, 1989; Gaffan, Tsaousis, & Kemp-Wheeler, 1995; Gloaguen, Cottraux, Cucherat, & Blackburn, 1998; McCullough, 1999; Posternak & Miller, 2001; Robinson et al., 1990; Svartberg & Stiles, 1991; Thase et al., 1997; Wampold et al., 1997; Wampold, Minami, Baskin, &…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Animal models of depression: navigating through the clinical fog
Matthews, K., Christmas, D. M., Swan, J., & Sorrell, E. (2005) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2005.03.005 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
A Comprehensive Examination of Changes in Psychological Flexibility Following Acceptance and Commitment Therapy for Chronic Pain
Scott, W., Hann, K. E. J., & McCracken, L. M. (2016) · Journal of Contemporary Psychotherapy · doi:10.1007/s10879-016-9328-5 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
“…health questionnaire, depression module; CPAQ chronic pain acceptance questionnaire; CFQ cognitive fusion questionnaire; EQ experiences questionnaire; CAQ committed action questionnaire * p\ 0.05, ** p B 0.01 depression, may show a degree of spontaneous remission (Posternak and Miller 2001).”
BackgroundInfluential
Physicians' attitudes, diagnostic process and barriers regarding depression diagnosis in primary care: a systematic review of qualitative studies
Schumann, I., Schneider, A., Kantert, C., Löwe, B., & Linde, K. (2011) · Family Practice · doi:10.1093/fampra/cmr092 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Effectiveness of a Web-Based Cognitive Behavioural Intervention for Subthreshold Depression: Pragmatic Randomised Controlled Trial
Buntrock, C., Ebert, D. D., Lehr, D., Riper, H. M., Smit, F., Cuijpers, P. J., & Berking, M. (2015) · Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics · doi:10.1159/000438673 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Age and Sex as Moderators of the Placebo Response - An Evaluation of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses across Medicine
Weimer, K., Colloca, L., & Enck, P. (2014) · Gerontology · doi:10.1159/000365248 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Prompt mental health care, the Norwegian version of IAPT: clinical outcomes and predictors of change in a multicenter cohort study
Knapstad, M., Nordgreen, T., & Smith, O. R. F. (2018) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-018-1838-0 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Subchronic and mild social defeat stress accelerates food intake and body weight gain with polydipsia-like features in mice
Goto, T., Kubota, Y., Tanaka, Y., Iio, W., Moriya, N., & Toyoda, A. (2014) · Behavioural Brain Research · doi:10.1016/j.bbr.2014.05.040 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Short-Term Psychodynamic Psychotherapy and Fluoxetine in Major Depressive Disorder: A Randomized Comparative Study
Salminen, J. K., Karlsson, H., Hietala, J. A., Kajander, J., Aalto, S., Markkula, J., Rasi-Hakala, H., & Toikka, T. (2008) · Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics · doi:10.1159/000151388 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
The effect of waiting: a meta-analysis of wait-list control groups in trials for tinnitus distress
Hesser, H., Weise, C., Rief, W., & Andersson, G. (2011) · Journal of Psychosomatic Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychores.2010.12.006 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
“, positive expectation, therapeutic contact, the desire to please therapists) [14], the wait-list control does account for the natural passing of time and spontaneous remission [15].”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluential
A randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioral therapy, light therapy, and their combination for seasonal affective disorder.
Rohan, K. J., Roecklein, K. A., Tierney Lindsey, K., Johnson, L. G., Lippy, R. D., Lacy, T. J., & Barton, F. B. (2007) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-006x.75.3.489 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
The clinical epidemiology of depression in palliative care and the predictive value of somatic symptoms: Cross-sectional survey with four-week follow-up
Rayner, L., Lee, W. E., Price, A. C., Monroe, B., Sykes, N. P., Hansford, P., Higginson, I. J., & Hotopf, M. H. (2011) · Palliative Medicine · doi:10.1177/0269216310387458 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
“In UK primary care, for example, just 13% of patients with minor depression were found to have remitted after a month of watchful waiting,(63) and a meta-analysis of the course of major depression in wait-list control groups estimated that 20% of patients spontaneously remit.(64) The higher rate of remission in patien…”
Background
Assessment of psychiatric symptoms using the SCL-90
Holi, M. M. (2003) · Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja · Cited by 87 · see citing works
The Effects of Waiting for Treatment: A Meta‐Analysis of Waitlist Control Groups in Randomized Controlled Trials for Social Anxiety Disorder
Steinert, C., Stadter, K., Stark, R., & Leichsenring, F. (2017) · Clinical Psychology & Psychotherapy · doi:10.1002/cpp.2032 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Depressive Burden in the Preoperative and Early Recovery Phase Predicts Poorer Surgery Outcome Among Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients
Sinikallio, S., Aalto, T. J., Airaksinen, O., Herno, A., Kröger, H., & Viinamäki, H. T. (2009) · Spine · doi:10.1097/brs.0b013e3181b317bd · Cited by 86 · see citing works
“Baseline Factor Osw Median (24): No/Yes VAS Median (11): No/Yes Stucki Severity Median (2.”
Background
Two-week delay in onset of action of antidepressants: new evidence
Mitchell, A. J. (2006) · British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.105.011692 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Early response to psychological therapy as a predictor of depression and anxiety treatment outcomes: A systematic review and meta‐analysis
Beard, J. I. L., & Delgadillo, J. (2019) · Depression and Anxiety · doi:10.1002/da.22931 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
“%) of depression treatment trials (Posternak & Miller, 2001; Whiteford et al., 2013); hence the early response effect cannot simply be explained by spontaneous remission.”
Background
Contribution of spontaneous improvement to placebo response in depression: A meta-analytic review
Rutherford, B. R., Mori, S., Sneed, J. R., Pimontel, M. A., & Roose, S. P. (2012) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2012.02.008 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Randomized controlled trial of primary care physician motivational interviewing versus brief advice to engage adolescents with an Internet-based depression prevention intervention: 6-month outcomes and predictors of improvement.
Hoek, W., Marko, M., Fogel, J., Schuurmans, J., Gladstone, T., Bradford, N., Domanico, R., Fagan, B., Bell, C., Reinecke, M. A., et al. (2011) · Translational research · doi:10.1016/j.trsl.2011.07.006 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Metacognitive Therapy for Depression in Adults: A Waiting List Randomized Controlled Trial with Six Months Follow-Up
Hagen, R., Hjemdal, O., Solem, S., Kennair, L. E. O., Nordahl, H. M., Fisher, P., & Adrian Wells, A. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00031 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“We compared MCT with a waiting list control, since treatment studies do not take into account spontaneous remission in depression, as demonstrated by a mean decrease of 10–15% in depressive symptoms for waiting list control groups (Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Result
Influence of mirtazapine on plasma concentrations of neuroactive steroids in major depression and on 3α-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase activity
Schüle, C., Romeo, E., Uzunov, D. P., Eser, D., di Michele, F., Baghai, T. C., Pasini, A., Schwarz, M., Kempter, H., & Rupprecht, R. (2005) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/sj.mp.4001782 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Womenʼs Hearts—Stress Management for Women With Ischemic Heart Disease: EXPLANATORY ANALYSES OF A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL
Claesson, M., Birgander, L. S., Lindahl, B., Nasic, S., Åström, M., Asplund, K., & Burell, G. (2005) · Journal of Cardiopulmonary Rehabilitation · doi:10.1097/00008483-200503000-00009 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Effectiveness of the Thinking Healthy Programme for perinatal depression delivered through peers: Pooled analysis of two randomized controlled trials in India and Pakistan
Vanobberghen, F. M., Weiss, H. A., Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Afonso, E., Ahmad, I., Atif, N., Bibi, A., Bibi, T., Bilal, S., et al. (2019) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2019.11.110 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“This may be explained by the intervention design which puts emphasis on the first three months after child-birth by frontloading sessions antenatally and soon after childbirth, and/or by the natural remission rates of untreated depression over time (Austin et al., 2008; Posternak and Miller, 2001; Rojas et al., 2007;…”
Background
Non-treatment-related sudden gains in depression: The role of self-evaluation
Kelly, M. A. R., Roberts, J. E., & Bottonari, K. A. (2006) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2006.06.008 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Effectiveness of Prompt Mental Health Care, the Norwegian Version of Improving Access to Psychological Therapies: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Knapstad, M., Lervik, L. V., Sæther, S. M. M., Aarø, L. E., & Smith, O. R. F. (2019) · Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics · doi:10.1159/000504453 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
What is the short-term remission rate for people with untreated depression? A systematic review and meta-analysis
Mekonen, T., Ford, S., Chan, G., Hides, L. M., Connor, J. P., & Leung, J. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.046 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Folate Augmentation of Treatment – Evaluation for Depression (FolATED): randomised trial and economic evaluation
Bedson, E., Bell, D., Carr, D. F., Carter, B., Hughes, D. A., Jorgensen, A., Lewis, H., Lloyd, K. R., McCaddon, A., Moat, S. J., et al. (2014) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta18480 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Stability of the CORE‐OM and the BDI‐I prior to therapy: Evidence from routine practice
Barkham, M., Mullin, T., Leach, C., Stiles, W. B., & Lucock, M. P. (2006) · Psychology and Psychotherapy Theory Research and Practice · doi:10.1348/147608306x148048 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Evaluation of a spirituality informed e-mental health tool as an intervention for major depressive disorder in adolescents and young adults – a randomized controlled pilot trial
Rickhi, B., Kania‐Richmond, A., Moritz, S., Cohen, J., Paccagnan, P., Dennis, C., Liu, M., Malhotra, S., Steele, P., & Toews, J. (2015) · BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12906-015-0968-x · Cited by 57 · see citing works
“It is also a commonly used design in the evaluation of psychotherapeutic interventions for depression [30, 31].”
The nature of anxiety and depression: Implications for prevention.
Dozois, D. J. A., & Westra, H. A. (2004) · American Psychological Association eBooks · doi:10.1037/10722-002 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Cognitive–behavioural therapy and return-to-work intervention for patients on sick leave due to common mental disorders: a randomised controlled trial
Salomonsson, S., Santoft, F., Lindsäter, E., Ejeby, K., Ljótsson, B., Öst, L., Ingvar, M., Lekander, M., & Hedman‐Lagerlöf, E. (2017) · Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1136/oemed-2017-104342 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Molecular Autopsy for Sudden Unexpected Death
Torkamani, A., Muse, E. D., Spencer, E. G., Rueda, M., Wagner, G. N., Lucas, J. R., & Topol, E. J. (2016) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2016.11445 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Methodology and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies in psychiatric epidemiology: Systematic review
Brugha, T. S., Matthews, R. J., Morgan, Z., Hill, T., Alonso, J., & Jones, D. R. H. (2012) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.111.098103 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
The effectiveness of a body-affective mindfulness intervention for multiple sclerosis patients with depressive symptoms: A randomized controlled clinical trial
Carletto, S., Tesio, V., Borghi, M., Francone, D., Scavelli, F., Bertino, G., Malucchi, S., Bertolotto, A., Oliva, F., Torta, R., et al. (2017) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02083 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
“However, given that depressive symptoms can remit or reduce spontaneously (Posternak and Miller, 2001), it is possible that this occurred in the patients who dropped out, reducing the difference between the two interventions and masking the superior efficacy of the BAM that was found in the PP analysis.”
The implementation of computerized cognitive behavioural therapies in a service user-led, third sector self help clinic
Cavanagh, K., Seccombe, N., & Lidbetter, N. (2011) · Behavioural and Cognitive Psychotherapy · doi:10.1017/s1352465810000858 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“…evidence of relatively low rates of spontaneous remission in treatment seeking populations with chronic anxiety and persistent sub-threshold or mild-moderate depression (see Clark et al., 2009; Posternak and Miller, 2001), suggests that this kind of CCBT service delivers service-user beneﬁts.”
Background
Efficacy of narrative reformulation during cognitive analytic therapy for depression: Randomized dismantling trial
Kellett, S., Stockton, C., Marshall, H., Hall, J., Jennings, C., & Delgadillo, J. (2018) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2018.05.070 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
School-based humanistic counseling for psychological distress in young people: Pilot randomized controlled trial
McArthur, K., Cooper, M., & Berdondini, L. (2012) · Psychotherapy Research · doi:10.1080/10503307.2012.726750 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
“Waiting-list or delayed treatment control groups are used widely in psychotherapy research (e.g., Posternak and Miller, 2001) and, although they do not control for the impact of nonspecific therapy effects such as expectations, are an appropriate means of establishing preliminary evidence for the…”
Method
Early improvement and response to antidepressant medications in adults with major depressive disorder. Meta-analysis and study of a sample with treatment-resistant depression
Olgiati, P., Serretti, A., Souery, D., Dold, M., Kasper, S. F., Montgomery, S., Zohar, J., & Mendlewicz, J. (2017) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2017.11.004 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
The Effectiveness of Psychological Interventions Delivered in Routine Practice: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Gaskell, C., Simmonds‐Buckley, M., Kellett, S., Stockton, C., Somerville, E., Rogerson, E., & Delgadillo, J. (2022) · Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research · doi:10.1007/s10488-022-01225-y · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Exercise for Adolescents with Depressive Disorders: A Feasibility Study
Dopp, R. R., Mooney, A. J., Armitage, R., & King, C. A. (2012) · Depression Research and Treatment · doi:10.1155/2012/257472 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Personality Change following Internet-Based Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Severe Health Anxiety
Hedman‐Lagerlöf, E., Andersson, G., Lindefors, N., Gustavsson, P. J., Lekander, M., Rück, C., Andersson, E., & Ljótsson, B. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113871 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
“This trait-like aspect of anxiety disorders was pointed out in a recent review by Brandes and Bienvenu [19] and it is likely that severe health anxiety differs in this regard compared to for example depression, which tends to fluctuate spontaneously to a larger extent [56].”
Background
Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for anxiety and depression in adults with mild intellectual disabilities (ID): a pilot randomised controlled trial
Hassiotis, A., Serfaty, M. A., Azam, K., Strydom, A., Martin, S., Parkes, C., Blizard, R., & King, M. (2011) · Trials · doi:10.1186/1745-6215-12-95 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Gamma oscillation in functional brain networks is involved in the spontaneous remission of depressive behavior induced by chronic restraint stress in mice
Khalid, A., Kim, B. S., Seo, B. A., Lee, S., Jung, K., Chu, K., Lee, S. K., & Jeon, D. (2016) · BMC Neuroscience · doi:10.1186/s12868-016-0239-x · Cited by 41 · see citing works
A Randomized Controlled Trial of Metacognitive Therapy for Depression: Analysis of 1-Year Follow-Up
Hjemdal, O., Solem, S., Hagen, R., Kennair, L. E. O., Nordahl, H. M., & Adrian Wells, A. (2019) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2019.01842 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Barriers to Mental Health Service Use Among Workers With Depression and Work Productivity
Dewa, C. S., & Hoch, J. S. (2015) · Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1097/jom.0000000000000472 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
A randomised controlled trial of memory flexibility training (MemFlex) to enhance memory flexibility and reduce depressive symptomatology in individuals with major depressive disorder
Hitchcock, C., Gormley, S., Rees, C., Rodrigues, E., Gillard, J., Panesar, I., Wright, I. M., Hammond, E. R., Watson, P., Werner‐Seidler, A., et al. (2018) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2018.08.008 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
There’s More to Placebo-Related Improvement Than the Placebo Effect Alone
Andrade, C. (2012) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.12f08124 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
GETTING STUCK IN THE BLUES: PERSISTENCE OF MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS IN AUSTRALIA
Roy, J., & Schurer, S. (2013) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.2967 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
“Most untreated cases are estimated to be resolved before three months (Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Background
Symptom improvement and remission in untreated adults seeking treatment for obsessive-compulsive disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Melkonian, M., McDonald, S., Scott, A. J., Karin, E., Dear, B. F., & Wootton, B. M. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.08.037 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
The natural history of subjective tinnitus in adults: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of no‐intervention periods in controlled trials
Phillips, J. S., McFerran, D. J., Hall, D. A., & Hoare, D. J. (2017) · The Laryngoscope · doi:10.1002/lary.26607 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
“This finding contradicts that of a study by Posternak and Miller (2001), which looked at mental health conditions in isolation and found improvement while on waiting-list control groups.(4) It is possible that the null findings in the current study simply represent the relatively low number of tinnitus studies that ha…”
Result
fMRI Neurofeedback-Enhanced Cognitive Reappraisal Training in Depression: A Double-Blind Comparison of Left and Right vlPFC Regulation
Keller, M., Zweerings, J., Klasen, M., Zvyagintsev, M., Iglesias, J., Mendoza-Quiñones, R., & Mathiak, K. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2021.715898 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
“Importantly, the observed clinical improvements in the current study, cannot be directly attributed to specific NF effects due to the nature of the cross-over design; in particular, we cannot differentiate effects of left and right vlPFC NF, the reappraisal training, placebo [see (67)] as well as time passed (116).”
Background
Effectiveness of guided Internet-delivered treatment for major depression in routine mental healthcare - An open study
Nordgreen, T., Blom, K., Andersson, G., Carlbring, P., & Havik, O. E. (2019) · Internet Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.invent.2019.100274 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
“This is a significant limitation as depression is a disorder characterised by fluctuations and does not show a more stable and chronic course as seen in anxiety disorders such as social anxiety disorder (Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Background
Efficacy and feasibility of a humor training for people suffering from depression, anxiety, and adjustment disorder: a randomized controlled trial
Tagalidou, N., Distlberger, E., Loderer, V., & Laireiter, A. (2019) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-019-2075-x · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Does pretreatment testing for serotonin transporter polymorphisms lead to earlier effects of drug treatment in patients with major depression? A decision-analytic model
Smits, K. M., Smits, L. J. M., Schouten, J., Peeters, F. P. M. L., & Prins, M. H. (2007) · Clinical Therapeutics · doi:10.1016/j.clinthera.2007.04.018 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Representation of mental illness in Christian self-help bestsellers
Webb, M., Stetz, K., & Hedden, K. R. (2008) · Mental Health Religion & Culture · doi:10.1080/13674670801978634 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
“Even in the absence of professional treatment, research has suggested that some individuals can recover from an episode of depression simply as a function of time (Posternak, 2001).”
Background
Depression contributed an unsatisfactory surgery outcome among the posterior decompression of the cervical spondylotic myelopathy patients: a prospective clinical study
Zong, Y., Xue, Y., Zhao, Y., Ding, H., He, D., Li, Z., Tang, Y., & Wang, Y. (2014) · Neurological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s10072-014-1714-8 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Cost-Effectiveness of Escitalopram versus Citalopram in the Treatment of Severe Depression
Hemels, M. E. H., Kasper, S. F., Walter, E., & Einarson, T. R. (2004) · Annals of Pharmacotherapy · doi:10.1345/aph.1e010 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Effects of an integrative treatment, therapeutic acupuncture and conventional treatment in alleviating psychological distress in primary care patients - a pragmatic randomized controlled trial
Arvidsdotter, T., Marklund, B. R. G., & Taft, C. (2013) · BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine · doi:10.1186/1472-6882-13-308 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
“given that many patients experience spontaneous resolution of their symptoms over time [26].”
Background
Regional brain metabolic correlates of self-reported depression severity contrasted with clinician ratings
Milak, M. S., Keilp, J., Parsey, R. V., Oquendo, M. A., Malone, K. M., & Mann, J. J. (2010) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2010.03.002 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“, 2004), responds more slowly to antidepressant treatment (Adda et al., 1997; Ambrosini et al., 1999; Posternak and Miller, 2001; Thase et al., 1991), and is a stronger predictor of suicide attempts (Grunebaum et al.”
Social inequalities in the demand, supply and utilisation of psychological treatment
Delgadillo, J., Farnfield, A., & North, A. (2018) · Counselling and Psychotherapy Research · doi:10.1002/capr.12169 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“Previous studies have estimated that approximately 20% of cases diagnosed with major depression randomised to waitlist control groups tend to experience spontaneous remission of symptoms without psychological treatment (Posternak & Miller, 2001).”
Background
A meta‐analytic review of the effectiveness of psychological treatment of functional/dissociative seizures on non‐seizure outcomes in adults
Gaskell, C., Power, N., Nováková, B., Simmonds‐Buckley, M., Reuber, M., Kellett, S., & Rawlings, G. H. (2023) · Epilepsia · doi:10.1111/epi.17626 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Review of the choice and use of antidepressant drugs
Bleakley, S. (2013) · Progress in Neurology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/pnp.311 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Work-focused therapy for common mental disorders: A naturalistic study comparing an intervention group with a waitlist control group
Gjengedal, R. G. H., Rème, S. E., Osnes, K., Lagerfeld, S. E., Blonk, R. W. B., Sandin, K., Berge, T., & Hjemdal, O. (2020) · Work · doi:10.3233/wor-203208 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“14), consistent with previous findings of greater symptom fluctuations in depressive disorders than in anxiety disorders [56, 57].”
Result
A randomized controlled trial of combined exercise and psycho-education for low-SES women: Short- and long-term outcomes in the reduction of stress and depressive symptoms
van der Waerden, J. E. B., Hoefnagels, C., Hosman, C. M. H., Souren, P. M., & Jansen, M. W. J. (2013) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.05.015 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“In their meta-analysis of waiting list controls, Posternak and Miller (2001) suggested that the effect of seeking treatment and obtaining a thorough evaluation in the context of research in itself may very well cause an increased remission rate in depressive symptomatology.”
Background
Recovery From Depressive Symptoms Over the Course of Physical Therapy: A Prospective Cohort Study of Individuals With Work-Related Orthopaedic Injuries and Symptoms of Depression
Wideman, T. H., Scott, W., Martel, M. O., & Sullivan, M. J. L. (2012) · Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy · doi:10.2519/jospt.2012.4182 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Efficacy of psychodynamic short-term psychotherapy for depressed breast cancer patients: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial
Zwerenz, R., Beutel, M. E., Imruck, B. H., Wiltink, J., Haselbacher, A., Ruckes, C., Schmidberger, H., Hoffmann, G., Schmidt, M., Köhler, U., et al. (2012) · BMC Cancer · doi:10.1186/1471-2407-12-578 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“For STPP of depression remission rates between 45% and 70% at post-therapy assessment were published [26], while remission rates in primary-care settings (comparable to TAU) ranged between 20% and about 50% (6 months) [27-29].”
Background
Something's got to give: psychiatric disease on the rise and novel drug development on the decline
Chandler, D. J. (2012) · Drug Discovery Today · doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2012.08.003 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
For whom are internet-based occupational mental health interventions effective? Moderators of internet-based problem-solving training outcome
Junge, M. N., Lehr, D., Bockting, C., Berking, M., Riper, H. M., Cuijpers, P. J., & Ebert, D. D. (2014) · Internet Interventions · doi:10.1016/j.invent.2014.11.007 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Moreover, it has been demonstrated that even if untreated, depressive symptoms will improve (Lynch et al., 2004; Posternak and Miller, 2001).”
Depressive symptoms predict postoperative disability among patients with lumbar spinal stenosis: A two-year prospective study comparing two age groups
Sinikallio, S., Aalto, T. J., Lehto, S. M., Airaksinen, O., Herno, A., Kröger, H., & Viinamäki, H. T. (2010) · Disability and Rehabilitation · doi:10.3109/09638280903171477 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“It is known that clinical depression does not recover adequately without appropriate treatment, although short-term depressive symptomatology can be expected to decrease 10–15% without treatment [27].”
Background
Effects of bright light therapy for depression during pregnancy: a randomised, double-blind controlled trial
Bais, B., Kamperman, A. M., Bijma, H. H., Hoogendijk, W. J., Souman, J. L., Knijff, E., & Lambregtse-van den Berg, M. P. (2020) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038030 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Efficacy of a Brief Blended Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Program for the Treatment of Depression and Anxiety in University Students: Uncontrolled Intervention Study
Atik, E., Stricker, J. H., Schückes, M., & Pittig, A. (2023) · JMIR Mental Health · doi:10.2196/44742 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Depressive symptoms during rehabilitation period predict poor outcome of lumbar spinal stenosis surgery: A two-year perspective
Sinikallio, S., Lehto, S. M., Aalto, T. J., Airaksinen, O., Kröger, H., & Viinamäki, H. T. (2010) · BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders · doi:10.1186/1471-2474-11-152 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“However, it is known that normal clinical depression does not adequately recover without appropriate treatment, although in the short-term, depressive symptomatology has been found to decrease by 10-15% without treatment [33].”
Background
Recovery from depression among clients transitioning out of poverty.
Ali, A., Hawkins, R. L., & Chambers, D. A. (2010) · American Journal of Orthopsychiatry · doi:10.1111/j.1939-0025.2010.01004.x · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Testing the Analytical Rumination Hypothesis: Exploring the Longitudinal Effects of Problem Solving Analysis on Depression
Ševčíková, M., Maslej, M. M., Štipl, J., Andrews, P. W., Paštrnák, M., Věchetová, G., Bartošková, M., & Preiss, M. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01344 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
A randomized controlled trial on a self-guided Internet-based intervention for gambling problems
Bücker, L., Gehlenborg, J., Moritz, S., & Westermann, S. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-92242-8 · Cited by 21 · see citing works

Contribution of spontaneous improvement to placebo response in depression: A meta-analytic review
Rutherford, B. R., Mori, S., Sneed, J. R., Pimontel, M. A., & Roose, S. P. (2012) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2012.02.008 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
What is the short-term remission rate for people with untreated depression? A systematic review and meta-analysis
Mekonen, T., Ford, S., Chan, G., Hides, L. M., Connor, J. P., & Leung, J. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.046 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Short-Term Spontaneous Improvement Rates in Depressed Outpatients
Posternak, M. A., & Zimmerman, M. A. (2000) · The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/00005053-200012000-00002 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citation
Symptômes résiduels et risques de récidives dépressives
Bismuth, S. (2007) · L Encéphale · doi:10.1016/s0013-7006(07)92902-4
Natural Course and Placebo Response in Short-Term, Placebo-Controlled Studies in Major Depression: A Meta-Analysis of Published and Non-published Studies
Storosum, J. G., Elferink, A. J. A., van Zwieten, B. J., van den Brink, W., & Huyser, J. (2004) · Pharmacopsychiatry · doi:10.1055/s-2004-815472 · Cited by 18 · see citing works

Authors: Posternak, M. A., & Miller, I.
Affiliations: Brown University (US)
Corresponding author: Posternak, Michael A.
ORCID: Miller, Ivan
Venue: Journal of Affective Disorders
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2001-10
Volume: 66
Issue: 2-3
Pages: 139-146
ISSN: 0165-0327 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/s0165-0327(00)00304-9
OpenAlex: W2006252753
Cited by: 215
References: 65
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 19
FWCI: 0.40
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Journal of Affective Disorders (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Treatment of Major Depression
Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychotherapy Techniques and Applications
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
Keywords: untreated depression, major depressive disorder, spontaneous regression, waitlist control, outpatients, placebo response
MeSH terms: Adult, Major Depressive Disorder, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Psychotherapy, Brief, Waiting Lists, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Benchmarking

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

Untreated short-term course of major depression: a meta-analysis of outcomes from studies using wait-list control groups

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks